Welcome to the Week 7 Fantasy Football Playbook, which kicked off Thursday night with the Jaguars at the Saints.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)
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Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens -3
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta
David Montgomery (rib) is going to miss a game or two, but Gibbs is expected back from injury this week. When Gibbs was active and Montgomery was out in Week 3, Gibbs played on 59% of snaps and posted a healthy 17-80-0 rushing line. The rookie was limited to just two receiving yards on a pair of targets, though his 56% route participation was well above his usual rate (43%, 5.7 targets/game), suggesting that the big dip in targets was a fluke. A healthy Gibbs is a lineup lock and Kutztown's Craig Reynolds is a deep-league flex. If Gibbs remains out, Reynolds would be positioned for 20-plus touches and would be in the RB1 conversation.
Over/Under: 43 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 52% (13th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders -3 @ Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, DJ Moore, Jakobi Meyers
With Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson and Travis Homer all out last week, the Bears turned to a backfield committee. D'Onta Foreman (15 carries and one target on 39 snaps) led the way, with Darrynton Evans (nine carries and one target on 24 snaps) plenty involved. Herbert (IR) won't be back anytime soon, but Johnson (concussion) could be back this week. If the impressive rookie returns, he figures to, at least, split carries with Foreman while working as the top receiving back. He'd be a fringe RB2 option. Foreman will be a RB2/flex option should Johnson remain sidelined.
Moore is Chicago's only lineup lock with Justin Fields out, but Cole Kmet is a close call. Kmet posted receiving lines of 7-85-2 and 5-42-1 during Weeks 4 and 5, but plummeted to 2-9-0 on three targets with Fields leaving early in Week 6. Kmet sits in the top 10 in TE receptions, yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. Still, not having Fields makes him extremely risky. Kmet is a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 36.2 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 71% (5th highest)
Cleveland Browns -2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Jerome Ford, Michael Pittman Jr., Amari Cooper
I'm calling Taylor a lineup lock with six teams on a bye and after a Week 6 showing in which he led the Colts in carries (8) and soaked up six targets while playing on a season-high 43% of snaps. It was a big step forward after playing on 16% of snaps in his 2023 debut the week prior, and another leap forward this week seems probable. This isn't an easy matchup as the Browns have yet to allow any back over 14.2 fantasy points, but Taylor is a viable RB2 and Zack Moss is a RB/flex.
Over/Under: 36.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 67% (8th highest)
Buffalo Bills -8.5 @ New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs
Latavius Murray played on 47% of the Bills' offensive snaps and handled 12 carries (both season highs) in Week 6. It was clear Murray's role was increased even prior to the Damien Harris injury and serves as a reminder that Cook has a ceiling on both his usage and production. Cook remains a lineup lock for now, even though he has scored only one touchdown this season and is outside the top 15 in RB carries, targets, touches and expected TDs. Murray belongs on benches and has some sold insurance value.
Over/Under: 39 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 91% (Highest)
Washington Commanders -2.5 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Terry McLaurin, Darren Waller
Brian Robinson Jr. has had only one weekly fantasy finish better than 15th this season, but the second-year back has been solid, providing four outings with at least 13 points. On the plus side, Robinson has scored in three out of six games, but he's also capped out at 12 touches in three of his past four outings. Robinson will benefit from a great matchup this week against a Giants defense that is no better than fourth-worst in carries, rushing yards, rushing scores and YPC allowed to running backs. Robinson is a mid-to-back-end RB2.
Curtis Samuel is back on the fantasy radar after finding the end zone in three consecutive games. Samuel had five-plus touches in all three outings and now has four 50-plus yard games on the season. Samuel has rarely been much of a TD scorer, but his 2.9 expected TD mark (15th among WRs) suggests his output is legit. Especially with Jahan Dotson's fall to irrelevance in this offense, Samuel is on the WR3 radar this week against a Giants defense that has allowed double-digit fantasy points to nine different wideouts this season.
Over/Under: 36.8 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 55% (12th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Drake London has reeled off consecutive top-20 fantasy outings and is working his way back to "lineup lock" consideration. London has now either scored or reached 78 yards in four of his last five games and he's averaging 8.0 targets per game since his Week 1 goose egg. London, who posted a career-high 125 yards in Week 6, will remain a risky proposition in the league's run-heaviest offense, but he's producing enough to keep him in the WR3 discussion.
With six teams on a bye this week, you can make a case for starting both Falcons tight ends. Kyle Pitts has posted 7-87-0 and 4-43-1 receiving lines in his last two games, whereas Jonnu Smith's last three lines (4-36-1, 6-67-0, 6-95-0) have resulted in three straight top-12 fantasy outings. The duo has combined for a hefty 36% target share.
Over/Under: 37.3 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 70% (6th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams -3
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Lineup locks: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens
Kyren Williams (ankle) and Ronnie Rivers (PCL) are both out this week, which positions rookie Zach Evans and journeyman Royce Freeman as the Rams' top RB options. The duo has combined for just four touches this season (all from Evans last week), so there's obviously a lot of uncertainty here. Evans is the "shiny new toy" -- he was an extremely explosive playmaker during his collegiate years -- but Freeman is the more experienced NFL player (394 carries and 85 receptions in 68 games). A shared backfield seems likely, with Evans being the preferred (albeit risky) RB2/flex
Over/Under: 39.1 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 67% (7th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks -8
Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
With James Conner sidelined last week, the Cardinals rolled with a backfield committee. Keaontay Ingram (26 snaps, 10 carries, 2 targets), Emari Demercado (33 snaps, 2 carries, 1 target) and Damien Williams (12 snaps, 8 carries, 1 target) all had some level of involvement. The usage suggests that Ingram is the top desperation flex option, but this is a situation to avoid, especially against a Seattle defense that has allowed a league-low 2.7 YPC to running backs.
After leaning heavily on Zach Ertz during the first five weeks of the season, the Cardinals took a longer look at Trey McBride in Week 6. Ertz out-snapped McBride 212-115 and out-targeted him 32-11 during Weeks 1-5, whereas McBride held an edge in both snaps (43-34) and targets (5-4) in Week 6. McBride produced 62 yards in the game, which cleared Ertz's season high of 56. The new-look TE room means neither is a viable fantasy starter, though McBride is a name to monitor.
Over/Under: 47.8 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 75% (3rd highest)
Green Bay Packers -1 @ Denver Broncos
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Courtland Sutton
Need a QB streamer this week? Jordan Love might be your best option ... and Russell Wilson could work as well. Love has produced 17-plus fantasy points in four out of five starts and will face a Denver defense that has allowed the most passing scores (14) and second-most passing yards and QB fantasy points this season. Wilson is coming off a dud, but he's delivered four top-12 fantasy outings this season. He's a fringe starter against a Green Bay defense that has allowed only one quarterback to reach 15 fantasy points this season, though their competition hasn't been overly intimidating (ATL, CHI, DET, LV, NO).
Javonte Williams returned from injury last week and stepped into a new-look committee backfield. Williams soaked up 10 carries and zero targets on 17 snaps, with Jaleel McLaughlin handling seven carries and two targets on 20 snaps and Samaje Perine reduced to zero carries and a pair of targets on eight snaps. Williams has yet to produce double-digit fantasy points in any game this season and it's unlikely the impressive McLaughlin will disappear completely. This is a situation best avoided, though Williams is your top RB2/flex option.
It appears Jerry Jeudy's days could be numbered in Denver. The former first-round pick has seen a dip in playing time and targets this season, including a season-low four targets in Week 6. Jeudy has yet to clear 13.1 fantasy points in any game and he hasn't found the end zone since Week 14 of last season. A top-20 fantasy WR option in 2022, Jeudy has been reduced to WR3/flex territory.
Over/Under: 44.9 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 65% (10th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Isiah Pacheco, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce
In the three games that Mike Williams (now out for the season) left injured or was sidelined, Joshua Palmer posted receiving lines of 4-66-1, 3-77-0 and 4-60-0. Those aren't earth-shattering lines, but he reached seven targets and double-digit fantasy points in all three. Palmer is clearly ahead of rookie Quentin Johnston on the depth chart and his solid play in Los Angeles' pass-heavy offense has him on the weekly WR3 radar. That's the case again this week, despite a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest WR fantasy points and 5.9 yards per target (second lowest) this season.
Over/Under: 52.8 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 74% (4th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday 8:20 PM ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, D'Andre Swift, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
This is a rare game in which everyone on the fantasy radar is a lineup lock, but one other player to keep an eye on this week is Jeff Wilson Jr. The veteran could return from IR this week and, while his role may be limited initially, he could find his way onto the flex radar fairly soon, or at least until De'Von Achane returns. Miami's RB room has already produced 280 fantasy points this season, which is 79 more than any other team. Wilson should be on benches in most formats.
Over/Under: 57.5 (Highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 66% (9th highest)
San Francisco 49ers -7 @ Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Monday 8:15 PM ET
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Alexander Mattison, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle
In Minnesota's first full game without Justin Jefferson, the WR usage was as follows: K.J. Osborn (five targets on 32 routes), Addison (five targets on 32 routes), Brandon Powell (four targets on 25 routes) and Trishton Jackson (zero targets on four snaps). Addison was the top fantasy producer and has scored four times this season, which positions him as a lineup lock. Osborn has yet to clear 12.4 fantasy points in any game this season and is more of a WR3/flex.
If McCaffrey (oblique) is out this week, the 49ers may lean on a backfield committee. Last week, it was Jordan Mason (five carries and zero targets on 15 snaps) who was the next man up, with Elijah Mitchell (two carries and zero targets on seven snaps) also involved and Tyrion Davis-Price inactive. It's unclear who would lead this backfield, but Week 6 suggests Mason would be the best desperation flex option of the group, with Mitchell just behind. Avoid if possible.
Over/Under: 45.5 (4th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 85% (2nd highest)