Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
Week 15 is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.
Tanner Hudson over 2.5 receptions (+123): Hudson doesn't see the field a ton, but he's heavily targeted when he's out there. The veteran tight end has played on 31% of Cincinnati's snaps during his eight games this season, averaging 4.3 targets and 3.5 receptions per game. After catching exactly two passes in his first two games (Weeks 3-4), he had four-plus receptions in five straight games prior to being held to only two again in Week 14. Minnesota has allowed at least three receptions to seven different tight ends over 13 games this season. This is well worth a look at plus money.
Nick Mullens over 0.5 INTs (-200): Mullens has played on more than half of his team's offensive snaps 17 times in his career and has thrown 21 INTs during those outings. This week, he'll make his first start of the season against a Bengals defense that has the fourth-most INTs (13) for the year. Cincinnati has had at least one pick in nine out of 13 games.
Money Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (+100); Indianapolis Colts (-120) Total: 42.5; Opened: 41.5 FPI favorite: Steelers by 2 (56% to win outright)
Projected Score: Colts 22, Steelers 19
Zaire Franklin over 3.5 assists (+130): Franklin is averaging 4.8 assists per game this season and has at least four of them in nine out of 13 games (including four in a row). He's an every-down off-ball linebacker, having played on 99% of Colts' defensive snaps this season. There's little reason not to jump all over this one at plus money, especially after he recorded eight assists just last week.
Joey Porter Jr. over 3.5 total tackles (-127) and over 2.5 solos (-135): Porter first played on at least 90% of the Steelers' defensive snaps in Week 9. In the six games since, he's averaging 3.8 total and 3.0 solo tackles per game. He's cleared both of these prop lines in four out of six games. Porter shadowed the opposing team's top receiver in four of those games and figures to do so again this week against Michael Pittman Jr. Considering Pittman ranks second in the NFL in targets (136), that will present Porter with plenty of tackle opportunities. The fast-paced Colts offense has allowed the fourth-most tackles to opposing defenses this season.
Money Line: Denver Broncos (+175); Detroit Lions (-210) Total: 47.5; Opened: 46.5 FPI favorite: Lions by 3.2 (59.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Lions 23, Broncos 22
David Montgomery under 15.5 carries (-106): Montgomery has reached 16 carries in five out of 10 games this season, although he's done so in only one of five games since returning from injury in Week 10 -- which is hardly a coincidence with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs taking on a larger role. Montgomery is averaging 13.4 attempts and maxed out at 18 during that five-game span. The Broncos have struggled against the run this season, but not quite as much as of late. Denver has allowed the most RB yards, but only ranks 10th in carries faced. Seven backs have reached 16 carries against them, but only one (Alexander Mattison with 18 in Week 11) has done so during the Broncos' last seven games.
Javonte Williams under 3.5 receptions (-179): Williams' playing time has gone up lately and yet he's had three-or-fewer receptions in four consecutive games and in 10 out of 12 games this season. The exceptions were four-catch efforts in Week 1 and Week 10. Williams is averaging 3.4 targets and 2.7 receptions per game. Detroit has allowed the seventh-fewest RB receptions this season. Four different backs have reached four catches against them and only Alvin Kamara (who leads all RBs in catches this season) had more than four.
Money Line: Chicago Bears (+130); Cleveland Browns (-150) Total: 38.5; Opened: 38.5 FPI favorite: Browns by 2.5 (57.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Bears 19, Browns 16
T.J. Edwards over 4.5 solos (-159): Edwards has produced at least five solo tackles in 11 out of 13 games this season. He's averaging 5.8 per game while operating as an every-down player in Chicago this season (a 97% snap share). The Cleveland offense has allowed both the most tackles to opposing defenses, as well as the most tackles to opposing off-ball linebackers (19.1 per game) this season.
Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+155); Green Bay Packers (-185) Total: 42.5; Opened: 42.5 FPI favorite: Packers by 2.2 (56.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Packers 25, Buccaneers 21
Rachaad White under 19.5 carries (-123): White has reached 20 carries in two consecutive games, though note that Tampa Bay was ahead or tied on 89% of their offensive snaps during this span. That's a far cry from the 41% rate during Weeks 1-12. In total, White has reached 20 carries in four out of 13 games, three of which were wins and the other a close loss to Houston. White soaked up a career-high 25 carries last week, but had never cleared 20 in any prior game. This week, the Buccaneers' game script may not be as generous, as they're road underdogs against the Packers. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most RB carries this season and yet only three backs have reached 20 carries against them. Note that 19.5 is the highest carry prop that has been posted for any player this season and only five (29%) of 17 players with a carry prop of at least 18.5 have gone over.
Money Line: New York Jets (+380); Miami Dolphins (-500) Total: 37.5; Opened: 40.5 FPI favorite: Dolphins by 11.3 (80.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Dolphins 23, Jets 12
Garrett Wilson over 4.5 receptions (-145): Wilson produced a cool nine receptions on 14 targets in last week's win over the Texans. The second-year receiver is now averaging 10.3 targets and 5.8 receptions per game. He's reached five catches in nine out of 13 games. Wilson sits third both WR target share (32%) and total targets (134). He's set to face a Miami defense that has allowed the eighth-most WR receptions and the sixth-highest catch rate (67%) this season. Fourteen wideouts have reached five catches against the Dolphins, including at least one in 11 out of 13 games.
Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-400); New England Patriots (+320) Total: 37.5; Opened: 37.5 FPI favorite: Chiefs by 9.4 (76.2% to win outright)
Projected Score: Chiefs 22, Patriots 17
Bailey Zappe over 0.5 passing TDs (-156): Zappe has played on at least two-thirds of the snaps in six games in his career and has at least one passing score in five of those games. The lone exception was the 6-0 loss to the Chargers two weeks ago, though he rebounded with a career-high three TD passes against Pittsburgh in Week 14. Kansas City has surrendered 17 passing touchdowns this season (11th most) and 11 of the Chiefs' 13 opponents recorded at least one TD pass -- with the Eagles and Jaguars being the exceptions.
Money Line: Atlanta Falcons (-165); Carolina Panthers (+140) Total: 33.5; Opened: 35.5 FPI favorite: Falcons by 5.7 (66.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Falcons 20, Panthers 14
Bijan Robinson over 2.5 receptions (-119): We hit on this at -143 last week and yet we're getting even better vig here in Week 15. Robinson has handled five-plus targets and three-plus receptions in each of his last three games -- including last week's seven targets and five catches. Robinson has now reached three receptions in eight out of 12 full games. This week, the rookie faces a Carolina defense that sits midpack in RB catches allowed. A full 10 different backs have hit three receptions against them in 13 games and the only one to reach six was Robinson, back when these teams met in Week 1.
Money Line: Washington Commanders (+240); Los Angeles Rams (-290) Total: 50.5; Opened: 48.5 FPI favorite: Rams by 9.1 (75.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Rams 29, Commanders 19
Kyren Williams anytime TD (-182): The juice isn't super enticing here, but Williams checks in with a TD projection of 1.12. That's the seventh-highest TD projection my model has spit out this season and, of the 27 prior instances of a player with a TD projection of at least 0.89, 21 found the end zone. Williams has 10 scores in nine games this season, including three scores in as many games since returning from injury in Week 12. The feature back is averaging 20.4 touches per game and ranks fifth in expected TDs (8.6) among running backs despite missing four games. Washington has allowed at least one RB touchdown in seven consecutive games, including at least two in three straight contests.
Money Line: San Francisco 49ers (-800); Arizona Cardinals (+550) Total: 47.5; Opened: 47.5 FPI favorite: 49ers by 13.8 (85.2% to win outright)
Projected Score: 49ers 32, Cardinals 21
Deebo Samuel under 4.5 receptions (+110): Samuel is averaging 4.2 receptions per game for his career, including 4.1 per game in 2023 (4.5 if we remove the Week 6 game he left early due to injury). Since returning from that injury in Week 10, Samiel has posted catch totals of four, three, seven, four and seven. Interestingly, he was held without a single catch when these two teams met in Week 4 despite playing on 87% of snaps. Game script should favor a run-heavy game from San Francisco, so the under at plus money is appealing.
Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs (-147): Allen throwing an interception was a successful leg in our profitable Fantasy Focus parlay last week, so we'll go back to the well. Allen has now thrown at least one pick in 10 consecutive games, as well as in 15 of his last 20 games tracing back to last season. Allen ranks third in passing attempts (475) and first in INTs (14) this season and very well could find himself in a pass-heavy game script this week against a Dallas defense that ranks fourth in interceptions (13).
Roquan Smith over 2.5 assists (-167): Smith has recorded at least three assists in 12 out of 13 games this season, averaging 4.7 per game along the way. Smith is a full-time player (a 98% snap share this season) and the one exception came in a Week 9 game against Seattle in which he missed a handful of snaps and ended up with two assists. Jacksonville is allowing 18.5 off-ball LB tackles per game, which is fourth most in the league.
Money Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-165); Seattle Seahawks (+140) Total: 47.5; Opened: 47.5 FPI favorite: Eagles by 2.6 (57.8% to win outright)
Projected Score: Eagles 26, Seahawks 24
Jalen Hurts over 8.5 carries (-104): Hurts is averaging 9.7 carries per game and, despite going under this line in losses to the 49ers and Cowboys over the last two weeks, he's reached nine attempts in nine out of 13 games this season. He sits first in QB carries (126) and fourth in scrambles (37). Seattle has faced the 11th-most QB rushing attempts this season, with mobile quarterbacks Daniel Jones (10) and Lamar Jackson (14) both reaching double-digit carries against them.
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts -1.5
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions -4.5
Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers -3.5
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans -3
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins -9.5
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 @ New England Patriots
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints -6
Atlanta Falcons -3 @ Carolina Panthers
Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams -6.5
San Francisco 49ers -12 @ Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills -2
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ Seattle Seahawks