Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
Week 17 is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.
Money Line: Detroit Lions (+215); Dallas Cowboys (-260) Total: 53.5; Opened: 52.5 FPI favorite: Cowboys by 7 (70.2% to win outright)
Projected Score: Cowboys 29, Lions 26
Micah Parsons under 2.5 solos (+105): Parsons has fallen short of three solo tackles in 13 out of 15 games this season, with the exceptions coming back in Weeks 2 and 9. He's averaging 1.8 per game, despite playing a substantial offensive role (80% snap share).
Brian Branch under 3.5 solos (-115): We lost on this same line last week, but I'm going right back to the well. Despite hitting the over with five solos last week, Branch was limited to 71% of snaps. He had been an every-down player earlier this season, but has been under 75% of snaps in three straight games. Detroit's slot corner has now reached four solo tackles only four times in 13 games and two of those games were way back in Weeks 3-4. Branch had a total of two solos in his two games prior to the Week 16 outburst.
Gus Edwards under 12.5 carries (-137): It was expected that Edwards would be Baltimore's clear lead rusher when Keaton Mitchell went down for the season two weeks ago, but it was actually Justice Hill who paced Baltimore's backfield in snaps (62%) and carries (10) in Week 16. Edwards played on 43% of snaps and handled nine carries. The veteran back has now fallen short of 13 carries in 10 out of 15 games this season, including six of his last seven. He's set to battle a Miami defense that has faced 19.5 RB carries per game (16.5 over the last eight games). Eight backs have reached 13 carries against Miami -- and all were clear lead backs, with the exception of Joshua Kelley back in Week 1.
Money Line: New England Patriots (+550); Buffalo Bills (-800) Total: 40.5; Opened: 40.5 FPI favorite: Bills by 14.9 (87% to win outright)
Projected Score: Bills 26, Patriots 15
Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs (+110): The gift that keeps on giving, Allen has thrown at least one INT in 16 of his last 19 games tracing back to last season. He had thrown at least one in nine consecutive outings prior to ending the streak against Dallas in Week 15 (a game in which he attempted only 15 passes) and then threw one against the Chargers last week. New England has at least one pick in eight out of 15 games. Even with Buffalo leaning more on the run as of late, Allen's recklessness makes this enticing at plus money.
Money Line: Atlanta Falcons (+140); Chicago Bears (-165) Total: 37.5; Opened: 37.5 FPI favorite: Falcons by 0.4 (51.3% to win outright)
Projected Score: Bears 19, Falcons 17
Bijan Robinson over 2.5 receptions (-190): Following a disappointing Week 15 in windy/rainy conditions, Robinson got back on track in Week 16 with career-high marks in targets (10) and receptions (7). Robinson has now seen at least five targets in four of his last five games and has at least three catches in all four of those outings. Excluding the now-infamous "headache" game, Robinson has played on 71% of Atlanta's offensive snaps and is averaging 3.4 receptions per game. He has an A+ matchup this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed 98 RB receptions (second most) and an 82% catch rate (seventh highest). Sixteen backs have had at least three receptions against them in their 15 games.
Derrick Henry under 57.5 rushing yards (-115): Henry sits second in the league in carries and sixth in rushing yards, yet his weekly average sits just above this line at 64.8 rushing yards per game. He's fallen short of 58 yards in six out of 15 games, including four of his last seven. One of those "down games" was against these same Texans in Week 15. Henry carried the ball 16 times for nine yards -- yes, you read that correctly. Houston has arguably the league's best run defense, having allowed a league-low 3.2 yards per carry and 1,035 RB rushing yards (fourth lowest). Six backs have reached 58 rushing yards against them, although the most recent one was back in Week 11.
Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (+160); Indianapolis Colts (-190) Total: 42.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Colts by 3.5 (60.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Colts 20, Raiders 19
Gardner Minshew over 0.5 INT (+125): Minshew has thrown nine interceptions this season, including at least one in seven of his last 10 games. The Raiders have been better defensively as of late and that has helped them to 12 INTs over their last 12 games, including at least one in nine of those 12 outings. This is an easy one to bite on at plus money.
Vonn Bell over 4.5 total tackles (-140): Bell has played 10 full games this season and the veteran safety is averaging 6.0 tackles per game during those outings. He's reached five total tackles in seven of those 10 games. Jacksonville is middle-of-the-pack in tackles allowed to safeties, though we've already seen 19 safeties reach five tackles against them.
Money Line: Los Angeles Rams (-240); New York Giants (+200) Total: 43.5; Opened: 41.5 FPI favorite: Rams by 12.2 (82.2% to win outright)
Projected Score: Rams 25, Giants 17
Darren Waller over 3.5 receptions (-115): Waller returned from IR in Week 15 and caught four of his six targets while playing on 43% of snaps. He saw a dip in production last week (two catches on five targets), but his snap share increased to 63%. Waller had played on 84% of snaps prior to his injury and averaged 7.0 targets and 5.0 receptions per game during those seven outings. In total, he's reached four receptions in five out of 10 games (one of the exceptions was the game in which he left injured). Waller has a 25% target share (24-of-96) when Tyrod Taylor has played this season and those looks resulted in an 18-208-1 receiving line. He'll face a Rams defense that has struggled to slow opposing tight ends (8.3 yards per target is fourth highest).
Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+475); Philadelphia Eagles (-650) Total: 48.5; Opened: 47.5 FPI favorite: Eagles by 11.6 (80.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: Eagles 29, Cardinals 23
Trey McBride under 6.5 receptions (-125): This is more or less a "fade extreme highs" play. To show how lofty of a number this is, consider that there have been just 14 instances of a tight end having a receptions prop of at least 6.5 this season -- and 13 of those were Travis Kelce. Kelce went under in nine of those 13 games. The other was McBride last week, and he went under with six catches. McBride first stepped into a substantial offensive role in Week 8 and has since reached seven catches in five out of eight games. The Eagles have yet to allow any tight end to clear seven catches in a game, though Kelce, T.J. Hockenson and Jake Ferguson each had exactly seven.
Money Line: New Orleans Saints (+120); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-140) Total: 42.5; Opened: 41.5 FPI favorite: Saints by 0.7 (52% to win outright)
Projected Score: Buccaneers 24, Saints 22
Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing TDs (+125): Six teams have produced two-plus TD passes against the Saints this season and one of those six threw three. That one was Mayfield, back in Week 4. Mayfield has tossed at least two TD passes in nine out of 15 games (60%). He's hit the mark in three straight outings, including a season-high four against Green Bay in Week 15. Mayfield ranks eighth in the NFL in passing attempts and, believe it or not, sits sixth in passing TDs (26). He has a better than 50% shot to hit this mark, so it's worth a look at plus money.
Juwan Johnson over 2.5 receptions (+150): Johnson returned to a more prominent offensive role last week (72% of snaps), which allowed him to reach four receptions on seven targets. He's now run routes on at least 65% of the Saints' passing plays six times this season and is averaging 3.2 receptions per game in those outings. He's reached three catches in four of those games. This is a terrific matchup, as the Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most TE receptions this season. Fifteen tight ends have caught at least three passes against them over their 15 games.
Money Line: San Francisco 49ers (-800) ; Washington Commanders (+550) Total: 49.5; Opened: 48.5 FPI favorite: 49ers by 10.1 (77.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: 49ers 30, Commanders 18
Fred Warner over 7.5 total tackles (-101): Warner is averaging 8.4 tackles per game and has reached eight in 10 out of 15 outings, including three in a row. Warner rarely leaves the field, having played on 94% of San Francisco's defensive snaps. Washington sits middle-of-the-pack in tackles allowed to off-ball linebackers and 14 players at the position have reached eight tackles against them in 15 games this season.
George Pickens under 4.5 receptions (-140): Pickens put up 195 receiving yards last week... and still wasn't above this line. Pickens caught four of his six targets in the game and has now produced fewer than four receptions in 11 out of 15 games this season. Three of those four exceptions came with Diontae Johnson sidelined or limited (Weeks 1, 5 and 7). Pickens has seen seven-or-fewer targets in nine straight games and is averaging just 3.2 receptions per game during the span.
Money Line: Los Angeles Chargers (+165); Denver Broncos (-195) Total: 36.5; Opened: 38.5 FPI favorite: Broncos by 1.1 (53.3% to win outright)
Projected Score: Broncos 21, Chargers 18
Gerald Everett under 4.5 receptions (-125): Everett is on a hot streak, having produced exactly eight targets and at least five receptions in three straight games. Of course, prior to that, Everett had failed to clear six targets in any of his first 10 games of the season (a 3.6 average) and reached five receptions only once (a 2.9 average). Everett's emergence has coincided with Easton Stick taking over at quarterback, which makes this an interesting one, but it's easy to fade five-plus catches on a player who has achieved it in only 22 (20%) out of 112 career games. Denver has struggled against tight ends (fourth-most receptions allowed), but only seven TEs have reached five catches against them in 15 games.
Money Line: Cincinnati Bengals (+260); Kansas City Chiefs (-320) Total: 43.5; Opened: 45.5 FPI favorite: Chiefs by 8.1 (73% to win outright)
Projected Score: Chiefs 25, Bengals 22
Logan Wilson over 7.5 total tackles (+105): Wilson has produced at least eight total tackles in 11 out of 15 games. He's an every-down player, having played on 99.2% of the Bengals' defensive snaps, and is averaging 8.3 tackles per game. Wilson, who averaged 8.2 tackles per game in 2022, is facing a Chiefs team that has allowed 16 off-ball LBs to reach eight tackles in 15 games this season.
Jordan Battle under 4.5 solos (-149): Battle has been solid as a third-round rookie this season, but he's not a full-time player, having yet to eclipse a 90% snap share in any single game. He's been sharing the second safety job with Nick Scott all season and, while he did take over as the "primary" second safety in Week 11, he's played on only 85% of snaps in the six games since (as compared to the 99% played by Dax Hill). Battle has managed more than four solo tackles in just one out of 15 games, having produced exactly three or four solos in five straight games. Kansas City has allowed the fifth-fewest tackles to safeties this season.
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-105); Minnesota Vikings (-115) Total: 43.5; Opened: 45.5 FPI favorite: Packers by 1 (52.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: Packers 23, Vikings 21
Johnny Mundt anytime TD (+850): An "anytime TD" prop for a player with one career touchdown? Let's do it. Mundt has primarily been utilized as a blocker throughout his seven NFL seasons (45 career targets) and his lone touchdown came last season when he enjoyed a career-high 22 targets. Of course, the key here is the season-ending injury to T.J. Hockenson, which has vaulted Mundt into a prominent offensive role. Following Hockenson's departure last week, Mundt ran routes on 15 of Minnesota's final 17 passing plays, which trailed only Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn. Mundt handled a career-high three targets in the game and could easily double that mark this week, especially if Jordan Addison (ankle) is out. Green Bay has allowed six TE touchdowns this season (sixth most). This one is obviously a longshot, but worth a dart at +850.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys -6
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens -3
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -13
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears -3
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans -4.5
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts -3.5
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars -6
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 @ New York Giants
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles -12
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
San Francisco 49ers -12.5 @ Washington Commanders
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos -3.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs -7
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings -1