Members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will tell you repeatedly they rank teams -- not conferences.
If the 13-member group were to meet today, though, it would be clear the SEC is leading the playoff race. Remember, the committee doesn't rank teams the old-fashioned way -- moving them up a spot or two with a win, down a spot or two with a loss. It's a far more detailed conversation and evaluation, which is why Tennessee's win at Oklahoma on Saturday could catapult the Volunteers more seriously into the playoff conversation than the latest Associated Press poll might indicate.
Just how high can they climb? There would be selection committee members who would reward Tennessee for a better combination of résumé and eye test than Ohio State. They would put Tennessee and Ohio State side-by-side on their giant flat-screen computers for a statistical comparison -- and they would see two very similar teams. The biggest difference is the Vols' win at OU.
Here's how Saturday's results might affect the committee's top 12, if it were released today, based on each contender's résumé to date. Remember, this is NOT a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it's a snapshot of who's in the driver's seat now, based on what they have done to this point.
The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
So here's our fourth prediction of the season for how the committee would rank -- not seed -- the top 12 teams.
1. Texas Longhorns (4-0)
Why they could be here: Texas has the best combination of metrics, game film and schedule strength -- all factors the selection committee prioritizes. The Longhorns entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in the country in game control, No. 2 in total efficiency (96.8), and No. 3 in ESPN's strength of record metric. Instead of being an obstacle, the oblique injury to starting quarterback Quinn Ewers only illustrated how good the Longhorns' quarterback room is with backup Arch Manning in the starting lineup.
Why they could be lower: It's hard to imagine Texas dropping from the top spot after a win -- especially when Georgia had a bye week. Unless there is movement above a team, the committee doesn't typically change rankings if teams don't play. That's why it's unusual to see much movement on Selection Day beyond the teams that played in their conference title games.
Need to know: The Longhorns' win at Michigan looks even better after the Wolverines beat USC on Saturday and showed significant improvement up front in the process. It's also part of the committee's protocol to consider injuries to key players. The group will be aware of how Texas played with and without Ewers. As long as Texas continues to look like a top team with Manning in the lineup -- which it has -- the committee will treat it as such.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs' bye week didn't change anything, plus Texas didn't hurt itself in its win against Louisiana-Monroe. Georgia's ugly 13-12 win against Kentucky is still holding it back.
Why they could be higher: The Bulldogs' season-opening win against Clemson is even more impressive after the Tigers' back-to-back dominant wins against App State and NC State. After scoring only three points against Georgia, Clemson has scored at least 59 points in consecutive wins. The only other reason the Bulldogs would be No. 1 is if more committee members simply thought Georgia was better on paper and film than Texas at this point.
Need to know: Georgia entered this week No. 2 in the country in ESPN's strength of record metric, which has historically been on par with the selection committee's top four. If Georgia wins at Alabama on Sept. 28, the Bulldogs could have a case for the top spot, depending on how the game unfolds. ESPN Analytics gives Alabama a 67.1% chance to win.
3. Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)
Why they could be here: For weeks, Tennessee had been passing the eye test, but the Vols finally added a statement win to their playoff résumé, beating a ranked SEC opponent in a true road game. The Vols entered Saturday's game at Oklahoma ranked No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency and No. 5 in offensive efficiency. That was evidenced on the field against the Sooners, as quarterback Nico Iamaleava managed the game well in a tough environment and the defense stifled the Sooners for the majority of the game.
Why they could be lower: There could be committee members who reward Ohio State for the playmakers at nearly every position -- running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes racked up 9 yards per carry and 569 total yards. If Ohio State is ranked ahead of Tennessee, it's because the Buckeyes are oozing talent, not because of whom they beat.
Need to know: This was an important win for the Vols because they still have to face both Alabama and Georgia this season -- their two most difficult remaining games. If Tennessee goes 0-2 against them, they need to hope the selection committee ranks Oklahoma because the season-opening win against NC State has already been devalued and there aren't any other opportunities against ranked opponents.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)
Why they could be here: Ohio State still doesn't have a playoff résumé that compares to Texas, Georgia or Tennessee -- all of which have nonconference wins against ranked Power 4 opponents. After a slow start against Marshall that resulted in a 28-14 halftime lead, Ohio State separated itself and overpowered the Thundering Herd with an abundance of talent.
Why they could be higher: See above for why Tennessee could be lower. But Ohio State's schedule strength to this point ranks No. 127 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, with three straight home games against unranked Group of 5 opponents Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall.
Need to know: Ohio State probably won't face a ranked opponent until its Oct. 12 trip to Oregon, which will be critical for both the conference and playoff races. The Buckeyes will have plenty of opportunities to compensate for a slow September start heading into the first CFP ranking of the season. In addition to the trip to Autzen, Ohio State also goes to Penn State on Nov. 2 -- the last Saturday before the committee's first Tuesday ranking.
5. Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)
Why they could be here: Another drubbing of an unranked Group of 5 opponent isn't going to move the needle in the selection committee meeting room, but the Rebels are also clearly one of the most talented teams in the country.
Why they could be higher: Some committee members could make the case for the Rebels to be ahead of Ohio State because of their road win against Wake Forest, which is a Power 4 win the Buckeyes don't have. They also have the better quarterback in Jaxson Dart, who entered Saturday ranked No. 2 in the country with an 83% completion rate. Others in the room, though, would argue the Rebels racked up 76 of their points against an overmatched FCS opponent, Furman, and that 1-2 Wake Forest isn't much better than some Group of 5 opponents right now.
Need to know: Ole Miss entered Week 4 ranked in the top 7 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which has been a common trait of past playoff teams. The Rebels are also No. 2 in the country in ESPN's game control metric, which is important because the committee will see that those padded stats have come against the No. 121 schedule in the country.
6. Miami Hurricanes (4-0)
Why they could be here: Miami has found some consistency under coach Mario Cristobal, showing no signs of an upset loss at South Florida, which could have been a trap game. The Bulls, which gave Alabama fits two years in a row, kept within striking distance in the first half, but Miami's defense was smothering in the second half as the Canes pulled away. A lack of a signature win -- and no road games -- would stand out to the committee members, but they would clearly recognize the talent, beginning with quarterback Cam Ward.
Why they could be lower: The Canes have yet to face a ranked opponent -- or leave the state, something they won't do until their Oct. 5 trip to Cal.
Need to know: Even with Clemson's recent rebound, Miami entered Saturday with a 52.4% chance to win the ACC and the seventh-best chance overall to reach the playoff (53.3%). Miami's toughest opponent is Oct. 19 at Louisville, but ESPN Analytics gives the Canes more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games.
7. Oregon Ducks (3-0)
Why they could be here: Not much changed for the Ducks, who had a bye week after their Week 3 win at rival Oregon State. Although Oregon struggled in its season-opening win against Idaho, the Ducks have shown some improvement against quality opponents Boise State and Oregon State and seemed to start to put it all together offensively against their in-state rival.
Why they could be higher: It's hard to make a case for the Ducks to move up just yet. They've been good but not great, both statistically and on film. It's clear that when the offensive line gives him time, quarterback Dillon Gabriel is one of the best in the country.
Need to know: Ohio State entered Week 4 with the highest percentage to win the Big Ten (49%), followed by Oregon (14.9%). This will be settled on the field on Oct. 12, when the Buckeyes travel to Oregon. It will be the Ducks' first opportunity to impress the committee with a win against a ranked opponent, and they should be undefeated heading into that game after facing UCLA and Michigan State.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
Why they could be here: Alabama had a bye week, so the Tide's status didn't change, but three straight wins against unranked opponents probably would keep them from earning one of the committee's top spots at this point. The difference between the Tide and other contenders with similar résumés (like Ohio State) is that others have either looked better, played a tougher schedule or both.
Why they could be higher: Even without retired coach Nick Saban, the Tide has remained dominant under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is leading the No. 5 scoring offense in the country with 49 offensive points per game, and the Tide has been among the nation's best in third-down conversion rates and red zone efficiency. A true road win against Wisconsin is respectable, even though the Badgers were without their injured starting quarterback.
Need to know: Alabama has the ninth-most difficult schedule remaining, according to ESPN Analytics, and it starts in Week 5 against Georgia. Even if the Tide lose that game, it still has opportunities to impress the committee with wins against ranked opponents Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma -- if they're all still ranked by the committee. Those are the kinds of wins Alabama will need to earn an at-large bid if it doesn't win the SEC. As important as the game against Georgia is -- and as much hype as it will receive -- it's not make-or-break time yet.
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)
Why they could be here: Penn State overcame a sluggish start offensively (again) against a winless Kent State team that was down to its third-string quarterback, but you'd never know by looking at the final 56-0 score. In the end, the Nittany Lions left no doubt they were the better team, and this game didn't do anything to help or hurt their playoff résumé in the eyes of the committee. PSU was helped by West Virginia's narrow home win against Kansas because if the Mountaineers finish above .500, Penn State's win in Morgantown will continue to boost its résumé in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: Penn State had a complete performance -- albeit against a lesser opponent -- on a day when some other contenders above them either struggled or lost. In addition to the WVU nonconference road win, the committee will also like what it sees from quarterback Drew Allar. He threw three touchdown passes and ran for another -- all while the defense held Kent State scoreless.
Need to know: Penn State's two most difficult remaining games are Oct. 12 at USC and on Nov. 2 against Ohio State. ESPN Analytics gives the Nittany Lions less than a 50% chance to win each of those games. Though it would be easy to assume a two-loss PSU team finishes in the committee's top 12, that might not be the case. If PSU loses both of those games, it might not have any wins against ranked opponents -- and that would be costly when entering a debate with another contender that does. Considering how well Illinois has been playing, Penn State has to avoid that trap first or it could really be in trouble.
10. Utah Utes (4-0)
Why they could be here: The Utes got their first road win against a ranked Big 12 opponent, adding some validation to their playoff hopes with some substance to their résumé. Utah was the more physical team on both sides against Oklahoma State -- a critical game that will impact their standing in their first season as members of the Big 12. The selection committee wouldn't put Utah much higher, though, because of an FCS win against Southern Utah, another win against a 1-3 Utah State team, and a third against unranked Baylor. The Utes entered Saturday with the No. 115 schedule strength.
Why they could be higher: Utah's defense could impress some selection committee members, as they all value different areas of the game. The Utes were able to stifle both running back Ollie Gordon II and quarterback Alan Bowman, who to this point was able to keep the offense moving when defenses keyed on Gordon.
Need to know: The head-to-head win against another Big 12 team contending for an at-large bid could come into play if neither Utah nor Oklahoma State win their conference. The selection committee will also be aware not just of quarterback Cam Rising's hand injury, but also that the Utes played without defensive starters Connor O'Toole and Karene Reid and were still able to disrupt Oklahoma State's offense.
11. Missouri Tigers (4-0)
Why they could be here: Even coach Eli Drinkwitz acknowledged in his postgame interview that the Tigers have a lot of work to do following their double-overtime win against Vanderbilt. After cruising against FCS Murray State in the season opener and then beating unranked Buffalo 38-0, Missouri has struggled in each of the past two weeks against average-at-best opponents. The Tigers needed a second-half comeback against Boston College and now had to overcome multiple mistakes against Vandy. The committee would note the Tigers have won four straight home games while others have hit the road or won more difficult neutral-site games.
Why they could be higher: It's hard to make a case for the Tigers to move up beyond the dynamic duo of quarterback Brady Cook and receiver Luther Burden III. They continue to be the offensive star power and Mizzou avoided any turnovers against Vandy.
Need to know: Five of Mizzou's final eight games are on the road, including an Oct. 26 trip to Alabama. With the exception of an Oct. 12 trip to UMass, it's only going to get more difficult. If the Tigers don't go 2-0 against Alabama and Oklahoma, they could be in trouble for an at-large bid because of how these September home games have played out, and a lack of statement wins elsewhere on their résumé.
12. Michigan Wolverines (3-1)
Why they could be here: The Wolverines are the only one-loss team in the top 12, and that's because they beat a ranked USC team and showed noticeable improvement up front on both lines since the home loss to Texas. The win gives Michigan's playoff résumé a boost, but it also helps the Wolverines in the Big Ten standings, as USC is now a conference opponent. The selection committee doesn't look ahead, but it knows a playoff team needs to be able to pass the ball to compete for a national title. Though the one-dimensional offense worked against the Trojans, some committee members will eventually want to see more from the passing game.
Why they could be higher: Some committee members might think Michigan is a better team than Missouri, period.
Need to know: Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel is the chair of the selection committee this year, and he is not allowed to vote for Michigan or participate in any discussions about the Wolverines as it pertains to their ranking. The recusal policy requires him to leave the room at that time. It's also technologically impossible for him to vote for Michigan on his CFP-issued computer. Michigan is shaded in gray and he can't click on it with his mouse to rank it. It's the same on every committee member's computer for any teams they might be recused from voting for.
Based on the rankings above, the top four seeds would be: No. 1 Texas (SEC champ), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ), No. 3 Miami (ACC champ) and No. 4 Utah (Big 12 champ). Each would receive a bye. Eight remaining seeds would play on-campus first-round games. Those matchups would be: No. 12 TBD (the top Group of 5 conference champion) at No. 5 Georgia; No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Tennessee; No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ole Miss; and No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oregon.
Michigan, ranked No. 12 above, would not make this version of the playoff with the fifth conference champion from the Group of 5 taking its place.