With the regular season officially over and only conference championship games remaining, this could be very easy for the College Football Playoff selection committee -- or extremely controversial.
Here's what is certain: Two-loss Clemson and the ACC are out following the Tigers' home loss to South Carolina. The ACC is guaranteed a champion with at least two losses, as Coastal Division victor North Carolina now has three defeats after falling Friday night to rival NC State. Ohio State's playoff hopes are dire after being thoroughly outplayed by rival Michigan in Columbus. And the only way three-loss LSU makes CFP history now is by becoming the first SEC champion to miss the playoff, should the Tigers miraculously find a way to upset Georgia.
If Georgia, Michigan and TCU all finish as undefeated conference champions, they're in. USC could join them in the fourth spot as soon as Tuesday evening, when the committee reveals its fifth of six rankings.
It's a chalk scenario that would make for a neat and tidy Selection Day; but with the most critical games remaining, there are also plenty of what-ifs that could complicate things:
What if TCU loses a close game to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game?
What if USC loses in the Pac-12 championship game?
What if LSU does win? What happens to Georgia?
Is there any path for Ohio State? Two-loss Alabama?!
Here are seven scenarios, ranked in order of most to least likely to happen, with a prediction of what the committee would do in each situation. For these predictions, the favorites are Georgia, USC, TCU and Michigan.
Scenario 1: All favorites win out
Caleb Williams throws for one touchdown and rushes for three in a impressive performance as USC defeats Notre Dame 38-27.
Locks: Undefeated SEC champion Georgia, undefeated Big Ten champion Michigan, undefeated Big 12 champion TCU
Contenders: One-loss Pac-12 champion USC, one-loss Ohio State
What committee would do: One-loss USC would earn the No. 4 spot because it would have the edge in multiple tiebreakers -- strength of schedule, comparative outcomes against common opponents and championships won -- that the committee uses to separate otherwise comparable teams. The Trojans would have won three straight games against ranked opponents (UCLA, Notre Dame and Utah, their Pac-12 championship game foe), defeated a ranked Oregon State team on the road and punctuated their résumé with the Pac-12 conference title. It would collectively trump Ohio State's wins against Notre Dame and Penn State. USC's only loss was by one point at Utah, another CFP top 25 team, while Ohio State was beaten soundly at home by the committee's No. 3 team. The committee would consider that both USC and Ohio State had a common opponent in Notre Dame, but with similar outcomes, it probably wouldn't change the conversation much.
Scenario 2: All favorites win except TCU
Locks: Georgia, Michigan, USC
Contenders: TCU, Ohio State, Alabama
What committee would do: There would be a "spirited debate" (as it's often described from within the room) for the fourth spot. The committee would focus on one-loss Ohio State and one-loss TCU, but this is where two-loss Alabama could creep back into the conversation. None of these three teams -- TCU, Alabama or Ohio State -- would be conference champions in this scenario. Ohio State's position in Tuesday night's ranking is critical to this answer. Ohio State and Alabama won't play again, so whom the committee thinks is better now probably won't change on Selection Day.
Alabama's best wins are against Ole Miss (8-4), which lost this week to rival Mississippi State, and Texas (8-4). Ohio State's season-opening win against Notre Dame has impressed the selection committee, but it's going to be devalued a little after the Fighting Irish lost at USC on Saturday. Alabama's two defeats were by a combined four points, while Ohio State was beaten soundly by Michigan.
On paper, TCU beats them both -- even without the Big 12 title -- but the Horned Frogs have been in a precarious position all season. TCU currently has four wins against Power 5 opponents over .500. The Frogs and Alabama both triumphed at Texas, with TCU winning 17-10 and Bama prevailing 20-19, but the Crimson Tide faced the Longhorns' backup quarterback for a majority of the game after Quinn Ewers was injured in the first quarter.
This could ultimately turn to a conversation around the table simply asking: Who do you think is better? Who would win if these teams all played each other? This is where Alabama almost always wins -- even when it loses.
Scenario 3: All favorites win except USC
Locks: Georgia, Michigan, TCU
Contenders: Ohio State, Alabama, USC
What committee would do: It might answer this Tuesday night, in the fifth of six rankings, but the early prediction is Ohio State drops to No. 5 ahead of No. 6 Alabama. If one-loss Ohio State drops below two-loss Alabama, though, the Tide's playoff hopes will officially be resurrected. Ohio State has four Power 5 wins against opponents over .500 (No. 15 Notre Dame, Iowa, No. 11 Penn State and Maryland), including two CFP top 25 teams. The Buckeyes' lone loss was also to the selection committee's No. 3 team, while Alabama has two losses by a combined four points to CFP top 25 teams Tennessee and LSU. It didn't help Alabama, though, that LSU suffered an ugly loss on Saturday to Texas A&M. Alabama would be banking on wins against No. 20 Ole Miss and No. 23 Texas, but if the committee simply thinks it looks more like a top-four team -- which is certainly possible after Michigan left Ohio State in the fetal position -- it's at the committee's discretion to deem it one.
Scenario 4: All favorites win except Michigan
Locks: Georgia, TCU, USC
Contenders: Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama
What committee would do: This is lower on the list because Michigan shouldn't lose to Purdue. (But nobody thought SEC West champ LSU would lose to a seven-loss Texas A&M team, either.) Michigan would have the head-to-head win over Ohio State and arguably better wins than two-loss Alabama -- but the worst loss of any of them, to unranked Purdue (8-4). The committee would almost certainly honor the head-to-head victory over Ohio State since it was so convincing and earned the Wolverines the Big Ten's East Division title, boiling the debate down to Michigan and Alabama.
Michigan's wins against No. 2 Ohio State and No. 11 Penn State are more impressive than Alabama's wins against No. 23 Texas and No. 20 Ole Miss, but this is where Michigan's nonconference schedule would again be scrutinized. The entire Big Ten could be left out because Michigan's wins -- against Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn -- came against the second-weakest nonconference lineup in the FBS. Michigan looked so good against Ohio State, though -- better than Alabama's offensive line has played this season -- and did it without injured star running back Blake Corum. Best guess: The committee sticks with Michigan, and that seems even more likely if Ohio State is above Alabama on Tuesday night.
Scenario 5: All favorites win except Georgia
Locks: Michigan, TCU, USC
Contenders: Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama
What committee would do: Georgia would likely still finish in the top four, but it's not a given -- especially now that the Bulldogs would be falling to a three-loss LSU team coming off an embarrassing defeat versus Texas A&M. Georgia's best wins are against two-loss Tennessee and three-loss Oregon, which was beaten by Oregon State on Saturday. Overall, the Bulldogs would still have five wins against Power 5 opponents over .500 (Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi State and Kentucky). That's a stronger résumé than both Ohio State and Alabama. Ohio State's loss to Michigan was at least to one of the committee's top-four teams, though there's no way to sugarcoat how soundly the Buckeyes were beaten.
Scenario 6: Georgia, USC and TCU all lose
Lock: Michigan
Contenders: Georgia, TCU, Alabama, Ohio State
What committee would do: Throw darts at teams on a board? Pick out of a hat? The Pac-12 would almost certainly be eliminated with its highest-ranked team losing, and this would actually make it easier for the committee to keep Georgia in without flinching. TCU would continue to win on paper with its six victories against opponents over .500, but its best wins would be against K-State and Texas. The Frogs would probably be in the most tenuous position because the committee would lend more weight to Alabama's and Ohio State's wins.
It's wild, but this scenario presents a possible rematch if Michigan is No. 1 and Ohio State is No. 4. But again, it goes back to Tuesday night's ranking, and if the Buckeyes are ahead of Alabama, it could present a semifinal with Michigan against Alabama.
Scenario 7: All favorites lose
Locks: Nobody
Contenders: Georgia, TCU, Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan
What committee would do: First, don't trust anyone who tells you they know the answer to this. Second, Georgia would be in. Michigan has the best win (Ohio State) and the worst loss (Purdue). This could be another scenario in which TCU falls out when it matters most (flashback to 2014, when the Frogs dropped from No. 3 to No. 6 because they didn't have a conference title). The committee could be more impressed by Michigan's wins against Ohio State and Penn State as well as Ohio State's victories against Notre Dame and Penn State than TCU's regular-season wins against Texas and K-State.
One of Alabama's best triumphs is also against Texas, but the committee would likely put more weight into the Tide's wins versus Mississippi State (8-4) and Ole Miss (8-4) than TCU's against Kansas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.