Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
Week 7's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, though this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and were correct as of time of publication.
Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (-140); Chicago Bears (+118) Total: 37.5; Opened: NL FPI favorite: Bears by 1.3 (53.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: Raiders 20, Bears 16
Tremaine Edmunds over 7.5 total tackles (-152): We're lacking many standout plays in this game, but Edmunds has slight value. The veteran linebacker produced at least 8.0 tackles in his first five games with Chicago before a rare slip to 6.0 in Week 6. Edmunds was on the field for 100% of the snaps last week, so the dip in tackles seems fluky. He's a good bet to get back on track against the Jimmy Garoppolo-less Raiders.
Money Line: Cleveland Browns (-170); Indianapolis Colts (+143) Total: 40.5; Opened: 39 FPI favorite: Browns by 3.6 (60.3% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Browns -1
Projected Score: Browns 21, Colts 16
Matt Gay under 6.5 kicking points (-133): Gay has gone over this line in four out of six games, but getting to FG range might be tricky for an Anthony Richardson-less Colts offense against an elite Cleveland defense. The Browns' defense has allowed the fewest yards (200.4) and points per game (12.6) this season and opposing kickers have attempted just 1.6 field goals per game against them. Gay has been his usual terrific self (11-of-12 on field goals and perfect on extra points), but two made field goals and an extra point may be a lot to ask in this matchup.
Money Line: Buffalo Bills (-420); New England Patriots (+320) Total: 40; Opened: 40 FPI favorite: Bills by 12.3 (81.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Bills 26, Patriots 13
Mac Jones under 0.5 pass TDs (+136): Jones has gone without a single passing score in three straight games and is set to face a Buffalo defense that has surrendered a grand total of four TD passes through six games. That's nothing new from a Bills squad that held opponents without a passing score seven times in 2022. Speaking of last season, Jones had zero TD passes in four out of 13 "full" games in 2022, so a goose egg in the category wouldn't be a shock. Jones has thrown a total of four touchdown passes over three career regular-season starts against Buffalo.
Money Line: Washington Commanders (-145); New York Giants (+122) Total: 37.5; Opened: NL FPI favorite: Commanders by 1.2 (53.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Commanders 19, Giants 18
Kayvon Thibodeaux over 0.25 sacks (-120): Thibodeaux is already up to 4.0 sacks for the season after registering 4.0 in 14 games as a rookie. The 2022 first-round pick is playing on 87% of defensive snaps (a huge number for an edge rusher), which has allowed him at least one full sack in five of six games. Sam Howell, meanwhile, has taken an absurd 34 sacks in six games, including at least 5.0 in four consecutive games.
Money Line: Atlanta Falcons (+118); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-140) Total: 37; Opened: 36.5 FPI favorite: Buccaneers by 1.4 (54% to win outright)
Projected Score: Buccaneers 22, Falcons 16
Devin White over 6.5 tackles (-106): White has played on 98% of Tampa Bay's defensive snaps and is averaging 6.6 tackles per game. The linebacker has reached 7.0 tackles in three out of five games -- a mark he hit in 10 out of 17 games last season. White's projection gets a boost this week against a run-heavy Atlanta offense that has allowed 20.3 off-ball linebacker tackles per game (third most). Eight different linebackers have reached 7.0 tackles against them in six games this season.
Money Line: Detroit Lions (+135); Baltimore Ravens (-160) Total: 43; Opened: 41 FPI favorite: Ravens by 4.4 (62.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Lions 22, Ravens 21
Lamar Jackson under 1.5 pass TDs (-200): Jackson has fallen short of two passing scores in four out of six games. In fact, tracing back to when he took over as Baltimore's starter in 2019 and excluding games in which he only played on a few snaps, Jackson has been under two TD passes in 38 out of 65 games (58%), which includes seven out of 11 games in 2022. Baltimore has been its usual run-heavy self at the goal line, having scored 64% of its touchdowns on the ground (highest in the NFL), with an expected rate of 52% (fourth highest). Jackson will face an improved Detroit defense that has allowed only three games with two-plus passing scores in six tries this season.
Kyle Hamilton over 3.5 total tackles (-127): Hamilton has produced at least 4.0 tackles in three out of five full games this season, falling just short with 3.0 in Weeks 1 and 5. Hamilton played on 99% of defensive snaps during those outings and was on his way to another every-down showing in Week 6 prior to being ejected. Hamilton gets plenty of run in the box and he may get a few more tackle opportunities this week with Marcus Williams (hamstring) seemingly doubtful. Detroit is allowing 16.0 safety tackles per game, which is fourth most in the league.
Money Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (+143); Los Angeles Rams (-170) Total: 44; Opened: 42.5 FPI favorite: Rams by 3 (58.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Rams 22, Steelers 17
Puka Nacua over 4.5 receptions (-179) and over 60.5 receiving yards (-118): These are Nacua's lowest reception and receiving yardage props on the books this season, which isn't shocking after his career-low four-catch, 26-yard showing in Week 6. The rookie had gone over in his receiving props in all prior weeks and has at least five receptions and 71 yards in five out of six games. Despite the Week 6 dud, Nacua still handled a 33% target share, which aligns exactly with his 33% share for the season. Nacua is a bounce-back candidate against a Steelers' defense that has allowed the eighth-most WR receptions and second-most WR receiving yards per game this season. Seven different wideouts have hit five receptions and 60 yards against them over five games.
Kenneth Walker III anytime TD (-154): The gift that keeps on giving, Walker has now scored in four consecutive games. Despite already serving his bye, Walker leads the NFL in expected TDs (6.4) as well as in carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (10). Walker's six scores rank fifth among running backs. This is a terrific matchup against an Arizona defense that has allowed nine RB touchdowns (third most), including at least one in five out of six games. This bet will be even more valuable if running-mate Zach Charbonnet (hamstring) is sidelined.
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-120); Denver Broncos (+100) Total: 45; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Packers by 2.5 (57.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Packers 25, Broncos 20
Jordan Love over 1.5 pass TDs (+106): Since throwing three TD passes in his first two games of the season, Love has totaled just two over his past three outings (although he did run for two scores during this span). This one is really about the matchup, of course, as Love is facing a Denver defense that has surrendered a league-high 14 TD passes, including at least two in four of six games. This one has value down to -111.
Money Line: Los Angeles Chargers (+196); Kansas City Chiefs (-240) Total: 48; Opened: 47.5 FPI favorite: Chiefs by 5.5 (65.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Chiefs 30, Chargers 23
Patrick Mahomes under 307.5 pass + rush yards (-115): Mahomes has been under this line in four of six games, including three of four when the line is over 300 yards. In fact, that aligns with the leaguewide trend, as seven of eight lines over 300 yards have ended up with the under this season. Mahomes has gone under this line in six of nine career games against the Chargers, although the three exceptions have all come over the past three seasons. He's averaging a career low 7.1 yards per pass attempt, which is related to a career-low 6.7 average depth of throw. Los Angeles has allowed three out of five opposing quarterbacks to reach this mark.
L'Jarius Sneed over 4.5 total tackles (-118): Kansas City's top corner has played on 97% of snaps and is averaging 5.0 tackles. He's reached 5.0 in four of six games and one of the unders came when he was limited to just 82% of snaps in Week 3. The Chargers' offense is allowing 17.0 cornerback tackles per game, which is highest in the league. Eight different corners have reached five tackles against them in five games.
Money Line: Miami Dolphins (+118); Philadelphia Eagles (-140) Total: 51.5; Opened: 51.5 FPI favorite: Dolphins by 2.9 (58.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Dolphins 31, Eagles 27
Raheem Mostert anytime TD (+100): How is this even money?! Mostert leads the NFL with 11 touchdowns and has at least one in five of six games. The lone exception was a Week 4 game against a good Bills defense in which fellow RB De'Von Achane scored twice. Achane has since been placed on IR, which led to an uptick in usage for Mostert last week (17 carries and three targets on 60% of snaps), as well as three touchdowns. Incredibly, Miami's backs have scored 19 touchdowns, whereas only three other teams have cleared even 16 totaloffensive touchdowns.
Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTs (+106): Hurts threw three INTs in Week 6 and has at least thrown at least one in four of six games. In fact, Hurts now has more INTs in 2023 (7) than he had all of last season, including the playoffs (6). Miami has only snared two INTs this season, but Hurts' struggles and the rare potential for a pass-heavy game script for the Eagles' offense suggests we lean to the over.
Money Line: San Francisco 49ers (-305); Minnesota Vikings (+240) Total: 44; Opened: 44 FPI favorite: 49ers by 5.5 (65.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: 49ers 28, Vikings 17
Nick Bosa under 0.75 sacks (+124): Bosa is a superstar, but the reigning NFL defensive player of the year has registered a full sack in only two of six games. Bosa's pass-rush win rate is similar to past years, but his 2.5 sacks put him well behind his 2022 pace (when he produced 18.5). Perhaps some regression to the mean is on tap, but his performance this season makes this a fine value at plus money. Kirk Cousins' sack rate (15 on 251 dropbacks) is near the league's average.
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 @ Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns -3 @ Indianapolis Colts
Buffalo Bills -8.5 @ New England Patriots
Washington Commanders -2.5 @ New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens -3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams -3
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks -8
Green Bay Packers -1 @ Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
San Francisco 49ers -7 @ Minnesota Vikings