The big, bad SEC suddenly looks human again.
No. 5 Tennessee, a team that had made the entire playoff picture more interesting with its potential to unseat a Power 5 conference champion on Selection Day without even winning its division, is done. Kaput. An afterthought in the playoff race after its embarrassing 63-38 loss to unranked, four-loss South Carolina.
With Tennessee joining Alabama -- Alabama! -- in the two-loss club and out of the SEC championship, the likelihood of the conference having multiple teams finish in the top four has drastically diminished. The most realistic scenario remaining is one team: No. 1 Georgia. If No. 6 LSU manages an upset in its conference title game, the SEC would likely have two teams in, as LSU would become the first two-loss team to finish in the top four after wins against Alabama and Georgia, and the one-loss Bulldogs would still have a chance as the SEC runner-up after gaining separation from the field as the committee's No. 1 team in November.
Tennessee's loss was a huge gain for USC, Clemson and the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game -- all contenders who no longer have to worry about competing against the Vols for a top-four spot on Selection Day. With the SEC champion, the Big Ten champion and undefeated TCU unofficial locks to finish in the top four, the final spot remains open.
In addition to the SEC's shrinking field, here are the top four lessons learned from a wild Week 12 that will impact how the committee will cast its final votes on Selection Day:
USC has the Pac-12 in prime playoff position
USC was the biggest beneficiary of Tennessee's faceplant. While the top four teams in the country won in ho-hum fashion Saturday, the one-loss Trojans provided the sizzle and jaw-dropping moments in the most entertaining, meaningful game of the day. USC clinched a spot in the Pac-12 title game with its win against crosstown rival UCLA, adding another win against a ranked opponent to its résumé. The Trojans should replace Tennessee as the committee's No. 5 team on Tuesday, jumping No. 6 LSU, which should hold that spot.
If the Trojans can beat a surging Notre Dame team Saturday in the regular-season finale and punctuate their résumé with a Pac-12 title, they could arguably make the best case of the other contenders for that fourth spot on Selection Day.
USC's final résumé in that scenario would trump a one-loss Michigan that doesn't win its division, along with a one-loss Clemson that would have defeated North Carolina to win the ACC. USC would also have a win against a common opponent in Notre Dame, which thoroughly outplayed Clemson 35-14 in South Bend on Nov. 5. A debate against a one-loss Ohio State team that doesn't beat Michigan could be interesting, because both USC and Ohio State will have played Notre Dame, and the selection committee considers common opponents. USC could ultimately win a debate against Ohio State if the Buckeyes finish with one loss, too, because they could wind up with more wins against CFP Top 25 opponents, and a conference title is also used as a tiebreaker.
The Big Ten's chances of getting two teams in the CFP just got better
Ohio State gets to Taulia Tagovailoa and picks up the loose ball for a touchdown.
No, Saturday wasn't pretty for Ohio State or Michigan, as they both struggled to beat unranked opponents Maryland and Illinois, respectively, but they're still undefeated and in an ideal position for Saturday's loser to at least be considered for a top-four spot on Selection Day.
With Tennessee eliminated, the loser of The Game would have a chance to earn the fourth spot ahead of ACC champion Clemson but needs to remain wary of one-loss USC (see above). There's already a significant gap between the Big Ten's two best teams and No. 9 Clemson.
The best-case scenario for the East Division runner-up would include Georgia winning the SEC and eliminating LSU, a Pac-12 winner with multiple losses, and a TCU loss, either on Saturday at home against Iowa State or in the Big 12 title game. If the Pac-12 winner has multiple losses, the loser of The Game could join Georgia, the Big Ten champ and even one-loss TCU as a Big 12 champion.
The Buckeyes have the better shot without a division title, in large part because they would still have two wins against CFP Top 25 opponents in Penn State and Notre Dame. The win against Notre Dame could be critical because Ohio State would likely be compared against ACC champion Clemson, which lost 35-14 at Notre Dame on Nov. 5. The selection committee compares results against common opponents as one of the tiebreakers, along with strength of schedule, and Ohio State could trump the Tigers in both of those categories. It's also possible, especially given how well South Carolina played Saturday against Tennessee, that Clemson loses its regular-season finale to the Gamecocks.
If Michigan loses, its only win against a ranked opponent would be Oct. 15 vs. Penn State, and the Wolverines' unconvincing performance Saturday in the win against Illinois would raise some eyebrows in the room. The committee would consider Michigan's injuries, especially with star running back Blake Corum out for the second half, but that highlighted some deficiencies in the passing game, including some overthrows and drops. If the committee thinks Michigan is "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country, though, it's not beholden to the tiebreakers.
Following the committee's third ranking, chair Boo Corrigan called Ohio State and Michigan "two well-balanced teams."
"Ohio State does have the win over Notre Dame," he said, "which I believe at this point as a committee, as we talk about it, that stands out a little bit to us as we're going through this."
Clemson was a winner, but still needs help
With the likelihood of the SEC having multiple teams finish in the top four significantly diminished, the Tigers can continue to cling to hope as a one-loss ACC champion. Clemson needs a Pac-12 champ with multiple losses and/or three-loss Kansas State to win the Big 12 in order for a top-four finish to become more realistic.
It didn't help Clemson that North Carolina lost to 5-6 Georgia Tech on Saturday. The Tigers will face UNC in the ACC championship game, and a win over the Tar Heels won't impress the committee as much as the opportunities TCU and USC will have in their respective conference title games. The loss to Notre Dame is also looming large as a common opponent with both Ohio State and USC.
TCU has more margin for error
With the Vols on the bubble, there was pressure on TCU to finish as an undefeated Big 12 champion, but the Horned Frogs should have a little more leeway now that Tennessee isn't on their heels. If TCU loses at home to Iowa State in a close game Saturday but still wins the Big 12 championship, it has a better chance of finishing in the top four on Selection Day now that it won't be compared to a Tennessee team that had wowed the committee with wins against LSU and Alabama.