Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 6, which kicked off Thursday with the 49ers at the Seahawks.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Jump to:
JAX-CHI | ARI-GB | IND-TEN | HOU-NE | TB-NO | CLE-PHI
WAS-BAL | LAC-DEN | PIT-LV | DET-DAL | ATL-CAR | CIN-NYG | BUF-NYJ
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
Projected Score: Bears 24, Jaguars 20
Lineup locks: D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne Jr., DJ Moore, Brian Thomas Jr.
Tank Bigsby exploded for 129 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 and now has 90-plus yards in consecutive games. Despite the success, the second-year back is not yet a safe fantasy start. Bigsby has yet to clear 14 touches in any game (a number he reached Sunday with Etienne limited by injury) and had a grand total of nine touches during Weeks 3-4. Bigsby has played on only 22% of Jacksonville's snaps for the season and his passing-game role is nonexistent (one target). Unless Etienne misses time, Bigsby is best left on benches.
Over/Under: 43.5 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 63% (6th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers
Projected Score: Packers 24, Cardinals 21
Lineup locks: Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Josh Jacobs, James Conner, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft
With Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson both out last week, the Packers' WR deployment was as follows: Reed (44 snaps, 6 targets), Dontayvion Wicks (44, 7), Malik Heath (44, 3) and Bo Melton (29, 2). Reed was the only one to produce more than 5.0 fantasy points, and Wicks failed to produce in a terrific matchup against the Rams. Especially with Doubs likely to return this week, Wicks (who leads the NFL with six drops) will make for a risky flex. It's possible Doubs gets the "squeaky wheel" treatment, but considering he's yet to find the end zone or clear 9.2 fantasy points in any game this season, he's best valued as a fringe WR3.
Over/Under: 44.8 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 63% (7th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Projected Score: Colts 22, Titans 19
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, Josh Downs
With Taylor sidelined last week, Trey Sermon paced the Colts' backfield in snaps (40), carries (10) and targets (6). Tyler Goodson actually led the backfield in routes (20) and added five carries and three targets on 29 snaps. The usage was about as expected and confirms that, if Taylor remains out, Sermon will be the preferred flex option of the two. The Titans haven't been as dominant as usual against backs this season, though they're still allowing a 3.4 yards per carry (third lowest).
Over/Under: 40.6 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 59% (10th highest)
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Projected Score: Texans 24, Patriots 15
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell
Nico Collins went down after nine snaps, Sunday and the Texans' WR deployment otherwise was as follows: Diggs (58 snaps, 8 targets), Xavier Hutchinson (47, 3), Dell (46, 4), Robert Woods (16, 0) and John Metchie III (3, 0). With Collins now on IR, Diggs is a "no doubter" lineup lock and Dell should be started as well. The second-year receiver is off to a slow start (under 12.0 fantasy points in all four games), but he's in for a larger workload and we saw his upside in 2023 when he produced six 20-plus fantasy point games. Hutchinson is next in line, but his 5.1 fantasy points Sunday marked a career high. He's best left on waivers.
Over/Under: 38.4 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 80% (Highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Projected Score: Buccaneers 23, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
We have seen a value shift for Saints wide receivers -- at least prior to Derek Carr's multiweek injury. Rashid Shaheed had suddenly become a better and safer fantasy option than Chris Olave. Shaheed has already produced four top-25 fantasy outings, whereas Olave has more games with fewer than 6.0 points (2) than he has top-20 outings (1). That production doesn't appear to be a fluke, as Shaheed holds edges of 33-29 in targets, 5-1 in carries and 562-277 in air yards.
Under normal circumstances, Shaheed would be a WR2 and Olave (who, to his credit, has three 80-plus yard games) would be a fringe top-20 option. However, both fall out of "lineup lock" status and into the flex conversation with Carr sidelined.
Over/Under: 41.3 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 65% (5th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Score: Eagles 24, Browns 17
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith
Amari Cooper is a borderline lineup lock, but doesn't quite make the cut. The veteran receiver has cleared 10.0 fantasy points just once this season, which is a bit alarming considering he leads the league in air yards and has seen eight-plus targets in all five games. Efficiency is the issue here, as an unfathomable 45% of balls thrown his way have been off target, which has led to an atrocious 43% catch rate and 4.4 yards per target. Cooper, who sits third in targets but 49th in yards, is nonetheless a WR3 play in a good matchup against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fourth-most WR fantasy PPG.
Over/Under: 40.7 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 75% (3rd highest)
Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens
Projected Score: Ravens 28, Commanders 27
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Derrick Henry, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers
Austin Ekeler has been exceptional, averaging 7.9 yards per carry and 13.7 yards per target. Granted the sample size is small (19 carries, 11 targets), but both of those marks rank at or near the best from the position. Ekeler's efficiency is notable, but the limited volume (7.5 touches per game) has led to him scoring between 10.2-13.7 fantasy points in all four outings. As long as Robinson is healthy, Ekeler will be bench material, especially this week against a Baltimore defense that has allowed 2.9 yards per carry (second lowest) and the second-fewest yards to RBs.
Over/Under: 54.5 (Highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 52% (13th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Projected Score: Broncos 17, Chargers 14
Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins
The Chargers' slow-moving, low-volume, run-heavy offense has limited the output of its top skill players, but Ladd McConkey's 26% target share has been enough to keep him fantasy relevant. The rookie has yet to clear seven targets in any game, but he's found the end zone twice and was a top-20 scoring fantasy WR in both of those weeks. McConkey will have his hands full this week with a Denver defense that has allowed the second-fewest WR fantasy points. However, if there's a silver lining, it's that he generally aligns in the slot and will thus avoid Pat Surtain II throughout a majority of the game. McConkey is a flex option.
Over/Under: 31.6 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 61% (8th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Projected Score: Steelers 23, Raiders 17
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, George Pickens, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
With Zamir White sidelined last week, the Raiders rolled with a two-man backfield committee. Alexander Mattison handled 15 carries and three targets on 37 snaps, while Ameer Abdullah managed five carries and three targets on 28 snaps. Abdullah found the end zone and both players cleared double-digit fantasy points, but even if White remains sidelined, a repeat performance is unlikely. The Steelers' defense has allowed two touchdowns and 3.6 yards per carry (fourth lowest) to RBs this season. If called on for another start, Mattison will be no more than a flex option.
Over/Under: 40.7 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 71% (4th highest)
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Projected Score: Lions 27, Cowboys 24
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jake Ferguson, Sam LaPorta
Rico Dowdle posted the best fantasy game of his career last Sunday night, hitting highs in carries (20), touches (22), scrimmage yards (114) and fantasy points (19.4). Dowdle played on a career-high 51% of Dallas' offensive snaps and has now out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott 94-46 over the past three weeks. Dowdle is still a part-time player and has just one career game with more than 13 touches, so we shouldn't get too excited here. Still, he's clearly taking control of lead back duties and has found the end zone in consecutive games. Consider Dowdle to be a RB2/flex option in a tough Week 6 battle with a Lions defense that has allowed the fewest yards and third-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season.
Over/Under: 50.3 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Lions 60% (9th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Score: Falcons 27, Panthers 20
Lineup locks: Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, Drake London, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney
Mooney may seem like a surprise lineup lock, but good luck benching a player who just produced a 9-105-2 receiving line on 16 targets and now sits 15th among wideouts in fantasy points this season. Mooney isn't a one-game wonder either, having now seen six-plus targets in four consecutive games, producing 14-plus fantasy points in three of those outings. Mooney has played on 97% of Atlanta's snaps and his 40 targets (24% share) trail London by only five for the team lead. Lock Mooney in against a Carolina defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to perimeter receivers over the last four weeks.
Over/Under: 47.2 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 75% (2nd highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
Projected Score: Bengals 24, Giants 24
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Malik Nabers, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Wan'Dale Robinson
With Devin Singletary sidelined last week, Tyrone Tracy Jr. was the main man in the New York backfield. The rookie played on 62% of snaps and totaled 18 carries and two targets, compared to four carries and four targets on 26 snaps for Eric Gray. Whereas Gray fumbled on one of his seven touches (which led to a reduced role), Tracy exploded for 130 yards on 19 touches. Should Singletary miss Week 6, Tracy can be viewed as a flex option. Gray should be on benches/waivers.
Over/Under: 48.6 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 50% (14th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Projected Score: Bills 22, Jets 20
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Breece Hall, James Cook, Garrett Wilson, Dalton Kincaid
With Khalil Shakir sidelined last week, Buffalo's WR usage was as follows: Keon Coleman (38 snaps, 5 targets), Curtis Samuel (34, 4), Mack Hollins (33, 6), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (26, 3) and Tyrell Shavers (16, 0). Coleman hit for a 49-yard touchdown, but that was the rookie's lone reception. In fact, the only other Bills receiver to catch a pass was Hollins (two receptions for 27 yards). Even if Shakir returns this week, this is a WR room to avoid with the Jets' elite pass defense (third-fewest yards and sixth-fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs) on tap.
Over/Under: 41.5 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 57% (11th highest)