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College Football Playoff: First-round takeaways, analysis

Jack Sawyer and Ohio State asserted themselves early against Tennessee. Jason Miller/Getty Images

Ohio State led by 21 after barely 11 minutes. Penn State led by 28 after 29. Texas spotted Clemson a touchdown, then went on a 31-3 run. Indiana trailed longer in one half in South Bend than in the previous 12 games combined.

We seem to have stumbled across a new, spectacularly combustible substance: playoff home-field advantage. The four home teams in the College Football Playoff's first ever first round were favored to win by a combined 38 points. They won by 77, and that's with quite a few garbage-time points involved. The atmospheres were overwhelming. We didn't get any actually thrilling games, but we got college football at its most intense and distilled. It was an enlightening experience. And it set up four dynamite quarterfinals.

Here are the main takeaways.

Jump to:
Ohio State 42, Tennessee 17
Texas 38, Clemson 24
Penn State 38, SMU 10
Notre Dame 27, Indiana 17

Ohio State 42, Tennessee 17

What just happened?

Angry Ohio State showed up, that's what. Two years ago, Ohio State responded to an embarrassing loss to rival Michigan by playing its best game of the season and all but beating eventual national champion Georgia. This year, the Buckeyes responded to Ryan Day's most embarrassing loss to Michigan yet by issuing a comprehensive beatdown to a talented Tennessee team. Whatever works.

Quarterback Will Howard played the best game of his college football career, running back TreVeyon Henderson ran wild, wide receiver Jeremiah Smith reminded everyone that he's basically already ready for the NFL, JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer dominated in the pass rush, Tennessee had to work super hard for every single first down ... it was just a complete performance in every way. Where the hell was this three weeks ago??

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OSU on the board first with Will Howard to Jeremiah Smith TD

Will Howard deposits a dime to Jeremiah Smith, who hauls in the nice catch for the Buckeyes touchdown.


Key stats

  • Total yards: Ohio State 473 (7.4 yards per play), Tennessee 256 (3.7)

  • First quarter: OSU -- 21 points, 205 yards (10.8 per play), 9 first downs; Tennessee -- 0 points, 16 yards (1.2 per play), 2 first downs.

  • Will Howard (Ohio State): 24-for-29 for 311 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 37 rushing yards

  • Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee): 14-for-31 for 104 yards, 4 sacks for minus-35 yards and 16 carries for 82 yards

  • TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State): 14 combined carries and catches, 134 yards, 2 touchdowns

  • Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State): 11 catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns (both from Smith)

  • JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer (Ohio State): 13 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 3 pass breakups

  • James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee): 3 tackles, two TFLs


Impact plays

The game turned in Ohio State's favor almost instantaneously. Ohio State drove 75 yards in six plays for a touchdown. Tennessee went three-and-out, and Ohio State drove 68 yards for another touchdown in four plays. Tennessee went three-and-out again, and Ohio State drove 58 yards to make it 21-0.

The ballgame was basically over before the end of the first quarter, and while Tennessee rallied to make it 21-10 at halftime and had a chance to flip the game by getting the ball to start the second half, the Vols fell short. They quickly punted after a strange speed option call on third-and-7, and Ohio State drove 65 yards in six plays to make it 28-10. It was over, and Tennessee knew it.

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Jeremiah Smith hauls in his second TD of the night for Buckeyes

Jeremiah Smith makes another great touchdown grab as Ohio State goes up by three possessions.


See you next fall, Tennessee

If there's a silver lining for Tennessee, it's that this year was closer to the beginning of something than the end. Iamaleava is a sophomore. A few freshmen and sophomores made solid contributions in the skill corps. Two of the top three tacklers on a defense that allowed more than 23 points only twice all year were sophomores.

The Vols had plenty of high-level talent this season, but they could easily have more moving forward. All of this is to say that simply reaching the CFP, and beating Alabama and Florida in the process, made this a pretty good year. They were just talented enough to hope for more, but it didn't happen. So be it. This is clearly a top-10ish program that should continue to have top-10ish teams moving forward. The competition for big-time athletes in the SEC is obviously steep, but Tennessee is good and should continue to be good.


What's next

What happens when the Big Ten devours its Rose Bowl partner, the Pac-12? It evidently ends up with both spots in the Rose Bowl. And we get a rematch of one of the games of the season, Oregon's 32-31 win over Ohio State in Eugene on Oct. 12.

A quick refresher: Back in Week 7, Oregon and Ohio State traded delightful blows for 60 minutes. Oregon led 22-21 at halftime after a pair of Dillon Gabriel touchdown passes, and after Ohio State took a 31-29 lead with 6:00 left in the fourth quarter, Oregon responded with an 11-play field goal drive and took the lead with 1:47 remaining, but the Buckeyes quickly drove into Oregon territory in response.

On the edge of field goal range in the closing seconds, Will Howard scrambled for 12 yards to the Oregon 26, but there was no way to stop the clock. Time expired before Ohio State could attempt a field goal.

It was a brain fart that, along with Ohio State's loss to Michigan, prevented the Buckeyes from playing in the Big Ten championship and forced them to win four playoff games to win the national title. But hey, they've got one down now. With a rematch win over Oregon, they'd be halfway there. Ohio State has probably been the best team in the country over the course of 13 games, but they've still got quite the laborious path to the national title.

Texas 38, Clemson 24

What just happened?

Against an aggressive Clemson defense, Texas' offense operated well for the first time since a win over Florida in early November. And it operated well. Forced to keep scoring because the Longhorns' defense was struggling to slow down Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik & Co. in the second half, the Longhorns got a combined 291 rushing yards from Jaydon Blue, Quintrevion Wisner and Jerrick Gibson. Quarterback Quinn Ewers played low-error ball as well, and Texas finished with 494 yards in the win.

The Horns took over with a 31-3 run and seemed in control until a pair of Clemson touchdowns cut Texas' lead to seven points with 11:43 left. No worries: Blue raced 77 yards to make it 38-24 just 55 seconds later, and the Horns made a goal-line stand midway through the quarter. They had to make one last stop when the offense couldn't quite kill out the rest of the clock, but Clemson never got back to within one score.

Clemson's first drive was brilliant; the Tigers worked the ball 75 yards in six minutes to take a 7-0 lead. Between that and the late success, Klubnik ended up posting lovely numbers (26-for-43 for 336 yards, three touchdowns and an early interception) against a dynamite pass defense. But the Tigers weren't able to control the trenches in the second and third quarters, and without injured Phil Mafah, who managed only four touches, three other Tiger backs (Keith Adams Jr., Jarvis Green and recently converted wideout Adam Randall) gained 62 yards on nine carries -- 44 on one Randall run and 18 on eight others. Eventually, coordinator Garrett Riley just put the ball in Klubnik's hands. It might have worked for a miraculous comeback had the Clemson defense been up to the task.


Key stats

  • Rushing yards (not including sacks): Texas 306 (6.7 per carry), Clemson 105 (5.0)

  • Penalties: Clemson five for 65 (including three pass interference calls on Avieon Terrell), Texas two for 10

  • Second quarter: Texas -- 21 points, 214 yards (8.9 per play); Clemson -- 3 points, 98 yards (5.2 per play)

  • Cade Klubnik (Clemson): 26-for-43 for 336 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT and 3 sacks

  • Quinn Ewers (Texas): 17-for-24 for 202 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and 2 sacks

  • Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner (Texas): 33 combined carries and catches, 287 yards and 4 touchdowns

  • T.J. Moore (Clemson): nine catches for 116 yards and a touchdown

  • DLs Ethan Burke, Barryn Sorrell and Bill Norton (Texas): 9 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, a breakup and a forced fumble

  • R.J. Mickens (Clemson): 8 tackles, 0.5 TFLs, 1 QB hurry, 1 INT, 1 breakup


Impact plays

After Clemson's early score, Texas slowly ground out hope, and for most of the third quarter the Horns' in-game win probability was 96% or higher. Clemson's two touchdowns threatened to make things interesting, but the Tigers needed one more break that never came.


See you next fall, Clemson

Clemson became the first genuine bid thief of the CFP era, upsetting SMU in the ACC championship game to force its way into the playoff and eventually displacing Alabama. The Tigers will likely finish from 13th to 23rd in SP+ for the fourth straight season, and while that's good enough for most, it shouldn't be for a team that has won two national titles in the past decade.

It appears the next Clemson team we see will be a bit different. Swinney has already secured commitments from a pair of transfers -- almost literally his first dalliance with a portal that almost completely sculpted two other surprise CFP teams (Indiana and SMU). We'll see if he pursues any changes to a defensive coaching staff that hasn't been nearly as effective since Brent Venables' departure for Oklahoma three years ago. But even with some philosophical shifts there, one has to be excited about the upside returning in the passing game, at least if Klubnik returns, as anticipated. The junior threw for 3,639 yards and 36 touchdowns this season, and his three leading receivers were a sophomore (Antonio Williams) and two freshmen (Bryant Wesco Jr. and Saturday night star T.J. Moore). With a bit more development, Clemson will have its best receiving corps since at least 2019. Figure out how to make a few more stops, and they'll be in business.


What's next

Texas is seeing both the upside and the downside of getting the 5-seed. It resulted in a favorable draw for the Longhorns -- they were 13.5-point favorites against Clemson on Saturday, and they opened as 13.5-point favorites against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. Their odds of advancing to the semifinals will be awfully good, though obviously Cam Skattebo and the smoking-hot ASU Sun Devils could land some blows and make things difficult. Still, it's better than playing Oregon or Georgia in the quarterfinals.

That said, losing to Georgia in the SEC championship forced the Horns to play an extra game, and that means extra injury risk. And sure enough, three Texas starters left Saturday's game hurt in two plays. Wisner and right tackle Cameron Williams got hurt on the same doomed screen pass in the second quarter, and center Jake Majors left the game after a turnover on the next play. Coach Steve Sarkisian said after the game that Wisner and Majors probably could have come back in if necessary, but Williams will get an MRI. The injuries weren't costly against Clemson, but we'll see if there are lingering issues in the weeks ahead. We'll also see how the Texas defense responds to its first set of genuine misfires in a while. Clemson's 412 yards were easily the most the Horns allowed all season -- only one team had topped even 300! -- and Skattebo, Sam Leavitt and the ASU offense are a unique out.

Penn State 38, SMU 10

What just happened?

In my first-round preview, I wrote, "There's a version of this game where Penn State, in front of a rocking home crowd, controls the line of scrimmage on offense, feeds Singleton and Allen often, forces a couple of turnovers, and controls the game from start to finish. But the Mustangs could also find some early chunk plays, force Drew Allar to make plays on second- or third-and-long and make Beaver Stadium a lot less jolly." SMU's defense was sound, and its offense was hilariously volatile, capable of loads of big plays and crippling mistakes. That created quite a range of potential outcomes, some very PSU-friendly and a few SMU-friendly.

In the first quarter, we caught glimpses of both of these visions. SMU forced an early three-and-out, and Kevin Jennings' first two pass attempts gained 18 yards and 15 (via pass interference) as the Mustangs quickly drove inside the PSU 20. But instead of running for a first down on a fourth-and-1 bootleg, Jennings saw an open Matthew Hibner in the end zone and went for the TD. He threw it behind Hibner, and it was broken up. On his next pass, the sophomore threw a pick-six to Dom DeLuca.

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Dominic DeLuca houses a pick-six for Penn State

Dominic DeLuca picks off Kevin Jennings and takes it back for a touchdown.

Both teams averaged 4.1 yards per play in the first quarter, but the turnover was the entire difference.

In the second quarter, we got only the PSU-friendly version of this game. With the crowd playing a massive role and Jennings making it clear he was bothered by the noise (which made the crowd even louder), he threw another pick-six, this one to Tony Rojas.

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Penn State gets its second pick-six of the game

Kevin Jennings doesn't see Penn State's Tony Rojas, who picks it off and takes it down the field for the team's second pick-six of the game.

After a failed fourth-and-short attempt from Penn State gave SMU new life, Jennings was picked again. The Penn State offense finally found some traction, meanwhile, averaging 6.8 yards per play in the second quarter and scoring TDs on drives of 75 (after the pick) and 38 (after a turnover on downs) yards. It was 28-0 at halftime.

The game was over, but the crowd wasn't finished playing a role. SMU drove inside the Penn State red zone on each of its first two second-half drives but committed three combined false starts, settled for two field goals and made only one. If you ever wanted to witness the difference between having huge games in home stadiums versus neutral sites, this will be Reference Point No. 1 for quite a while.


Key stats

  • Second quarter: PSU -- 21 points, 142 yards (6.8 per play), 4-for-5 on third downs, zero turnovers; SMU -- zero points, 68 yards (2.7 per play), 0-for-4 on third downs, two turnovers.

  • Red zone trips: SMU 4, Penn State 2

  • Points from red zone trips: Penn State 14, SMU 3

  • Defensive touchdowns: Penn State 2, SMU 0

  • Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen (Penn State): 29 combined rushes and receptions, 195 yards, 3 touchdowns

  • Kevin Jennings (SMU): 20-for-36 for 195 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions (2 returned for a touchdown) and 3 sacks

  • Dom DeLuca (Penn State): 5 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 2 interceptions returned for 37 combined yards and a touchdown

  • Abdul Carter (Penn State): 3 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 hurry


Where the game turned

I hate boiling games down to one play or one player because there are too many plays and too many players involved, so it's almost always an oversimplification. But four Jennings passes cost SMU nearly 37% in the win probability department.

That's rough.

To be sure, Penn State's offense ended up finding enough traction, too. But the Nittany Lions averaged only 5.0 yards per play, and SMU's defense played mostly well. Four passes assured that most of the second half was garbage time.


See you next fall, SMU

I thought I was being optimistic in the preseason, thinking SMU might be only a break or two away from contending for a spot in the ACC championship. Instead, coach Rhett Lashlee's Mustangs rolled to 8-0 in conference play, needing only two close wins to get there. And despite an ACC title game loss in Charlotte, losing by 6 combined points to two top-20 teams allowed them to still reach the CFP. As it should be. We're evidently going to relitigate every underdog's elimination as proof that team didn't belong, conveniently ignoring that Miami, Alabama and Ole Miss, three of the most aggrieved outside-looking-in teams, lost a combined six games as multiscore favorites. They have no one to blame but themselves for their collective playoff noninclusion. SMU handled its business and found a spot in the field.

As desperately as Jennings will want another shot -- and as useful as Saturday's experience might prove to be from a "Here's what it's like to play in front of 110,000 people" perspective -- getting back to the playoff will require another depth-chart rebuild. Seven of SMU's top nine receiving targets, four of the six most heavily used offensive linemen, and eight of 11 leading tacklers are seniors. Lashlee built a hell of a roster through the transfer portal and won't be afraid of doing it again, but the bar's awfully high now. We'll see whether the Mustangs can make another ACC run without a reset year.


What's next?

Penn State's win continued an incredible streak. Since the start of the 2022 season, coach James Franklin's Nittany Lions are 32-1 as favorites and 0-6 as underdogs. No one in the country is more reliable in this regard, for (usually) better or (occasionally) worse. And per ESPN BET they opened as a 10.5-point favorite over Mountain West champion Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal. (Hot damn, would "Penn State playing on Boise State's blue field in winter" have been awesome. Alas.) The game will pit three of the most exciting and physical running backs in the country -- Boise State's Ashton Jeanty and PSU's Singleton and Allen -- but the defensive and depth edges seem to favor PSU. And hey, it's the favorite, so that's evidently all we need to know.

The Fiesta Bowl winner plays the Georgia-Notre Dame winner in the semifinals. The Nittany Lions would probably be underdogs in that one.

Notre Dame 27, Indiana 17

What just happened?

Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love erupted for an early 98-yard touchdown, Indiana blew some early scoring chances and, in front of a raucous South Bend crowd in the first CFP first-round home game, Notre Dame did to the Hoosiers what it has done to just about every opponent for the past 11 games: win in the trenches and see out an easy victory.

The MVP (most valuable person) of this one? Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden. He was a step ahead of IU playcaller Mike Shanahan all night. The Irish tested Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke's patience early, forcing him to read "run" on most RPOs, and after Rourke started poorly (1-for-6 with an interception), they dominated the run the rest of the way. Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton combined to rush 21 times for just 71 yards (they had 141 yards on 32 carries against Ohio State), and IU didn't pass 200 yards until the last few minutes of the game. The Hoosiers still drove into Notre Dame territory on four of their first five drives but got just a field goal from it.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame's offense mastered the art of killing time. Riley Leonard completed 23 of 32 passes for only 201 yards, 44 on a single, late completion to Jordan Faison. He otherwise averaged just 7.1 yards per completion, and Notre Dame's rushers averaged just 2.9 yards per carry outside of Love's big burst, but the Irish went 7-for-13 on third downs and just kept controlling the clock. Indiana scored twice to make things respectable, but at worst this one was in the bag for the last 15 minutes.

Indiana was likely one of the 12 best teams in the country, but Notre Dame is one of the eight best. The Irish advance.


Key stats

  • Total yards, first three quarters: Notre Dame 302, Indiana 102

  • Yards per play, first three quarters: Notre Dame 5.8, Indiana 3.6

  • Third downs: Notre Dame 7-for-13, Indiana 4-for-12

  • Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame): 10 combined carries and receptions, 126 yards (12.6 per touch), one touchdown

  • Jordan Faison (Notre Dame): 10 targets, 7 catches, 89 yards (8.9 per target)

  • James Carpenter (Indiana): 7 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 blocked field goal

  • Jaiden Ausberry and Drayk Bowen (Notre Dame): 5 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 2 QB hurries

  • Xavier Watts (Notre Dame): 10 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 interception


Impact plays

In retrospect, this one was won by a 1-2 combination in the first five minutes.

1. After an early D'Angelo Ponds interception helped create an Indiana scoring opportunity, IU's Kurtis Rourke misfired on a tight-window throw, and it was picked off by all-world ballhawk Xavier Watts at the Notre Dame 2.

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Notre Dame picks off Indiana in rapid response

Xavier Watts picks off an Indiana pass a few plays after Notre Dame was picked off by Indiana.

2. On the next play, Love raced for the longest touchdown in CFP history (which also tied for longest play in Notre Dame history).

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End zone to end zone! Jeremiyah Love goes 98 yards for ND TD

Jeremiyah Love blows past the Indiana defense for a 98-yard rushing touchdown to give Notre Dame the lead after a rapid start.

Per ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame's win probability went from 60% to 83% in those two plays. It passed 90% for good in the last minute of the first half and passed 95% early in the third quarter. The second half was mostly without drama, even when Indiana scored twice late.


See you next fall, Indiana

Maybe the coolest story in college football came to an end like most Cinderella runs in March Madness do: with a dud performance. It happens. Indiana had some chances to make this interesting early but didn't execute well enough, and Notre Dame applied the sleeper hold.

Cignetti masterfully used the transfer portal to reverse Indiana's fortunes, but the problem with loading up through the portal is that, once you've done it, you have to keep doing it. The Hoosiers' starting quarterback (Rourke), their two leading rushers, seven of their top nine receiving targets, three of their top six linemen and seven of the 11 leading tacklers on defense are seniors. (And that says nothing of players such as junior defensive end Mikail Kamara, who could go pro.) This team made some magical memories, but next season's Hoosier team is going to look very, very different. That doesn't have to be a bad thing, but it's obviously going to be hard for next season's team to reach the same heights.

Make no mistake, though: This was a really good team. The debates always begin the moment an upstart falls: Did they deserve it? Did they just get there because of a weak schedule? Were they frauds all along? We don't have to do that, though. The Hoosiers came into this game ranked 10th in both SP+ and the FPI and will finish the season having beaten every team ranked below them while losing to the two teams above them. They were handed a schedule with Ohio State, both of last season's national title game participants and three other teams that won at least eight games last season. It's not their fault that some of those teams turned out to be duds this season. All the Hoosiers did was win 11 of 12 regular-season games, 10 games by at least 14 points. It was magical, and it lit up Bloomington. That's an awesome story.


What's next?

Steel yourself for the rock fight of all Sugar Bowl rock fights. Notre Dame now heads to New Orleans for a Jan. 1 battle with a Georgia team that, for all of its inconsistency, is physical as hell. Those missed Indiana tackles that turned 5-yard passes into 9-yard passes? Georgia won't miss as many, and if Riley Leonard averaged 8.7 yards per completion Friday night with the short passes he threw, he might average 5.7 against the Dawgs. Love's burst aside, Notre Dame got away with a lot of nibbling against the Hoosiers, and that's going to be a lot more difficult in the next game.

That said, in Rourke the Irish also just dominated a quarterback who has proven infinitely more than Gunner Stockton to date. All indications are that Georgia will have to start the unproven sophomore after Carson Beck's SEC championship game injury. Stockton subbed in for Beck against Texas and began his game 4-for-5 for 43 yards. But his last 13 pass attempts gained just 15 net yards, including two sacks. Georgia will have had more than three weeks to prepare Stockton for the biggest game of his life, but he's officially the least proven quarterback left in the CFP, and Notre Dame's pass defense -- which came into the Indiana game ranked first in passing success rate allowed, second in pressure rate and fourth in yards allowed per dropback -- certainly looked the part in the first round. Even if the Irish offense isn't doing a ton of damage, Georgia's might not do much either. Here comes one hell of a war of attrition. Notre Dame has opened as a 1.5-point favorite, per ESPN BET.