Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
Week 11's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.
DeMarcus Lawrence under 0.75 sacks (-120): Lawrence has been held to 3.0 sacks, including 1.0 during his past six games. That's despite an uptick in pass rush win rate and sack rate compared to a 2022 campaign in which he had only 6.0 sacks in 17 games. Lawrence has played on 52% of snaps, which is his lowest since his rookie season in 2014. Bryce Young is taking a hefty 3.6 sacks per game (his 8.6% sack rate is eighth highest), but even with the rookie quarterback factored in, odds favor Lawrence falling short of a full sack.
Cameron Heyward under 0.25 sacks (-145): Heyward has missed most of the 2023 season due to an injury, but he hasn't disrupted the quarterback much even when healthy. The defensive lineman has a total of one pass rush win and zero sacks on 86 snaps across three games. Heyward played on 75% of defensive snaps in 2022 and racked up 10.5 sacks (at least 1.0 in eight out of 17 games), but he's been held to snap shares of 53% and 57% in his two games back from injury. Perhaps the 34-year-old will see more play this week and find his way to a sack against rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but I'd bet against it based on his body of work this season.
Money Line: Chicago Bears (+300) ; Detroit Lions (-380) Total: 47.5; Opened: 46.5 FPI favorite: Lions by 6.2 (67.9% to win outright)
Projected score: Lions 27, Bears 20
David Montgomery anytime TD (+105): Sometimes props are as simple as knowing what you're good at. My TD projection for Montgomery checks in at 0.89. I've projected 32 players at 0.80 or above, and 23 of the 32 (72%) found the end zone. If we focus in on the 19 players with a projection of at least 0.89, 14 (74%) scored. Montgomery was limited to just 12 carries in his return from injury last week, but he still found the end zone. Montgomery now has seven scores in six games and, despite missing substantial action, still ranks second in RB carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (10). It doesn't hurt that this a revenge game against a Chicago defense that has allowed nine RB touchdowns (eighth most).
Aidan Hutchinson over 0.75 sacks (-135): Hutchinson checks in with a 0.87 sack projection, which is notable because out of the 13 defenders with a projection of at least 0.85, 10 have recorded at least one full sack. What makes this one tricky, however, is that Hutchinson has been held without a sack in four consecutive games. He has 4.5 sacks in nine games, which puts him just short of his rookie-season pace (9.5 sacks in 17 games). Hutchinson's projection got a boost this week because of the matchup, as Justin Fields has taken 24 sacks in six games after leading the NFL with 55 sacks taken in 15 games in 2022. Hutchinson had 1.5 sacks in two games against the Bears last season.
Money Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-165) ; Green Bay Packers (+140) Total: 43.5; Opened: 43.5 FPI favorite: Chargers by 6 (67.2% to win outright)
Projected score: Chargers 25, Packers 21
Austin Ekeler anytime TD (-118): The analysis here is similar to Montgomery's, as Ekeler's projection checks in at 0.84. Of the 30 prior projections in the 0.76-0.92 range, 23 (77%) ended with at least one touchdown. Ekeler has been a TD machine in recent seasons, having scored 38 times during the 2022-23 campaigns. That's 12 more than any other player. Ekeler has been back at it in 2023, scoring five times in six games, including at least once in three consecutive outings. Green Bay has allowed eight RB touchdowns (11th most).
Dalton Schultz under 4.5 receptions (-119): Schultz has been terrific in his first season with Houston. The veteran tight end ranks no lower than 11th at the position in routes, targets, receptions, yardage and touchdowns. And yet, he has reached five receptions in only two out of nine games. Both of those games required at least 10 targets, whereas he's averaging 5.0 per game in his other seven outings. Schultz's 15% target share in Week 10 was his lowest since Week 4 and it may not rise a ton if Nico Collins (calf) returns from injury. Arizona has allowed the fourth-fewest TE receptions this season and only two have recorded as many as five catches against them.
Trevor Lawrence under 1.5 passing TDs (-132): Lawrence has reached two TD passes only twice in nine games. Both of those outings came against the Colts. Otherwise, the third-year quarterback has thrown just five TD passes in seven games. Tennessee has allowed 10 TD passes in nine games, having held six out of nine opponents to zero or one.
Travis Etienne Jr. under 68.5 rushing yards (-118): Etienne is enjoying a breakout season in which he ranks second in the league in carries (160) and fourth in rushing yards (618). His rushing yard average of 68.7 is right on this line, although he's fallen short of 69 yards in five out of nine games including three of his last four. The Titans have been near midpack in terms of slowing the run, but only three backs have reached 69 rushing yards against them -- two of which came in the same game against the Steelers.
Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (+600) ; Miami Dolphins (-900) Total: 46.5; Opened: 47.5 FPI favorite: Dolphins by 17.4 (90.4% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Dolphins -10
Projected score: Dolphins 25, Raiders 16
David Long Jr. under 4.5 solos (-159): Long has reached five solo tackles in only one out of nine games. That includes exactly three solos in three consecutive outings. Long has played on 69% of Miami's defensive snaps and that figure doesn't seem likely to rise much (if at all) this week with Jerome Baker healthy alongside him. The Raiders are allowing 15.4 off-ball linebacker tackles per game (9.1 solos), which is eighth fewest in the league (ninth fewest in solos).
Money Line: New York Giants (+340) ; Washington Commanders (-425) Total: 37.5; Opened: 37.5 FPI favorite: Commanders by 7.4 (71% to win outright)
Projected score: Commanders 22, Giants 15
Percy Butler over 2.5 solos (+120): Butler took over as an every-down player in Week 6 and hasn't missed a snap in the five games since. The 2022 fourth-round pick has registered at least three solo tackles in three consecutive games and is averaging 3.2 per game (4.3 during his last three outings). Butler appears to have locked up an every-down role and is in a good spot against a New York defense that has allowed the seventh-most total tackles and the fourth-most solos.
Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+430) ; San Francisco 49ers (-575) Total: 41.5; Opened: 42.5 FPI favorite: 49ers by 11.8 (81.1% to win outright)
Projected score: 49ers 28, Buccaneers 20
A pair of plus money tackle props stand out for the 49ers this week.
Fred Warner over 2.5 assists (+114): Warner has played on 95% of 49ers snaps and has at least three assists in six out of his nine games (3.4 average).
Talanoa Hufanga over 3.5 solos (+114): Hufanga has played on 93% of San Francisco's snaps and has reached four solos in six out of nine games, including four straight. He's averaging 4.2 per game, but he hasn't been below five in a game since Week 5 (6.3 average during the span).
Money Line: New York Jets (+260) ; Buffalo Bills (-320) Total: 39.5; Opened: 40.5 FPI favorite: Bills by 11.4 (80.3% to win outright)
Projected score: Bills 24, Jets 14
Greg Zuerlein under 1.5 XPM (-118): A rare kicker prop, I chose to feature this one simply to highlight the Jets' inability to find the end zone. New York has scored only eight offensive touchdowns in nine games. That includes one game with two scores, six with exactly one touchdown and two with zero -- both of which have come in the last two games. As a result, Zuerlein has made more than one extra point in only one game. The Buffalo defense hasn't been as dominant as in years past (primarily due to major injuries), but it is still allowing only 1.8 touchdowns per game. The Jets' offense found the end zone only once when these teams played in Week 1.
Money Line: Seattle Seahawks (-120) ; Los Angeles Rams (+100) Total: 46.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Rams by 2.8 (58.4% to win outright)
Projected score: Rams 23, Seahawks 22
Geno Smith under 1.5 passing TDs (+100): Smith took advantage of an elite matchup and threw for 369 yards and two touchdowns last week, but that was a rare highlight in an otherwise underwhelming campaign relative to his breakout 2022. Smith has yet to have more than two TD passes in any single game and has fallen short of two in five out of nine games. That includes a Week 1 matchup against these same Rams in which Smith was limited to 112 yards and one TD pass (a 30-13 loss in Seattle). The Rams have only allowed nine TD passes (seventh fewest on a per-game basis) and six of those came in two games (four for Dak Prescott, two for Anthony Richardson). In other words, the Rams allowed two-plus TD passes twice and a total of three passing scores in their other seven games.
Harrison Phillips under 6.5 total tackles (-123): Phillips is averaging 6.0 tackles per game, but that number is bloated by his hot start. After totaling 21 tackles during Weeks 1-2, Phillips has since ended up below 6.5 in seven of his past eight games (4.9 per-game average during the span). Phillips is busy for an interior defensive lineman (75% snap share), but he's a long shot to hit this mark, especially against a Denver defense allowing only 7.1 tackles per game to interior defenders (second lowest in the league). In fact, superstar Chris Jones is the only interior lineman to have reached six tackles against Denver.
Money Line: Philadelphia Eagles (+115) ; Kansas City Chiefs (-135) Total: 45.5; Opened: 48.5 FPI favorite: Chiefs by 3.6 (60.5% to win outright)
Projected score: Eagles 25, Chiefs 24
L'Jarius Sneed over 4.5 total tackles (+104): Sneed is averaging 4.6 tackles per game and has reached 5.0 in five out of nine games. He has played on 97% of Chiefs' defensive snaps and has worked as a shadow corner more than any other player in the league. Sneed, 26, has shadowed in nine consecutive games and figures to align against heavily targeted A.J. Brown this week. That will lead to plenty of tackle opportunities, especially in the Chiefs' man-heavy scheme.
Jalen Hurts over 8.5 rushing attempts (-103): Hurts is averaging 9.8 carries per game, which includes at least nine attempts in seven out of nine outings. That's actually a downtick from his 11.1 carries per game in 2022. Hurts reached nine carries in 14 out of 18 games last season -- and that includes 15 attempts against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have faced only one standout rushing quarterback (Justin Fields), and he had 11 carries in that Week 3 game.
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 @ Carolina Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns -1
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions -7.5
Los Angeles Chargers -3 @ Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans -4.5
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars -7
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins -13
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders -9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers -11.5
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills -7
Seattle Seahawks -1 @ Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5