College football SP+ rankings after Week 13

Bill ConnellyNov 27, 2022, 11:00 AM ET
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We didn't know all of college football's 2022 conference championship game pairings until late into Saturday night, but now the table is set. We know who's playing for conference titles, and we know the CFP pecking order (the top four, at least). Now we just have to find out who wins.

SP+ can help with that. Here are this week's SP+ rankings.

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

SP+ Week 14 rankings

Team	Rating	Offense	Defense	Spec Tms
1. Georgia (12-0)	35.3	37.2 (26)	3.7 (1)	1.7 (3)
2. Michigan (12-0)	32.0	38.0 (21)	7.6 (4)	1.6 (10)
3. Ohio St. (11-1)	31.1	45.1 (4)	15.7 (16)	1.7 (6)
4. Alabama (10-2)	30.3	42.9 (8)	14.2 (12)	1.6 (12)
5. Tennessee (10-2)	25.2	47.3 (1)	22.6 (40)	0.4 (53)
6. TCU (12-0)	24.3	43.3 (7)	20.2 (31)	1.2 (23)
7. Texas (8-4)	23.1	38.1 (20)	15.6 (14)	0.7 (40)
8. Penn St. (10-2)	22.4	36.6 (28)	13.9 (11)	-0.3 (72)
9. Kansas St. (9-3)	21.4	36.4 (29)	15.7 (15)	0.6 (43)
10. Utah (9-3)	19.2	37.3 (25)	17.3 (21)	-0.8 (94)
11. USC (11-1)	18.9	46.6 (2)	26.3 (63)	-1.4 (117)
12. Oregon (9-3)	18.9	44.9 (5)	26.5 (66)	0.5 (49)
13. Clemson (10-2)	17.6	34.9 (33)	18.5 (26)	1.2 (22)
14. Ole Miss (8-4)	16.2	38.8 (17)	23.7 (44)	1.1 (32)
15. LSU (9-3)	16.2	34.2 (37)	17.6 (23)	-0.5 (82)
16. Minnesota (8-4)	16.0	23.5 (90)	8.6 (5)	1.1 (27)
17. Illinois (8-4)	15.9	20.6 (98)	5.5 (3)	0.8 (37)
18. Washington (10-2)	15.7	41.2 (12)	25.5 (57)	0.0 (65)
19. Oklahoma (6-6)	15.4	40.8 (13)	26.5 (65)	1.0 (33)
20. Miss. St. (8-4)	15.4	35.1 (32)	19.9 (30)	0.2 (61)
21. UCLA (9-3)	15.0	45.7 (3)	30.1 (83)	-0.7 (87)
22. Oregon St. (9-3)	14.3	33.3 (41)	17.7 (24)	-1.3 (115)
23. Florida St. (9-3)	13.2	34.8 (34)	20.4 (34)	-1.3 (113)
24. Cincinnati (9-3)	13.1	27.6 (62)	16.1 (17)	1.5 (13)
25. Kentucky (7-5)	13.0	23.2 (92)	9.9 (6)	-0.3 (71)
26. S. Carolina (8-4)	12.7	36.0 (31)	25.2 (53)	1.8 (1)
27. Iowa (7-5)	12.7	16.0 (117)	5.1 (2)	1.7 (5)
28. Tulane (10-2)	12.4	32.0 (47)	19.7 (29)	0.1 (62)
29. Arkansas (6-6)	12.0	38.3 (19)	26.3 (64)	0.0 (66)
30. Baylor (6-6)	11.7	37.6 (23)	26.1 (61)	0.2 (59)
31. Oklahoma St. (7-5)	11.3	37.6 (24)	27.9 (70)	1.6 (11)
32. Maryland (7-5)	11.2	33.8 (39)	24.2 (45)	1.7 (7)
33. S. Alabama (10-2)	10.8	26.8 (66)	17.4 (22)	1.4 (18)
34. Florida (6-6)	10.4	39.6 (15)	29.5 (78)	0.3 (56)
35. Notre Dame (8-4)	10.3	30.5 (56)	21.4 (36)	1.1 (26)
36. UCF (9-3)	10.3	31.1 (55)	20.3 (32)	-0.6 (86)
37. Wash. St. (7-5)	9.5	25.1 (78)	16.7 (19)	1.1 (28)
38. Texas A&M (5-7)	9.1	25.4 (76)	16.6 (18)	0.3 (55)
39. Louisville (7-5)	9.0	27.0 (65)	19.1 (28)	1.1 (30)
40. Pittsburgh (8-4)	8.6	32.8 (43)	24.7 (50)	0.5 (50)
41. Texas Tech (7-5)	8.5	38.5 (18)	30.5 (87)	0.5 (47)
42. Wisconsin (6-6)	8.3	25.7 (68)	17.1 (20)	-0.4 (79)
43. Wake Forest (7-5)	8.2	43.3 (6)	35.2 (105)	0.0 (64)
44. Troy (10-2)	8.1	17.7 (107)	11.2 (8)	1.5 (15)
45. Missouri (6-6)	8.1	26.0 (67)	18.3 (25)	0.3 (54)
46. N. Carolina (9-3)	7.8	41.7 (11)	35.0 (104)	1.1 (29)
47. Purdue (8-4)	7.7	31.6 (50)	22.4 (39)	-1.5 (121)
48. UTSA (10-2)	7.2	39.3 (16)	32.6 (93)	0.5 (51)
49. Memphis (6-6)	6.8	37.0 (27)	31.8 (89)	1.7 (8)
50. NC St. (8-4)	6.8	20.4 (99)	15.3 (13)	1.6 (9)
51. JMU (8-3)	6.5	31.3 (52)	23.6 (43)	-1.2 (110)
52. Boise St. (9-3)	5.7	24.1 (84)	18.5 (27)	0.1 (63)
53. Iowa St. (4-8)	5.3	17.7 (108)	10.6 (7)	-1.7 (129)
54. Auburn (5-7)	5.1	32.6 (46)	27.9 (71)	0.5 (52)
55. Duke (8-4)	5.0	29.4 (61)	24.7 (49)	0.3 (57)
56. SMU (7-5)	4.7	42.0 (10)	38.1 (115)	0.9 (34)
57. Houston (7-5)	4.5	42.5 (9)	37.7 (112)	-0.3 (73)
58. Air Force (9-3)	3.9	16.3 (114)	12.3 (10)	-0.1 (67)
59. Fresno St. (8-4)	3.3	27.1 (64)	24.4 (47)	0.6 (45)
60. Marshall (8-4)	3.0	15.7 (121)	11.4 (9)	-1.3 (114)
61. Kansas (6-6)	2.9	40.6 (14)	36.0 (108)	-1.7 (128)
62. Syracuse (7-5)	2.5	27.4 (63)	24.7 (51)	-0.1 (68)
63. W. Virginia (5-7)	2.4	36.3 (30)	34.5 (101)	0.6 (44)
64. Louisiana (6-6)	2.0	21.7 (95)	20.3 (33)	0.7 (41)
65. WKU (8-5)	1.7	31.3 (54)	30.1 (84)	0.5 (46)
66. App. St. (6-6)	1.7	32.9 (42)	29.8 (82)	-1.4 (116)
67. Michigan St. (5-7)	1.2	31.9 (48)	29.7 (81)	-1.0 (102)
68. ECU (7-5)	1.1	31.5 (51)	28.7 (74)	-1.7 (127)
69. Coastal Caro. (9-2)	0.6	32.7 (45)	30.6 (88)	-1.5 (123)
70. UAB (6-6)	-0.5	25.7 (70)	25.3 (54)	-0.9 (96)
71. Nebraska (4-8)	-1.2	25.5 (74)	25.6 (58)	-1.2 (108)
72. BYU (7-5)	-1.4	34.3 (36)	34.8 (102)	-0.8 (93)
73. N. Texas (7-5)	-1.5	31.3 (53)	34.1 (99)	1.3 (20)
74. Liberty (8-4)	-1.5	24.1 (83)	25.4 (56)	-0.2 (70)
75. Army (5-6)	-1.5	24.6 (80)	25.3 (55)	-0.9 (95)
76. Miami (5-7)	-2.7	24.4 (82)	28.9 (75)	1.7 (4)
77. California (4-8)	-3.0	23.2 (91)	25.9 (59)	-0.3 (76)
78. Arizona (5-7)	-3.2	37.6 (22)	41.1 (126)	0.2 (58)
79. Georgia St. (4-8)	-3.3	33.7 (40)	38.3 (116)	1.4 (17)
80. So. Miss (6-6)	-3.5	18.3 (105)	22.9 (42)	1.1 (25)
81. Toledo (7-5)	-3.7	25.7 (69)	27.9 (68)	-1.5 (124)
82. Arizona St. (3-9)	-4.1	30.5 (57)	35.7 (107)	1.1 (31)
83. San Jose St. (7-4)	-4.3	19.1 (101)	21.6 (37)	-1.8 (131)
84. San Diego St. (7-5)	-4.4	15.1 (122)	21.1 (35)	1.5 (14)
85. Ohio (9-3)	-4.6	31.6 (49)	35.2 (106)	-1.0 (100)
86. Vanderbilt (5-7)	-4.7	29.9 (59)	33.4 (96)	-1.2 (109)
87. Tulsa (5-7)	-6.1	32.7 (44)	38.5 (117)	-0.3 (75)
88. Ga. Southern (6-6)	-6.4	34.3 (35)	40.3 (124)	-0.4 (80)
89. MTSU (7-5)	-6.9	25.6 (71)	33.3 (95)	0.8 (35)
90. Indiana (4-8)	-7.1	29.9 (58)	36.6 (110)	-0.4 (78)
91. EMU (8-4)	-7.1	24.0 (85)	32.4 (92)	1.3 (21)
92. FAU (5-7)	-7.1	24.4 (81)	30.4 (86)	-1.1 (104)
93. Stanford (3-9)	-7.2	25.6 (73)	34.2 (100)	1.5 (16)
94. Navy (4-7)	-7.2	18.2 (106)	24.4 (46)	-1.1 (103)
95. Virginia (3-7)	-9.0	16.2 (116)	24.4 (48)	-0.7 (88)
96. Rutgers (4-8)	-9.1	16.4 (113)	25.2 (52)	-0.3 (77)
97. Buffalo (5-6)	-9.2	25.0 (79)	35.0 (103)	0.8 (36)
98. Va. Tech (3-8)	-9.5	13.5 (125)	22.8 (41)	-0.3 (74)
99. UTEP (5-7)	-10.7	20.8 (96)	32.7 (94)	1.2 (24)
100. Wyoming (7-5)	-10.8	14.9 (123)	26.2 (62)	0.5 (48)
101. Texas St. (4-8)	-11.5	17.4 (109)	29.5 (79)	0.7 (42)
102. Ga. Tech (5-7)	-11.8	18.8 (103)	29.5 (80)	-1.1 (106)
103. UNLV (5-7)	-11.9	20.8 (97)	34.1 (98)	1.3 (19)
104. Miami-OH (6-6)	-12.7	8.6 (128)	22.1 (38)	0.7 (38)
105. Temple (3-9)	-12.9	16.3 (115)	28.6 (73)	-0.5 (83)
106. ODU (3-9)	-13.0	16.9 (111)	29.3 (77)	-0.6 (85)
107. Arkansas St. (3-9)	-13.0	23.7 (89)	38.5 (120)	1.8 (2)
108. Kent St. (5-7)	-13.1	25.6 (72)	37.9 (114)	-0.7 (90)
109. Utah St. (6-6)	-13.3	25.4 (75)	38.5 (118)	-0.2 (69)
110. Northwestern (1-11)	-13.4	17.0 (110)	28.6 (72)	-1.7 (130)
111. CMU (4-8)	-14.0	19.0 (102)	32.2 (91)	-0.8 (92)
112. UConn (6-6)	-14.6	14.2 (124)	27.9 (69)	-0.9 (97)
113. Ball St. (5-7)	-14.9	16.0 (118)	30.1 (85)	-0.7 (89)
114. Boston Coll. (3-9)	-14.9	20.4 (100)	33.8 (97)	-1.5 (122)
115. Rice (5-7)	-15.2	23.1 (94)	36.9 (111)	-1.4 (118)
116. NMSU (5-6)	-15.4	12.0 (126)	26.0 (60)	-1.4 (119)
117. ULM (4-8)	-15.7	23.2 (93)	39.0 (121)	0.2 (60)
118. Charlotte (3-9)	-16.4	24.0 (86)	39.2 (122)	-1.2 (112)
119. USF (1-11)	-17.0	34.1 (38)	50.3 (131)	-0.8 (91)
120. WMU (5-7)	-17.3	11.2 (127)	27.3 (67)	-1.1 (107)
121. La. Tech (3-9)	-17.8	29.6 (60)	47.0 (130)	-0.4 (81)
122. BGSU (6-6)	-18.1	23.8 (88)	40.6 (125)	-1.2 (111)
123. NIU (3-9)	-18.8	25.3 (77)	43.1 (128)	-1.0 (101)
124. Colorado (1-11)	-20.4	24.0 (87)	45.0 (129)	0.7 (39)
125. Colorado St. (3-9)	-22.2	7.8 (129)	29.0 (76)	-1.0 (99)
126. Nevada (2-10)	-22.4	15.9 (119)	37.8 (113)	-0.5 (84)
127. Akron (2-9)	-23.4	16.7 (112)	38.5 (119)	-1.6 (125)
128. Hawaii (3-10)	-24.7	15.8 (120)	39.4 (123)	-1.1 (105)
129. FIU (4-8)	-25.5	18.4 (104)	42.3 (127)	-1.6 (126)
130. New Mexico (2-10)	-26.9	6.0 (131)	31.9 (90)	-1.0 (98)
131. UMass (1-11)	-30.3	7.5 (130)	36.4 (109)	-1.4 (120)

This week's movers

Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

NMSU: up 6.5 adjusted points per game (from 124th to 116th in the rankings)
Army: up 4.6 points (86th to 75th)
Kentucky: up 3.3 points (36th to 25th)
Texas A&M: up 3.2 points (51st to 38th)
BYU: up 3.0 points (81st to 72nd)
UMass: up 2.9 points (131st to 131st)
Purdue: up 2.9 points (55th to 47th)
West Virginia: up 2.8 points (70th to 63rd)
Akron: up 2.8 points (130th to 127th)
TCU: up 2.6 points (seventh to sixth)

Rivalry Week gave us a ton of awesome nail-biters, but maybe the single most shocking result came in Lynchburg, where, amid rumors of Hugh Freeze leaving for Auburn, his Liberty team got its butt kicked in every possible way by a vengeful New Mexico State. The Aggies beat the Flames 49-14 as 24-point underdogs, covering the spread by a cool 59 points. It stands to reason that they would rise significantly in SP+ afterward.

(At 5-6, with a game cancellation earlier in the season, NMSU is attempting to get clearance from the NCAA to schedule FCS's Valparaiso next week to try to reach bowl eligibility for just the second time in 62 years.)

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

Coastal Carolina: down 3.4 adjusted points per game (from 59th to 69th in the rankings)
Toledo: down 2.9 points (73rd to 81st)
Wyoming: down 2.8 points (93rd to 100th)
Ohio State: down 2.6 points (second to third)
NIU: down 2.5 points (117th to 123rd)
CMU: down 2.5 points (104th to 111th)
Louisville: down 2.3 points (31st to39th)
Utah State: down 2.1 points (103rd to 109th)
North Carolina: down 2.1 points (34th to 46th)
Bowling Green: down 2.1 points (116th to 122nd)

Ohio State collapsed in the second half and got run off the field by Michigan for the second straight season, and while the Buckeyes fell to only third in SP+, they were responsible for one of the biggest drops of the week.

Conference rankings

Here are the FBS's 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:

1. SEC: 14.6 average SP+ (34.7 average offensive SP+, 20.6 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 12.6 average SP+ (36.7 offense, 24.4 defense)
3. Big Ten: 9.1 average SP+ (28.0 offense, 19.0 defense)
4. Pac-12: 6.1 average SP+ (34.6 offense, 28.5 defense)
5. ACC: 2.2 average SP+ (27.5 offense, 25.5 defense)
6. AAC: 0.9 average SP+ (31.4 offense, 30.4 defense)
7. Sun Belt: -2.4 average SP+ (24.7 offense, 27.3 defense)
8. Conference USA: -8.4 average SP+ (26.7 offense, 34.9 defense)
9. Mountain West: -10.7 average SP+ (17.4 offense, 27.9 defense)
10. MAC: -13.1 average SP+ (21.1 offense, 33.5 defense)

These ratings have shifted slightly with the smattering of nonconference games from the past couple of weekends -- the SEC eased comfortably ahead of the Big 12 once again -- but let's see what bowl season does to these averages.

And yes, the ACC is nearly as close to the Sun Belt as it is to the Pac-12 and the rest of the power conferences. Just a dreadful season for the conference.

Conference championship game projections

Based on the ratings above, here are the SP+ projections for this coming week's title games.

C-USA: UTSA 39.9, North Texas 28.7 (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Pac-12: Utah 32.0, USC 31.7 (Friday, 8 p.m., Fox)
Big 12: TCU 30.4, Kansas State 27.4 (Saturday, noon, ABC)
MAC: Toledo 30.5, Ohio 29.7 (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
Sun Belt: Troy 28.0, Coastal Carolina 18.0 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
SEC: Georgia 32.7, LSU 13.6 (Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS)
AAC: Tulane 28.1, UCF 23.4 (Saturday, 4 p.m., ABC)
MWC: Boise State 26.0, Fresno State 21.1 (Saturday, 4 p.m., Fox)
Big Ten: Michigan 37.1, Purdue 12.7 (Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox)
ACC: Clemson 37.5, North Carolina 27.6 (Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)

Utah-USC on Friday night could be outstanding (lord knows it was great the first time those teams played), and both of the noon games on Saturday are projected within three points. The rest of the slate? Less exciting from a projections standpoint.