NFL betting: Under the radar props for Week 2

We're betting to win.

We're betting to try to win.

And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

1. A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all of the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

2. A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets, and therefore more opportunities to find value.

Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criteria or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

Let's dive in to Week 2, starting with defensive player props!

Defensive props

Jordan Hicks (CLE) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-105)

I love this bet, as 8.5 makes sense as a line for Hicks if you're just looking at the median of combined tackles from a year ago. But that was when he was on the Vikings and playing 93% of defensive snaps. Now he's on the Browns and, at age 32, came off the field on more than half of the team's third downs and only played 70% of the snaps in the game.

Even though there are fewer tackles to be found on passing plays, it's harder to get to nine combined tackles when you're not on the field every play. I am way under here, projecting 6.0 tackles + assists for Hicks.

Devin Lloyd (JAX) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-135)

Lloyd is in a similar situation: his playing time was down in Week 1, from 97% of defensive snaps played in 2023 to just 75% in 2024. He's coming off a game in which he did go over this line with nine combined tackles, so it is possible, but his run stop win rate was below average at 29%. Even at -135 I can't pass this one up.

Jonathon Cooper (DEN) over 0.5 sacks (+150) (added 9/13)

After one game, Cooper looks like a breakout candidate to me. His pass rush get off (time to cross the line of scrimmage) in Week 1 improved the third-most relative to his 2023 average among edge rushers, dropping from 0.83 seconds last year to 0.70 against the Seahawks, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And the result was a 50% pass rush win rate that tied for first in the NFL in Week 1 and two sacks. Now, he gets a sack magnet in Justin Fields (9.5% sack rate last year) and I make him a value to get his third sack at +150.

Greg Rousseau (BUF) under 0.5 sacks (-125)

My sack model isn't buying Rousseau quite yet, even after his three-sack performance in Week 1. The key factor working against him this week is Tua Tagovailoa's quick release, which has allowed him to have a low 5.0% sack rate since the start of 2023 despite a questionable offensive line in front of him.

As far as Rousseau is concerned, he was obviously exceptional last week but he also has just a 14% pass rush win rate since the start of last year -- below average for a starter at the position.

Also consider:

• Foyesade Oluokun (JAX) under 10.5 tackles + assists (-130)

• Justin Reid (KC) under 6.5 tackles + assists (-120)

• Paulson Adebo (NO) under 5.5 tackles + assists (-120)

• Chris Jones (KC) under 0.5 sacks (+110) (added 9/13)

• George Karlaftis (KC) under 0.5 sacks (-120) (added 9/13)

• Brian Burns (NYG) over 0.5 sacks (+145) (added 9/13)

• Quinnen Williams (NYJ) under 0.5 sacks (-130) (added 9/13)

• Jeffery Simmons (TEN) under 0.5 sacks (-170) (added 9/13)

• Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL) under 0.5 sacks (-140) (added 9/13)

• Kobie Turner (LAR) under 0.5 sacks (-165) (added 9/13)

• Travon Walker (JAX) under 0.5 sacks (+115) (added 9/14)

Receptions

Jerome Ford (CLE) under 3.5 receptions (-135)

One of my favorite splits is the dramatic disparity in running back receptions between man and zone coverage. Since 2021, a running back has recorded a reception on 16% of dropbacks against zone coverage but on just 9% of dropbacks against man.

It makes sense. Against zone a running back can settle into the hole between zones as a checkdown option, but against man they'll more likely have a linebacker on them. Last year we had a ton of success (in a limited sample) betting the running back reception unders against man-heavy teams, and the bet here is that the market hasn't fully baked in this information yet. In 2023 the Falcons ran man coverage 64% of the time - most in the NFL - under then-defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Now Nielsen is in Jacksonville - Cleveland's Week 2 opponent - and ran man 63% of the time in Week 1.

Alternate receiving yards

OK, these aren't exactly under-the-radar bets, but they're still backed by a model and so that's good enough to fit into our criteria.

Cedric Tillman (CLE) 20+ receiving yards (+175)

Tillman had a disappointing opener, catching just one pass for three yards and playing only about a third of the team's offensive snaps. However, I like that the model likes him, considering he got buzz in the offseason for taking a step forward and the model is naturally unaware of that. He's a vertical threat; since the start of 2023 he has the 12th-highest rate of go and deep fade routes, so we're probably only looking for one long catch here to hit at solid plus-money.

Stefon Diggs (HOU) 80+ receiving yards (+225)

The yardage wasn't there in Week 1, though he scored twice, but this is just an upside bet on a good player in a great offense. The model finds it helpful to consider past receiving yardage props and while it was obviously a different situation with less target competition for Diggs in Buffalo, his average receiving yards prop line last year was 77. Also, the Bears had a good run defense last year, which could encourage Houston to throw more.

Also consider:

• Curtis Samuel (BUF) 35+ receiving yards (+225)

• Courtland Sutton (DEN) 40+ receiving yards (+105)

Anytime touchdowns

Nico Collins (HOU) to score a touchdown (+150)

I wrote a week ago about how my touchdown model loved Collins. Nothing about Week 1 -- apart from him not actually scoring a touchdown -- changed that opinion. Collins caught six passes for 117 yards, maintaining a strong 26% target share despite the competition from Diggs and Tank Dell. The model loves to see the yards come through the air rather than via yards after catch; his 3.6 completed air yards per route was third best among wide receivers in Week 1.

On nearly all players my touchdown model sees slightly worse odds than what's offered, but for Collins it actually makes him better that 50-50 to score.