Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 15, which kicked off Thursday with the Chargers at the Raiders.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals -3
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Saturday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, T.J. Hockenson
Alexander Mattison went down with an ankle injury and is in doubt for Week 15. If he's sidelined, Ty Chandler will step in as lead back. Chandler played on 56% of snaps this past Sunday, which allowed him to get a 12-35-0 rushing and 3-7-0 receiving line. That's not particularly good, though he did show some upside with a 14-touch, 110-yard effort in Week 11. Minnesota's RB room ranks 31st in both fantasy points and touchdowns (6), so there's not a lot to love here, but if Mattison is out, Chandler will see enough work to warrant flex consideration.
After posting a 2-27-0 receiving line on Sunday, Jordan Addison has now been held under 11.0 fantasy points in five straight games -- and that was with Jefferson sidelined for all but 13 snaps during that stretch. Addison averaged 7.9 targets per game during Jefferson's absence, but only 4.6 in the five games Jefferson was active. The rookie is a full-time player who has seven touchdowns in 13 games, so he remains on the WR3 radar, but he'll only be a lineup lock if Jefferson (chest) sits out.
Jake Browning has been terrific over the past two weeks, having produced 275-plus passing yards and exactly one rushing score in both games. Browning cleared 23 fantasy points in both weeks and has completed 50 of 61 passes (82%) during the span. Despite the success, Browning is not an ideal streamer this week against a surging Vikings defense that hasn't allowed any quarterback to reach 15.0 fantasy points since Week 5.
Over/under: 39.1 (10th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 62% (9th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts -1.5
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Saturday 4:30 p.m ET
Lineup locks: Zack Moss, Michael Pittman Jr.
Yes, Moss remains a lineup lock despite consecutive underwhelming performances. In the two full games since Jonathan Taylor's injury, Moss has managed only 79 yards on 32 carries and 34 additional yards on seven targets. He failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in either game. On the plus side, Moss played on 89% of snaps this past Sunday and his 38 touches over the last two weeks rank eighth among running backs. He's had some bad TD luck, as well, as he ranks fourth in expected TDs (2.2) and tied for third in carries inside the 5-yard line (three) during the two-week span. Moss hasn't delivered quality RB1 numbers like he did when Taylor was out earlier this season, but there's enough volume here that he remains a top-20 play against Pittsburgh.
Over/under: 41 (9th highest)
Win probability: Colts 59% (12th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions -4
Ford Field, Detroit
Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Courtland Sutton, Sam LaPorta
On Sunday, Javonte Williams scored his first rushing touchdown since Week 16 of 2021. The third-year back has been all over the map from a fantasy standpoint this season, producing 18-plus fantasy points three times, but falling short of 13.0 points in his other nine outings. Williams sits 14th in RB touches, but poor efficiency has him only 28th in yardage. Plus, he's found the end zone only three times. Williams, who has only two carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line, is a back-end RB2/flex against a Detroit defense allowing 3.5 yards per RB carry (third lowest).
Over/under: 45 (8th highest)
Win probability: Lions 56% (14th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns -3
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, DJ Moore, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
D'Onta Foreman returned from injury in Week 14 and was Chicago's clear lead back, handling 11 carries and three targets on 37 snaps. Roschon Johnson (only one carry and one target on 18 snaps) and Khalil Herbert (three carries and zero targets on 11 snaps) were next in line. Foreman leading the way in carries isn't a shock, but his heavy workload in the passing game was a surprise (16 routes, compared to 13 total for the other two). This remains a committee, so there's not a lot to love, but Foreman's role is enough to place him on the deep-league flex radar.
Over/under: 35.8 (13th highest)
Win probability: Bears 60% (10th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers -3.5
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Christian Watson, Chris Godwin
Jayden Reed converted 12 touches into 20.5 fantasy points (both career highs) against the Giants in Week 14 and has now registered three top-12 fantasy outings in his last five games. Reed was held to only 27 yards on his 10 targets, but turned four carries into 38 yards and his second rushing score. Reed has now found the end zone in four of his last five games and is up to seven scores in 13 games. Reed's big game came with Watson sidelined. Watson may return this week, so Reed is best viewed as a flex if he is indeed active, and a WR3 if he's out.
Over/under: 45.7 (7th highest)
Win probability: Packers 63% (8th highest)
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans -2.5
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins
Collins left Sunday's game because of an injury, and the Texans' WR usage (snaps/targets) ended up as follows: Robert Woods (38/3), Xavier Hutchinson (38/3), Noah Brown (35/5), John Metchie III (25/5). With C.J. Stroud out for this one due to a concuusion and Davis Mills now in at quarterback, all Houston receivers are best avoided.
Over/under: 46.4 (5th highest)
Win probability: Titans 55% (15th highest)
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins -8.5
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Breece Hall, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle
Tagovailoa is not a good starting option this week against a Jets defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards and QB fantasy points. The only quarterback to reach 20 fantasy points against the Jets was Josh Allen (22.5 in Week 11), and Tagovailoa was held to a season-low 7.8 points when these teams met in New York back in Week 12. In fact, Tagovailoa is now averaging just 13.0 fantasy PPG in three career starts against New York. As if the matchup isn't intimidating enough, Tagovailoa already hasn't been very good from a fantasy standpoint, as he hasn't posted any weekly finish better than QB9 during his past seven games.
Last week, I made the observation that Achane outcarrying Mostert 17-11 in Week 13 may have been fluky, as Mostert was rested once the game was in hand. It turns out that was in fact the case, as Mostert reestablished himself as the team's top ball carrier in Week 14. The veteran played on more snaps (45-31 in favor of Mostert) and handled more carries (21-7), although the rookie did run more routes (22-13) and had a big edge in targets (9-1). Mostert now has 18 touchdowns in 13 games and remains a viable RB2 despite a very limited workload as a receiver (19 yards on seven targets in his past six games). Achane, meanwhile, still produced 71 yards of offense against Tennessee, and his 27% target share helps secure his spot as a weekly RB2.
Over/under: 34.9 (14th highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 85% (2nd highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 @ New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Ezekiel Elliott, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
Mahomes is listed as a lineup lock because it's unlikely you have a superior option, but he may lose that status soon. The reigning MVP has not shown much upside (just two weekly finishes better than QB7) and has struggled as of late, with weekly finishes of 31st, 11th, 14th, 8th, 16th and most recently 17th over his past six outings. Mahomes has had more than two passing scores only twice (Week 3 and 7). Mahomes is a back-end QB2 at a New England defense that has allowed six touchdowns in its past five games.
Elliott played on 91% of snaps with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined in Week 14. The veteran back was extremely busy, soaking up 22 carries and eight targets (both season highs). He certainly played well with 140 yards and a touchdown. Assuming Stevenson remains out, Elliott will remain the feature back this week, especially after the Patriots waived Ty Montgomery II last week. Elliott's path to elite volume has him in the RB1 mix.
Over/under: 39.1 (11th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 70% (5th highest)
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints -6
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Chris Olave
Darren Waller has a shot to return from IR this week. The veteran tight end sat fourth in TE targets (49) through Week 7, and his most recent full game was his best showing of the season (7-98-1 on eight targets). Waller will be riskier than usual coming off the injury, but he has a terrific matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed a league-high seven TE touchdowns.
Over/under: 38.9 (12th highest)
Win probability: Saints 63% (7th highest)
Atlanta Falcons -3 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson
Drake London and Kyle Pitts are both fresh off strong showings in Week 14, but neither can be considered a lineup lock. London (a 10-172-0 receiving line on 11 targets) posted career highs in receptions, yards and fantasy points on Sunday, but the big day marked only his second weekly finish better than WR19 this season. In fact, he had finished WR29 or worse in his prior five games. Pitts, meanwhile, has a solid 7-108-1 receiving line on 14 targets in his past two games. The young tight end's route participation increased during the stretch, which provides some optimism, but he has been limited to only three double-digit fantasy outings on the season (Weeks 5, 6 and 14). Carolina is among the seven best defenses at slowing both wide receivers and tight ends, so London and Pitts are best left on benches.
Over/under: 33.6 (16th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 70% (6th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams -6.5
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
Terry McLaurin was held without a catch when we last saw him (Week 12) and the veteran receiver has now been held below 10.0 fantasy points in four consecutive games. In fact, McLaurin has one weekly finish better than WR18, and that came way back in Week 4 (WR8). McLaurin has four games with double-digit targets, but zero 100-yard games and only two touchdowns to show for it. McLaurin is no more than a WR3/flex against a Rams defense that has struggled against wideouts of late but has surrendered only eight scores to the position on the season (fifth fewest).
Over/under: 47.6 (4th highest)
Win probability: Rams 83% (3rd highest)
San Francisco 49ers -12.5 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Trey McBride, George Kittle
Marquise Brown went without a catch on two targets when we last saw Arizona in Week 12. Brown had a tough matchup (Joey Porter Jr. shadow coverage), but the dud marked his third time under 4.0 fantasy points in four games since Kyler Murray's return. Brown did come through with one good game with Murray (6-88-0 on 12 targets in Week 12), but he simply hasn't had much upside this season (zero top-12 fantasy outings). Still, Brown's usage (7.8 targets per game) is enough to keep him in the WR3 discussion.
Over/under: 52.2 (2nd highest)
Win probability: 49ers 85% (Highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills -2.5
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Tony Pollard, James Cook, CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Jake Ferguson
Dawson Knox returned from injury in Week 14 and was the clear No. 2 tight end behind rookie Dalton Kincaid. Knox played on 32 snaps and was targeted on just three of his 16 routes. Kincaid played on 58 snaps and was targeted on nine of his 35 routes. That was a noticeable change from earlier this season, when the two were almost identical in all three categories. Perhaps Knox's role will expand in his second game back, but Kincaid seems safely positioned as Allen's No. 2 target. He remains a solid TE1.
Over/under: 53.3 (Highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 60% (11th highest)
Baltimore Ravens -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers, Evan Engram
Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy, and it's showing up on the stat sheet. OBJ has seen at least seven targets in three of his past five games and is averaging 13.5 fantasy PPG during this span. Beckham has yet to reach 20 fantasy points in a single outing but does have three touchdowns over his past four outings. Beckham is a fine flex option this week against a Jacksonville defense that has struggled against the perimeter this season.
Over/under: 46.1 (6th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 74% (4th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ Seattle Seahawks
Lumen Field, Seattle
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Kenneth Walker III, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, Tyler Lockett, Dallas Goedert
Is a Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout game upon us? The rookie saw a career-high 11 targets (28% team share) in Week 13 and followed that up with seven looks (23%) in Week 14. The boost in usage didn't amount to much (87 yards on 11 catches), but the opposition wasn't exactly easy (Dallas, San Francisco). Life should be much easier here in Week 15 against an Eagles defense that has allowed the most WR receptions, touchdowns and fantasy points this season. JSN is a sneaky flex option.
Over/Under: 49.5 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Eagles 58% (13th highest)