When the 2024 season began, 57 teams had at least a 3% chance of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. At the season's midway point, there were still 30 teams that fit that description. Hell, heading into Championship Week, 15 teams still had playoff dreams.
But now, after a breathless 15 weeks and at least one controversial decision, we've got our bracket. And in less than two weeks, we'll have our first four playoff games to revel in.
Unlike a four-team playoff, a 12-teamer is a true tournament, with randomness and bracket-busting potential playing major roles. We therefore don't have a single team with better than a 20.4% chance of winning the national championship, per SP+. (In fact, half the field has between a 9% and 20% title chance. This thing is wide open.) But through the bracket-busting and wildness ahead, someone will win the title.
Here's how each of the 12 playoff teams, listed in order of their seed, could end up on top.
1. Oregon Ducks
First game: vs. Tennessee-Ohio State winner (bye in first round)
National title odds, per SP+: 20.4%
How Oregon can win it all: With precision