When the College Football Playoff selection committee meets for the first time on Halloween, it will consider a plethora of factors as it sorts out the first of six rankings, but résumé and eye test typically loom large in the room.
Don't tell Michigan it hasn't played anyone yet -- it is too busy taking care of business.
"We're in the ass kicking business," linebacker Michael Barrett said, "and business is booming."
While undefeated Michigan has made a case for the most complete team in the country, the Big Ten remains a mystery with its most critical games looming. The deep Pac-12, meanwhile, has used the first half of the season to provide quite an encore in its final season of existence -- at least as we know it. The Big 12 has quickly boiled down to Oklahoma and Texas, while the SEC has a familiar feel with Georgia and Alabama leading the way in their respective divisions. The ACC is still somewhat surprising as it has two undefeated teams remaining -- none of which is named Clemson.
Including conference championship weekend, there are 14 Saturdays for teams to impress the selection committee, and the sport has officially reached its halfway point. While the heart of conference play remains, there have been plenty of lessons learned, statement games won and some sense of a playoff pecking order established.
Here's a look back at how the past seven weeks have shaped the playoff race, and the most pressing storylines and games to watch moving forward as teams continue to jockey for position when it matters the most:
Jump to a topic:
Lessons learned | Games to watch
Results that resonate | Questions
Movers | Conference rank
Surprises | Disappointments
Impact players | Top 4
Four lessons learned
Oregon misses a game-tying field goal attempt to seal the 36-33 victory for Washington.
Washington has taken the early lead as the Pac-12's top contender: In a thriller that came down to the wire, Washington's win against Oregon on Saturday elevated the Huskies to the top of the Pac-12 pecking order. After playing one of the nation's weakest schedules to start, Washington earned a statement win against a top-10 team that should continue to impress the selection committee. Oregon can still finish in the top four as a one-loss conference champion, but it's under significant pressure to win out.
The Big 12 is banking on its SEC-bound teams: In their final season as members of the Big 12, Oklahoma and Texas have separated themselves as the league's best and only contenders for the CFP. Oklahoma's win against Texas -- and the Longhorns' win at Alabama -- remain two of the best wins in the country. At the midpoint of the season, they are likely the league's only ranked teams after Kansas lost to Oklahoma State.
Georgia is still the SEC's gold standard: It's far too early to determine if Georgia can three-peat, but the Bulldogs are the SEC's only remaining undefeated team. Even Georgia has looked vulnerable in its wins, but the two-time defending national champs silenced some critics with a strong performance in their Week 6 win against Kentucky. Alabama's lone loss was at home in Week 2 to Texas, and while the Tide has reasserted itself at the top of the SEC West, it hasn't looked as good offensively as consistently as Georgia -- at least to this point.
Florida State is living up to the preseason hype while Clemson is not: Heading into this season, the narrative focused on the two former Atlantic Division heavyweights, and while FSU is still undefeated and the ACC's highest-ranked team, Clemson was out of the CFP race before it even really started. The Tigers opened the season with a stunning loss at Duke and suffered their second loss at home to FSU before the end of September. Historically, Clemson has been the ACC's most frequent representative in the CFP, but midway through this season, the Tigers have been displaced at the top.
Four remaining games that will change Selection Day
Ranked in order of impact:
Oct. 21: Penn State at Ohio State: Next week we get the Big Ten's first impactful playoff game, and it will determine how seriously to take the Nittany Lions in both the conference and CFP race. It's also the only opportunity PSU will have to defeat a ranked opponent on the road before the selection committee releases its first ranking.
Nov. 11: Michigan at Penn State: Regardless of what happens to the Nittany Lions in Columbus, they will have another opportunity to shake up the CFP and Big Ten East at home against Michigan. Coach James Franklin has never defeated both Ohio State and Michigan in the same season, but if he can upend one of them, it can cause some havoc with the potential for a three-way tie.
Nov. 25: Ohio State at Michigan: Yes, this is a Big Ten-heavy list, but both teams were CFP semifinalists last year. Ohio State hasn't lost three straight to Michigan since 1995 to 1997, and this game will take on even greater significance if Ohio State loses at home to Penn State.
Nov. 11: USC at Oregon: If they can both go undefeated the rest of the way heading into this game, it will likely be a CFP elimination game, as one of them will have a second loss. If USC loses this game, but still makes it to the Pac-12 title game (because one loss was a nonconference game at Notre Dame), the mighty Pac-12 could be in serious trouble with a two-loss conference champ.
Four results that will influence the selection committee
Ranked in order of impact:
Oct. 7: Oklahoma 34, Texas 30: This one is unique because both teams are on a collision course to meet again in the Big 12 title game. They should each be favored in all of their remaining regular-season games. OU's win over its rival might be the Sooners' only regular-season win against a ranked opponent, which is why even though they won, they still don't have much margin for error. It's not a stretch to say OU might have to finish as an undefeated Big 12 champ to leave no doubt in the committee meeting room it is a top-four team. For Texas, the Longhorns almost certainly have to run the table and finish as a one-loss conference champion. If they do that, the committee will absolutely consider ...
Sept. 9: Texas 34, Alabama 24: If Texas finishes as a one-loss Big 12 champ and the Tide does the same in the SEC, they both make extremely strong cases to finish in the top four. Texas has a head-to-head tiebreaker with Alabama, but the win will resonate with the committee on Selection Day no matter who they are being compared to. If Texas was able to say it beat the SEC champs AND claim the Big 12 title, while avenging its regular-season loss to rival Oklahoma? Count 'em in.
Sept. 3: Florida State 45, LSU 24: This comes with the caveat that both teams continue winning. If FSU finishes as a one-loss ACC champion, the Noles' win in Orlando could be critical in helping push FSU past another contender with a similar record and a worse résumé. For example, what if Michigan also finishes with one loss ... but doesn't win the Big Ten East? FSU's win against LSU is the kind of nonconference win that could sway the committee in favor of the Noles -- plus their league title would be another tiebreaker in their favor in that scenario.
Sept. 23: Ohio State 17, Notre Dame 14: With Notre Dame's win against USC on Saturday, the selection committee will continue to view the two-loss Irish as a respectable Top 25 opponent. That means they will value Ohio State's road win against the Irish when they compare the Buckeyes to other contenders with similar records but weaker nonconference schedules. This could wind up helping Ohio State like it did last year, when the Buckeyes beat Penn State and Notre Dame but lost to Michigan and didn't play for the Big Ten title.
Four questions for the selection committee
Does Oklahoma have to finish the season undefeated? The selection committee considers how many CFP Top 25 opponents a team has defeated, and so far, Texas is the only Associated Press Top 25 team the Sooners have faced. What matters on Selection Day is what Big 12 teams the committee has ranked. What if the Sooners stumble, though, at Kansas? Or in the final episode of Bedlam as Big 12 rivals? Or at BYU on Nov. 18? If Oklahoma loses a game but still finishes as Big 12 champ with another win over Texas, will its résumé be enough to unseat another Power 5 conference champion in the top four? One loss could raise doubt in the room, depending on what happens in the other leagues.
Can Georgia finish in the top four without winning the SEC? If Georgia suffers what would be a shocking loss to Florida on Oct. 28 or at Tennessee on Nov. 18 and doesn't win the East (with one loss each, the Vols would win the East with the head-to-head tiebreaker), have the Bulldogs done enough to impress the committee? It depends on who else the committee has ranked ... Ole Miss? Kentucky? Mizzou? It would be much more difficult for Georgia to impress the committee if it didn't win its division than it would if the Bulldogs came up short in a close SEC championship game.
Can the Big Ten get two teams in? Unless the league follows the exact blueprint as last year, it seems unlikely because of the three contenders (Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State), only the Buckeyes played a tough nonconference opponent on the road (Notre Dame). If a team doesn't win its conference title, the committee must have no doubt that it is still "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country. Would Michigan be able to prove that by beating only one ranked opponent during the regular season? With four straight September home games and no Power 5 nonconference opponent? Would Penn State be able to make that claim with nonconference wins against West Virginia, Delaware and UMass? Ohio State was able to sneak in last year because: USC lost; it beat Penn State; and its win against Notre Dame continued to matter because the Irish remained a strong CFP top 25 team.
Will USC's defense keep it out of the top four? The defense is only part of USC's problem at this point after a blowout loss to Notre Dame. The Trojans don't look like a team that can run the table against a rugged Pac-12 schedule. USC likely needs to run the table and win the Pac-12 in order to garner serious consideration, and even that might not be enough. Missed tackles remain a theme, and if you're seeing it, committee members are, too. Entering Week 7, the Trojans ranked No. 130 in the FBS in total missed tackles with 75, and No. 133 with 43 tackles broken. That didn't keep USC out of the top four last year, though -- losing to Utah in the Pac-12 title game did. While the committee was impressed enough with Caleb Williams and the high-scoring offense to rank the Trojans No. 4, ultimately USC's porous defense allowed Utah a total of 90 points last year in two losses.
Four teams that can make a move in the second half of the season
Penn State: The Nittany Lions are a combined 4-14 (.222) against Michigan and Ohio State under Franklin, compared to 45-16 (.738) against the rest of the Big Ten. The second half of the season will reveal if the Nittany Lions are ready to change the narrative and elevate from top 10 to top four.
Alabama: The Tide continues to find ways to win, but it starts the second half of the season against three straight opponents with winning records -- Tennessee, LSU and Kentucky. With home-field advantage against the Vols and Tigers, though, the lineup is also an opportunity for the Tide to move up when it matters the most.
Tennessee: The Vols have one of the best chances to impress the selection committee in the second half of the season, with games against both Alabama and Georgia. If Tennessee can beat them both, it will win the East and knock Georgia out of the picture.
North Carolina: The undefeated Tar Heels have a chance to run the table and might have to, as Duke could be the only ranked opponent they defeat during the regular season. (Saturday's win against Miami will likely knock the Canes out) If UNC finishes as an undefeated ACC champ with a win against FSU in the title game, it's hard to imagine the committee leaving them out. One stumble, though, and it's up for debate.
Conference playoff pecking order
Pac-12: This is the deepest conference, with undefeated Washington leading the way, and one-loss Utah, USC, Oregon and Oregon State still in the mix. As long as the selection committee continues to have five or six Pac-12 teams ranked, a one-loss conference champion appears to have a strong chance at the top four. USC's loss to Notre Dame didn't help the league on Saturday night, though, and Arizona's convincing win over Washington State eliminated the Cougars from the fringe discussion.
Big Ten: This is a three-way undefeated race between Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State -- currently in that order. They all play each other for the Big Ten East title, so this will play itself out starting on Saturday in Columbus.
SEC: Alabama and Georgia have reasserted themselves at the top of their respective divisions and are again on a collision course for the SEC championship game. Without Tennessee and LSU truly in the mix, though, the conference isn't as deep as is it has been in years past and should have a more difficult time justifying two teams in the top four on Selection Day.
ACC: Florida State has the most legitimate CFP hopes because of its nonconference win against LSU in Orlando, a road win at Clemson and arguably the most talented roster in the league. Undefeated North Carolina can play its way into the conversation as an ACC champ, depending on what happens in the other Power 5 conference races.
Big 12: Oklahoma emerged as the league's top playoff contender following its Red River Rivalry win over Texas, but they're both likely to meet again in the Big 12 title game with the winner having a strong chance at finishing in the top four. The problem is the weakness of the rest of the league, which could impact their playoff résumés. Of the new teams added this year (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF), only BYU (4-1) is above .500.
Four CFP surprises
Oklahoma's improved defense: Last year through six games, the Sooners were 3-3 and allowing 29 points per game and had six takeaways. This year, they're undefeated and holding opponents to 14 points per game with 21 takeaways. It's a dramatic turnaround that has helped push OU into the playoff conversation.
A much deeper, more inclusive field: Entering Week 7, there were 10 teams with at least a 20% chance to make the playoff, including at least one team from each Power 5 conference. There were two from the Big 12 (OU and Texas), two from the SEC (Georgia and Alabama), three from the Big Ten (Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State), three from the Pac-12 (Washington, Oregon and USC) and one from the ACC (Florida State). Last year at the same time there were six, and half of them -- Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee -- were from the SEC.
The ACC still has two undefeated teams. And the SEC has one (Georgia). The Big Ten is the only Power 5 conference will three undefeated teams remaining (Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State), but they all play each other. In the ACC, Florida State and North Carolina do NOT play each other, leaving open possibility they stay undefeated and face each other for the ACC title.
USC might be the third-best team in the Pac-12. For all of the hype surrounding the Trojans and Caleb Williams this summer, reality has revealed that Washington and Oregon are the Pac-12's most complete teams and most legitimate CFP contenders. It wasn't just that USC lost to Notre Dame on Saturday, it was how thoroughly dominating the Irish were against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, who threw three interceptions in a game for the first time in his career.
Four CFP disappointments
A weaker SEC: It's still Alabama and Georgia at the top of their respective divisions, but that's as deep as it goes, and the Tide is a shadow of Nick Saban's top title teams. In the win at Texas A&M, Jalen Milroe was sacked six times, Alabama committed 14 penalties (including nine false starts) and had two turnovers. At this time last year, Georgia and Alabama were both top-four teams, and Tennessee and Ole Miss joined them in the top 15. Heading into Week 7, No. 11 Alabama was the SEC's next highest-ranked team after No. 1 Georgia.
Notre Dame's elimination by mid-October. It's not like the Irish were a preseason top-four pick, but for the second straight season under Marcus Freeman, an unexpected loss knocked them out of the conversation weeks before the first ranking was even revealed. Last year it was an 0-2 start after losses to Ohio State and Marshall. This year the Oct. 7 loss at Louisville was the dagger. Even though the Irish are out of the CFP race, Ohio State still needs the Irish to finish strong in order for its win against Notre Dame to continue to impress the selection committee. Notre Dame did that on Saturday against USC.
Clemson's still-sputtering offense: The hire of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley from TCU and promotion of Cade Klubnik to starting quarterback has not changed a struggling offense. The concerns were obvious in the 28-7 season-opening loss to Duke, and the Tigers have failed to generate any real productivity against elite competition. They lost the only game they've played against a ranked opponent (Sept. 23 vs. Florida State). The Tigers are No. 69 in the FBS with 5.74 yards per play and No. 94 with 6.38 net yards per pass attempt. They rank No. 111 with only one play over 50 yards and No. 119 with the percentage of successful plays over 20 yards (4.6%).
Ohio State's red zone offense and big-play capabilities: This is a group that boasts what could be the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft in receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and possibly another top 15 pick in receiver Emeka Egbuka. It has a deep and talented running backs room led by TreVeyon Henderson, Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams. And yet ... Ohio State woefully trails Penn State (No. 13) and Michigan (No. 15) in its red zone efficiency (No. 104). The Buckeyes have scored touchdowns on 52.9% of their red zone drives. Ohio State has also lacked its trademark potency, ranking No. 110 in explosive plays (rushes of at least 10 yards and completions of at least 20 yards).
Four players who have impacted the CFP race
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel: The lefty lifted the Sooners above their rivals in an instant classic, completing 23 of 38 passes for 285 yards and a touchdown -- and ran 14 times for 113 yards and another score. Beating Texas was a critical win because it could be the Sooners' only chance to impress the selection committee with a regular-season win against a ranked opponent. It also pushed the Sooners closer to an appearance in the Big 12 title game.
Ohio State running back Chip Trayanum: Who?! The player whose perfect plunge into the end zone on third-and-goal with one second left allowed the Buckeyes to walk out of Notre Dame Stadium with a win. It was a critical nonconference road win that still has the potential to boost the Buckeyes into the top four even if they don't win their division -- again.
Georgia TE Brock Bowers: In a narrow 27-20 win at Auburn, Bowers was clutch, catching a 40-yard touchdown pass late in the game and finishing with four catches for 121 yards -- all in the fourth quarter. Had Georgia lost to unranked Auburn -- its only road trip through the first six games -- its playoff hopes would be in jeopardy.
Alabama WR Jermaine Burton: Had Alabama not defeated Texas A&M in Week 6, the Tide would have had two losses and likely played itself out of the CFP in early October. Burton, though, was critical to keeping Bama's CFP hopes alive when he caught two touchdown passes and nine catches for 197 yards against the Aggies.
My top four teams as of today
1. Georgia
2. Washington
3. Florida State
4. Oklahoma