Trailing 20-7 against Tennessee on Saturday, Alabama coach Nick Saban said he told his team at halftime they had a choice to make.
"What do you want to accomplish?" he asked them, "What do you want to do? Everybody's got to choose what they want."
With 27 unanswered points in the second half, Alabama's choice was resounding -- it wants to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation and make a case as the nation's top one-loss team. It will have some competition for that distinction, though, including from the team the Tide lost to in Week 2 -- Texas.
There's also Utah. Oregon. Oregon State. Ole Miss. And Mizzou?! Penn State also joined the club on Saturday following its loss at Ohio State. They're all in good company, as 22 of the 36 teams to make the CFP have had a loss (61%). In 2017, all four CFP teams had a loss, including Alabama, which went on to win the national title. Alabama has finished in the top four with a loss four previous times (2014, 2015, 2017 and 2021) and won the national title twice, according to ESPN's Stats & Information research.
Stumbling once is the norm in the CFP era -- going undefeated is not.
None of them have any margin for error, though. No team has made the playoff with two losses.
"I know this, there's a lot of things we want to get right," Oregon coach Dan Lanning said after his team's win against Washington State. "We can do better. I know the quality of players we have in that room. We have to execute at a higher level moving forward."
They all do. So how do they stack up? And what do they need to happen?
Below is a ranking of the one-loss teams with the best chance to reach the College Football Playoff:
1. Texas Longhorns
Quinn Ewers throws a big 42-yard TD pass to Xavier Worthy, giving Texas a 14-0 lead against Houston.
Lost: vs. Oklahoma, 34-30
Why they're ranked here: Texas has arguably the easiest path to its conference title game of any of the teams listed here. The Longhorns currently have no remaining ranked teams on their schedule before the Big 12 title game. It's likely the Longhorns will meet Oklahoma in that title game (unless OU continues to play with fire like it did Saturday against UCF). In addition to the manageable schedule, Texas also has the road win at Alabama, which continues to boost its résumé as the Tide keeps winning.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: Win out and win the Big 12 title. Hope another conference doesn't have two teams in (which doesn't seem likely right now, given the SEC's lack of depth this year). Hope the Big Ten (Ohio State/Michigan), ACC (Florida State), Pac-12 (Washington) and SEC (Georgia) don't ALL have undefeated champions (which also seems highly unlikely). Stay healthy, avoid an upset and win with style. Houston gave Texas its best shot in a too-close-for-comfort game. While the committee will understand the emotions in that regional game, Texas needs to leave no doubt it's the better team against the rest of its unranked opponents.
2. Oregon Ducks
Lost: at Washington, 36-33
Why they're ranked here: Because the committee showed the scenario was possible last year with USC, and Oregon is in position to follow that blueprint -- with a different end result. In 2022, the Trojans lost their regular-season game to Utah and were still the selection committee's No. 4 team before the Trojans lost to Utah for a second time in the Pac-12 title game. There is a strong possibility Oregon runs the table and earns a rematch with Washington in the conference title game. Oregon avoided what could have been a trap game against Washington State on Saturday, has a Heisman contender at quarterback in Bo Nix and a defense that stifled Colorado and most others along the way. The Ducks' path, though, is more difficult than that of Texas. Oregon travels to Utah on Saturday and still faces USC and Oregon State, which should also be top-25 opponents. If they survive that lineup, it will be hard for the committee to exclude the Ducks.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: The Ducks need to run the table and win the Pac-12 -- ideally in a rematch against Washington. They also need the other top teams in the league -- Oregon State, Utah, USC, Washington -- to stay ranked by the committee. Those conference wins against ranked opponents will help compensate for a weak nonconference schedule that included Portland State, Texas Tech and Hawaii. If Oregon gets into a side-by-side comparison with Texas, it will need its Pac-12 opponents to be ranked -- and it could also have concerns about a common opponent in Texas Tech. The Ducks beat the Red Raiders 38-30 in Week 2, and Texas ends the regular season against them on Nov. 24.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
Lost: vs. Texas, 34-24
Why they're ranked here: The Tide can and likely will finish in the top four if they run the table and beat Georgia to win the SEC title game, but they're not listed higher because they continue to look vulnerable and need to beat LSU along the way. The Tide have a bye week to prepare for LSU, though, and get the Tigers at home on Nov. 4. A road trip to Kentucky isn't a given, nor is the regular-season finale at Auburn. Alabama reasserted itself with a convincing second-half performance against Tennessee, but its offense will have to keep pace with LSU's Jayden Daniels, who has played his way into the Heisman conversation.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: Finish as one-loss SEC champs and avoid a head-to-head debate with Texas for the fourth spot. It couldn't hurt to have Texas win the Big 12, so the Tide could then say its lone loss was to a Power 5 champion. Because the SEC champ has been in the CFP every year since its inception, it's almost unfathomable to think it could be left out -- but what if Florida State is undefeated, Ohio State or Michigan are undefeated, and Washington is undefeated -- and both Texas and Alabama finish as one-loss champs?
4. Utah Utes
Lost: at Oregon State, 21-7
Why they're ranked here: Utah has a respectable nonconference win against Florida and two wins against ranked Pac-12 opponents UCLA and USC. The Utes have knocked the Trojans out of the playoff race two straight years. The question is if they can do anything with it. The Utes have won their conference in each of the past two seasons but failed to finish in the top four because of multiple losses.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: Utah finishes as a one-loss conference champion. It's not a complicated formula, but the Utes still have to face both Oregon and Washington. The ideal scenario would be for Utah to beat Oregon State in the conference title game to avenge its regular-season loss. It will also help Utah if Florida finishes the season in the CFP top 25.
5. Oregon State Beavers
Lost: at Washington State, 38-35
Why they're ranked here: They are behind Utah in spite of the head-to-head because of how difficult it would be to defeat them a second time in the Pac-12 title game AND because Utah's résumé could be slightly more impressive to the committee because of the nonconference win against Florida. The Beavers had an unimpressive September, earning convincing wins against overmatched opponents San Jose State, UC Davis and San Diego State before losing in Pullman in their first real test of the season. They rebounded with statement wins against Utah and UCLA, but both of those games were at home. Oregon State is lower on this list because even if it runs the table, it could face a team in the conference championship game that it already defeated (Oregon or Washington), which would give its résumé less of a boost.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: The Beavers would need to run the table and win the Pac-12, punctuating their regular-season résumé with back-to-back wins against Washington and Oregon. The ideal scenario would be to face USC in the Pac-12 title game, giving the Beavers a shot at another highly-ranked Pac-12 opponent, and one it hasn't faced in the regular season. Hopefully, the strength of its ranked Pac-12 opponents would overcome the weak nonconference schedule.
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
Lost: at Ohio State, 20-12
Why they're ranked here: They just lost the best opportunity to impress the selection committee during the regular season by losing at Ohio State -- bigger than the Nov. 11 home game against Michigan because this was a true road game against a ranked CFP contender. The Nittany Lions' nonconference wins were against West Virginia, Delaware and UMass, which won't impress the committee enough to separate them from another one-loss team with a tougher schedule.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: So many things. Drastic improvement on offense, immediately. Running the table, including beating Michigan at home. Other contenders losing, including Ohio State twice because the Buckeyes will win the head-to-head tiebreaker if they both finish with one loss. Winning the Big Ten. Then hoping a win against Michigan and beating ... Iowa? ... in the Big Ten championship are enough to prove they are one of the four best teams in the country.
7. Missouri Tigers
Lost: vs. LSU, 49-39
Why they're ranked here: Missouri has some respectable wins against K-State and Kentucky that will grab the committee's attention, but the Tigers' best opportunities and a season-defining stretch are in November -- starting with a trip to Georgia. It will be difficult to win out -- and with a weak schedule to this point, there's no margin for error. Missouri hasn't defeated any current top 25 teams, and all four nonconference games were at home. Only one -- Kansas State -- was a Power 5 opponent, and the committee will notice another, South Dakota, is an FCS team, albeit a good one.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: Finish as a one-loss SEC champ. The ideal scenario would be for Mizzou to face LSU in a rematch in the SEC championship game, giving it a chance to redeem its lone loss. If Mizzou were to run the table, win at Georgia and lose a close game to Alabama in the SEC championship game, the committee would have a hard time justifying the Tigers as a top-four team because they would have lost to both Alabama and LSU, leaving doubt they were "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country.
One-loss fringe teams
Ole Miss Rebels
Lost: at Alabama, 24-10
Why they're ranked here: They have to trail Alabama because of the head-to-head, and that loss makes winning the SEC West so much harder. Even if the Rebels run the table, they would need Alabama to lose again, which is possible, but out of their control. And to win out, Ole Miss has to win AT Georgia on Nov. 11.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: In addition to the scenarios mentioned above, the Rebels would need some help -- even with an upset in Athens. If Ole Miss somehow ran the table, but Alabama still won the SEC West, the Rebels would need the committee to deem it "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country. That would be difficult with nonconference wins against FCS school Mercer, Georgia Tech and a respectable Tulane team.
Louisville Cardinals
Lost: Pitt, 38-21
Why they're ranked here: Like UNC, the Cardinals have a loss devastating enough to keep them out of the playoff, but they're a notch above the Tar Heels because of their win against Notre Dame. Nonconference wins against Murray State and Indiana aren't going to help compensate for a schedule that might only include one regular-season win against a ranked opponent.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: Finish as a one-loss ACC champ, hope Notre Dame wins out and other Power 5 champions have multiple losses -- including at least one also has a loss equivalent to losing to 2-5 Pitt.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Lost: vs. Virginia, 31-27
Why they're ranked here: Long shot is being kind after that loss Saturday. The Tar Heels undefeated season was marred by a shocking loss to Virginia, which came to Chapel Hill having won just one game this season. The committee will consider that a bad loss and one significant enough to keep the Tar Heels out, even if they win the ACC. UNC doesn't have any wins against ranked opponents to this point, and needed double overtime to beat Appalachian State. It also has a home game against Campbell on its schedule. If the loss doesn't keep the Tar Heels out, that might.
What needs to happen to reach CFP: UNC needs to finish as a one-loss ACC champ AND have multiple meltdowns in the other Power 5 conference races. A one-loss UNC is highly unlikely to unseat any other one-loss or undefeated Power 5 champion, unless somebody else with a similar résumé also suffers a loss equally embarrassing.