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2024 College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 4

Jordan Watkins and Antwane Wells Jr. celebrate during another decisive win by Ole Miss, 52-13 over Georgia Southern. Justin Ford/Getty Images

There was no shortage of drama and wild finishes in Week 4 of the college football season, from Missouri needing double overtime to fend off Vanderbilt to Michigan's comeback win over USC to Colorado's heart-stopping rally to beat Baylor.

Amid all that, we saw a key road win for Utah at Oklahoma State and decisive wins from Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas, Ohio State, Miami and Clemson.

How did it all impact our playoff and bowl projections?

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of Seeds 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowl games, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day on Dec. 8.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 -- ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Georgia

Bonagura: No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Tennessee

Bonagura: No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Tennessee
Schlabach: No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Alabama

Bonagura: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Ole Miss

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: After dropping 70 points on North Carolina, James Madison enters the playoff discussion as the favorite in the Sun Belt. Consideration for the No. 12 spot was also given to UNLV, but given the sheer dominance of James Madison's performance this week, it got the nod for the chance to get run over by Georgia. Other changes for me this week are USC's exit after its loss to Michigan, with the Wolverines jumping back in -- even if their return feels temporary -- and Penn State returning in place of Kansas State.

Schlabach: Utah is back in my top four after its big 22-19 victory at Oklahoma State, which gives the Utes early control of the Big 12. Texas, Ohio State and Miami remain my top three. I still have five SEC teams in my top 12, and we're about to find out which ones are truly the cream of the conference. Georgia plays at Alabama on Saturday night in one of the biggest games of the season. Clemson is also back in my top 12 (replacing USC) after it blasted NC State 59-35 on Saturday. The Tigers seem to have recovered from their ugly opening loss to Georgia. UNLV replaces Memphis as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion.


CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinals at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Utah
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Utah

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinals at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinals at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Texas

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: My only change here is Ole Miss in for USC at No. 8, which helps keep the SEC fever dream of a potential semifinal round with four of its teams alive. The assumption here is that with more conference games ahead, a shake-up is coming, but with 16 teams in the SEC, a lot of them are going to miss each other on the schedule. Ole Miss, for example, misses four of the five other SEC teams in the AP top 10: Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Missouri.

Schlabach: I also have five SEC teams advancing to the quarterfinals, along with Utah, Miami and Ohio State. I have three of those SEC teams -- Georgia, Texas and Tennessee -- getting through to the semifinals. Texas still looks like the best team in the league right now, even with quarterback Arch Manning replacing the injured Quinn Ewers.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinals at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP semifinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Georgia

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: The only noteworthy development at the top seems to be the idea that if there is a drop-off from Ewers to Manning for Texas, it's not a meaningful one (not that a game against Louisiana Monroe is going to reveal much). The Longhorns should roll next week against Mississippi State, then it's a two-game stretch against Oklahoma and Georgia that will likely define their regular season as they have a light backstretch, by SEC standards. The schedule-makers weren't kind to Georgia, which travels to Alabama this week for the first of three away games against top-5 teams in its next six games. If the Bulldogs can manage that stretch, they'll emerge as the national title favorite.

Schlabach: Again, we're going to find out a lot about the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide on Saturday night. Can Georgia's offensive line, which was a bit shaky at Kentucky, hold up on the road? Can quarterback Carson Beck bounce back from a less-than-impressive performance against the Wildcats? Is Jalen Milroe ready to take the next step in coach Kalen DeBoer's offense? Is Tide freshman Ryan Williams that good? Ohio State didn't look great in the first half of its 49-14 victory over Marshall on Saturday, but I still think the Buckeyes are one of the top two teams in the FBS at the moment.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Grambling vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. NC Central

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Ohio vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Tulane

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: California vs. Boise State

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. UTSA

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Virginia vs. South Alabama

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. UConn
Schlabach: Marshall vs. South Florida

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. San José State
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 26

Detroit Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Michigan State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Texas Tech

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Colorado vs. Army
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: UCF vs. Arkansas

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: Clemson vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. California
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Washington State

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Memphis vs. Duke
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Syracuse

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Nebraska

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Louisville vs. UCF
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Navy
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Washington State vs. BYU
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. USC

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Indiana

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa vs. LSU
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Missouri

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Boston College vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Duke vs. Washington

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Indiana vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Michigan vs. LSU

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Oklahoma

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ESPN

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas A&M

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. North Texas
Schlabach: BYU vs. Georgia Tech

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: SMU vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Rutgers

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Eastern Michigan