We haven't had a messy College Football Playoff selection in quite a while. The 2016 season gave us the awkwardness of a one-loss Ohio State team getting in over a Penn State team that had beaten the Buckeyes and won the Big Ten (but had two losses). In 2018, a case could have been made for a one-loss Ohio State over one-loss Oklahoma, but the Buckeyes had suffered a nasty blowout loss to Purdue, and the pollsters agreed with the Sooners' selection.
Aside from perhaps the 2020 season, for which everything was messy, things have been pretty clean and easy for the CFP committee when it comes to picking four teams after Championship Week. And if chalk holds over this coming weekend, that should remain the case.
We're just an upset or two away from a mess, however. And in a very college football-ish way, that mess would favor blue bloods.
Each week during this season's stretch run, I have laid out what the playoff rankings would look like using a BCS-like formula -- two-thirds derived from poll averages (the AP and coaches polls) and one-third from computer averages (FPI and SP+ to simulate "best," strength of record and résumé SP+ to simulate "most deserving"). While this wasn't the original intent, it has turned out to match the committee's own thinking pretty well. So let's see what it has to say before the season's penultimate playoff rankings are released Tuesday night.
Week 13 recap
Two weeks ago, The Formula and the committee agreed on every single one of the top 14 teams. Last week, the committee went rogue a bit, bumping both LSU and Clemson higher than what The Formula would have prescribed.
The Formula, last week:
Both LSU and Clemson suffered Rivalry Week upsets (LSU falling to Texas A&M, Clemson to South Carolina) and were eliminated from CFP contention. Ohio State's playoff plans also took a hit, not just from its loss to No. 3 Michigan but from the way it got blown out by the Wolverines. How much will those losses impact the playoff rankings? Does USC move up to No. 4 as it did in both of this week's polls?
What does The Formula say this week?
As always, let's begin with my résumé rankings. While my SP+ ratings, like ESPN's Football Power Index, are designed to be predictive and forward-facing, I created what I call "résumé SP+" in an attempt to look backward at how a team has played against its opponents.
Résumé SP+ is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top-five team would be projected to perform against a given team's schedule -- in terms of scoring margin (which I cap at 50 points) instead of straight wins and losses -- and (2) how the team's scoring margin compares to that projection. Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered (because losses matter on the résumé!), and we have what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ and only SP+ were in charge.
Here is this week's muddy résumé SP+ top 15:
1. Georgia (12-0)
2. Michigan (12-0): 5.1 points behind
3. Ohio State (11-1): 10.2 points behind
4. TCU (12-0): 10.6 points behind
5. Tennessee (10-2): 18.1 points behind
6. Alabama (10-2): 18.8 points behind
7. USC (11-1): 21.7 points behind
8. Penn State (10-2): 24.3 points behind
9. Kansas State (9-3): 30.5 points behind
10. Tulane (10-2): 31.7 points behind
11. Clemson (10-2): 32.0 points behind
12. Washington (10-2): 33.2 points behind
13. Utah (9-3): 33.6 points behind
14. LSU (9-3): 34.2 points behind
15. Florida State (9-3): 34.8 points behind
Needless to say, that's not how the CFP rankings will look. TCU will rank ahead of Ohio State on Tuesday night, and at the very least USC will rank ahead of two-loss SEC teams Tennessee and Alabama. But résumé SP+ gives us an interesting reminder that, really, only two teams have dominated like a top-five team should this season.
Georgia and Michigan are almost certainly assured playoff bids at this point unless one of them not only loses as a heavy favorite Saturday -- Georgia is currently a 17-point favorite over LSU in the SEC championship game, Michigan a 16-point favorite over Purdue in the Big Ten game (a line that should probably be closer to 20 or so) -- but loses badly.
Until Saturday, Ohio State had held up its end of the dominance bargain, winning all 11 games by double digits and seven by at least 29 points, but the pollsters punished the Buckeyes severely for their 45-23 loss to Michigan, and the committee could too.
TCU scored quite a few style points in Saturday's 62-14 blowout of Iowa State but evidently still has some ground to make up. Out west, USC's lackluster defense and mediocre schedule -- per SP+, its strength of schedule currently ranks 53rd*, and it has beaten only two top-30 teams (by a combined six points) -- have potentially left the Trojans with some work to do. The simple act of going 12-1 and winning a conference title would probably get them in at this point, but they have no margin for error.
* Here's where the other primary playoff contenders rank in SP+ strength of schedule: Tennessee eighth, Alabama 22nd, TCU 36th, Georgia 37th, Ohio State 39th, Michigan 40th. USC's schedule is the worst of the bunch but isn't terribly far behind those of the other zero- or one-loss teams.
What happens when we combine the résumé and power ratings with the poll averages?
The Formula, this week:
Falling out of the top 25: Ole Miss (from 19th to 26th), Cincinnati (from 21st to 27th), Coastal Carolina (from 24th to 56th!)
Moving in: South Carolina (from 31st to 21st), Mississippi State (from 27th to 23rd), UTSA (from 26th to 25th)
These rankings line up with the poll averages at the top, which one would expect considering poll averages are two-thirds of The Formula. But two things in particular interest me here: distance and drops.
Distance: Because the pollsters so quickly came to a consensus about who should be in the top four (and in which order), a good amount of distance separates the top teams. Michigan is 0.026 points behind Georgia, TCU is 0.036 points behind Michigan, and USC is 0.037 points behind TCU. But Ohio State is only 0.013 points behind USC, the smallest separation you'll find among the top seven teams. That feels noteworthy to me.
Drops: Comparing this week's Formula to last week's, we see that Ohio State's rating dropped by 0.080 points following the loss to Michigan. LSU's fell by 0.167. One of the primary questions emerging from Rivalry Week was whether unbeaten TCU would be safely in the CFP even if it were to lose Saturday to Kansas State. Considering the Horned Frogs lead Ohio State by only 0.050 points overall, per The Formula, that suggests they would fall behind the Buckeyes with a loss. They are 0.077 points ahead of Alabama and could certainly stay ahead of the Tide with a tight loss to No. 11 K-State; that would certainly matter if USC were to also lose this weekend. But I don't think TCU can feel great about getting in with anything other than a perfect record.
This week's most interesting questions
Who's No. 5?
I assume it's Ohio State, but I'm only about 75% certain. The computers still like the Buckeyes a lot more than they like USC, and while the committee proudly refuses to take power rankings into account, it does have access to ESPN's strength of record: Ohio State currently ranks fourth in SOR while USC ranks sixth. The Buckeyes have spent more of 2022 looking like a playoff team than the Trojans have, their one loss was to a better team than USC's one loss, and their 44-31 win at Penn State is far more impressive than any win on USC's résumé.
One of the things the committee is designed to do differently than pollsters is avoid recency bias as much as possible. If Ohio State had lost to Michigan two months ago, and USC had just lost to Utah, I don't think it would be a surprise to see Ohio State rank fourth this week. The Trojans would still have a shot at snaring No. 4 after a revenge win over Utah on Friday, but it wouldn't be a total surprise if the Buckeyes ranked fourth for now.
Does Alabama still have a chance?
As mentioned earlier, if chalk holds, this could end up a pretty easy CFP selection: a 13-0 SEC champion ranking first, a 13-0 Big Ten champion ranking second, a 13-0 Big 12 champion ranking third and a 12-1 Pac-12 champion holding off an 11-1 Big Ten East runner-up for fourth. Four teams with only three combined all-time CFP appearances! Some new-ish blood (even though two of the four teams were in it last year too)!
Considering how tight the Big 12 and Pac-12 championship games could be, however, chalk's odds aren't great.
Per SP+, TCU has only a 57% chance of beating Kansas State on Saturday, while USC has only a 49% chance of beating Utah on Friday night. (If you prefer FPI, it has TCU at 54% and USC at 39%.) The sportsbooks favor both the Horned Frogs and Trojans by two to three points, but these are relative toss-ups regardless. Going by SP+ odds, there's only a 28% chance that both TCU and USC will win.
Let's take a moment to envision what each combination of Big 12/Pac-12 results would do for the CFP race.
TCU and USC both win (28% chance): We can fairly assume that both the Horned Frogs and Trojans will get in with this scenario. Even on the off chance that Ohio State ranks fourth this week, a win over Utah would certainly boost USC's résumé.
Only TCU wins (29% chance): USC clearly has to win to get in, so in theory a TCU win and USC loss would result in a clear picture, too -- TCU is in, as is Ohio State, which will almost certainly rank above Alabama on Tuesday night.
Only USC wins (21% chance): Here's where things might start to get blurry. USC would be in with a win, but the committee would have to decide between a 12-1 TCU and 11-1 Ohio State for the final spot. As suggested above, I'm guessing TCU ends up left out, but if the Frogs lose by one point in a thriller, that might not be the case.
TCU and USC both lose (22% chance): If TCU loses by a healthy amount -- if Kansas State pulls a 2003, in other words -- things could get very messy. Obviously, this week's No. 5 team would get in without question, but the committee would be left to choose between a one-loss TCU and whichever team ranks sixth this week. That probably will be Alabama.
That's right, Bama might not be entirely dead just yet. I'll pause for a second while you roll your eyes. Bama, Bama, Bama. It's always Bama.
I figure TCU would have to lose pretty badly to K-State to open the door, but considering the Wildcats' past four wins have come by 48, 28, 17 and 20 points, it wouldn't be out of the question; KSU is a very good football team. And if the Wildcats indeed knock TCU around, Alabama has some things going for it.
• The Tide still rank fourth in SP+ and second in FPI. They still bring loads of raw quality to the table. They have clearly been sloppier than usual this year, but that says more about what we expect from them than it does about their actual level of play this season.
• While Ohio State, Tennessee and Penn State have all suffered blowout losses this season, Bama has lost by a combined four points on the road to teams that will rank somewhere around seventh and 13th on Tuesday night. One could make a case that the Tide's two losses are more forgivable (in a CFP sense) than Ohio State's one.
• Per SP+, only Tennessee has faced a tougher schedule among this week's likely CFP top 10. The committee has rewarded quality schedules in the past.
With Ole Miss collapsing and potentially falling out of the rankings, Bama might have only one ranked win. That alone could blow the Tide's chances. Plus, it would probably be good for the sport as a whole to include some fresh faces in the playoff (a one-loss TCU, in this instance) rather than a two-loss Bama. But the Tide would still be under heavy consideration.
Based on the odds above, then -- and assuming that Georgia and Michigan are both in regardless of Saturday's results -- here's how I would handicap the teams in contention for the last two CFP spots: TCU 75%, Ohio State 65%, USC 50%, Bama 10%.
We tend to root for chaos in college football, but if you're a fan of CFP variety, chaos is the very last thing you want from Championship Week.