Here's where we rely on bracket dynamics. When we get amazing upsets and Cinderella stories in one round of a tournament, order is usually restored with chalky outcomes in the next. And when we begin with extreme chalk, as we did in the first round of the College Football Playoff, we get some thrilling, tight, heavyweight matchups in the next round.
Or maybe we get the best of both worlds? The first-ever CFP quarterfinals start with another pair of potential underdog stories, with Boise State (against Penn State) and Arizona State (against Texas) making their playoff debuts. But we follow that with two games that feature evenly matched opponents: Ohio State and Oregon meet in a rematch of a one-point regular-season battle, then Georgia and Notre Dame square off for the fourth time. The first three meetings were decided by a total of 14 points, and this one has a 2-point spread.
The first round might have been blowout-heavy, but trust bracket dynamics. Here's everything you need to know about the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
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Playoff projections
Boise State-Penn State
Arizona State-Texas
Oregon-Ohio State
Georgia-Notre Dame
Biggest plays for each team
Projections
According to SP+, Ohio State and Oregon are the two best teams in college football. The winner of that quarterfinal might play the third-best remaining team, Texas. It's a top-heavy bracket, and it has produced a wide-open field. Of the eight quarterfinalists, six have between a 13% and 20% chance of winning the national title.
These odds were determined by simulating the bracket 10,000 times, but in case you're someone who enjoys reading the last page when starting a book, I plucked out one random simulation just for fun. Here's simulation No. 3,304, aka a guarantee of what you'll see in the next few weeks:
Quarterfinals: Oregon beats Ohio State, Arizona State upsets Texas, Penn State beats Boise State, Georgia beats Notre Dame
Semifinals: Oregon beats Arizona State, Georgia beats Penn State
Final: Georgia beats Oregon
Congrats, Dawgs.
Actually, let's do another one that's more fun. This is simulation No. 89. Sign me up.
Quarterfinals: Ohio State over Oregon, Arizona State upsets Texas, Boise State upsets Penn State, Georgia over Notre Dame
Semifinals: Arizona State upsets Ohio State (revenge for the 1997 Rose Bowl!), Boise State upsets Georgia (backing up the 2011 win!)
Final: Arizona State over Boise State
Cam Skattebo versus Ashton Jeanty for the ring? Yes. Absolutely, yes.
On to the game previews!
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State (12-1) vs. No. 6 Penn State (12-2)
Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
First, a word about playoff blowouts: They happen. In every sport, everywhere. The NFL is obsessed with parity, and last year's six-game wild-card round still featured five games decided by 14 or more points. The NBA's parity meter is high too, but the last three series of the 2023-24 playoffs were a four-game sweep and two five-game wins. Even in parity-friendly circumstances, you can't guarantee every game is close, and, well, college football has never been interested in parity-friendly circumstances.
We've spent the past week in a ridiculous debate about strength of schedule and who belonged in the CFP -- an argument that probably should have been put to bed by the SEC's Tennessee getting manhandled as badly as anyone -- and this argument misses the best part of playoff expansion: inclusion.
An expansive playoff race ties the sport together in a pretty cool way, and it made November incredible. Boise State-UNLV had playoff stakes! Arizona State's late-season charge did too! There was a reason for BSU fans to care about how Army and Tulane were doing late in the year! Alabama fans had a rooting interest in SMU and Miami games! And if the trade-off for that was a few non-competitive playoff games, which we frequently got in the four-team playoff anyway, then so be it.
For the upset-hungry among us, it doesn't seem at first glance that the Fiesta Bowl will satisfy our cravings. James Franklin's Penn State Nittany Lions are 33-1 as favorites since the start of the 2022 season. They eliminate uncertainty against less talented teams as well as anyone in the country, and Boise State hasn't beaten a team this highly ranked since Kellen Moore & Co. took down No. 3 TCU to end the 2009 season.
Still, it would be poetic if the team that so beautifully disrupted the BCS era pulled the first upset of the CFP era as well (and at the site of maybe its greatest triumph, no less). So let's lay out what would need to happen for such an upset to play out.
1. Ashton Jeanty runs wild
It's a fun twist that the Group of 5's playoff representative has the best player in the CFP, but for that to matter, Jeanty has to go off.
Penn State's run defense isn't flawless: The Nittany Lions rank 45th in rushing success rate allowed -- how frequently the opposition gains 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth. Running back duos such as USC's Woody Marks and Quinten Joyner, Ohio State's Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson and Oregon's Jordan James and Noah Whittington all found success against them. But they create a lot of negative plays -- they stuff 27% of non-sack rushes at or behind the line (third nationally) -- and Jeanty and the Broncos are willing to suffer some negatives (52nd in stuff rate) in the name of extreme positives.
Jeanty's numbers are ridiculous. In his three least prolific games of the season, he averaged 134.7 yards per game. That average would rank fourth nationally. In his other 10 games, he averaged 209.3 yards. He lives up to all hype at all times, but the negative plays will be key. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has played mostly mistake-free ball in 2024, but against the three best defenses he faced (per SP+: Oregon and UNLV twice), he completed just 53% of his passes at 9.7 yards per completion. Receiver Cam Camper, an Indiana transfer, averages 15.2 yards per catch, but if he doesn't make a big-play reception, no one does. Doing damage on passing downs against an excellent Penn State secondary appears to be a lot to ask.
2. Touchdowns, not field goals
If Team A is scoring TDs in the red zone while Team B is settling for FGs or blowing chances, Team A doesn't need to generate as many chances to win. BSU is custom-made to win this battle: The Broncos' defense is 37th in red zone TD rate allowed (54.8%), and the offense is fifth (76.7%).
One problem: Penn State is even better. The Nittany Lions score TDs on 71.7% of red zone trips (22nd) and allow them on just 42.9% (third). Pick-sixes helped PSU build an early lead over SMU in the first round, but red zone play sealed the win: Penn State scored touchdowns on both red zone trips, while SMU came away with just three points in four trips. Winning here is vital for the Broncos.
3. Minimize big plays for PSU
Similar to BSU's, Penn State's passing game isn't incredibly explosive: Only 8.1% of Drew Allar's dropbacks have gained 20-plus yards (127th out of 130 QBR-eligible passers). But the Nittany Lions still rank ninth in yards per play because of excellent pass efficiency -- tight end Tyler Warren is a bit of a cheat code in that regard -- and plenty of punch from Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the run game.
Though Jeanty gives BSU an avenue to winning the big-play battle (especially if Camper comes up big a couple of times), the Broncos have by far the most all-or-nothing defense in the CFP.
Boise State ranks 26th in success rate allowed with excellent disruption levels -- second in sacks per dropback (10.0%) and 23rd in havoc rate* (18.9%). (Havoc rate is total tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups and forced fumbles divided by total plays.)
But the Broncos have to take risks to get there, and when something goes wrong, it goes very wrong. They allow 14.2 yards per successful play (130th), and 7.6% of opponents' plays gain 20-plus yards (109th). PSU's natural efficiency advantages will likely mean the Nittany Lions win more plays Tuesday night. BSU has to win the right plays to pull the upset, and that probably can't happen without winning the explosiveness battle.
Current line: PSU -11 | SP+ projection: PSU by 11.5 | FPI projection: PSU by 5.4
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State (11-2) vs. No. 5 Texas (12-2)
Wednesday, 1 p.m., ESPN
Eleven weeks into the 2024 season, a lot of the heavy lifting had been done. Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State had all virtually clinched their CFP bids, and Texas, Penn State and Boise State weren't far behind. But Arizona State's CFP odds, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, stood at just 2.7%, behind 29 teams, including Louisville and Louisiana.
We felt we had a good idea of who the main characters were in the playoff saga, but the Sun Devils had other ideas. In Weeks 12 and 13, they took down two of the Big 12's three front-runners, Kansas State and BYU, and after a blowout of rival Arizona and some good tiebreaker fortune, the Sun Devils were in Jerry World, playing for the Big 12 title and a CFP spot. And despite a key injury -- Jordyn Tyson, by far their leading receiver, is out for the season -- they crushed Iowa State 45-19.
ASU finished the regular season as the hottest team in FBS, overachieving against SP+ projections by 19.9 points per game during a six-game winning streak. In four of those wins, Cam Skattebo averaged 162 rushing yards, but the Sun Devils beat UCF without him and controlled K-State with Skattebo averaging 2.9 yards per carry. The defense overachieved as much as the offense.
How much does a hot streak matter when it has been nearly four weeks since your last game? And how much does it matter that, the last time Texas played, all the Longhorns' strengths and weaknesses were scrambled?
Over its last seven regular-season games, Texas' offense underachieved against projections by more than a touchdown per game, establishing the run pretty well but passing inconsistently and turning the ball over too much. The defense made sure that wasn't an issue, playing maybe the best pass defense in the country in that span, but against Clemson in the first round, the Longhorns allowed 336 passing yards and six completions of at least 22 yards. Luckily, that underachieving offense dominated: Backs Jaydon Blue, Quintrevion Wisner and Jerrick Gibson rushed 38 times for 281 yards and four scores, and though Quinn Ewers was sacked twice and threw an interception (Texas is down to 49th in passing success rate), the Longhorns averaged 6.9 yards per play and won comfortably.
Confusing sample aside, Texas heads to Atlanta as a bigger favorite than Penn State. Let's carve out an upset script for the Sun Devils.
1. Skattebo > Wisner, Blue & Co. For the season, Texas still leans on its defense. The Longhorns are first in yards allowed per successful play, and they force turnovers at a rate more than high enough to offset their offense's mistakes. But the Longhorns are also only 63rd in rushing success rate allowed. And if this is a close game, Skattebo's extreme rushing efficiency will likely be the primary reason.
Arizona State ranks seventh in rushing success rate, and ASU's offense revolves around Skattebo. His relentless success and tackle-breaking abilities created downfield passing opportunities for Sam Leavitt against Iowa State; the Michigan State transfer threw six passes 20 or more yards and completed four of them for 149 yards even without Tyson. The Sun Devils rolled past a very good Cyclones defense, and though they likely won't see the same level of success against the second-best defense in the country, it does create an upset path.
Unless Texas doesn't run the ball even better. ASU's bend-don't-break defense ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush (excluding sacks) and 38th in rushing success rate allowed. Texas had no success running against Georgia but went for 250, 240 and 292 yards in its last three non-UGA games. If the Longhorns top ASU on a per-carry basis, the upset path all but vanishes.
2. Win the opening 20 minutes
ASU showed some nice comeback flair in charging back to beat UCF without Skattebo, but most of the Sun Devils' recent winning streak was built on early leads. In the other five games in this streak, they outscored their opponent by an average of 7.6 points in the first quarter, and they led three of these games by at least 21 in the second quarter. They obviously can't win the game in the opening stages, but they can probably lose it.
3. Force at least a plus-2 turnover margin
When the Longhorns are generous, they underachieve. They turned the ball over seven times in two losses to Georgia, and they give away the ball more than any other quarterfinalist.
Giveaways make Texas mortal. When the Longhorns turn the ball over zero times or one time, they overachieve against SP+ projections by 7.5 points per game, something that would make the Peach Bowl a blowout. But when they turn the ball over two or more times, they underachieve by 5.8 points per game, something that would make this a toss-up. ASU has the second-fewest giveaways among the CFP teams, and if the Sun Devils can get to plus-2 or better in this department, this could quickly turn into a barn burner, one that might give the new Big 12 a win over the old Big 12.
Current line: Texas -13 | SP+ projection: Texas by 16.0 | FPI projection: Texas by 11.8
Rose Bowl pres. by Prudential: No. 1 Oregon (13-0) vs. No. 8 Ohio State (11-2)
Wednesday, 5 p.m., ESPN
In Ohio State's past two games, the Buckeyes have looked like a fragile mess capable of losing to any team in the CFP and by far the best team in the country. Their dreadful 13-10 loss to Michigan is going to fuel trash-talking Wolverines fans for the next 11 months, but their 42-17 walloping of Tennessee reminded everyone of what they're capable of when they get out of their own way. And it set up one heck of a rematch in college football's greatest locale.
Three of the four major bowls involved in the CFP quarterfinals -- or maybe five of six, including the two semifinals -- are going to seem similar to generic neutral sites in a tournament. We're not going to remember who won the Peach Bowl in the 2024 season, for instance; we're only going to remember who won the Arizona State-Texas quarterfinal. But the Rose Bowl will always have the advantage of being played in the Rose Bowl. Its own resistance to new playoff formats held back the sport for quite a while, but it's still the sport's most beautiful venue, and it gets the quarterfinals' biggest game. The winner becomes the national title favorite.
The first time these teams played, in Week 7's 32-31 Oregon win in Eugene, Oregon, they were separated by the smallest margin. Over the game's final 40:09, there were seven scores, and all of them produced lead changes. We almost got an eighth lead change too, but Ohio State failed to attempt a field goal before time ran out on the final play.
Ohio State won the efficiency and drive-finishing battles, but Oregon prevailed with big plays, field position and turnovers.
Oregon won by running efficiently (Jordan James: 23 carries for 115 yards) -- preventing Ohio State from doing the same (the Buckeyes had a 34.4% rushing success rate, well below their season average of 46.3%) -- hitting both of its deep shots, recovering a fumble and dramatically winning the field position battle. That's the good news.
The bad news: It took all that to win by one point. Ohio State also went 2-for-2 on fourth downs (and scored 14 points after those conversions), but if you're wondering why the Buckeyes are favored in a game against an unbeaten team that has already beaten them, that certainly drops a hint.
The offenses made most of the key plays in the first game, and that could remain true in Pasadena. Oregon has faced three teams in the defensive SP+ top 15 and scored at least 32 points each time; the Ducks have been held under 31 points only once since an opening-weekend dud against Idaho. Ohio State was a bit more inconsistent, playing seven teams in the defensive SP+ top 15, scoring 21 or fewer against three of them and scoring 31 or more four times. (They've mostly overcome that inconsistency because of defense: Only Oregon has topped 17 points on the Buckeyes.)
These offenses are also coming off maybe their most impressive performances of the season. Oregon got 283 passing yards from Dillon Gabriel, 181 receiving yards from Tez Johnson -- who is healthy again after a late-season shoulder injury -- and 169 combined rushing yards from James and Noah Whittington while piling up 45 points on Penn State. (Only one other team has topped even 30 on the Nittany Lions.)
Against Tennessee, meanwhile, Ohio State got 114 rushing yards combined from TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins and near-perfection from the passing game: Will Howard went 24-for-29 for 311 yards and completed 11 of 14 passes to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, who combined for 184 yards and two scores. (Passes to Smith and Egbuka against Oregon in Week 7: 19-for-24 for 193 yards and two TDs.)
In beating the Vols, Ohio State also was spectacular defensively. Based on my garbage time definitions, the Vols snapped the ball 52 times before garbage time, gained more than 5 yards just 13 times and gained zero or fewer 16 times. Including three sacks, Nico Iamaleava's 25 pass attempts in this span gained just 61 yards. On third-and-3 or greater, the Vols went 2-for-9.
Ohio State is No. 1 in many defensive rankings. The Buckeyes are first in points allowed per drive (0.97), yards allowed per play (4.1), three-and-out rate (42.1%) and red zone touchdown rate allowed (37.5%). They're also second in yards allowed per dropback and sacks per dropback. They've played three top-25 offenses (per SP+) since the Oregon game and allowed just 45 total points. If one unit is likely to play a lot better in the rematch, it's Jim Knowles' defense.
If the Buckeyes are making more stops, can the Ducks do the same? It will likely depend on the defensive front. Led by Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch (19 combined sacks), Oregon ranks 10th in sacks per dropback and fifth in pressure rate, but the Ducks' pass rush didn't fare well last time, recording just one sack with mediocre pressure. They defended the run well, however, and they're good at creating havoc and forcing third-and-longs. They could keep up, but Oregon will be more comfortable if this game is high scoring.
Current line: Ohio State -2.5 | SP+ projection: Ohio State by 0.9 | FPI projection: Ohio State by 1.2
Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia (11-2) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (12-1)
Thursday, time TBD, ESPN
Georgia and Notre Dame have met three times, and all three games have played out in similar fashion: The teams trade intense, physical blows for almost 60 minutes, then Georgia makes a late stop and wins. The Bulldogs won the 1981 Sugar Bowl (and the national title) when Herschel Walker rushed for 150 yards despite a separated shoulder and Scott Woerner picked off a late pass to seal a 17-10 victory. They trailed for more than half in South Bend in 2017, but won 20-19 after Rodrigo Blankenship's field goal and Lorenzo Carter's fumble recovery late in the game. They trailed at halftime in Athens in 2019, but got 140 rushing yards from D'Andre Swift and Brian Herrien, went up 10 early in the fourth quarter and held on 23-17 after another late stop. If this scenario plays out Wednesday night in New Orleans, it would surprise no one.
The Fighting Irish showed their strengths and limitations against Indiana in the CFP opener. Safety Xavier Watts was everywhere and impacted the game with an early interception, defensive coordinator Al Golden used Notre Dame's linebacker athleticism to extreme effect and coached circles around his IU counterparts, and Notre Dame's all-or-nothing run game produced a 98-yard run that established the tone. If you surge to a 27-3 lead and trigger a week of nonsense debate about whether your opponent belonged in the playoff, you did your job.
But the nibbling passing game didn't suddenly start producing big plays -- even with a 44-yard garbage-time pass to Jordan Faison, Riley Leonard averaged only 8.7 yards per completion. A lack of passing explosiveness could become Notre Dame's fatal flaw, but there are lots of assets to mask that flaw.
This might be the least intimidating Georgia team in years. For the first time since 2020, Kirby Smart's Bulldogs didn't produce a consensus All-American. Of course, this also might be the most resilient team Smart has had in years. The Bulldogs will keep fighting until the clock runs out in the fourth quarter. An opponent might have to stick around for seven or eight OTs to finish the job.
Georgia managed to come back to win the SEC championship against Texas without its starting quarterback. Gunner Stockton took over at halftime for the injured Carson Beck and, with massive help from the Bulldogs' defense, did just enough to get the job done. Of course, after his first six dropbacks produced 46 yards and a touchdown drive, his last 13 dropbacks gained just 15 yards. He led an overtime TD possession and proved he was willing to sacrifice his body, but returns quickly diminished. And now he has to face Golden's defense.
Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo sees Stockton, his plain-wrapper QB, in practice and will have had nearly a month to craft a game plan attempting to maximize his strengths. And hey, the first-ever CFP reminded us that backup quarterbacks can thrive under the bright lights (So did the fact that Georgia won two titles with former walk-on Stetson Bennett). Still, this is a huge moment, and Golden is going to scheme up something imposing.
Over parts of two seasons, eight games and mostly garbage-time snaps, Stockton has produced a Total QBR of 65.7 (which would rank around 50th to 55th in a given season), completing 73% of his passes and averaging 6.1 yards per dropback. He has taken four sacks in 55 attempts, which is higher than you'd prefer, but he has also rushed 18 times for 108 yards.
Here's a map with every collegiate pass Stockton has thrown over the past two years:
The former four-star prospect is 37-for-51 overall, but his next completion thrown more than 16 yards will be his first since high school. Beyond 10 yards, he's just 5-for-13 with a touchdown and two almost identically placed interceptions. If Notre Dame doesn't tackle well, and Stockton is allowed to nibble and hand the ball off to Trevor Etienne, Nate Frazier & Co., the Dawgs will cruise. But even without injured stars such as corner Benjamin Morrison and, now, end Rylie Mills, the Irish have an outstanding defense. They will probably tackle well and force Stockton to make some high-level passes.
Even with a lack of explosiveness, Notre Dame's offense still ranks sixth in points per drive, and the Irish's 5.9 yards per play against Indiana topped what Ohio State averaged against the Hoosiers. Sure, a lot of that is because of the 98-yard run, but the Irish consistently have had explosive runs this year. They're second nationally in overall yards per carry and yards per carry after contact. And now Jeremiyah Love has gotten some more rest to recover from his late-season knee injury. Georgia's defense is strong, however, and will likely tackle better than Indiana's defense.
If Leonard is forced to make some downfield throws, there's no guarantee it will go well either. On passes thrown 10 or more yards downfield, he has completed just 46% and is averaging 9.5 yards per throw (lower than the national average of 10.9). Tight end Mitchell Evans is the only major contributor who has caught even half of the downfield passes thrown his way, and Leonard's most frequent target, Beaux Collins, has caught just nine of 24 downfield balls. Leonard is dramatically more experienced than Stockton, but if the game comes down to a huge pitch-and-catch, it's not clear who is more likely to come through.
Current line: Georgia -2 | SP+ projection: Georgia by 0.5 | FPI projection: Notre Dame by 1.
Each team's three biggest plays
Let's continue an exercise from the first-round preview where I looked at each team's three biggest plays of the season in terms of win probability added (WPA) in a game it won. First, we'll do that for each of the four teams with first-round byes, then we'll look at the three biggest WPA plays in each first-round win.
Arizona State
Week 6 vs. Kansas: Sam Leavitt 31-yard touchdown pass to Jordyn Tyson (6:26 left in Q4). WPA: 27.6%. ASU caught fire down the stretch of the regular season and won its last two games by a combined 68 points, but four of the Sun Devils' first five wins came by one score. This one was wild, featuring five fourth-quarter lead changes. After KU took a 24-21 lead, ASU drove 75 yards in 10 plays to recapture the lead.
Week 6 vs. Kansas: Leavitt 3-yard touchdown pass to Tyson (0:20 left in Q4). WPA: 31.5%. The Jayhawks took the lead again with 2:04 remaining, but left too much time for ASU. A 39-yard Skattebo run brought the Sun Devils into field goal range, but instead of playing for OT, ASU finished the game. Tyson's second TD catch of the quarter was the game winner.
Week 7 vs. Utah: Skattebo 50-yard touchdown run (1:43 left in Q3). WPA: 21.4%. Six days after the KU win, ASU handed its former Pac-12 rival a second straight loss thanks to another huge performance from Skattebo. On third-and-2, he pulled off one of his most Skattebo-like runs to give ASU a 20-16 lead late in the third quarter.
Cam Skattebo sprints 50 yards for a touchdown, putting Arizona State back in the lead 20-16 over Utah.
Then, with less than three minutes remaining and Arizona State leading 20-19, Skattebo finished a 158-yard performance, and a 27-19 win, with a 47-yard score.
Boise State
Week 1 vs. Georgia Southern: Jeanty 75-yard touchdown run (13:30 left in Q4). WPA: 26.2%. BSU's defense improved during the year, allowing 21 or fewer points in each of its last five games, but it got lit up by Georgia Southern in the opener, forcing the offense to go big. When you have Jeanty, that's not a problem. This 75-yard burst, his sixth score of the game, triggered a 20-0 run that drove a 56-45 win.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty shines in the season opener, running for 267 yards and six touchdowns in a win over Georgia Southern.
Week 9 vs. UNLV: Andrew Simpson interception (1:43 left in Q2). WPA: 14.6%. In a game that basically determined home-field advantage for the Mountain West championship game (a Boise-UNLV rematch), the Broncos led 13-10 when Simpson picked off a Hajj-Malik Williams pass to set up a short TD drive.
Week 9 vs. UNLV: Jeanty 1-yard touchdown run (12:42 left in Q4). WPA: 18.1%. Naturally, it was Jeanty who sealed the win. This score gave the Broncos the lead, and after a UNLV punt, Boise State ate up the final 8:07 of clock with 7 Jeanty runs, 4 first downs and 3 kneel-downs.
Georgia
Week 14 vs. Georgia Tech: 2-point conversion rush by Nate Frazier (OT No. 8). WPA: 25.4%. Before reaching the CFP, the Dawgs had to survive back-to-back overtime games. After Georgia overcame a 14-point Tech lead in the final four minutes of regulation, the teams traded touchdowns and (mostly) missed 2-point conversions for seven OT possessions, but Frazier's successful plunge in the eighth possession kept CFP hopes alive in Athens.
Week 15 vs. Texas: Gunner Stockton 4-yard pass to Oscar Delp to the Texas 16 (OT). WPA: 30.3%. The Georgia offense didn't find much success against Texas in the SEC championship game, losing quarterback Carson Beck to injury late in the first half and gaining just 252 yards in regulation. But the Dawgs clawed their way to overtime and forced a Texas field goal to start OT. Stockton threw to Delp behind the line of scrimmage on the first play of UGA's possession, and he battled his way for a solid gain.
Week 15 vs. Texas: Stockton rushes for 8 yards to the Texas 4 (OT). WPA: 33.0%. After another pass to Delp moved the chains, Stockton got rocked by Andrew Mukuba at the end of this run.
Georgia QB Gunner Stockton scrambles for a first down, but gets flattened by Texas' Andrew Mukuba before the end zone.
He got a vital first down, however, and Trevor Etienne's TD run on the next play won the SEC title for Georgia.
Oregon
Week 2 vs. Boise State: Dillon Gabriel 59-yard touchdown pass to Traeshon Holden (9:19 left in Q3). WPA: 22.1%. Among a run of 13 mostly comfortable wins, the Ducks had to battle through four one-score finishes. The first came in Week 2. The Ducks trailed Jeanty and BSU 20-14 and faced a third-and-8 early in the second half, but a sharp pass to Holden turned into a huge, game-tying touchdown.
Oregon needed two return touchdowns and a last-second field goal -- I was a bit surprised this was the biggest WPA gain of the day (it was the third-and-long scenario that did it) -- to earn a 37-34 win.
Week 7 vs. Ohio State: Matayo Uiagalelei sacks Will Howard for a 9-yard loss (1:47 left in Q4). WPA: 18.5%. With Oregon having just taken a 32-31 lead, Ohio State's attempt at a game-winning drive began with the only sack of the day. It created a second-and-19 (and, perhaps more importantly, killed nearly 30 seconds). Ohio State responded, but the time ran out with the Buckeyes 26 yards short and unable to attempt a potential winning field goal.
Week 15 vs. Penn State: Gabriel 28-yard touchdown pass to Kenyon Sadiq (10:46 left in Q1). WPA: 22.0%. Oregon couldn't shake Penn State in the Big Ten championship game, needing a late interception to finish a 45-37 win. But this big early touchdown on second-and-15 gave the Ducks an early lead. They would never trail.
Now let's walk through the three biggest plays in each first-round winner's game.
Notre Dame (vs. Indiana)
Xavier Watts interception at Notre Dame 2 (11:17 left in Q1). WPA: 9.0%. As it turned out, the knockout punch came in the first four minutes. First, Watts' interception ended a promising Indiana scoring opportunity ...
Jeremiyah Love 98-yard touchdown run (11:11 left in Q1). WPA: 12.0%. Then Love's explosion gave the Irish a 7-0 lead and ignited Notre Dame Stadium.
Jadarian Price 20-yard run to the Indiana 16 (0:59 left in Q1). WPA: 2.6%. This was the big play in Notre Dame's second touchdown drive. Five plays later, the Irish were up 14-0 in a 27-17 win.
Ohio State (vs. Tennessee)
Will Howard 37-yard touchdown pass to Jeremiah Smith (12:53 left in Q1). WPA: 7.3%. Ohio State went up 21-0 in one of the best first-quarter performances of 2024. It took only five plays for the Buckeyes to take the lead.
Howard 40-yard pass to Emeka Egbuka to the Tennessee 6 (9:34 left in Q1). WPA: 4.4%. After a Tennessee three-and-out, this bomb set up TD No. 2.
TreVeyon Henderson 29-yard touchdown run (3:35 left in Q1). WPA: 3.6%. Then came Touchdown No. 3.
Penn State (vs. SMU)
Dominic DeLuca 23-yard pick-six (6:17 left in Q1). WPA: 15.6%. If Love's touchdown run didn't draw the biggest crowd reaction of the first round, this play might have. DeLuca gave PSU a 7-0 lead ...
Tony Rojas 59-yard pick-six (13:28 left in Q2). WPA: 13.9%. And then Rojas made it 14-0.
DeLuca interception from the PSU 7 (8:15 left in Q2). WPA: 7.3%. SMU had a chance to make it a game after a fourth-down stop, but DeLuca all but ended the game with this red zone tip-and-pick.
Texas (vs. Clemson)
Jerrick Gibson 4-yard run on fourth-and-1 (2:48 left in Q1). WPA: 7.0%. Clemson took an early 7-0 lead, but Gibson's conversion, and the Quintrevion Wisner TD run that followed, tied it.
Jaydon Blue 38-yard touchdown run (12:58 left in Q2). WPA: 5.9%. Run to win. This TD capped a five-play, 65-yard drive with all the yards coming on the ground. The Horns outrushed the Tigers 292-76.
Blue 77-yard touchdown run (11:01 left in Q4). WPA: 9.5%. Clemson cut a 31-10 Texas lead to seven points in the fourth quarter, but that's when Blue took over.
Jaydon Blue restores Texas' two-score lead with a 77-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.