For at least one Saturday in a given college football season, everything stops making sense. Up becomes down, left becomes right, Virginia's offense forgets its destitution, and things get weird.
The actual damage was minimal in Week 8 -- UVA shocked No. 10 North Carolina, but the only other top-20 teams that lost fell to higher-ranked opponents -- but things were definitely weird. Washington, Oklahoma, Florida State and Texas were favored by a combined 83 points; the latter three trailed in the fourth quarter, and the former was tied. All four ended up winning, as did Ohio State over Penn State and Alabama over Tennessee.
It has been the theme of the 2023 season so far: Things feel unstable, chaos lurks on the horizon ... and most of the top teams keep winning anyway. Saturday was the weirdest "survive and advance week" of the season, and it was all about winning ugly. So let's talk about the degrees of ugly.
Jump to a section:
Ugly wins: OSU, UW, OU, Texas | Ugly for a while: FSU, Bama
Ugly losses: UNC, Iowa | Ugly in a good way: Michigan, LSU
Heisman of week | Top games
Yep, that was ugly
No. 3 Ohio State 20, No. 7 Penn State 12
We knew heading into Saturday's Ohio State-Penn State game that the defenses held most of the advantages. PSU entered the game ranked second in defensive SP+, and Ohio State wasn't far behind in fourth. Throw in a drastically banged up Ohio State skill corps and the fact that this was the first enormous start of Drew Allar's Penn State career, and low point totals were certainly possible.
For the second time this season, Ohio State won a low-point-total game. The Buckeyes averaged just 4.8 yards per play -- it was just the second time in five seasons that they were below 5.0 -- but finished seven possessions in PSU territory and paired two touchdowns with two field goals. Marvin Harrison Jr., maybe the single most important player in the country in terms of "when he does well, they do well" impact, caught 11 balls for 162 yards, 80 after catch.
Eleven other Kyle McCord completions averaged just 11.3 yards, and 37 carries by Buckeyes backs gained just 93 yards. But Ohio State won 21 of the game's 32 third downs (they were 6-for-16, PSU 1-for-16), and that tilted both the field and the game just enough in OSU's favor.
There are two ways to look at results like this. On one hand, this isn't the Ohio State we've grown accustomed to -- one with an otherworldly offense accounting for a hit-or-miss defense -- and considering that version of Ohio State has made five CFP appearances, reached the championship game twice (winning once) and nearly beat Georgia last season, a shift from that identity isn't automatically a good thing.
On the other hand, crafting a defensive identity that pairs occasional Jim Knowles-style aggression with incredible safety play and big-play prevention has worked wonders. Even without injured corner Denzel Burke, OSU held Allar to 18-for-42 passing with one completion of more than 20 yards and four sacks. The big-play issues that destroyed the Buckeyes' defense against Michigan and Georgia last season have been completely erased, and this might be the most underrated unit in the country. There's also nothing saying the offense can't shift into another gear when all the major pieces are healthy moving forward. (Top running back TreVeyon Henderson and No. 2 receiver Emeka Egbuka both missed Saturday's game, and others have been fighting injury issues.)
Winning ugly is not something Ohio State has been known for of late. As long as the Buckeyes can do fun, pretty things on offense at some point down the line, this could be a very good development.
No. 5 Washington 15, Arizona State 7
It wasn't quite as bad as the scoreline might suggest. Washington suffered some bad luck with fumbles (there were four in the game, and ASU recovered three), and turnovers in general made this one strange. Winning a game with a minus-3 turnover margin is really hard, and Kalen DeBoer's Huskies figured out a way to do it. That's not nothing.
Even acknowledging both that and ASU's recent improvement -- the Sun Devils have held their last three opponents to 4.5 yards per play and overachieved SP+ defensive projections by 13.2 points per game -- Saturday night's Washington win ... left something to be desired. The Huskies' defense was rarely challenged, but the offense averaged just 5.2 yards per play (its worst average of the season to date had been 6.8 against Oregon last week), and Michael Penix Jr. threw two picks and averaged just 10.2 yards per completion.
One could forgive UW for playing a bit hungover after last week's marquee win over the Ducks, but needing an 89-yard pick-six to take your first lead halfway through the fourth quarter against a 1-6 team is foreboding, especially considering the upcoming schedule. After a trip to Stanford this week, the Huskies will finish the regular season with USC on the road, Utah at home, Oregon State on the road and Washington State at home. The version of Washington that beat Oregon and won its first four games by an average of 33 points can handle that. The Washington of Saturday night cannot.
First things first: Kudos to UCF. An injury to quarterback John Rhys Plumlee set the Knights back a hair, and they seemed to let their collapse against Baylor beat them twice. After going up 35-7 on Baylor in Week 5, they proceeded to get outscored 80-22 by BU and Kansas over the next 5.5 quarters and lost both games. But after a bye week, with Plumlee back in the fold, they looked like the team I thought might be a Big 12 sleeper.
They also exposed some old Sooners cracks we hadn't seen much of in a while. After giving up 70 plays of 20-plus yards last year (106th), OU had improved its glitchiness this season, but UCF ripped off gains of 86, 54 and 23 in the third quarter alone, then completed a late 39-yarder on the drive that nearly tied it. Those big plays were equalizers. OU held a major efficiency advantage but missed three field goals, and only a poor 2-point conversion attempt by UCF saved the Sooners from a potential overtime.
This wasn't really the type of effort you want after a bye week, and now the Sooners have to travel to Lawrence to take on an even scarier Kansas offense. SP+ projects them as multi-score favorites in every remaining game, but if this was the start of some defensive fissures, this won't be the last down-to-the-wire game between now and the Big 12 championship game.
Texas basically had two weaknesses over the first half of the season: The Longhorns' offense stunk in the red zone (123rd in red zone touchdown rate), and the big plays they allowed on defense were a little too big. The former ended up saving them from the latter Saturday. They scored 24 points on four red zone trips, with three touchdowns and a field goal, but the defense gave up passes of 51, 35, 32, 24, 21 and 21 yards, and after surging to a 21-0 lead over the game's first 20 minutes, the Horns suddenly found themselves in a dogfight. Houston tied the game early in the third quarter and had a chance to tie it again (or take the lead) late in the fourth. But a questionable spot on a third-and-1 rush set up a fourth down, and David Gbenda broke up a pass to seal the win.
"Heavily favored team with bigger games on deck takes a big early lead but shifts into cruise control too early" has bitten many a team, and if UT was looking ahead to its Week 10 matchup with Kansas State, or even a potential Big 12 championship game rematch with Oklahoma, it would be understandable. But this wasn't the first time big plays were an issue for this defense, and if that's an ongoing issue, K-State could take significant advantage in two weeks.
But this wasn't the first time big plays were an issue for this defense. If that's an ongoing issue -- especially with quarterback Quinn Ewers suffering a shoulder injury that will cause him to miss some time (and reduce UT's overall margin for error) -- K-State could take advantage in two weeks.
Ugly for a little while, at least
No. 4 Florida State 38, No. 16 Duke 20
You have to feel for Duke. Despite the fact that quarterback Riley Leonard was extremely limited with an ankle injury, and despite a kick return score from FSU's Deuce Spann in the second quarter, the Blue Devils held a 20-17 lead in the fourth quarter and were driving to go up two scores when Leonard aggravated the injury and had to leave the game. Replacement Henry Belin IV went 1-for-6, the Blue Devils failed on a fourth-and-short near the end zone, and the Seminoles scored the game's final 21 points for a comfortable win.
If Leonard had been able to remain in the game, would the Blue Devils have gone up two scores and potentially taken this one down to the wire? Or would FSU have done what FSU always does in times of trial? The Seminoles' resilience has been by far their best characteristic in 2023. They finished their win over LSU on a 31-7 run, and they finished their win over Clemson on a 24-7 run. Their patience, and their belief in their own playmaking abilities, have offset the fact that most of their underlying numbers are merely good, not great -- they're 45th in offensive success rate, 29th in defensive success rate, 12th in offensive SP+ and 19th in defensive SP+, and they seemed to have disadvantages on both lines for much of the Duke game.
But this team is ridiculously mature and poised, and it's not hard to think they would have still stormed back had they been down 10 in the fourth quarter. Their 14-play, 96-yard go-ahead drive had nothing to do with Leonard, after all, and everything to do with, "We know you can't stop us from winning this game." This is going to be a very difficult team to knock out.
No. 11 Alabama 34, No. 17 Tennessee 20
It's not the best practice to spot a key rival a 13-0 lead in the first quarter, but that's what happened in Tuscaloosa. Tennessee outgained Bama by a 187-36 margin and forced a Jalen Milroe fumble near Alabama's red zone. That the Vols had to settle for two field goals was the only reason the score wasn't more lopsided.
From that point forward, however, the Tide rolled. Alabama outgained the Vols 322-217, allowing Tennessee to drive more than 30 yards on just two of its final 10 possessions. Isaiah Bond (three catches for 77 yards and a score) continued his emergence as a deep-ball threat, Jase McClellan ground out 115 yards and a score, and both Chris Braswell and Dallas Turner recorded a pair of sacks. When it was time to show force, the Tide did so, just as they did against Ole Miss a few weeks ago. Slow starts have been an issue (their first-quarter scoring margin: plus-6), but they remain poised and eventually surge. Their scoring margin in the second and third quarters: plus-85.
SP+ bumped Bama back up to third overall this week; it's the highest the team has ranked since falling to fifth after the loss to Texas. If the Tide can get past LSU in a mammoth Week 10 matchup, they will be awfully well positioned to roll to the SEC championship game, probably against another slow starter, Georgia. For as flawed as they look at times, their national title status remains very much alive.
No. 9 Oregon 38, Washington State 24
Power to both Wazzu and Oregon for showing up after Week 7 disappointments. Oregon had to rebound immediately to keep its national title hopes alive after last week's loss to Washington, and Wazzu was looking to prove itself after a shocking blowout loss at home to Arizona. Oregon began the game with just three points on three drives, and the game was tied at 10 in the final minute of the first half. But a Bo Nix score gave Oregon the lead at halftime, and two long Bucky Irving touchdowns gave the Ducks a cushion in what would become a comfortable win.
Nix threw for 293 yards, Irving and Jordan James rushed for a combined 232 against a flagging Wazzu defense, and Oregon was mature enough not to press when things weren't going well. Per both SP+ and the FPI, the Ducks are the best in the Pac-12 despite the recent loss. But as with Oklahoma and Texas, there have been some big-play issues of late on defense. Wazzu averaged 7.0 yards per play, and if the Cougs had been a bit sharper on key plays -- they were 4-for-14 on third down and 1-for-4 on fourth -- this could have been a very different game. Consider that a warning sign with big-play USC and Oregon State offenses coming to Eugene in November.
This one was destined to be ugly. The last three Air Force-Navy games have averaged just 24 total points, and while Air Force's Troy Calhoun pulled a shocker by starting quarterback Zac Larrier after pronouncing him out "for a while" following a knee injury, Larrier wasn't very effective in keying the option against an extremely option-familiar foe. But he completed a 94-yard pass to Dane Kinamon in the second quarter, and an Alec Mock pick-six in the fourth put the game away.
This could have been a lot worse. Air Force averaged 5.4 yards per play to Navy's 1.9, and the Falcons finished nine drives in Navy territory. Two missed field goals and a lost fumble kept things closer than they might otherwise have been. Still, Larrier's effectiveness will be a big story moving forward as Air Force looks to remain unbeaten and procure the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl slot. The Falcons' stretch run looks trickier than it once did, with games not only against rivals Colorado State and Army and always-formidable Boise State but also with a smoking-hot UNLV team that, per SP+, has become the No. 2 favorite in the Mountain West race.
Ugly losses
Virginia 31, No. 10 North Carolina 27
Not every top team escaped unscathed Saturday. The UNC-UVA rivalry has been playing out on the gridiron since the 1890s, but it's hard to imagine there have been many more surprising results than what unfolded in Chapel Hill on Saturday. Playing at home against a Virginia team that had lost 11 of its past 12 against FBS opponents, the Heels clearly weren't ready for the fight they received.
Virginia scored TDs on two of its first three drives, then uncorked a run of three straight scores in the third and fourth quarters. Shockingly up 31-27 with less than five minutes left, the Cavaliers had a chance to put the game away but lost a fumble through the end zone, and the Heels ended up with two chances to storm back and steal the win. They couldn't do it. Drake Maye went 7-for-16 with an interception and sack in the fourth quarter, and he was outplayed down the stretch by UVA's Tony Muskett.
After averaging just 4.7 yards per play against four power-conference opponents, Virginia averaged 5.2 on Saturday and scored 16.2 more points than projected (by SP+). The UNC defense, so obviously improved for part of 2023, has given up 31 points in back-to-back games. SP+ still gives UNC the second-best odds of winning the ACC title -- 10%, a long distance behind FSU's 75% -- but if the defense is beginning to regress, even 10% is probably unrealistic. When you've struggled as much as UNC has on defense in recent years, it's easy to see signs of a relapse. It's up to the Heels to prove that isn't happening.
Brian Ferentz's Iowa offense has officially taken the fun out of laughing at how bad Iowa's offense is. For each Sunday column, I've been including an "Iowa points watch," in which I document where the Hawkeyes stand in the Drive to 325 -- Iowa needed to score that many points over 13 games for Ferentz to reach his full incentive bonus and theoretically keep his job. But at this point, the Hawkeyes have scored just 156 points and would need to average 33.8 over the next five games to hit 325. They've scored more than 26 points just once.
Despite this, they still should be 7-1. The Hawkeyes fell 12-10 to Minnesota on Saturday, and while dreadful offense certainly held them back -- they gained a disgusting 127 total yards, 2.3 per play -- their defense was as good as ever, and they got screwed by a late, invalid fair catch call that negated a go-ahead punt return score. Their defense is incredible, and if Kirk Ferentz cared even 1% about competent offense, they'd be in incredible shape as a program. They're in good shape as-is.
So yeah, we're retiring the Iowa points watch until there's a reason to resume it. You couldn't even let us have that, Ferentzes.
Things got ugly ... in a good way
No. 2 Michigan 49, Michigan State 0
Michigan keeps playing mediocre teams and making them look like high schoolers. Per SP+, the Wolverines' strength of schedule to date ranks a ghastly 110th overall, but résumé SP+, which compares your scoring margin to what would be expected from a top-five team against your schedule, still ranks the Wolverines first overall because of how dominant they've been.
They have yet to score less than 30 points, and they haven't scored under 45 since Sept. 23. They have yet to allow more than 10 points, and they're first in points allowed per drive and third in points scored per drive. They're an absolute brick wall.
I always like to say it's how you play, not who you play, and even against a bottoming-out Michigan State team Saturday, it was easy to see how dominant Michigan is. The Spartans had averaged 4.6 yards per play against Iowa two weeks ago and 3.5 against Rutgers last week; they scored 40 combined points against those two strong defenses. Against Michigan, they averaged 3.1 yards per play (182 total yards) and scored nothing. They finished one drive inside the Michigan 40.
On the other side of the ball, it was the same story. While the Spartans got torched by a peaking Washington offense in Week 3 (41 points, 9.9 yards per play), they had allowed 4.6 yards per play since, albeit mostly against iffy offenses. Against Michigan, they allowed 6.9. Even filtering out garbage time, MSU's 14% success rate on offense was half of what Iowa allowed them (28%), and Michigan's 62% success rate was far more than MSU had allowed against anyone other than Washington (66%). Michigan has been No. 1 in SP+ for four games now and has exceeded projections by 19.3 points per game in that span -- SP+ knows the Wolverines are the best team in the country at the moment but hasn't caught up to how good they actually are yet. That's a scary thought.
Granted, Army isn't at its Jeff Monken era peak at the moment. This isn't the Army team that nearly beat Michigan in 2019 or Oklahoma in 2018. The Black Knights are attempting to craft a new offensive identity, and it hasn't taken yet. They've averaged 10 points per game over the past four games with two shutout losses. So the fact that LSU's struggling defense pitched one of those shutouts isn't something I'm going to take much from just yet. Hold Alabama to a low total in two weeks, and we'll talk.
Scoring 62 on Army, however, is quite a statement. The Knights were allowing just 20.2 points per game, and they don't typically allow teams enough possessions to put up a gaudy total. But Jayden Daniels and the LSU attack are unstoppable right now. They're up to second in offensive SP+, and they have exceeded offensive projections by an average of 18.2 points per game over the last month. In that span, Daniels has completed more than 70% of his passes in every game with a 13-1 TD-INT ratio, and while he didn't even have to run against Army, his 322 rushing yards in the previous three games are a sign of what he can do when he has to.
SP+ produced an odd-looking pairing in this week's rankings: LSU is now 10th, Florida State 11th. (Here's your reminder that SP+ is intended to be forward-facing -- a résumé tool wouldn't have unbeaten FSU behind a two-loss team it beat.) The Seminoles of course ran past the Tigers in their Week 1 showdown, and LSU fell as low as 25th in SP+ afterward. But a second-half comeback at Missouri in Week 6 -- which handed those Tigers their only loss of the season -- sparked something. LSU pummeled Auburn by 30 last week and embarrassed Army on Saturday. It is peaking at just the right time considering what's on deck: a Week 10 trip to Alabama.
This is almost one of those situations in which you don't want a bye week (in case it messes up your rhythm), but I'm not sure anything could mess up the rhythm Daniels & Co. have found of late. Now we just have to see whether the defense can make stops against an offense with a pulse. The Tigers have played three top-20 offenses (per SP+) and allowed an average of 46 points. Alabama's offense is 15th.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). Here is this week's Heisman top 10:
1. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (21-for-27 for 287 yards and 4 touchdowns against Michigan State)
2. Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State (29 carries for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns against West Virginia)
3. Jalen Green, James Madison (6 tackles, 5.5 TFLs and 5 sacks against Marshall)
4. Jayden Daniels, LSU (11-for-15 for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown, against Army)
5. Sione Vaki, Utah (5 catches for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 68 rushing yards, against USC)
6. Jordan Travis, Florida State (27-for-36 for 268 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, plus 62 rushing yards and a touchdown, against Duke)
7. Thomas Castellanos, Boston College (17-for-29 for 255 yards and an interception, plus 128 rushing yards and two touchdowns, against Georgia Tech)
8. Bo Nix, Oregon (18-for-25 for 293 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown, against Washington State)
9. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (11 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown against Penn State)
10. Mishael Powell, Washington (three tackles, one breakup, one game-changing 89-yard pick-six against Arizona State)
Honestly, either Gordon or Green maybe should have taken the No. 1 spot. They've both been otherworldly of late. During Oklahoma State's three-game winning streak, Gordon has produced 707 rushing and receiving yards with seven touchdowns, and Green was already JMU's midseason MVP before he recorded the first five-sack game in FBS since 2019. But it was just time for McCarthy to rank No. 1. He averages at least 9 yards per dropback every week, he's relentlessly efficient, he remains comfortably No. 1 in Total QBR, and it's not his fault his team is so good (and the schedule has been so mediocre) that he's still only thrown four fourth-quarter passes this season.
A few honorable mentions:
• Bryson Barnes, Utah (14-for-23 for 235 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception, plus 57 rushing yards and a touchdown, against USC)
• Kyle McCord, Ohio State (22-for-35 for 286 yards and a touchdown against Penn State)
• Kye Robichaux, Boston College (21 carries for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 54 receiving yards, against Georgia Tech)
• Cody Schrader, Missouri (26 carries for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 11 receiving yards, against South Carolina)
Through eight weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Jayden Daniels, LSU (44 points)
2. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (34 points)
3. Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (25 points)
4. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (22 points)
5. Caleb Williams, USC (21 points)
6. Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State (17 points)
7. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (16 points)
8. Jordan Travis, Florida State (13 points)
T-9. Elic Ayomanor, Stanford (10 points)
T-9. Brock Bowers, Georgia (10 points)
T-9. Travis Hunter, Colorado (10 points)
T-9. Jack Plummer, Louisville (10 points)
T-9. Tyler Van Dyke, Miami (10 points)
It's fair to assume that Michael Penix Jr. will remain the Heisman front-runner as long as Washington remains unbeaten, but at this point Daniels has been the most important and outstanding player in the country. The Tigers are a disappointing 6-2, but they'd be 4-4 without him. And he still has a chance to play in another SEC championship game to burnish his credentials.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. Virginia 31, No. 10 North Carolina 27: "What you saw is just a group that believed." -- UVA coach Tony Elliott.
2. No. 14 Utah 34, No. 18 USC 32: Sione Vaki's star turn helped give Utah a two-touchdown advantage late in the third quarter, but a Calen Bullock pick-six seemed to turn the game around, and Caleb Williams' 11-yard score with 1:46 left seemed to save USC's wobbling season. But Bryson Barnes stunned the Trojans' defense with a 26-yard run with five seconds left, and Cole Becker's 38-yard field goal at the buzzer gave the Utes their third straight win over the Trojans. USC is going to the Big Ten because of money, but not having to play Utah anymore is one hell of a bonus.
3. No. 6 Oklahoma 31, UCF 29: OU may have won, but only because you don't get bonus points for blowing a kiss to the opposing sideline while scoring on a long bomb.
UCF takes the lead as Javon Baker finds himself wide open for an 86-yard touchdown.
I've giggled about that play on many occasions over the past 24 hours.
4. Wisconsin 25, Illinois 21: What's better than scoring late to regain the lead in the last-ever Big Ten West race? Doing so with an offensive tackle making a balletic touchdown catch.
An absolute beauty 🥹 pic.twitter.com/r2MQW08QoW
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) October 22, 2023
5. Miami 28, Clemson 20 (2OT): True freshman Emory Williams helped generate a pair of fourth-quarter scores to overcome a 17-7 deficit, and even after Mario Cristobal showed less than zero faith in him in an end-of-regulation possession -- instead of trying to move the ball 20-25 yards into field goal range in the final 25 seconds (with a timeout in hand), Cristobal elected to let the clock expire and go to OT -- he completed a pair of first-down passes to set up Ajay Allen's game-winning touchdown.
6. No. 8 Texas 31, Houston 24: A bad spot helped, but UT still had to finish things off. The Horns' title hopes remain alive.
7. UNLV 25, Colorado State 23: This one was an acquired taste of sorts -- there were lots of red zone failures leading to field goals -- but UNLV moved to 6-1 for the first time since 1984 thanks to six Jose Pizano field goals, including three in the fourth quarter and one with just three seconds left.
.@Jp_kicker38 FOR PRESIDENT! 🔥
— UNLV Football (@unlvfootball) October 22, 2023
Pizano's 6️⃣th field goal of the game breaks the single-game record AND earns the Rebel win! 🎉 pic.twitter.com/NpvW5wBo7B
8. Florida International 33, Sam Houston 22 (2OT) (Wednesday): Trying desperately to score its first win since moving to the FBS, Sam Houston took a 20-17 lead with just 1:24 left, but FIU tied it with a 36-yard Chase Gabriel field goal at the buzzer. The teams traded touchdowns in the first OT, but after FIU went up in the second, Jack Daly sacked Keegan Shoemaker on fourth-and-long to clinch an 0-7 start for the home team.
9. Nevada 6, San Diego State 0: Honestly, this game was ... not fun. But fielding a football team is arduous, and everyone deserves to win at least one game each year. Nevada locked up its first with a late fumble recovery and mad celebration.
10. D2: No. 16 Central Missouri 77, No. 24 Emporia State 27: Dramatic finish? Absolutely not. But as a public service I needed you to know that, against a ranked team, Central Missouri gained 976 yards and scored 77 points while playing the backups for the entire fourth quarter. Mules quarterback Zach Zebrowski threw for 615 yards and eight touchdowns, and Marcellous Hawkins had 183 rushing yards and three scores. Emporia State kept up for a little while -- it was 28-20 at the end of the first quarter -- but got plowed under from there.
A game for the record books under the spotlight.
— Mules Football (@UCMFootballTeam) October 22, 2023
Homecoming. Top-25 opponent. Our QB stepped up.
Central Missouri's Harlon Hill candidate: @zach_zebrowski5.#teamUCM x #EPIC pic.twitter.com/eneOGL5hG0
The midweek playlist
Tuesday: Liberty at Western Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU). WKU has disappointed in 2023, but Liberty hasn't exactly lit the world afire of late, needing late heroics to beat 0-7 Sam Houston and 2-6 Middle Tennessee State. WKU still has the upside to knock the Flames from their unbeaten perch.
Wednesday: UTEP at Sam Houston (8 p.m., ESPN2). They've lost three games by one score and only one by more than 14, but SHSU is still looking for its first FBS win, and UTEP might be the best opponent for providing it. SP+ gives the Bearkats a 2.7-point edge. If they're 0-9 after these next two -- UTEP, then FCS foe Kennesaw State in Week 10 -- 0-12 becomes extremely realistic.
Thursday: Syracuse at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Injuries and diminishing returns have wrecked Syracuse's season, but the Orange are still 4-3 and don't have a sure loss remaining on the schedule. Is this where they get off the schneid, or is this where Virginia Tech, 3-4 with two wins in the past three games, makes a push toward 6-6?
Thursday: Georgia State at Georgia Southern (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). One of the most underrated and bitter FBS rivalries gets a prime time slot. Bonus: The Panthers and Eagles are a combined 11-3, and this one has major Sun Belt title implications.