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          Solak's Week 2 NFL picks: Eagles fly, Bengals' offense struggles

          • Ben SolakSep 13, 2024, 07:42 AM ET
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              Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.

          Welcome to Week 2! It's always so challenging to consume the results of Week 1 without overreacting (Atlanta Falcons season over! Caleb Williams bust! New Orleans Saints to the Super Bowl!), but we can do it. The Houston Texans lost by 16 in Week 1 last season. Josh Allen lost to the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets. Weird things happen.

          And weird things will happen in Week 2 as well! I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each -- and a few more lines and props I'm targeting at the bottom of the page.

          All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.

          Jump to:
          Week 1 recap | Bengals-Chiefs | Rams-Cardinals | Falcons-Eagles | Quick hits and SGP

          Week 1 recap

          Three games got the long preview treatment last week: Texans-Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys-Cleveland Browns and Jets-San Francisco 49ers. The first two went exactly as expected. Big plays produced points in the AFC South, and Dallas dominated Cleveland on both sides of the ball. And while the Jets' offense struggled as expected in San Francisco, eight scoring drives for the 49ers was quite the surprise against a typically stout Jets defense. I forgot to adjust by a factor of Jordan Mason.

          On listed bets: A profitable first week! We were good on sides and totals, but shakier on props. CeeDee Lamb had 58 yards on his 80-yard prop by halftime, but with the Cowboys nursing a big lead in Cleveland, he saw only shallow third-down targets the rest of the way and ended at 61 receiving yards (UNDER). Both Tony Pollard (four targets) and Rhamondre Stevenson (three targets) got the volume we were looking for in the passing game, but neither was able to pick up the requisite yardage to get home. I wouldn't be surprised if we're back to the well on those players at some point later this season.

          Overall: 5-5 (50%), +0.72 units
          Props: 2-3 (40%), -0.85 units
          Totals: 2-1 (66%), +0.82 units
          Sides: 1-0, +0.95 units
          Same-Game Parlay: 0-1, -0.2 units

          Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 48.5)

          Count me among those worried about Joe Burrow's wrist injury. I was in Cincinnati this year for training camp, and he didn't look right then, and he doesn't look right now. I don't care so much about weird water bottle lifting as I do the constant flexing of his wrist and the heat map -- Burrow attempted only three passes more than 10 yards downfield in Week 1 against the New England Patriots. I thought the routes he was not willing to throw were rather glaring. Here's a third-and-10 with the game on the line: Burrow has a one-on-one outside with no prayer of safety help, and he throws a dead-in-the-water checkdown that forces fourth down and a game-losing punt.

          I anticipate Burrow's hand health being more of a short-term than long-term issue, which is good news in Cincinnati. Burrow tends to start seasons slowly and in particular has had poor Septembers, as he has, unfortunately but consistently, dealt with nagging injury in the summer months.

          The problem is the Bengals are playing the Chiefs in the short term, this Sunday, at Arrowhead Stadium. Maybe the Bengals would look a little better and get the ball a little further downfield were wide receiver Tee Higgins returning to the lineup, but he hasn't practiced yet this week. Maybe the passing game could funnel through Ja'Marr Chase, but he still hasn't been paid, so I'm not sure the vibes there are great.

          The only reinforcement apparently on the way is rookie right tackle Amarius Mims, who should start over Trent Brown, who struggled in Week 1. But a rookie tackle making his first career start in hostile territory is not enough of a needle-mover for me to expect a big Week 2 improvement from the Bengals' offense.

          Of course, Burrow and the Bengals sculpted their legend in 2021 when, en route to a Super Bowl appearance, they beat Mahomes and the Chiefs not once, but twice -- and then again the following season! Those head-to-head victories made the Bengals out as the Chiefs' best foil in the AFC -- Burrow, the lone quarterback who could duel with Mahomes for four quarters, and coordinator Lou Anarumo's Bengals defense, the lone unit that could slow Mahomes down.

          The Burrow thing is largely mythmaking, and I don't think he's nearly the player now that he was then. Anarumo against Mahomes is far more interesting, and it requires a couple layers of peeling to get to the root of their contest. At the surface, you don't see much. In Mahomes' five career games against Anarumo's defense, he has largely been just about as good as he has been against a league-average defense.

          Of course, the one stat that does stand out is that time to throw. Anarumo's greatest strength as a defensive coordinator is his ability to make quarterbacks hold the ball for just an extra tick, giving the pass rush another precious moment to get home.

          But if you look at each game, Anarumo is actually gaining steam on Mahomes. Mahomes' success rate has gone down in each game he has played against the Bengals. His air yards per attempt is falling, and he's increasingly relying on yards after the catch (YAC) accordingly. His pressure rate is climbing, and in order to keep his sack rate low, he has to get rid of the ball underneath. This is a direct reaction to Anarumo's blanket style of patient zone coverage; the longer Mahomes holds the ball, the more pressure he invites, but Anarumo's defense rarely gives up busted coverages downfield.

          Now, this entire change in Mahomes' play style isn't attributed to Anarumo alone. Some of this is the nature of the changing offense in Kansas City. Mahomes was already throwing shallower passes and relying more on YAC far before he ran into Anarumo last season. But that's the magic of Mahomes -- he's willing to change his style to counter the league's best defensive coaches. Even as a defensive coordinator with a reputation for playing him well figures out more ways to generate pressure and force the ball underneath, Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense continues to succeed, albeit, not as explosively as they have in the past.

          Last year, it was with the running game. Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco had 130 yards on 18 carries against Cincinnati, including runs of 37 and 35 yards. As many resources as Anarumo must dedicate to solving the Mahomes problem, he must take away from the run defense, which suffered mightily last season, especially against the Chiefs. That trend seems to be continuing this season, as the Bengals were manhandled in the trenches against an average Patriots offensive line (RB Rhamondre Stevenson had 25 carries for 120 yards, including runs of 17, 16 and 14 yards).

          The Bengals' penchant for giving up explosive runs (they were fifth worst in the league in runs of 10-plus yards surrendered last season and have made no meaningful additions to the defensive front seven since) is why I'm looking at Pacheco to rip off a big run (or two, or three), especially as the Chiefs run the ball to protect rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia from spending too much time in pass protection against star Cincinnati edge rusher Trey Hendrickson.

          The bet: Isiah Pacheco longest rush OVER 14.5 yards (-125)

          With the expected success of the Chiefs' rushing attack, Anarumo's history of flustering Mahomes just a little bit and the concerns I have with the Bengals' offense, I'm strongly leaning to the under here.

          I'd be a little more concerned by the absence of ex-Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, who shadowed Chase with great success last year, were Chase 100% mentally and physically bought in to playing football at this time. The absence of Higgins is another big deal. With him off the field, expect Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to press Chase with Trent McDuffie and cloud a safety in Chase's direction, challenging any other Bengals receiver to beat him.

          Short of some turnover heaviness, which is very possible from a limited Burrow and a frustrated Mahomes, I think we're safe, even without the key number of 49.

          The bet: UNDER 49.5 (-115)

          Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 47.5)

          While Rams-Cardinals might not look like a marquee matchup on paper, this is one of only a few Week 2 spreads within a field goal. And that spread got even tighter this week! Largely as a result of concerning Rams injury news, this line has moved from Rams -2.5 to Cardinals -1, and the total has moved down from 49.5 to 47.5.

          A quick summary on the Rams' injury situation: Wide receiver Puka Nacua was placed on injured reserve this week because of an injury to the same knee that made him miss time in camp. Starting guard Steve Avila was also placed on IR this week with a knee injury, as was swing tackle Joe Noteboom (ankle). Noteboom was in line to start this week, as starting left tackle Alaric Jackson is serving out the second of a two-game PED suspension. So that's one, two, three offensive linemen certainly out for Week 2 against the Cardinals, with starting guard Kevin Dotson also day-to-day because of an ankle injury. Dotson did not practice Wednesday, while starting right tackle Rob Havenstein was limited by a foot injury.

          Got all that?

          As the Rams' offensive linemen dropped like flies against the Lions in Week 1, somehow quarterback Matthew Stafford still survived -- still thrived, even! Stafford went 34-for-49 for 317 passing yards and a score, and if not for a bad pick in the end zone, he very well could have thrown his way into an improbable road win. Well, that and all the offensive injuries, which made this passing attack very predictable. With Nacua down and quick targets his only option, Stafford funneled the ball to Cooper Kupp, who became just the 10th player in NFL history to accumulate 21-plus single-game targets while over the age of 30. (It's hard for fogies to deal with that much volume, even if it is Week 1!)

          Figuring out the new passing game distribution in Los Angeles is a big deal both for bettors and the Cardinals, who would not be wrong to just double-cover Kupp on every single snap and force someone else to beat them in the passing game. But that's an enormous challenge, as head coach Sean McVay puts Kupp in motion more than just about any other player in the league. Against the Lions in Week 1, Kupp had 12 touches off 42 motion snaps. Both are records in the Next Gen Stats database, which goes back to 2016.

          There isn't really a schematic solution to this problem. The Rams are going to run Kupp into free releases, and you can't chase him in man coverage (he'll beat you to the spot, and now you have to tackle him on the run), pass him off to waiting defenders (because they have too many moving parts and your communication isn't that good) or zone everything off (because Stafford will shred you from the pocket). As always, the best solution on the defensive side of the ball is the simplest one: Pressure the quarterback.

          The Cardinals do not have a great pass rush, but if the Rams are forced to play a third-string left tackle and two more backups along the offensive line, they will not be able to sustain long Stafford dropbacks without surrendering hits. I would imagine, to protect that offensive line, the Rams will also try to rely more on the running game, which was quiet against a stout Detroit Lions front but should find much more success in Arizona.

          If we're expecting quick dropbacks from Stafford, a heavy dose of the running game to protect the offensive line and the potential for passing game issues as the Cardinals do whatever they can to remove Kupp from the game plan and force the rest of the pass catchers to beat them, then I know what prop I like for this matchup.

          The bet: Matthew Stafford UNDER 249.5 passing yards

          The Cardinals are a team I'm watching very closely in the early weeks of this season, as I have a suspicion that they're better than we think they are. I took this line when it was Cardinals +2, and I think the -1 is far more appropriately priced.

          The Cardinals should be able to run the ball on just about everyone, with an underrated offensive line, a bruising back in James Conner and the ever-present threat of a Kyler Murray keeper. That should especially be the expectation against a Rams team that got decimated on the ground by the Lions. Of the 31 carries the Rams faced in Week 1, they held precisely two for 0 or fewer yards (third worst of Week 1). They surrendered a success rate of 67.7%, the highest of Week 1.

          I think you're going to see both teams run the ball well for most of the game. But well enough to get over 47.5 points? Again, I liked it better at 49.5, but I'm still willing to take the under at 47.5 points. The clock should run and run and run in this game, and so long as we get a few defensive stops in the red zone, we should see time expire before 48 points can be collectively reached.

          The bet: UNDER 47.5 (-110)

          One final note: I am begging everyone to remain calm on Marvin Harrison Jr. after his debut performance against the Buffalo Bills (32 routes, 3 targets, 1 catch for 4 yards). More concerning perhaps than the production is the tracking data: Harrison's top speed of 16.7 mph is 1,699th in 1,730 games for wide receivers since the start of the 2023 season.

          It is important to remember three things, in this exact order: First, it was Week 1 of the NFL season. Rookies tend to have bad performances. Performance is not at all predictive. The sample is tiny.

          Second, Harrison is not like other top drafted receivers to take the league by storm in recent years. Harrison is 6-foot-3, 210 pounds. He was comped most frequently to A.J. Green coming out of college. The NFL is increasingly a speed league, of course, and everyone loves watching Chase, Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk leave defenders in the dust. But Harrison, who is a smooth separator and preposterous catch-point athlete, will not be a high speed guy until the ball gets in his hands (which did not happen Sunday but will happen soon, I promise). And then, when he does get the chance to turn on the jets? He has more than enough gears.

          And third: Again, it was Week 1! Everyone take a deep breath.

          Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 47.5)

          I don't think there was a more worrying debut than that of the Falcons. Their front seven struggled physically against a Pittsburgh Steelers rushing attack that wasn't trying to hide its intentions for four quarters. Even A.J. Terrell, the rightfully extended star cornerback, had a tough day with George Pickens across from him.

          And then, offensively? Goodness gracious. Kirk Cousins, as I detailed in my Tuesday column, has never played a game in which he was more limited. He barely moved in the pocket, never got under center and never even attempted a play-action pass -- that at which he has been so good for a decade now in the NFL!

          It is easy to overreact to poor Week 1 performances. (See: the Chicago Bears as a touchdown underdog to the Texans, or the Carolina Panthers as 6-point 'dogs at home to the Los Angeles Chargers.) In most cases, I'm looking to fade Week 1 overreactions and buy low in Week 2. But in the case of the Falcons, I do think the sky is falling a little bit, and I'm chasing the dip.

          The bet: Eagles -6.5 (-115)

          The significant matchup of this game isn't centered on Cousins, but rather on the Eagles' rushing attack against this Falcons defense. The Eagles started two new offensive linemen in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers: center Cam Jurgens, tasked with the impossible challenge of replacing Jason Kelce; and guard Mekhi Becton, kicking in from his career-long position of tackle in his first season in Philadelphia. Both impressed me, as did back Saquon Barkley, who cast aside the yoke of the New York Giants and scored three touchdowns in his liberation debut in Brazil.

          Watch Barkley in Week 1 push the line of scrimmage and pull Packers LB Quay Walker (7) into one gap, then leap away and follow Jurgens (51) and Becton's (77) double-team to an explosive gain. That's a great back making a good line look even better than it is right there.

          The Falcons' run defense against the Steelers looks better on paper than it was on film. They surrendered 137 yards on 41 carries for only 3.3 yards per attempt, but by success rate, they were below average among Week 1 run defenses. The Steelers were having no issue salting them away. And again, that's with Atlanta fearing next to nothing from a Justin Fields dropback. If Pittsburgh carried a half-functional passing attack into that matchup, it would have put more stress on the secondary and forced lighter box counts out of the Falcons.

          It's extremely inaccurate to call the Eagles "a souped-up version of the Fields-led Steelers," but for the purposes of this matchup, we can draw the parallels. With Jalen Hurts and Barkley behind a supersized offensive line, the Eagles should find steady and unrelenting success in the running game. With A.J. Brown, the Eagles have a receiver who can win against A.J. Terrell when the Falcons give up an island on the outside. And in DeVonta Smith, they have a second receiver for whom the Falcons really don't have any recourse. While Hurts looked jumpy and uncertain as a passer for much of the game against the Packers, he's still heads and shoulders beyond Fields in that department.

          The Falcons' best hope to forget the offensive woes of Sunday and keep pace with the explosive Eagles offense comes from its running game. Atlanta was dominated on the interior trenches in Week 1, finding success only when it ran outside of Jake Matthews to the left (and away from T.J. Watt on the right).

          The Eagles' edge rushers are far less intimidating than Watt is against the run, and they also don't have as impressive a linebacker as Patrick Queen. But the Georgia-tough defensive tackle room of Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis should once again present significant problems to the Falcons' interior running game, and it's hard to take advantage of shaky linebacker play when you aren't willing to throw a play-action pass. (Though, not for nothing, Eagles LB Zack Baun looked pretty good Friday night.)

          I do think the Falcons will throw a play-action pass Monday night (or two, or three, or hopefully several!). Even if Cousins can't yet execute five- and seven-step dropbacks off his repaired Achilles, the Falcons' offense simply cannot be as siloed in Week 2 as it was in Week 1.

          As such, I don't want to make this bet anticipating just as toothless of a passing attack in Week 2 as Atlanta had in Week 1. There are easy fixes here, as there are off any game in which Ray-Ray McCloud III gets seven targets while Drake London and Kyle Pitts get three apiece. In particular, I'm looking at Pitts, who ran 17 of his 27 routes in Week 1 from the slot. The Eagles had big problems with slot receiver Jayden Reed in Week 1 (5 targets, 3 catches, 129 yards from the slot), and they don't have a single body capable of matching up with Pitts when he lines up in the slot. Avonte Maddox, their starting nickel corner from Week 1, is a smaller player who struggles at the catch point. Second-round rookie Cooper DeJean, who is meant to be a safety/cornerback hybrid with the size to deal with a player like Pitts, missed most of camp because of an injury and is being phased into the defense slowly (only six snaps last week).

          I like Pitts over receptions more than over yards, just because I'm not sure how far downfield Cousins can reliably get the ball right now. And if we get the expected negative game script for the Falcons, we can expect the Eagles defense to willingly surrender shorter completions.

          The bet: Kyle Pitts OVER 3.5 receptions (-115)

          Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)

          Patrick Mahomes UNDER 24.5 rushing yards (-135)

          Mahomes has not gone over this number in his past four games against Lou Anarumo's defense, nor has he ever ran more than four times in a game against the Bengals' defense. As a general rule, we should chase quarterback rushing overs against teams that run man coverage, as those defenders must turn their back to the quarterback and will be late to notice when he escapes. But against zone teams, as the Bengals have always been against Mahomes, we should look for rushing unders. With how well the Bengals have done in corralling Mahomes over their storied history, I like the under here.

          Dalton Schultz under 29.5 receiving yards (-115)

          The debut of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in Houston hurt Schultz. Schultz was tasked with staying in as a blocker more often than he was last season as the Texans ramped up their rushing attack, and Diggs was used as a stick-mover, taking volume away from the talented tight end. Schultz is probably good for a few spike weeks using play-action and misdirection, but against a Bears defense that is notoriously stingy for tight ends? I'm guessing not.

          Indianapolis Colts -2.5 at Green Bay Packers

          The Colts are banged up entering Week 2 (JuJu Brents is on season-ending IR, and DeForest Buckner, Julian Blackmon, Kwity Paye missed practice Thursday), but they still have more than enough defensive talent to handle Malik Willis, should he get the start at quarterback. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is leaving the door open for Jordan Love to play this Sunday, but I'd be flabbergasted if he does. This was my early bet of the week, which I gave out at -3, and I still like it at -2.5, even with the Colts' substantial defensive injuries.

          SGP: Cowboys -6, Derek Carr UNDER 224.5 passing yards, Rico Dowdle OVER 34.5 rushing yards (+400, betting .2 units)

          As always with a same-game parlay, I like all of these looks individually. I think Dallas is going to be a dominant team against the spread early, as the public catches up to the fact that this is still a great regular-season team. The New Orleans Saints blew the Panthers out of the water last week, but Carolina's pass rush might be the worst in the league, and Dallas' might be the best. We know that when under pressure, Carr is an inaccurate and unreliable thrower.

          And while Dowdle was outproduced by Ezekiel Elliott last week, Elliott and Dowdle were rotating by drive, so there's no reason for Elliott's rushing line to be set remarkably higher than Dowdle's, save for a talent disparity, which I do not believe there is.