Buffalo Bills stars Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are a renowned top QB/WR fantasy duo, each a top individual scoring option. Miami Dolphins duo Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill qualify as well, along with the following pairings of Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown of the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers starters Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen. It hardly took much imagination to envision Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley pairing up to dominate defenses this season, and thus helping carry myriad fantasy football managers to championships.
As we enter Week 11, the 6-3 Jaguars lead the AFC South, looking to rebound after the San Francisco 49ers embarrassed them at home and ended their five-game winning streak. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. and defense keyed prior victories. Lawrence and Ridley? Not so much. The Jaguars host the Tennessee Titans this Sunday and both Lawrence and Ridley are rostered in fewer ESPN standard leagues than they were a week ago. This is a big game for their fantasy value moving forward. One might say they are firmly on the proverbial Hot Seat.
Lawrence, the can't-miss No. 1 pick out of Clemson with the long blond locks, emerged in his second NFL season and averaged 17.4 PPR points per game. Only six quarterbacks and 17 overall players scored more fantasy points than Lawrence did last season, which is why he was modestly coveted in preseason ESPN average live drafts this season. Expectations were rather high.
Things are not going so well this season. Lawrence averages 13.7 fantasy points, behind 20 other qualified quarterbacks, including Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter Baker Mayfield, disappointing and injured Cleveland Browns starter Deshaun Watson, and underwhelming Los Angeles Rams starter Matthew Stafford. Lawrence has yet to score 20 PPR points in any game. Will Levis, Tyrod Taylor and Andy Dalton each managed to do that! Last week, Lawrence scored a mere 2.1 PPR points versus the 49ers. His fantasy teams suffered. Some have moved on.
Ridley, the former Atlanta Falcons superstar who caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards in 2020, then missed a year-plus with a gambling suspension and mental health woes, caught 101 yards worth of passes and a touchdown from Lawrence in Week 1. All looked well. Ridley has reached 15 PPR points in only one game since, catching more than two passes in only four games. Ridley often looks invisible running routes slower than we recall, struggling to lose defenders, and colleague Christian Kirk easily surpassed him in targets and production. Ridley is No. 47 at WR in PPR points per game. That was not supposed to happen.
The ballyhooed Lawrence/Ridley duo was supposed to rock this season. Lawrence struggled as a rookie in 2021, but everyone gave him a pass because the Jaguars lacked competent coaching. Enter Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson, who brought out the best in Lawrence last season, coaxing more accuracy and a considerably higher completion rate, helping him take the right kind of chances and throwing nine fewer interceptions. Lawrence needed a tall, speedy wide receiver to stretch the field, and Ridley was supposed to be the perfect fit.
What is the problem?
Ridley initially came as advertised, but since Week 1 has looked like a player who missed considerable playing time. Lawrence was never a consistently accurate deep thrower, completing fewer than 35% of his attempts of 20-plus yards last season, and adding Ridley hasn't helped. Etienne Jr. has been terrific, the No. 3 RB in PPR formats this season, but Lawrence has actually run more and better than last season, averaging 5.1 yards per rush and achieving three 20-yard runs, more than his prior career total. He hasn't rushed for a touchdown after doing so five times last season. Last week he threw two interceptions, lost a fumble and was sacked five times. He completed one pass when pressured.
The Titans permit the seventh-most PPR points to wide receivers this season, and the Jaguars topped them twice last season, with Lawrence throwing for 368 passing yards and three touchdowns in the road game. Lawrence was supposed to consistently shred defenses such as these, with Ridley overpowering the overmatched cornerbacks. It hasn't happened much. If it doesn't happen Sunday, more fantasy managers will move on from this disappointing duo, and who can blame them.
Other QBs on the hot seat
Titans rookie Levis scored 26.62 PPR points in his Week 8 debut, and he has scored 14.64 PPR points over two starts since then. This is not a trend fantasy managers enjoy. Levis may be playing for his starting job this weekend.
Chicago Bears starter Justin Fields returns from missing four games with a dislocated thumb to face the Detroit Lions. Fields has a pair of four-touchdown games this season, and four other touchdowns (passing and rushing) in the other four games. He gets no pass in fantasy here, and neither does his top WR DJ Moore, who last reached 60 receiving yards in Week 5.
The Rams' Stafford returns from a two-week hiatus (one was the bye week) to face the Seahawks, but he is rostered in only 30% of ESPN leagues. As with Lawrence, Stafford has yet to score 20 fantasy points in a game. This may be his last chance in superflex formats to inspire much confidence.
RBs on the hot seat
Perhaps few are looking at the actual numbers, but Dallas Cowboys star Tony Pollard earned a top-10 ranking this week despite scoring single-digit PPR points in five of the past six games. Last week, versus the lowly Giants, backup Rico Dowdle outshined him. Pollard needs to score double-digit fantasy points against the Carolina Panthers this week or... well, maybe few will notice.
Is this a big game for Titans star Derrick Henry? Probably not. Everyone still loves Henry, even though he rushed for 24 yards at Tampa Bay last week. Henry has famously shredded the Jaguars in his stellar career, averaging better than 100 rushing yards and a touchdown per game. As with Pollard, we expect him to score big in this one because of the opponent. What if he doesn't?
New York Jets starter Breece Hall rushed for 177 yards in Week 5 at Denver. Since then, he has rushed for 134 yards in four games, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. OK, so it is not really his fault, as the lack of a competent passing game makes it easy for defenses to stop the running game, but this is fantasy. Bottom line, we need numbers. Hall has 20.5 PPR points over the past two games.
Other WRs/TEs on the hot seat
Stafford's top targets bear watching this week, since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were held to single-digit PPR points in each of their past two games. Nobody wants to sit Kupp, or September darling Nacua, but we may have to if this offense struggles.
Expectations are low for Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young, but he kept WR Adam Thielen viable for a terrific six-game stretch. Over the past two games, Thielen has scored 18.1 PPR points. The Cowboys will surely pressure Young, and only the Jets permit fewer PPR points to WRs. Why rely on Thielen?
Green Bay Packers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs represent two of the most dropped wide receivers in ESPN leagues over the past week. Most Chargers games seem to be shootouts, so perhaps these young players turn their disappointing seasons around because of the expected style of game on Sunday.
Let's close this week with the team we opened with. Jaguars TE Evan Engram ranks third at the position in receptions and targets, but he has scored nary a touchdown, same as you and me! Each of the other top 20 tight end scorers have scored. In fact, more than 50 tight ends have scored a touchdown this season, including Lawrence Cager, Josh Whyle and Quintin Morris. Engram remains a top-10 fantasy tight end anyway thanks to volume, but it sure would be nice if he scored a touchdown!