We've finally made it. Nearly 1,300 days after an announcement that "a sub-group of College Football Playoff's (CFP) management committee today presented a proposal to change the current four-team format to a 12-team event," and nearly 120 days after a breathless 2024 college football season kicked off, we've got our 12-team playoff, and it starts Friday night.
The inaugural CFP first round will take place in four storied locations: South Bend, Indiana; State College, Pennsylvania; Austin, Texas; and Columbus, Ohio. We've got the proverbial Helmet Games (Texas vs. Clemson, Ohio State vs. Tennessee), we've got a couple of major upstart stories (Indiana visiting Notre Dame, SMU visiting Penn State) and we've got wintry weather expected in three of four locations.
Aside from the fact that the quarterfinals will be in neutral sites instead of home stadiums, this is pretty much everything we could have hoped for. Let's preview the first four games of this new playoff era.
Jump to a section:
Biggest plays for each team
SMU-Penn State
Clemson-Texas
Tennessee-Ohio State
Weather forecasts
One major issue with December home games: They're played in December! And with Midwestern/Northeastern teams hosting three of four games, things are going to get a little chilly.
The forecasts:
• South Bend: 29 degrees at kickoff, snow earlier in the day
• State College: 27 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff
• Austin: 61 degrees and sunny at kickoff
• Columbus: 26 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff
For now, it doesn't look as if snow is going to play a role this weekend, but three of four games are going to get awfully cold.
Projections
A four-team playoff basically added one extra game to the docket. A 12-team playoff is a genuine tournament. Randomness and bracket busting will play a role, especially during a season in which the top teams are not separated by much (No. 1 and No. 8 in the SP+ rankings are currently separated by only 3.1 points). And heading into the first round, no one has a better than 20.4% chance of winning out, per SP+.
While each of this weekend's four home teams enjoys a spread between -7 and -11.5, chaos isn't far away. Per SP+ there's only a 20% chance that all four favorites will win, and there's a greater chance of either one upset (40%) or two (30%) than zero. Buckle up.
Each team's three biggest plays
Before we dive into the first-round matchups, let's look back at how we got this specific group of teams. The race that brought these eight programs to the CFP featured a number of wild plot twists. For each of the eight teams playing in this round, here are their top three plays of the season in terms of win probability added (per ESPN Analytics) in games they eventually won. Without these plays, we get a very different field of 12.
Week 11 vs. Virginia Tech: Cade Klubnik throws 41-yard touchdown pass to T.J. Moore (7:45 left in Q3). Win probability added: 17.9%. The first two months of Clemson's season were drama-free -- the Tigers got pummeled by Georgia, won six straight games by an average of 28 points, then lost to Louisville by 12. But before Miami's collapse officially sent the Tigers to the ACC championship game, they had to come through against Virginia Tech and Pitt. They trailed Virginia Tech at halftime thanks to a blocked field goal return, but this wild pass gave the Tigers a lead they wouldn't relinquish.
Cade Klubnik makes an impressive 41-yard touchdown pass to T.J. Moore as Clemson takes the lead over Virginia Tech in the third quarter.
Week 12 vs. Pitt: Klubnik's 50-yard touchdown run (1:25 left in Q4). Win probability added: 66.0%. Ladies and gentlemen, the single most impactful play of the CFP race (based on WPA). Clemson is driving for the game-tying field goal in Pittsburgh? Nope, the Tigers are just going to go ahead and win the game outright.
Cade Klubnik keeps it himself and finds the end zone to give Clemson a 24-20 lead late in the game.
Week 15 vs. SMU: Nolan Hauser's 56-yard field goal (0:03 left in Q4). Win probability added: 34.8%. After blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in the ACC championship game, Clemson used a three-punch combo to win the game in the final 16 seconds. First, Adam Randall returned a kickoff to the Clemson 45. Then Klubnik quickly found Antonio Williams to get into borderline field goal range. Then Hauser sent Clemson to the CFP. They made it seem awfully easy.
Week 5 vs. Maryland: Kurtis Rourke throws 27-yard touchdown pass to Omar Cooper Jr. (0:43 left in Q2). Win probability added: 12.3%. Indiana didn't offer much in the way of drama, winning 10 games by more than 14 points and suffering its only loss by 23. Maryland made Indiana work, though, tying the game in the second and third quarters before the Hoosiers pulled away. This score gave IU a 14-7 halftime lead.
Week 5 vs. Maryland: Rourke throws 41-yard pass to Myles Price (9:16 left in Q3). Win probability added: 10.9%. And this long pass on third-and-7 set up another go-ahead touchdown in an eventual 42-28 win.
Week 9 vs. Washington: D'Angelo Ponds' 67-yard pick-six (7:52 left in Q1). Win probability added: 13.0%. Indiana had to beat Washington without Rourke, but Ponds picked off a pair of Will Rogers' passes, and this one gave the Hoosiers an early lead they would never relinquish.
Week 1 vs. Texas A&M: Jadarian Price's 47-yard touchdown run (7:01 left in Q3). Win probability added: 20.0%. Notre Dame beat four teams in the SP+ top 30 (A&M, Louisville, Army and USC), and two of those wins involved early double-digit leads. So the Irish packed most of their drama into their first and last wins of the regular season. They were tied 6-6 with A&M at halftime before Price scored the game's first touchdown with a 47-yard house call.
Week 1 vs. Texas A&M: Jeremiyah Love's 21-yard touchdown run (1:54 left in Q4). Win probability added: 17.1%. With the game tied at 13-13, Notre Dame embarked on an 85-yard, nearly five-minute drive, capped by a Love TD on the first play after the two-minute timeout.
Week 14 vs. USC: Christian Gray's 99-yard pick-six (3:39 left in Q4). Win probability added: 22.9%. The Irish led 35-28, but USC was driving to tie the score until Gray and Xavier Watts both produced lengthy pick-sixes that clinched a CFP spot.
Notre Dame's defense returns a 99-yard pick-six and a 100-yard pick-six in the fourth quarter.
This takes bend-don't-break defense to extremes.
Week 9 vs. Nebraska: Will Howard's 3-yard pass to Emeka Egbuka (8:10 left in Q4). Win probability added: 14.4%. Following a 32-31 loss to Oregon, Ohio State looked as if it would make easy work of Nebraska, quickly going up 14-3. But the Huskers clawed back to take a 17-14 fourth-quarter lead, forcing the Buckeyes to rally. Howard hit Carnell Tate for a big gain to start the drive, then connected with Egbuka on fourth-and-1 to extend it. Quinshon Judkins scored three plays later, and Ohio State prevailed 21-17.
Week 10 vs. Penn State: Ty Hamilton and Hero Kanu stop Kaytron Allen for a 1-yard gain (6:05 left in Q4). Win probability added: 15.7%. Brilliant red zone defense beat Penn State. First, Davison Igbinosun ended a potential PSU go-ahead drive with an end zone pick right before halftime, and then the Buckeyes made a goal-line stand midway through the fourth quarter, stuffing Allen three straight times, then forcing a fourth-down incompletion.
Week 13 vs. Indiana: Cody Simon strip-sacks Kurtis Rourke, fumble recovered by Hamilton (6:33 left in Q2). Win probability added: 12.3%. A brilliant pass rush beat Indiana. This turnover was negated when OSU gave the ball right back to the Hoosiers, but eventually five sacks and a couple of explosive plays on special teams sent the Buckeyes to an easy 38-15 win.
Week 7 vs. USC: USC's Michael Lantz misses 45-yard field goal (OT). Win probability added: 17.8%. Trailing 20-6 at halftime, PSU pulled off a brilliant rally, tying the game three times in the second half, then winning it via a 36-yard Ryan Barker field goal after USC failed to score to start OT.
Week 9 vs. Wisconsin: Jaylen Reed's 19-yard pick-six (6:37 left in Q3). Win probability added: 16.4%. Unable to get their offense going at Camp Randall, the Nittany Lions trailed 10-7 well into the third quarter, but Reed's defensive touchdown gave them the lead, and the offense put away a 28-13 win with two length-of-the-field drives in the fourth quarter.
Week 13 vs. Minnesota: Zakee Wheatley's fumble recovery at the 50 (15:00 left in Q4). Win probability added: 17.1%. Minnesota led 10-0 early in Minneapolis, and Penn State couldn't pull ahead until taking a 23-22 lead late in the third quarter. Even after this turnover, PSU could drive for only a field goal and needed to hold the Gophers to a field goal, then convert three separate fourth-and-1s to run out the final 5:48 and seal a 26-25 win.
Week 1 vs. Nevada: Preston Stone throws 34-yard touchdown pass to RJ Maryland (1:23 left in Q4). Win probability added: 48.7%. The Mustangs were nearly four-touchdown favorites in a season-opening trip west, but they trailed Nevada 24-13 heading into the fourth quarter. A touchdown, a 2-point conversion and a safety brought them within one point, but they didn't take their first lead until nearly 59 minutes into the game.
Week 9 vs. Duke: Jahfari Harvey blocks a 30-yard field goal (0:00 left in Q4). Win probability added: 36.5%. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been mostly awesome since taking over for Stone, but he lost the plot against Duke, throwing three interceptions and losing two fumbles. Following Jennings' fifth turnover, Duke set up for a 30-yard chip shot and an upset win, but Harvey blocked it and sent the game to OT.
We were that close to either Miami or Alabama being in the CFP instead of SMU.
Week 9 vs. Duke: Maalik Murphy's 2-point conversion pass failed (OT). Win probability added: 53.4%. Brashard Smith raced 24 yards for a touchdown on the second play of OT in Durham, North Carolina, but Duke immediately responded with a 25-yard Murphy-to-Eli Pancol touchdown pass. Duke went for two points and the win, but Murphy's pass fell incomplete and SMU kept its playoff hopes alive.
Week 8 vs. Alabama: Jermod McCoy's 54-yard interception return (3:56 left in Q1). Win probability added: 19.3%. Tennessee had to survive a close call against Florida, too, but most of the Vols' drama came in a single game. With minimal margin for error following an upset loss at Arkansas, Tennessee survived some wild swings to take down Bama for the second time in three years. First, this McCoy pick on first-and-goal prevented the Tide from taking an early lead.
Week 8 vs. Alabama: Nico Iamaleava's 55-yard pass to Dont'e Thornton Jr. (1:43 left in Q3). Win probability added: 22.4%. The Vols' offense got going in the second half, first driving 91 yards for a touchdown to tie the game and then, after a Bama field goal, taking a 14-10 lead with this deep pass and the ensuing 3-yard Dylan Sampson score.
Week 8 vs. Alabama: Iamaleava throws 16-yard touchdown pass to Chris Brazzell II (5:59 left in Q4). Win probability added: 22.1%. Alabama took a 17-14 lead early in the fourth quarter, but on third-and-5 with a field goal in sight, the Vols instead took the lead for good with this Iamaleava-to-Brazzell strike.
Week 9 vs. Vanderbilt: Quinn Ewers' 24-yard pass to Silas Bolden (9:32 left in Q4). Win probability added: 7.7%. Texas played in only two one-score games all season -- this 27-24 win over Vanderbilt and the 22-19 SEC championship loss to Georgia. The Horns therefore didn't have too many plays that greatly impacted their overall win probability. In fact, this Ewers-to-Bolden completion on third-and-19 didn't even set up a score; it simply prolonged a fourth-quarter drive and allowed punter Michael Kern to eventually pin Vandy inside the 20. The Horns forced a turnover on downs, kicked a field goal to go up 27-17, then held on late.
Week 14 vs. Texas A&M: Arch Manning's 15-yard touchdown run (3:45 left in Q1). Win probability added: 6.2%. In one of the most highly anticipated games of the season, Texas took early control with this Manning run, then eased out to a 17-0 halftime lead.
Week 14 vs. Texas A&M: Vernon Broughton and Jermayne Lole tackle Amari Daniels for no gain (5:14 left in Q4). Win probability added: 8.3%. Thanks to a third-quarter pick-six return by the Aggies, Texas couldn't quite pull away, but a late goal-line stand maintained a 17-7 lead and comfortable win.
On to this week's playoff games!
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Saturday, noon ET, TNT/Max
It was easy to theorize that playoff expansion would help a very specific type of team more than others. It would help a program that is consistently excellent but never the best in its conference, one capable of consistently going 10-2 but one with a lower talent level than, say, Georgia or Ohio State.
You know, a program like Penn State. James Franklin's Nittany Lions have gone 32-7 over the past three seasons -- 32-1 as a favorite and 0-6 as an underdog, all against teams in the AP top four. Penn State mitigates risk, takes its time and eventually finds a way past all but the most elite opponents.
SMU, meanwhile, usurped Alabama and reached the CFP almost because of risk. Quarterback Kevin Jennings ranks ninth in yards per dropback but has thrown seven interceptions in his past seven games. Among the 12 CFP teams, the Mustangs' 13.4 yards per successful play is easily the highest, and their 21 turnovers is the second most, behind only Texas. Their innate volatility has helped lead to two losses as a favorite and two wins as an underdog.
Against the two best defenses, per SP+, it has faced (Duke and Clemson), SMU generated nine gains of 20-plus yards, averaged 5.8 yards per play and committed eight turnovers. Penn State's defense, by the way, ranks quite a bit higher than Duke's or Clemson's. Jennings did show something a little different against Clemson in the ACC championship game: The Mustangs trailed 24-7 at halftime, and Clemson made them grind their way back into the game with short gains. They did exactly that.
As good as Penn State's defense might be, the Nittany Lions have been fallible. Against three teams in the offensive SP+ top 25 (USC, Ohio State and Oregon), they allowed 31.7 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. All three found success with balance: Each rushed for at least 176 yards, and only Ohio State threw for less than 220 yards.
SMU can do balance. Including 35 catches, running back Brashard Smith averages 19.4 touches per game and 6.2 yards per touch. Smith and tight end Matthew Hibner (who has capably replaced injured starter RJ Maryland) bring a physical component to the table, while a deep receiving corps led by Roderick Daniels Jr. brings speed.
Penn State's defense is built around negative plays. The Nittany Lions rank 37th in success rate allowed and 36th in yards allowed per successful play, but they eventually break up drives by either stuffing the run (fifth in stuff rate) or harassing the QB into a mistake (ninth in pressure rate). Linebacker Kobe King, edge rusher Abdul Carter and tackle Zane Durant are keys to the former, while Carter and end Dani Dennis-Sutton are keys to the latter.
While Penn State's defense is built to create havoc, the Nittany Lions' offense avoids it at all costs.
Quarterback Drew Allar showed an encouraging late run of playmaking against Oregon in the Big Ten championship loss. He has started against five top-10 defenses (per SP+) in his career, and after averaging a ghastly 3.8 yards per dropback in three such games last season, he's at 6.3 in two games this year. And after averaging 4.5 yards per play against those defenses in 2023, the Nittany Lions are at 5.9 YPP this year. Red zone failures kept them at 13 points against Ohio State, but that hasn't been a chronic issue this year, and they broke through for 37 points and 518 yards against Oregon in Indianapolis. Backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 24 carries and 229 yards, and Allar, the former blue-chipper with the five-star arm, made some late throws -- one in particular -- that PSU fans had been waiting for.
Drew Allar brings Penn State within eight points late in the fourth quarter with a touchdown pass to Harrison Wallace III against the Ducks.
Whew. This isn't the most explosive offense in the world, but it's super efficient, and against Oregon the Nittany Lions learned they might have a bit more explosiveness than they realized.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki evidently won't have backup quarterback and utility man Beau Pribula, but if the run game is clicking, that might not matter much. That said, SMU's run defense is in no way a pushover. The Mustangs rank fifth nationally in non-sack yards allowed per carry (3.7) and 25th in rushing success rate allowed (37.5%). Linebackers Kobe Wilson and Ahmad Walker and big end Elijah Roberts have all made double-digit run stops, and despite whatever assumptions you might have about a team that was technically a mid-major as recently as last season, SMU brings all the requisite girth to the table: Its three-man starting line averages 6-foot-4, 312 pounds.
There's a version of this game where Penn State, in front of a rocking home crowd, controls the line of scrimmage on offense, feeds Singleton and Allen often, forces a couple of turnovers, and controls the game from start to finish. But the Mustangs could also find some early chunk plays, force Allar to make plays on second- or third-and-long and make Beaver Stadium a lot less jolly.
Current line: PSU -8.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 5.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 7.1
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, TNT/Max
It took some wildly clutch plays (and some turnovers luck) against Pitt and SMU, but Clemson sneaked its way into the CFP via the ACC championship and, as a fun twist, stole a bid from head coach Dabo Swinney's alma mater, Alabama. While the Tigers' stay is projected to be brief, they are paired with an opponent whose biggest weakness -- committing turnovers -- aligns with their own biggest strength.
Texas is 0-2 against Georgia this season but 11-0 against everyone else. The Longhorns averaged 7.0 wins per year and an SP+ ranking of 33.8 from 2010 to 2022, but now that they're playoff-caliber again, it feels awfully natural.
This Texas defense is brilliant. The Horns rank first in yards allowed per play, second in points allowed per drive and first in yards allowed per dropback. They will let teams run the ball, but only for a few yards at a time thanks to Anthony Hill Jr. and the nation's best linebacking corps. Eventually teams have to pass, and Jahdae Barron and a brilliant secondary will probably punish them for doing so.
The offense was a mess down the stretch, though. In their past seven games, the Horns have underachieved against SP+ offensive projections by 8.2 points per game; they played a series of good to awesome defenses, but still: They're 63rd in interception rate (2.5%), 93rd in havoc rate allowed (16.7%), 96th in turnover rate (2.4%) and 123rd in TFLs allowed (86).
(Havoc rate is total tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups and forced fumbles divided by total snaps.)
Even worse, they're committing turnovers without risk: Quarterback Quinn Ewers throws some of the shortest passes in the nation on average. The Longhorns take a lot of sacks despite this, too (68th in sack rate).
For as much as Clemson's offensive regression defined recent seasons, slippage on defense hasn't helped, and the offense actually ranks higher (16th) than the defense (22nd) this year. The Tigers defend well, but they aren't elite, and the main issue seems to be that the risk-reward balance is off.
The Tigers still rank a healthy 16th in havoc rate (19.3%) and eighth in percentage of plays allowing zero or fewer yards (38.5%). But they allow 13.1 yards per successful play (105th), and 7.7% of opponents' plays have gained 20-plus yards (110th). They might burn you, or you might burn them. This is basically the SMU offense of defenses. And whether it keeps Clemson in the game is probably up to Ewers.
Clemson plays a lot of man coverage with Avieon Terrell, Jeadyn Lukus and Ashton Hampton (combined: 5 interceptions, 23 breakups and only 6 completions of 20-plus yards allowed), and in the SEC championship game, Georgia forced a ton of mistakes from Ewers in man coverage, from which it picked off two passes and recorded four of its six sacks. Clemson has basically a one-man pass rush (T.J. Parker), but Parker is on a tear: In his past five games, he has 12 TFLs and six sacks.
The Georgia performance was a continuation of Ewers' poor recent form. In his past four games, he's averaging just 6.2 yards per dropback with more combined sacks (10) and interceptions (three) than completions over 20 yards (12). Texas found a power identity to get through some of this stretch, with Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue combining for 142 rushing yards against Arkansas, 254 against Kentucky and 193, mostly from Wisner, against Texas A&M.
But they managed only 53 combined yards against Georgia, and it was clear coach Steve Sarkisian didn't trust Ewers and didn't seem to know what plays to call. (Not having star injured left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. certainly didn't help. He's supposed to return Saturday.) Even with a randomly explosive receiving corps -- Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond and Ryan Wingo have combined for 1,658 yards and 15 touchdowns at 16.1 yards per catch -- it feels like the passing game has become Texas' fatal flaw.
Of course, even if Clemson is forcing mistakes from Ewers, the Tigers will still have to move the ball. That will be an issue, both because of how good Texas' defense is and how poorly Clemson has moved the ball against good defenses. Against five opponents ranked between 11th and 37th in defensive SP+, Clemson has averaged a paltry 19.2 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. Cade Klubnik against these five defenses: 59% completion rate, 9.8 yards per completion, 5.2 yards per dropback, 12 sacks. And at second in defensive SP+, Texas has easily the best defense the Tigers have faced.
Running back Phil Mafah, banged up as he might be, could find some room to run here and there, but Antonio Williams and big-play threats Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore will need at least a couple of chunk plays. (And for what it's worth, Klubnik is one of the more successful deep-ball passers in the playoff.)
Clemson will need at least a plus-2 turnover margin to make this interesting, and considering the Tigers barely got past SMU at plus-2, they might need plus-3. The game could come down to how generous Ewers is and whether Klubnik hits a deep shot or two. Texas is going to win more plays, but if Clemson wins the right ones ...
Current line: Texas -12 | SP+ projection: Texas by 13.2 | FPI projection: Texas by 14.9
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
Ohio State and Tennessee have combined for 67 AP top-10 finishes and 43 top-five finishes and claim 14 combined national titles. But they've faced off just once. In the 1996 Florida Citrus Bowl, Tennessee's Jay Graham outrushed Heisman winner Eddie George, the Volunteers' defense recovered three fumbles in Ohio State's final four drives and Phil Fulmer's (and Peyton Manning's) Vols prevailed over John Cooper's Buckeyes 20-14. These are two teams with huge fan bases, separated by fewer than 400 miles, and that's their entire shared history. Or at least, it is until this Saturday night.
Both Tennessee and Ohio State suffered only one regular-season loss in 1995; this time around, both Josh Heupel's Vols and Ryan Day's Buckeyes suffered two. They both reached the CFP comfortably, but they have a difficult path ahead. The winner will face top-seeded Oregon in the Rose Bowl and would have to win two more games after that to take the title. Both are talented enough to make that run, and at worst they have two of the three best defenses in this tournament. But as jarring as it feels to say about these teams in particular, offensive question marks will get one of them eliminated in the first round.
Tennessee has leaned heavily on a relentless, Jay Graham-like rusher in Dylan Sampson (1,485 yards, 22 TDs) and a line that has barely missed a run block all year (fourth in stuff rate allowed). But the Volunteers lean on Sampson not only because he's awesome but also because they can't trust the pass as much as they'd prefer: Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has the lowest Total QBR rating of any starting quarterback in the field (without getting into the injury status for Georgia's Carson Beck, anyway).
Against six opponents ranked in the defensive SP+ top 40, Iamaleava averaged just 10.9 yards per completion and 5.6 yards per dropback. He doesn't make many mistakes from a turnovers perspective, but he takes a ton of sacks -- he had a 10.3% sack rate against these six opponents and took three sacks in five of the six games. He also hasn't been able to offset the negative plays with chunk plays: Against these six good defenses, he was just 5-for-22 (23%) on passes 20 yards or further downfield. The national completion rate on those throws is 36%.
At some point, Iamaleava stopped looking downfield altogether. He attempted just two passes of 20-plus against Kentucky and one against Georgia, and over his past three games he's a combined 0-for-4. And last we saw Tennessee's receiving corps, all three starters -- Dont'e Thornton, Bru McCoy and Squirrel White -- were injured. Heupel has been vague about their status; I assume they will all play Saturday.
Ohio State combines a dynamite pass rush (third in sack rate, fourth in pressure rate) with, at worst, solid coverage. Corners Davison Igbinosun and Denzel Burke aren't the best cornerback combination in the CFP, and Tennessee certainly has high-level athletes out wide. But that matters only if Iamaleava can both stay upright and keep his eyes downfield.
Luckily for the Volunteers, even if their offense isn't working, there's no guaranteeing Ohio State's will be either. Tennessee ranks third in points allowed per drive and fourth in yards allowed per play (first against the run). Outside linebacker Joshua Josephs and tackles Bryson Eason and Omari Thomas all have double-digit run stops, and after a slow start, star pass rusher James Pearce Jr. has picked up steam as well.
For the season, Ohio State's offense has been excellent. The Buckeyes are fifth in points per drive and seventh in yards per play despite having played against six of the top 15 defenses in the country, per SP+. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have combined for 1,556 yards and 14 TDs; receivers Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate have 158 catches, 2,260 yards and 23 TDs; and despite injuries, Ohio State's line ranks sixth in pressure rate allowed.
Crunch time, however, hasn't been Ohio State's friend. After scoring 21 points in their first five drives against Oregon, the Buckeyes scored just 10 in their final five. After scoring 14 points in their first three drives against Penn State, they scored 6 in their last six. After scoring twice in their first four drives against Nebraska, they scored once in their last seven. And of course, after scoring on their first drive against Michigan, they scored once in their last nine possessions and gained just 10 total yards in the fourth quarter.
When things get tight, Ohio State tends to get conservative. And since malfunctioning on the final play against Oregon, quarterback Will Howard is just 17-for-31 for 174 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions when a game is within one score in the second half. The Buckeyes have a scary receiver trio, but they still need a quarterback to put the ball in the pass catchers' hands in key moments.
Ohio State responded beautifully to a frustrating Michigan loss two years ago, sneaking into the CFP and nearly toppling eventual champ Georgia. The Buckeyes have the star power advantage here, but Tennessee doesn't lack in that regard, and one of these teams will ride an excellent defense to Pasadena.
Current line: Buckeyes -7.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 5.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 6.6
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
South Bend is a straight, 200-mile shot north of Bloomington, but Notre Dame and Indiana have played only once in the past 66 years: Rick Mirer outdueled Trent Green (he threw only one interception to Green's four) in a 49-27 Irish home win to start the 1991 season. It took CFP expansion -- and the most incredible turnaround of 2024 -- to get these teams back on the same field.
Notre Dame is exactly where it is supposed to be; Marcus Freeman's Fighting Irish began the season seventh in the AP poll, and despite a unique path -- they won all their biggest games but lost to Northern Illinois in the most inexplicable result of the season -- they're the No. 7 seed. Indiana, however, has been a shocker from start to finish. The Hoosiers, 9-27 over the past three seasons, got here by combining maybe the greatest transfer class ever, the best coaching job in the country and the most fortuitous schedule imaginable.
Curt Cignetti's first Indiana team has at least 16 transfers (and only three or four of last year's Hoosiers starters) playing major roles and got here playing only two teams in the SP+ top 50. The Hoosiers destroyed 10 lesser teams by an average of 37 points, but we don't know what kind of staying power they might have against teams with more elite talent. They faded against Michigan and Ohio State, outscoring them by a combined 24-17 in the first half but getting outscored 36-11 in the second.
Still, from the "it's not who you play, it's how you play" department, few dominated lesser teams so thoroughly. UCLA lost to Penn State by 16 on the road and to Indiana by 29 at home. That Nebraska team that almost upset Ohio State in Columbus? It had lost to Indiana 56-7 the week before.
After a dicey start, Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard has ranked sixth in Total QBR since Week 3, but only 13% of Irish completions have gained 20-plus yards (116th nationally). This team instead gets its big plays from the run game. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price average 133.3 yards per game and 7.2 yards per carry, and Leonard averages 7.0 yards per (non-sack) carry. The Notre Dame O-line, a massive concern early on because of departures and injuries, has played well. Of course, the Irish also have played only one top-30 defense, per SP+. Indiana's defense ranks 10th, with run-defending numbers that can match those of the Irish.
Indiana defense: fourth in rushing success rate allowed (34.1%), third in non-sack yards per carry (3.6)
Notre Dame offense: 19th in rushing success rate (49.0%), second in yards per carry (6.7)
(Success rate is how frequently offenses are gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth.)
Love and Price are explosive, but end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Jailin Walker and the Hoosiers allowed only 4.5 yards per carry to Ohio State's Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. On standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less), Notre Dame ranks 11th in success rate. But on passing downs, the Irish are 95th. If they fall behind the chains, trouble could follow.
Leonard's counterpart, Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke, makes more good plays in blitz situations. More bad plays too.
Rourke has the highest success rate in the country against the blitz. He also takes a ton of sacks. Either he gets you or you get him.
Opponents began to figure out how to get him more late in the season. He suffered just a 2.8% sack rate overall (six total) through the first nine games, but that skyrocketed to 12.5% (11 total) in the last three. He faced more pressure, and a much higher percentage of pressures turned into sacks. (This correlates pretty well with when IU left guard Drew Evans was lost for the season with injury.)
This is a huge issue, but it's just about the only one the Hoosiers have faced. They're first nationally in success rate and second in points per drive. Their game plans are almost perfect: Within the first 15 plays of a given game, only Army has scored more touchdowns than Indiana's 13 (more than one per game!).
Indiana ranks first nationally in passing success rate, but Notre Dame ranks first in passing success rate allowed. The Irish have continued at a high level despite losing star corner Benjamin Morrison to injury. Christian Gray and Leonard Moore are capable corners; Xavier Watts is one of the best safety ball hawks in the country; and the Irish are second in pressure rate, plus get tackle Howard Cross back from a three-game injury. USC's passing success might be a bit of a red flag -- Jayden Maiava threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns (plus the two pick-sixes). Plus, Indiana has an efficient run game (sixth in rushing success rate) to lean on with Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton averaging 120.4 yards per game.
Notre Dame has been one of the best teams in the country since Week 3. The Irish are favored for a reason. But if Indiana wins the game-planning battle, ends drives when Notre Dame is off-schedule and keeps Rourke upright a reasonable amount, the Hoosiers will have a chance to extend their CFP stay.
Current line: Irish -7 | SP+ projection: Irish by 4.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 9.1