Throughout the NFL regular season, we'll meet here on Thursdays to break down the film from a fantasy football perspective. I'm looking for trends and tendencies on both sides of the ball to give fantasy managers a jump when they set their weekly lineups. Schemes matter. So does offensive deployment in weekly matchups. And remember, the game tape always tells us a story.
This week, we'll start with a dual-threat quarterback who played productive football in his first game back from injury, before moving on to a running back getting volume and a wide receiver in a positive matchup. Plus, there are players with question marks and three more to monitor this weekend.
All references to fantasy scoring are for PPR leagues unless otherwise noted.
Players to upgrade in Week 11
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Murray scored 17.26 points in his first game back since suffering an ACL injury late last season. I thought he played pretty good football, too, throwing for 249 yards, while adding 33 yards rushing and a touchdown on a red zone carry. Murray displayed his sudden-movement traits on designed rushes and second-reaction scrambles, and he also had three explosive-play throws. Based on what I saw on the tape, I'll take Murray, and his dual-threat ability, as a fringe QB1 this week against the Texans.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Williams has caught a touchdown in each of his past two games on schemed red zone concepts, and his total volume is up. Williams saw 25 touches in the Broncos' Monday night win over the Bills, en route to 21.9 points, and he has now had at least 18 touches in his past three games. He's playing downhill in the run game, and his short-area speed is back, too. He's quick to hit that second level. Yes, Williams gets a tougher matchup in Week 11 versus the Vikings' defense, but I'm betting on the volume and offensive deployment here. He's a solid RB2 for me this week.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kirk caught six of a team-high 11 targets in the Week 10 loss to the 49ers, finishing with 104 yards receiving and 14.4 fantasy points. He worked the quicks and screens underneath, while also stretching the defense at the third level of the field. And he gets a much more positive matchup in Week 11 against a Titans defense that is allowing 38.6 PPG to wide receivers. With Kirk's ability to provide consistent fantasy production -- double-digit points in seven of nine games -- he's a fringe WR2 in my rankings this week.
Players I have questions about in Week 11
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
I don't like the matchup for Thielen (or quarterback Bryce Young) this week against Dallas. The Cowboys' defense is allowing just 25.7 PPG to wide receivers this season, the second-lowest total in the NFL. The Cowboys play man coverage a league-leading rate of 67.3% of the time, so they will challenge receivers. Thielen has at least 10 targets in four of his past five games, so while he should still be in your lineup this week, he'll have to work to uncover in this matchup. I dropped him down to the lower-tier WR2 range.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield has thrown multiple TD passes in three straight games, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in each. He's seeing it fast from the pocket and playing with an aggressive throwing mentality. He's down in the mid-level QB2 range for me this week, however, because of the matchup with the San Francisco defense. The 49ers are a top-five unit against QBs, surrendering just 12.3 PPG. The defensive front creates pocket disruption, while the back seven plays to depth in the 49ers' defined coverage schemes. I'd sit Mayfield for this one.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Pacheco has scored fewer than seven points in each of his past two games, and he has scored just one touchdown in his past four. Plus, the matchup Monday night versus the Eagles is a rough one. Philly is allowing a league-low 14.2 PPG to running backs this season. I see a pass-heavy game plan from Andy Reid to target the Eagles' secondary. You can still play Pacheco as an RB2/flex this week, but I don't have a ton of confidence here.
Players to monitor in Week 11
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Back in Week 8, when Levis tossed four touchdowns in his first pro start, I picked him up for a superflex league I play in. However, Levis hasn't thrown a touchdown since, and he has registered a total QBR of 29.3 over his past two games, scoring fewer than 10 fantasy points in each. Let's see if the rookie can play more productive football in Week 11 against the Jaguars, because he has the arm talent and movement traits to help your lineup.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Freiermuth hasn't played since Week 4 (hamstring), but he's expected to be activated for Sunday's game versus Cleveland. We know Freiermuth has the traits to stretch the seams and work the dirty areas of the field as an outlet for quarterback Kenny Pickett, but this Pittsburgh passing game has been really shaky and unproductive. Still, with Freiermuth rostered in only 37.9% of ESPN leagues, he's a player to monitor at a shallow position in fantasy.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
I wrote up Dowdle as a potential deeper-league streaming option this week after he rushed for 79 yards and touchdown on 12 carries in last Sunday's game against the Giants. However, with Dowdle doing most of his work late in that blowout win, I want to see if he can generate enough volume moving forward as the No. 2 behind Tony Pollard. He plays with north/south juice on the tape.