Arguing season approaches. In two weeks, the first College Football Playoff rankings will be released, and we'll be re-immersed in terms we spend the first half of the season attempting to ignore. Strength of schedule. Strength of record. Best win. They'll all be used in abstract and, because it's impossible to rank teams without getting messy, sometimes contradictory ways.
One thing we can't really start arguing about just yet: quality of loss. There haven't been enough of them!
Eleven unbeaten teams remain in the FBS ranks. At this point last year, there were nine. And while last year's list included upstarts like Syracuse, UCLA and Ole Miss, this year's list mostly includes two categories: mid-majors and heavyweights. Air Force, James Madison and Liberty continue to represent (and dominate) their respective Group of 5 conferences, but of the other eight, seven have won national titles in the past 40 years, and six began the season in the AP top 10. Some of them have already survived huge top-15 clashes -- Florida State over LSU, Ohio State over Notre Dame, Oklahoma over Texas, Washington over Oregon -- and others, like Michigan and Georgia, await their first marquee tests. But while the arguing is only beginning, there is common ground among the Elite 11: zeroes at the end of their record.
Let's rank Week 8's unbeatens (starting at No. 11)!
11. Liberty Flames
Last week's ranking: 14th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 57th and 58th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 30%
What they did in Week 7: defeated Jacksonville State 31-13
Next big test (next game with SP+ win probability at 75% or lower): Week 9 at Western Kentucky
Midseason MVP: CB Kobe Singleton. Despite head coach Jamey Chadwell's offensive bona fides, the Flames' defense has been their best unit this season, ranking 18th in yards allowed per possession (1.4) and forcing three-and-outs 44% of the time (fourth). The run defense has been a little bit bend-don't-break. Despite an iffy pass rush, the secondary has dominated. Liberty ranks ninth in passing success rate involved and 12th in raw QBR allowed, and no secondary in the country is making more havoc plays (pass defended, TFLs and forced fumbles). Singleton, a Southern Utah transfer, has allowed completions on just 13 of 32 passes with one touchdown while picking off three passes.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: QB Kaidon Salter. I won't pretend Liberty has an elite schedule -- none of its six previous opponents ranks better than 97th in SP+, and no one left on the schedule ranks higher than 92nd. Against the only two top-80 defenses they've faced, the Flames found their run game sputtering a bit and had to lean on Salter's passing. He and big-play receivers CJ Daniels and Treon Sibley created enough chunk plays to win comfortably: Salter went a combined 23-for-40 for 434 yards, three TDs and one interception.
They'll have to keep that up, especially against decent defenses like Old Dominion and UTEP.
10. James Madison Dukes
Last week's ranking: 13th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 42nd and 54th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 14%
What they did in Week 7: defeated Georgia Southern 41-13
Next big test: Week 8 at Marshall
Midseason MVP: DE Jalen Green. In 2022, JMU began the season 5-0 but fell to Georgia Southern in game six. This time around, the Dukes trounced the Eagles 41-13 to move to 6-0. A devastating pass defense held Georgia State's Davis Brin to 8.7 yards per completion with three sacks and two interceptions.
Green had 1.5 of those sacks and a forced fumble, giving him 8 sacks, 21 pressures and 2 forced fumbles, plus 6 more sacks created (first pressures on plays that result in sacks). The Dukes rank sixth in success rate allowed (first against the run) and 12th in sacks per dropback. They force you behind schedule and tee off.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: QB Jordan McCloud. Good defense and special teams create great field position for the JMU offense -- the Dukes rank sixth in average starting field position (34.1) -- but they're only 65th in points per drive and 104th in yards per drive. The run game is inefficient, and while McCloud, a transfer from USF and Arizona, is completing 65% of his passes with a 14-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio, he's struggling to pass when he has to. JMU ranks 100th in passing downs* success rate, and all-or-nothing No. 1 receiver Reggie Brown is catching only 51% of his (mostly deeper) targets. A few more easy pitches and catches in key situations would go a long way in the tight games that still await in Sun Belt play.
* Passing downs: second-and-8 or more and third- and fourth-and-5 or more.
9. Air Force Falcons
Last week's ranking: 12th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 35th and 46th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 28%
What they did in Week 7: defeated Wyoming 34-27
Next big test: Week 13 at Boise State
Midseason MVP: QB Zac Larrier. Maybe the most impressive stat from Air Force's comeback win over Wyoming: Not including a victory-formation kneel-down, the Falcons lost yardage on just one of 52 rushes. Larrier rushed 20 times for 111 yards and made nearly perfect decisions in piloting the Air Force option. The Falcons are always moving forward, and even after falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter, they relentlessly came back to rush for 356 yards in a win.
The pass wasn't really working for Larrier against Wyoming, but for the season he has picked his spots perfectly, completing 20 of 28 passes for 468 yards, four touchdowns and no picks. Air Force ranks fifth in rushing success rate, first in passing explosiveness and first in red zone touchdown rate. Haaziq Daniels was an excellent, multiyear starter for Air Force, but Larrier has taken this offense to a different level.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: CB Jerome Gaillard Jr. Wyoming scored only 13 points after the first quarter on Saturday evening, and Air Force limited the Cowboys' rushing attack. But among Andrew Peasley's 15 completions were gains of 27, 23, 22, 22, 18, 17 and 16 yards. Wyoming found open receivers downfield, and it highlighted a relative weakness: Air Force is only 54th in passing success rate allowed and 92nd in completion rate allowed, and better opposing offenses like UNLV's and Boise State's will almost certainly try to carve out some advantages against Gaillard & Co.
8. North Carolina Tar Heels
Last week's ranking: 10th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 14th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 12%
What they did in Week 7: defeated No. 25 Miami 41-31
Next big test: Week 11 vs. Duke
Midseason MVP: QB Drake Maye. Obviously. The future top-five draft pick ranks eighth in Total QBR. The Tar Heels have played against four teams ranked 41st or better in defensive SP+, and they averaged 38.3 points per game and 6.4 yards per play in those games. Maye just lost receiver Kobe Paysour to a broken foot, but the addition of freshly eligible transfer Tez Walker -- six catches for 132 yards and three scores against Miami on Saturday -- should offset that pretty well.
Maye and the offense are humming, and while the defense still isn't particularly awesome, when you rank sixth in offensive SP+, you need only a top-40 or so defense to win a ton of games. UNC's is currently 42nd.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: nickelback Alijah Huzzie. The Heels have played two teams with top-40 offenses, per SP+ (South Carolina and Miami) and allowed 744 passing yards and a 69% completion rate in those games. They were able to limit both opponents' run games, but for the season, 58% of opponents' completions have gone for a first down (118th) and 18% have gone for 20-plus yards (86th). The pass rush is merely average, and the secondary, led by Huzzie and corner Marcus Allen, will need to make more plays, especially against the offenses they'll face like Duke and Clemson in the coming weeks.
UNC will be heavily favored in each of the next three games (Virginia, at Georgia Tech, Campbell), but November challenges await. We'll see if the secondary's up for it.
7. Florida State Seminoles
Last week's ranking: 8th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 11th and ninth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 16%
What they did in Week 7: defeated Syracuse 41-3
Next big test: Week 8 vs. Duke
Midseason MVP: QB Jordan Travis. I almost went with transformative cornerback transfer Fentrell Cypress II here, but that would have been overthinking. Despite a surprisingly inconsistent run game, and despite a recent injury to star receiver Johnny Wilson, FSU's offense continues to churn -- the Noles are 11th in points per drive and have scored at least 31 points in every game -- and Travis gets obvious credit for that. He's not doing as much damage as normal in the ground game, but he's taking few sacks, and his 13-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio says quite a bit about his decision-making.
This is a remarkably balanced team -- per SP+ FSU is 15th on offense, 16th on defense and first in special teams -- and Travis' steadiness in key moments against LSU, Boston College and Clemson was noteworthy.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: RB Trey Benson. It's strange to consider the FSU run game a weak spot when both Benson and deputy Lawrance Toafili are averaging 7.1 yards per carry, but FSU ranks 111th in rushing success rate and 106th in opportunity rate (the percentage of carries gaining at least 4 yards). The Noles also rank fourth with five rushes of 40-plus yards, but big plays are unreliable, and the run game ground to a halt against Clemson in a narrow win. Duke and Miami, among others, could push FSU behind schedule quite a bit if the Noles can't find a bit more consistency here.
6. Oklahoma Sooners
Last week's ranking: 6th
SP+ and FPI rankings: seventh and second
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 25%
What they did in Week 7: idle
Next big test: Week 9 at Kansas
Midseason MVP: QB Dillon Gabriel. It's almost boring to choose QBs as MVPs because it seems so obvious, but when it's true, it's true. Gabriel shined with both arm and legs in the Sooners' big win over Texas, and if the Heisman vote were today he would likely land in the top five. Only Michigan's J.J. McCarthy and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. rank higher in Total QBR.
That the OU defense, quarterbacked in essence by linebacker Danny Stutsman, is up to 23rd in defensive SP+ is helpful -- the Sooners haven't finished that high since 2013. But OU is fifth in offensive SP+ despite a mostly big play-deficient run game. Gabriel's having a hell of a season, and his receiving corps should prove deep enough to account for the loss of Andrel Anthony to injury.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: DE Rondell Bothroyd. The OU run defense has been outstanding, allowing only 39% of carries to gain 4 or more yards (ninth) and stuffing 29% of carries at or behind the line (fourth). But while the Sooners also rank ninth in pressure rate, they're only 85th in sacks per dropback, and it's holding back the pass defense, which has allowed 20 completions of 20-plus yards (60th).
Bothroyd has eight pressures but no sacks, and if he and the Sooners' front can bring the QB down a few more times, this defense goes to a completely different level.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions
Last week's ranking: seventh
SP+ and FPI rankings: eighth and ninth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 9%
What they did in Week 7: defeated UMass 63-0
Next big test: Week 8 at Ohio State
Midseason MVP: DE Adisa Isaac. Penn State currently ranks first in QBR allowed, first in yards allowed per dropback, first in completion rate allowed and first in passing success rate allowed. The secondary has dominated, as has a pass rush that ranks first in pressure rate and second in sacks per dropback.
Take your pick as to whether you think the secondary (led by corner Kalen King) or pass rush has been a more integral piece of this puzzle; either way, Isaac has been incredible, racking up five sacks and 14 pressures in just 66 pass rush attempts while contributing well in run defense and even dropping into coverage a few times. He's a perfect piece for defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, and he's dominating.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: QB Drew Allar. It's time. For six games against mostly outmanned opposition, Allar has played it safe. He has completed 65% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions, which is about all you could ask of a blue-chip youngster. But for PSU to remain on this list a week from now, he's almost certainly going to have to make some plays downfield.
Allar has thrown only eight passes over 20 yards downfield in six games, and he has landed only one of his past six. Ohio State has been brilliant in terms of big-play prevention this year, and Allar might not get that many opportunities. But even one over-the-top connection would make a massive difference.
4. Georgia Bulldogs
Last week's ranking: 2nd
SP+ and FPI rankings: third and eighth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 24%
What they did in Week 7: defeated Vanderbilt 37-20
Next big test: Week 11 vs. Ole Miss
Midseason MVP: TE Brock Bowers. Despite frustratingly slow starts and the distinct impression that Georgia has spent a lot of time in second gear this season, the Bulldogs have gone down to the wire in only one game -- Week 5 at Auburn -- and Bowers, with eight catches for 157 yards and the game-winning touchdown, carried them to victory. The pass defense remains elite, and the receiving corps has other efficiency weapons, but Carson Beck has leaned on Bowers an increasing amount as the season has unfolded.
That will make Bowers' absence interesting. Bowers is out four to six weeks after Saturday's ankle injury (and the proceeding surgery), so Beck will have to lean more heavily on players like slot man Dominic Lovett and backup tight end Oscar Delp. This is Georgia -- almost everyone involved was a high-level blue-chipper -- but the Dawgs might have to beat Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee (combined record: 21-5) without their MVP.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: slot WR Dominic Lovett. The junior from East St. Louis was a dynamite weapon both near to and far from the line of scrimmage at Missouri last year, but since transferring, he primarily has done just the "near to" part of that. He's averaging just 9.1 yards per reception, and he has been targeted more than 20 yards downfield only three times. We know he can expand his repertoire if asked. Time to ask.
3. Washington Huskies
Last week's ranking: 5th
SP+ and FPI rankings: fourth and 10th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 24%
What they did in Week 7: defeated No. 8 Oregon 36-33
Next big test: Week 10 at USC
Midseason MVP: QB Michael Penix Jr. The bursts are mind-blowing. Against Oregon on Saturday, Penix began the game just 1-for-4 for 2 yards, then went 10-for-12 for 167 yards and two touchdowns as the Huskies took a 22-15 lead. After a stuttering end to the first half and an up-and-down second, Washington got the ball one last time to try to win the game, and Penix drove the Huskies 53 yards in two plays for the game-winning points.
Penix is the Heisman front-runner for a reason, his receiving corps is outstanding even when it's not at full strength (star slot man Jalen McMillan has been banged up), and if the Huskies keep winning, he'll have a shot at 5,000 yards, 50 touchdowns and, most importantly, a College Football Playoff appearance.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: edge rusher Bralen Trice. The Huskies' defense is a solid bend-don't-break unit -- 60th in success rate and 94th in three-and-out rate but 12th in marginal explosiveness*. It ranks just 52nd in points allowed per drive but stopped three fourth-down attempts and allowed only two scores in Oregon's last seven drives.
It's working for the Huskies, but a little bit of disruption would work even better -- ranking 131st in sack rate is a bit too much bending -- and Trice, seen as a borderline first-rounder, might have another level to his game.
* Marginal explosiveness: my measure of the magnitude of a team's successful plays, adjusted for down, distance and field position.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Last week's ranking: 3rd
SP+ and FPI rankings: second and first
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 13%
What they did in Week 7: defeated Purdue 41-7
Next big test: Week 8 vs. Penn State
Midseason MVP: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. He has topped 100 yards in nine of his past 14 games. He averages 23.1 yards per catch on third downs. Ohio State's run game has been banged up and scattershot, and battery mate Emeka Egbuka is battling an injury as well, but in Harrison, quarterback Kyle McCord has the most go-to of go-to receiving options.
This still isn't the Ohio State offense we're used to -- one that averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of 3.8 over the previous six seasons -- but the defense is more effective than any the Buckeyes have had in a while, and Harrison assures some semblance of elite offensive play. It has felt like Ohio State hasn't quite had everything clicking of late, but the Buckeyes have still overachieved against SP+ projections for four straight games. Doing so for a fifth game in a row would mean a semi-comfortable win over Penn State.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: [Insert running back here]. TreVeyon Henderson has missed two straight games. Miyan Williams missed the Purdue game, and Chip Trayanum, the No. 3 back, left the game with injury. Sophomore Dallan Hayden, who was supposed to redshirt this season, took 11 carries. Even when everyone was healthy, this was a surprisingly inconsistent run game -- the Buckeyes are currently 59th in rushing success rate and 77th in rushing marginal explosiveness -- and at some point that might backfire on them. You probably don't want to find yourself behind schedule too much against Penn State's or Michigan's pass rush, no matter how much your own defense has improved.
1. Michigan Wolverines
Last week's ranking: 1st
SP+ and FPI rankings: first and fourth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 20%
What they did in Week 7: defeated Indiana 52-7
Next big test: Week 11 at Penn State
Midseason MVP: edge rusher Jaylen Harrell. Heading into the season, I had two main questions about Michigan's capabilities: Could the receiving corps deliver at a more consistently high level? And could the pass rush thrive despite another round of turnover on the edge? Granted, we've learned only so much about the Wolverines with a schedule that has yet to feature an SP+ top 50 opponent (and won't until Nov. 11). But receivers Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson and tight end Colston Loveland are averaging nine catches and 148 yards per game between them, and the pass rush has been stellar: 18th in pressure rate, 16th in sacks per dropback. Harrell leads the way in both sacks (3.5) and pressures (10).
That has made the defense almost weakness-free, and the Wolverines currently rank first in points allowed per drive, second in success rate allowed, first in red zone touchdown rate allowed and ... well ... I can't tell you how they have fared in goal-to-go situations because they haven't faced one yet. The Michigan defense might have even more upside than the Washington offense.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: WR Roman Wilson. Granted, it might not happen until mid-November or later, but there will come a time when J.J. McCarthy absolutely has to complete a pass. Wilson might be on the receiving end of that pass, and considering he has caught eight balls for 228 yards and two touchdowns in four combined CFP and Big Ten championship games, he might make a huge play out of it. But this is about the closest thing Michigan has to a question mark, and Wilson, Johnson and Loveland will have to keep producing when asked.