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What's at stake in CFP, conference races and Heisman watch

After all that, it's Rivalry Week.

Week 12 of the college football season gave us a month's worth of wonderful nonsense, from snowy MACtion games (and a wild Toledo-Bowling Green finish) to a playoff-picture-changing blowout (South Carolina 63, Tennessee 38) to a number of near upsets that put us on the verge of chaos. The Vols aside, the sport's top tier held steady, but what seemed like a lackluster Saturday on paper instead kept us on the edge of our seats from start to finish.

After a number of wild weekends, however, we have reached the promised land. The next two weeks of football -- Rivalry Week, followed by Championship Week -- will give us the endings to all the stories we've been following, not only since the season began but since the offseason began. At least one College Football Playoff spot is entirely up for grabs, the Heisman race seems blurrier than ever and a number of conference title races are endless shades of gray.

As Thanksgiving approaches, then, let's set the table. Let's walk through everything that will be decided over the next two weeks, reliving the best moments of Week 12 as we go.

(And because I can't help myself, let's also look at everything that might change through the prism of a 12-team playoff, which we will be getting sometime in the coming years.)

Jump to:
Hypothetical CFP hierarchy | Conference races
What a 12-team playoff world would look like
Heisman of the week | Favorite games

The race for the CFP

Tennessee's loss shook up the CFP picture quite a bit. Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Vols' odds of reaching the final four plummeted from 60% to 9% with the loss, and TCU (up 21 percentage points), Michigan (10 percentage points), USC (6), Clemson (6), Ohio State (6) and LSU (3) all benefited.

We're left with a playoff picture that seems clean at the top but gets muddy very quickly. Here's what we either know or can reasonably assume:

• Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU are all in if they win out (but either Michigan or Ohio State will lose to the other this coming weekend).

• The playoff committee very much did not approve of Michigan's nonconference schedule, starting the Wolverines out at No. 5 behind Clemson in the initial CFP rankings.

• TCU's lack of dominance failed to impress the committee, and the Horned Frogs started out seventh behind a one-loss Alabama. That doesn't say positive things about TCU's chances of getting in with a loss.

• Despite two losses, LSU was up to sixth in last week's rankings and will get a shot at No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship game.

• USC was ahead of Clemson in the "potential one-loss conference champion" pecking order, and the Trojans not only scored a ranked win over UCLA this week but could also nab two more in the coming weeks against Notre Dame and a Pac-12 championship game competitor to come.

Unless the committee does the unexpected and ranks South Carolina this week, Clemson can score only one more ranked win, against North Carolina in the ACC championship game. That likely means USC will remain ahead of the Tigers if both teams win out.


The hypothetical hierarchy

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Bowling Green wins it on Ta'ron Keith's tackle-breaking TD in final seconds

Bowling Green's Ta'ron Keith scores the game-winning touchdown just seconds after Toledo took the lead with a touchdown of its own.

With those knowns in mind, here's a hypothetical hierarchy of teams and the résumés that might exist two weeks from now:

1. 13-0 Georgia (SEC champion)
2. 13-0 Big Ten champion (Ohio State or Michigan)
3. 13-0 TCU (Big 12 champion)

This is very straight-forward. It's also where the straight-forwardness ends. Here's my best guess for what comes next.

4. Georgia 12-1 (SEC runner-up)
5. Ohio State 12-1 (Big Ten runner-up)
6. LSU 11-2 (SEC champ)
7. Michigan 12-1 (Big Ten runner-up)
8. Ohio State 11-1
9. USC 12-1 (Pac-12 champ)
10. Clemson 12-1 (ACC champ)
11. Michigan 11-1
12. TCU 12-1 (Big 12 runner-up)

One has to figure that, barring a loss to Georgia Tech this weekend -- which I'm going to boldly proclaim as "unlikely" -- Georgia is in no matter what. But I am unsure of how the committee would view an Ohio State or Michigan team that beats its big rival but loses (probably to Iowa) in the Big Ten championship game. My guess is that having a top-five win overpowers having what would be a shaky loss as a big favorite; I think both would stay ahead of the USC/Clemson duo in the pecking order.

Maybe the biggest blurring factor remaining on the board: What happens if LSU beats Georgia? I'm confident in saying that the Tigers could slot in above USC or Clemson, but over a 12-1 Ohio State/Michigan? What about an 11-1 Ohio State/Michigan?

13. Alabama 10-2
14. Tennessee 10-2

The Vols and Crimson Tide hover just in case everything goes sideways. I'm not sure there's a path back into the top four for either unless Ohio State or Michigan absolutely destroys the other next week, USC and Clemson both lose and TCU loses at least once and maybe twice. But they technically remain in the race, if only by a thread.


Conference title races

For some conferences, the title game pairings have been set, officially or unofficially, for a while. For others, things are as unclear as ever heading into the final conference games of the season. Let's take a quick run-through of where each conference race stands.

All times Eastern.

SEC

SP+ title odds: Georgia 76%, LSU 24%

Key Rivalry Week games: Georgia Tech at Georgia (Saturday, noon), LSU at Texas A&M (Saturday, 7 p.m.)

In just eight days, LSU went from seemingly being an afterthought in the SEC West race to becoming West champion. The Tigers upset Alabama, survived an upset bid from Arkansas, and that was that. Their coming trip to College Station for a likely rock fight against Texas A&M matters for CFP reasons (technically, UGA's battle with Tech does too), but they'll be heading to Atlanta regardless. Georgia will be heavily favored there.

BIG 12

SP+ title odds: TCU 53%, Kansas State 40%, Texas 8%

Key Rivalry Week games: Baylor at Texas (Friday, noon), Iowa State at TCU (4 p.m.), Kansas at Kansas State (Saturday, 8 p.m.)

It's been a wild ride, but the path to Jerry World is pretty clear at this point: TCU is in, and if Kansas State beats rival Kansas this weekend, the Wildcats are in too. If K-State falls and Texas beats Baylor, the Horns head to Arlington instead. TCU's CFP odds, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, are still only 54% despite its 11-0 record; the main reason is that either one of these teams will provide a very stiff test for the Frogs.

BIG TEN

SP+ title odds: Ohio State 52%, Michigan 33%, Iowa 13%, Purdue 1%, Illinois 0.8%

Key Rivalry Week games: Nebraska at Iowa (Friday, 4 p.m.), Michigan at Ohio State (Saturday, noon), Illinois at Northwestern (3:30 p.m.), Purdue at Indiana (3:30 p.m.)

Purdue beat Northwestern on Saturday, but the Boilermakers' odds of winning the West Division plummeted anyway because Iowa, which owns the tiebreaker over Purdue, pulled a slight upset of Minnesota and seized control of the race. (As much as this race can be seized, anyway.) If the Hawkeyes beat Nebraska in Iowa City on Friday, they'll face the Ohio State-Michigan winner in Indianapolis. If Nebraska pulls an (unlikely) upset, all hell could still break loose. And of course, whoever wins the West will be a massive underdog in Indy.

The current West odds: Iowa 82% (30% last week), Purdue 13% (44% last week), Illinois 5% (14% last week), Minnesota 0% (11% last week).

PAC-12

SP+ title odds: USC 50%, Oregon 38%, Utah 10%, Washington 2%

Key Rivalry Week games: Utah at Colorado (Friday, 4 p.m.), Washington at Washington State (Friday, 10:30 p.m.), Oregon at Oregon State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.), Notre Dame at USC (Saturday, 7:30 p.m.)

Saturday night's Pac-12 showcase games -- USC beating UCLA, Oregon beating Utah -- established the conference's hierarchy heading into Rivalry Week: At 8-1 in conference play, USC has clinched a spot in the title game, though the Trojans will need to beat Notre Dame this week to remain in the CFP hunt. Oregon (7-1) will join the Trojans with a Civil War win over Oregon State (easier said than done with the way the Beavers have played of late), and if the Ducks lose, Utah and Washington still have a shot.

ACC

SP+ title odds: Clemson 70%, North Carolina 30%

Key Rivalry Week games: South Carolina at Clemson (Saturday, noon)

This one feels like it's been set for months. North Carolina did Clemson no strength-of-schedule favors by losing to a Georgia Tech team that, just a week early, seemed like it had packed things up for the season. To reach the CFP, the Tigers will need quite a few breaks, but they could also help themselves with some major style points against both South Carolina this coming weekend and UNC in Charlotte.

AAC

SP+ title odds: Cincinnati 35%, Tulane 33%, UCF 25%, Houston 6%

Key Rivalry Week games: Tulane at Cincinnati (Friday, noon), UCF at USF (Saturday, 7 p.m.), Tulsa at Houston (Saturday, 7:30 p.m.)

A week ago, this race looked completely different. Fresh off of a win at Tulane, UCF had title odds of 52% to Cincinnati's 29% and Tulane's 16%. Thanks to the Knights' stunning Saturday home loss to Navy, their odds have been cut in half while Tulane's have doubled.

Cincinnati and Tulane now stand at 6-1, while UCF and Houston are at 5-2. But there's another complication: Cincy and Tulane play each other this weekend at Nippert Stadium. The winner clinches a spot, but the loser could be stuck in tiebreaker hell with UCF and Houston, both of which are favored to win this weekend. If Houston loses and UCF wins, then UCF is in the title game thanks to head-to-head wins over both Cincy and Tulane. But if Houston and UCF both win, we're careening toward a "highest-ranked team advances" tiebreaker. Buckle up.

SUN BELT

SP+ title odds: Coastal Carolina 51%, Troy 39%, South Alabama 11%

Key Rivalry Week games: Coastal Carolina at James Madison (Friday, noon), Old Dominion at South Alabama (Friday noon), Troy at Arkansas State (Friday, 3 p.m.)

Coastal clinched the East a week ago, while Troy holds a key tiebreaker because of a head-to-head win over South Alabama last month. If the Trojans win at Arkansas State, they're in. If they lose and South Alabama beats ODU, the Jags are in.

It's been a wild season in this conference, hasn't it? Appalachian State was a September darling with a win over Texas A&M and Hail Mary win over Troy, James Madison started 5-0 and was briefly ranked in its first FBS season, Marshall made waves with an early-season upset of Notre Dame, Georgia Southern beat Nebraska ... and none of them will be playing in the Sun Belt championship game.

CONFERENCE USA

SP+ title odds: UTSA 72%, North Texas 23%, Western Kentucky 5%

Key Rivalry Week games: Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic (Saturday, noon), Rice at North Texas (Saturday, 2 p.m.)

After cooking Rice 41-7 on Saturday in Houston, UTSA will host the C-USA championship game for the second straight year. If North Texas does the same to the Owls on Saturday, the Mean Green will head to San Antonio; if UNT somehow slips up, that opens the door for WKU if the Hilltoppers can win at 5-6 FAU.

MOUNTAIN WEST

SP+ title odds: Boise State 63%, Fresno State 37%

Key Rivalry Week games: None

Boise State and Fresno State are a combined 13-1 in conference play, and they'll get home tuneups against Utah State and Wyoming, respectively, before meeting for the crown in Boise. It's been quite a turnaround for both teams. Boise State started the season 2-2 and fired its offensive coordinator four games into the season, and Fresno State started 1-4 and lost at BSU on Oct. 8; the Bulldogs haven't lost since.

MAC

SP+ title odds: Toledo 63%, Ohio 30%, Buffalo 5%, Bowling Green 2%

Key Rivalry Week games: Bowling Green at Ohio (Tuesday, 7 p.m.), Kent State at Buffalo (Saturday, 1 p.m.)

Toledo is in from the West, but maybe the worst division in FBS - the MAC East - is producing one of the weirdest endings. With Buffalo-Akron postponed due to the unbelievable amounts of snowfall in upstate New York, the MAC's "uneven number of games" tiebreaker could come into play: If Buffalo (4-2 in conference play) beats Kent State and Bowling Green (5-2) beats Ohio (6-1) -- Buffalo and Ohio are the favorites -- the 5-2 Bulls would win the division over Bowling Green and Ohio, both at 6-2, thanks to head-to-head wins over both. Funky.


How we'd be viewing the world with a 12-team playoff

ESPN's "College GameDay" visited Bozeman this past weekend for the Brawl of the Wild, one of the FCS' most celebrated rivalry games, between Montana and host Montana State. Despite a temperature of negative eleventy kajillion degrees, the fans showed up early, and the environment was raucous. It was one of the best "GameDay" crowds of the year. After the show, Montana State pummeled the Grizzlies, going on a 41-0 midgame run and cruising 55-21.

On Sunday, despite losses to not only Montana State but also Idaho, a top-five-at-the-time Weber State and No. 2 seed Sacramento State, Montana found out it still had a place in the FCS playoffs. The Grizzlies will host Southeast Missouri State on Saturday night in the round of 24; if they win, they'll face No. 2 North Dakota State in Fargo.

A month ago, Grand Valley State knocked off its hated Anchor Bone Classic rival, Ferris State, in a 22-21 thriller. The two are favored to meet again in two weeks in the Division II playoff quarterfinals. If GVSU wins, the Lakers could face Colorado School of Mines in the semis; GVSU beat the Orediggers 25-22 in a season-opening classic.

Do you feel that? It's the planet continuing to spin properly on its axis. GVSU-Ferris State was still a sold-out, hard-fought spectacle even though both teams came in understanding that they would almost certainly reach the playoffs. Montana State fans were still ridiculously raucous throughout Saturday's big win, and Bobcats fans still have yearlong bragging rights over Grizzlies fans. The games still had major consequences for seeding and home-field advantages in the playoffs -- GVSU would host a rematch with Ferris State this time, and Montana State earned a top-four seed and at least two hypothetical playoff home games with Saturday's big win -- but beyond all of that, these games were huge events because, well, they are huge events.

My reason for saying all of this is probably pretty obvious, but let's spell it out: There remains a pretty strong chorus of naysayers who bemoan the CFP's expansion to 12 teams because it will render the regular season meaningless. Suddenly the Iron Bowl -- or Michigan-Ohio State or Alabama-LSU or Tennessee-Georgia or USC-UCLA or the SEC or Big Ten championship games or [insert any other particularly big game here] -- will lose all meaning because the loser could still reach the CFP!

I could dismissively wave my hand at the haters who are complaining about expansion, tell them to suck it up and move on. But let's step back and ponder this impending change. How would we be viewing the playoff race at the moment if the 12-teamer were already in place?

TCU, USC and Clemson would be fighting for byes. In a world in which only conference champions can snare a top-four seed (and six champions are guaranteed a playoff spot), the stakes for big late-season games would change. Whereas it is almost impossible for both a 12-1 USC and 12-1 Clemson to get into a four-team playoff, they would head into these final two weeks knowing that if they won their conference title game, they'd be in no matter what. This coming weekend's games (USC-Notre Dame and Clemson-South Carolina) would be meaningless in that regard.

But! In a 12-team playoff world, a win over Notre Dame would all but clinch a playoff bid for USC -- and officially eliminate the 8-3 Fighting Irish from contention -- no matter what happened in the Pac-12 championship game, so there would still be major consequences at play. Clemson probably wouldn't be guaranteed a spot with a win over South Carolina, but the Tigers would get pretty close. Meanwhile, whoever finished the strongest would likely get a richly desired bye. If TCU lost its regular-season finale to Iowa State, the Frogs' bye possibilities would be hurt immensely. The in-or-out cutoff obviously gets moved way down with expansion to 12 teams, but with byes and first-round home games on the line, there is never a totally meaningless game.

Losing to LSU would actually have consequences for Georgia. I noted above that assuming the Dawgs beat Georgia Tech this weekend, they are almost certainly into the four-team CFP regardless of what happens against LSU in the SEC championship game. But with a 12-team playoff, they would be denied a bye if they lost in Atlanta, and while they would be heavy favorites in a first-round home game, likely against the AAC champion, that's an extra game of wear and tear (and potential injury) that they would have to deal with. Plus, as we just saw with South Carolina-Tennessee, for every extra game a team has to play, it runs the risk of an opponent playing a perfect game and pulling an upset.

Yes, Alabama and Tennessee would be safe. Barring a string of miraculous results, this will almost certainly be the second CFP that takes place without Alabama as a participant. The Crimson Tide have lost twice in the regular season for just the second time since 2010, but with a 12-team playoff, they would still be looking at a likely No. 7 or No. 8 seed, a first-round home game and a potential neutral-site game with the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the quarterfinals. They could still easily make a national title push despite playing some of the sloppiest, most careless ball of the Nick Saban era.

That certainly goes into the "cons" list in regard to expansion, as does the fact that Tennessee just gave up 63 points to South Carolina but would still be looking at potentially hosting a playoff game if it beat Vanderbilt to finish the season. That doesn't overpower the countless pros, but it's still a con.

Penn State, Kansas State, Florida State, Washington and Notre Dame would all be making late charges. Suddenly, catching fire late in the season would mean a lot.

In the past four weeks, Kansas State has won games by 17, 28 and 48 points and has risen to 11th in SP+. Penn State has won three in a row by an average of 43-8 and has risen to sixth in SP+. Washington has won five in a row to move to 9-2. After a three-game midseason losing streak, Florida State has won its past four games by an average score of 43-10 and could end up in the top 15 of the CFP rankings this week.

Of those teams, only Kansas State still has a realistic chance at a conference title. But even if we grant that the Michigan-Ohio State loser, Alabama, Tennessee and maybe LSU would snare four of the at-large bids in a 12-team CFP, all of these smoking-hot teams, along with Oregon and maybe Utah, UCLA or Notre Dame, would be battling for the last two spots. And whichever teams get in would be absolute hell to play in a first-round matchup.

The AAC, Conference USA and Sun Belt races all would have playoff-level importance. In reality, with a four-team playoff and New Year's Six bowl bids, UCF's loss to Navy has opened a door for chaos when it comes to the Group of 5's NY6 slot. Tulane and Cincinnati should rank in the 20s when the new CFP rankings come out Tuesday night, and UCF still might, but both UTSA and Coastal Carolina are on the cusp of a spot in the 20s as well. Depending on how the AAC race shakes out, either the Roadrunners or Chanticleers could head into Championship Week with an outside shot at the New Year's Six.

Those are pretty high stakes! Now let's make them 10 times bigger by replacing the words "New Year's Six" with "CFP."

Approximately 25 to 28 teams would still have playoff hopes with two weeks left in the season. Yes, with a 12-teamer, we're handing out a lot more mulligans. But we'd also be heading toward a Championship Week in which up to eight conference title games would matter in the CFP race, we still would have no idea who would be getting playoff byes and home games, and the Penn State/Florida State/Kansas State-style teams -- potential playoff usurpers who are looking increasingly awesome -- would suddenly be commanding our attention as well. This sport is always chaotic. A 12-teamer would add a few more layers of chaos to the mix. Bring it on. And suck it up, haters.


Who won the Heisman this week? (And who the heck is going to win it for real?)

We're attempting an experiment this season: What happens if I award the Heisman Trophy every single week of the season and dole out weekly points, F1 style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second, and so on)? How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

1. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (30-for-37 for 438 yards and six touchdowns, plus 15 receiving yards vs. Tennessee)

2. Caleb Williams, USC (32-for-43 for 470 yards, two TDs and one INT, plus 33 rushing yards and a touchdown vs. UCLA)

3. Bijan Robinson, Texas (25 carries for 243 yards and four touchdowns vs. Kansas)

4. Raheim Sanders, Arkansas (24 carries for 232 yards and three touchdowns, plus 29 receiving yards vs. Ole Miss)

5. Max Duggan, TCU (24-for-35 for 327 yards and one TD with one INT, plus 50 rushing yards and a touchdown against Baylor)

6. Bennett Williams, Oregon (14 tackles, two interceptions, 0.5 TFLs vs. Utah)

7. Jayden Daniels, LSU (22-for-29 for 297 yards and one touchdown, plus 111 rushing yards and a touchdown vs. UAB)

8. Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota (39 carries for 263 yards and one touchdown vs. Iowa)

9. Clayton Tune, Houston (32-for-44 for 435 yards and four touchdowns with one interception, plus 59 rushing yards and a touchdown vs. East Carolina)

10. Jordan Addison, USC (11 catches for 178 yards and a touchdown vs. UCLA)

Honorable mention: Sam Hartman, Wake Forest (30-for-43 for 331 yards and four touchdowns, plus 44 rushing yards vs. Syracuse); Odieu Hilaire, Bowling Green (eight catches for 246 yards and two touchdowns vs. Toledo); Jordan Moore, Duke (14 catches for 199 yards and a touchdown vs. Pitt); Benjamin Morrison, Notre Dame (one tackles, three interceptions vs. Boston College); Vince Sanford, Air Force (seven tackles, four sacks among five TFLs vs. Colorado State); Kimani Vidal, Troy (29 carries for 242 yards and two touchdowns vs. UL-Monroe)

Nationwide, Week 12 was the week of the running back. The temperatures were low, the skies were gray, and teams took to the ground: Eight players rushed for more than 200 yards, and 18 hit at least 140. Three of the top eight spots on our Heisman list went to RBs - it easily could have been more - but even so, there was no doubt that quarterbacks would nab the top two spots.

Caleb Williams was at his Mahomes-ian best Saturday night in the Rose Bowl, throwing for nearly 500 yards and completing passes to nine different receivers. After a slow start that included a missed field goal and an interception, Williams led the Trojans to eight scores in nine drives. They needed all eight scores to hold off a relentless UCLA offense that scored 45 points despite four turnovers. The USC defense is in no way worthy of a title -- or even worthy of being in the top 50 -- but the Trojans remain in the CFP hunt because of Williams, his right arm and his receivers.

Somehow one quarterback topped Williams on Saturday night, however. And of all people, it was Spencer Rattler. The 2021 preseason Heisman favorite transferred to South Carolina this season and has had a mostly forgettable season. Before Saturday, he had thrown for just 1,698 yards and eight touchdowns with nine interceptions; he hadn't topped even 200 yards passing yards in a game since September, and the Gamecocks' offense had been held to 10 or fewer points in two of the past three weeks.

Then Saturday happened. Pass defense has been a major Tennessee weakness all season, but there was still no way to see "30-for-37 for 438 yards and six touchdowns in a 63-38 win" coming. Rattler completed passes to 10 receivers and caught a 15-yarder from part-time wildcat quarterback Dakereon Joyner. He found Antwane Wells Jr. 11 times for 177 yards, and while Tennessee kept trying to charge back into the game for three quarters, the Gamecocks answered every single time. South Carolina was already pulling away when Heisman contender Hendon Hooker left the game with what turned out to be a season-ending ACL injury. It was a performance South Carolina fans started dreaming of the moment Rattler announced he was moving to Columbia.

Through 12 weeks, here are the overall Heisman race point totals:

1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (39 points)
2. Bo Nix, Oregon (38 points)
3. Caleb Williams, USC (35 points)
4. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (33 points)
5. Drake Maye, North Carolina (26 points)
6. Stetson Bennett, Georgia (25 points)
7. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (24 points)
8. Bijan Robinson, Texas (22 points)
9. Jayden Daniels, LSU (20 points)
10. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (18 points)

With just two weeks left until Heisman ballots are due, the picture feels blurrier than ever. Williams' big week moves him up to third in the points race, but he might be in the process of moving into co-favorite status with Stroud. Unfortunately, Hooker's campaign came to a downcast end Saturday, and while Michigan's Blake Corum still enjoys pretty solid betting odds too -- despite the fact that he has struggled to stand out in this race -- he suffered his own injury Saturday and missed an opportunity to stand out.


My 10 favorite games of the weekend

1. No. 4 TCU 29, Baylor 28. Everything TCU did in the final 30 seconds baffled me, and it worked perfectly.

Just the most perfect fire drill you're ever going to see. And it followed what had already been an absolutely wonderful college football game.

2. No. 7 USC 48, No. 16 UCLA 45. USC kept trying to pull away, and UCLA kept refusing to let the Trojans do so. And after an incredible track meet, a defensive play -- Korey Foreman's interception in the final two minutes -- won the game. The ultimate plot twist.

3. No. 3 Michigan 19, Illinois 17. Illinois played a perfect third quarter to seize control, but as has been the case virtually all season, the Illini just needed a little bit more offense. Instead, it was Jake Moody time. The mustachioed senior won the game with a 35-yard field goal and led the locker room celebrations.

4. No. 12 Oregon 20, No. 10 Utah 17. Both teams had countless opportunities to seize control of this one, but despite the presence of two of the sport's best quarterbacks -- Utah's Cameron Rising and Oregon's banged-up Bo Nix -- the defenses kept making huge plays.

5. Western Michigan 12, Central Michigan 10. Sometimes it's all about aesthetics.

God bless snow football.

6. Georgia Tech 21, No. 13 North Carolina 17. I'm not going to lie; I completely tuned this one out in the second quarter when UNC went up 17-0. Apparently, so did UNC. Tech's defense held the Heels to 108 second-half yards and charged back to shock the ACC Coastal champs.

7. Indiana 39, Michigan State 31 (2OT). Up 31-14 in the third quarter, Michigan State proceeded to give up a kick return score, turn the ball over on downs twice, miss two field goals and fail to score in two overtime possessions. Indiana just refused to go away and ended up reaping the spoils.

8. Navy 17, No. 20 UCF 14. Navy pulled a Navy: 39:36 in time of possession, zero passing yards and one touchdown allowed in UCF's six trips inside the 50. The Midshipmen went up 17-14 with 8:22 left in the third quarter and somehow made the lead hold up.

9. Bowling Green 42, Toledo 35. Bowling Green went up 21-0 early, Toledo came all the way back and took the lead with a 21-point fourth quarter ... and then gave it all away when Ta'ron Keith somehow broke into the open.

10. NAIA: No. 8 Lindsey Wilson 23, No. 9 Reinhardt 22. The small-school playoffs began this weekend and already began creating magic. LWC, the spring 2021 national champion, took a 23-0 lead with seven minutes left after a 95-yard Luke Bowman pick-six. Totally safe, right? Nope. Reinhardt scored 44 seconds later and hit the 2-point conversion, then recovered an onside kick and scored 90 seconds after that. Another 2-point conversion made it 23-16, and after LWC punted, Reinhardt's Hunter Arters threw his third touchdown pass of the quarter -- his fourth, if you include the pick-six! -- to make it 23-22 with 18 seconds left.

When you've got the hot hand, you go for 2. The Eagles did so ... and Arters was stopped short. Lindsey Wilson moves on to the NAIA quarterfinals.