Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 17, which kicked off Thursday with the Jets at the Browns.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens -3.5
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Zay Flowers
De'Von Achane has played on at least 20 snaps in seven games this season. The rookie produced 20-plus fantasy points in each of the first four games, but has been held under 12.5 points in his last three. During the recent slump, Achane has totaled 164 yards on 32 touches and has not found the end zone. The good news is that Achane played 55% of snaps on Sunday (his third-highest rate of the season), but the bad news is that Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. were also involved -- and this week's matchup is one of the toughest of the season. Baltimore has allowed the seventh-fewest RB fantasy points and only six touchdowns. Only five backs have reached 15 fantasy points against them. Still, Achane's explosiveness keeps him in the flex discussion.
Over/under: 46.7 (fifth highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 61% (ninth highest)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -13
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Stefon Diggs
Dalton Kincaid has fallen out of the TE1 mix after seeing his role substantially reduced over the last two weeks. The rookie played on 73% of snaps and averaged 7.6 targets per game during the five games Dawson Knox was out. With Knox now fully back, Kincaid has played on 45% of snaps and has a total of 7 yards on four targets in Weeks 15-16. Buffalo has leaned into an extremely run-heavy approach, so while Kincaid will have better games, he can't be counted on against a good New England defense this week.
Over/under: 40.9 (11th highest)
Win probability: Bills 86% (third highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears -3
Soldier Field, Chicago
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Bijan Robinson, DJ Moore
D'Onta Foreman (personal) was sidelined in Week 16, which opened the door for either Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson to claim lead-back duties. Herbert played 35 snaps and led the team with 20 carries (112 yards and 1 TD) but was limited to just 9 yards on two targets. Johnson, meanwhile, handled nine carries and four targets on 30 snaps, which allowed him only 53 yards. If Foreman remains out, Herbert will be the better flex play here, but this is a situation to avoid if possible as the Falcons have allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points and a league-low five RB scores. Only one back has reached 18 fantasy points against Atlanta this season.
Over/under: 35.5 (15th highest)
Win probability: Bears 58% (12th highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans -5
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, DeAndre Hopkins
Devin Singletary predictably returned to earth last week, earning just 63 yards on 12 touches. It was an "ordinary" follow-up to his 30-touch, 170-yard explosion of Week 15. The good news is that Singletary remained Houston's lead back (Dameon Pierce played on only 11 snaps) but was game-scripted out of the one-sided loss (Dare Ogunbowale played 28 snaps, 27 of which were passing plays). Especially if C.J. Stroud returns this week, Houston will be favored at home against the 5-10 Titans, which will help Singletary's fantasy outlook. The veteran back remains a viable flex.
Over/under: 45.9 (sixth highest)
Win probability: Texans 54% (14th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts -3.5
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Michael Pittman Jr.
With Pittman sidelined last week, the Colts' WR usage was as follows: Alec Pierce (68 out of a possible 68 snaps, seven targets), Josh Downs (63 snaps, nine targets), D.J. Montgomery (58 snaps, four targets), Ethan Fernea (two snaps, zero targets). Pierce's usage allowed him only 30 yards and he's now been held below 9.0 fantasy points in 14 out of 15 games. Downs wasn't much better (39 yards) and has been held under 45 yards and 10.0 fantasy points in seven straight games. The Colts' second-tier wideouts should be avoided if Pittman returns this week. If he remains sidelined, Downs will be a low-ceiling deep-league flex.
Over/under: 38.3 (13th highest)
Win probability: Colts 54% (15th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley, Adam Thielen, Evan Engram
Chuba Hubbard continues to cement his status as Carolina's lead back, having played on at least 64% of offensive snaps in five straight games. The generous playing time has allowed Hubbard to earn solid rushing production (a 100-366-4 rushing line during the five games), but he hasn't been much of a factor as a receiver (just 10 targets during the span, with half coming in Week 12). Hubbard has reached 20 fantasy points twice this season, but he's now been held under 12.5 points in three straight contests. He remains a borderline RB2 against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the most RB receptions, but only 3.7 yards per carry (fifth lowest).
Over/under: 37.3 (14th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 66% (6th highest)
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
After Darren Waller played on 43% of offensive snaps and was targeted six times in his Week 15 return from injury, it was assumed that his playing time and fantasy output would increase in a good matchup against the Eagles last week. We were half-right. Waller's snap share jumped to 63%, but the veteran tight end was limited to 32 yards on five targets. Perhaps Waller will make another leap forward in usage this week (he was playing on 88% of snaps prior to his Week 8 injury) in what is another plus-matchup. (The Rams have allowed eight TE touchdowns, second most in the league.) Waller is a fringe TE1.
Over/under: 41.5 (10th highest)
Win probability: Rams 76% (fourth highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles -10.5
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, James Conner, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Trey McBride
Murray has made his way to "lineup lock" status after a Week 16 showing in which he threw two TD passes for the first time this season while adding 32 yards on the ground. Murray has now produced 20-plus fantasy points in three out of six games since his return and his two duds (under 14 points) came against the Steelers and 49ers. Murray sits at QB13 in fantasy PPG and is set up with an elite matchup against an Eagles defense that has faced a league-high 39.1 passing attempts per game and has allowed the second-most TD passes (31) and QB fantasy points (20.5 per game).
Over/under: 52.7 (second highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 71% (fifth highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White, Chris Olave, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Rashid Shaheed's boom/bust campaign continues, as the second-year wideout exploded for 70 yards and a score on nine targets in Week 16 against the Rams' struggling pass defense. Shaheed has now produced 18-plus fantasy points four times this season, but has failed to clear 10.3 points in any of his other nine outings. Shaheed played on a season-high 81% of snaps in Week 16 and will sustain a prominent offensive role this week, assuming Michael Thomas remains on IR. Shaheed is a deep-league flex option against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the most WR yards and fourth-most WR fantasy points.
Over/under: 45.4 (seventh highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 58% (11th highest)
San Francisco 49ers -12.5 @ Washington Commanders
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
Subbing in for Brian Robinson Jr. for the second straight week, Chris Rodriguez Jr. exploded for 65 yards and two scores on 11 touches in Week 16. The rookie is now averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per carry on 51 attempts, though he's been limited to just two targets on the season. Rodriguez played on a season-high 38% of snaps on Sunday and has 20 carries and one target in the two games with Robinson out. If Robinson remains sidelined, Rodriguez (assuming he overcomes his ankle injury) will continue to share with Antonio Gibson and will make for a risky flex option, especially against a 49ers defense that has allowed the second-fewest RB rushing yards this season.
Over/under: 48.4 (third highest)
Win probability: 49ers 88% (second highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf
George Pickens busted out for a career-high 195 yards and two touchdowns in a great matchup against the Bengals last week. The big day came on just six targets, however, and Pickens has now seen seven or fewer looks in nine consecutive games (5.4 per game). Pickens averaged 39.1 yards and 7.8 fantasy PPG during the first eight games of this stretch, so even though he has the ability to produce a big game, he'll be hard to trust as anything more than a boom/bust deep-league flex here in Championship week. The same goes for Diontae Johnson, who is averaging 11.4 PPG in the 10 outings since his return from injury.
Over/under: 42.7 (ninth highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 56% (13th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos -3.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen
Courtland Sutton left Week 16's loss to New England due to a concussion after only nine snaps. In his stead, the Denver WR usage was as follows: Jerry Jeudy (48 out of 65 possible snaps, five targets), Brandon Johnson (43 snaps, five targets), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (38 snaps, five targets) and Marvin Mims Jr. (27 snaps, four targets). No Denver player cleared five targets in the game and Johnson (thanks to a touchdown) was the only Broncos wideout to reach 8.0 fantasy points. If Sutton is sidelined, Jeudy will be the only one of the four receivers worth considering for your flex. He hasn't been good this season (WR29 is his best weekly finish), but this is a good matchup (Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most WR yards, and the third-most WR scores and fantasy points).
Over/under: 39.7 (12th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 64% (seventh highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs -7
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Joe Mixon, Rashee Rice, Ja'Marr Chase, Travis Kelce
With Chase sidelined last week for the first time this season, the Bengals' WR usage was as follows: Tee Higgins (49 out of a possible 61 snaps, nine targets), Tyler Boyd (48 snaps, seven targets), Andrei Iosivas (43 snaps, eight targets), Trenton Irwin (26 snaps, four targets), Charlie Jones (seven snaps, one target). If Chase returns, he can expect L'Jarius Sneed shadow coverage, but should remain in lineups, whereas Higgins will actually get an upgrade on the other side of the field against Jaylen Watson and can be upgraded. However, if Chase is out, Higgins figures to draw the Sneed shadow and, while the volume boost will be enough to make him a viable fantasy starter (he had two scores last week after all), the matchup will be tough. In that scenario, Iosivas will be an intriguing sleeper against Watson. Boyd hasn't reached 11.0 fantasy points since Week 10 and, especially in a tough matchup, will only be a flex play if Chase is out.
Over/under: 47.4 (fourth highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 61% (10th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings -2
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Ty Chandler, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson
T.J. Hockenson (knee) is done for the season. Following his departure from last week's game, it was Johnny Mundt who replaced him as the team's primary receiving tight end. Mundt ran a route on 15 of the team's final 17 pass plays, which trailed only Jefferson and K.J. Osborn. The 29-year-old matched a career high with three targets and caught one for 23 yards. If you're looking to replace Hockenson, you should be searching elsewhere, but Mundt is a candidate for 4-6 targets against Green Bay, which puts him on the sleeper/desperation radar.
Over/under: 45.1 (eighth highest)
Win probability: Packers 52% (16th highest)