What looked like it might be a relatively ho-hum schedule of games this week turned out to be anything but. In addition to some close calls for all of the top four teams, No. 5 Tennessee was shocked by South Carolina, No. 7 USC won a thriller over UCLA and No. 10 Utah fell to No. 12 Oregon.
What does it all mean for the College Football Playoff, the New Year's Six and the rest of the bowl picture? ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach break it all down with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups, which teams helped and hurt their causes the most, and which matchup they'd most like to see.
All times Eastern.
College Football Playoff
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. USC
Schlabach: Georgia vs. USC
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. TCU
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. TCU
CFP breakdown
Bonagura: Without accounting for possible upsets over the next couple of weeks, the top three teams are straightforward: Georgia, the Ohio State/Michigan winner and TCU. After that, it gets interesting.
Would the committee dare select the Ohio State/Michigan loser ahead of a one-loss champion from the Pac-12 (USC) or ACC (Clemson)? It's doubtful but not out of the realm of possibility. How about a two-loss SEC champion in LSU? The committee had LSU ranked ahead of USC and Clemson prior to this weekend's games. Does the Trojans' win against UCLA change that? It should. If USC wins out, the Trojans have to like their chances.
Schlabach: None of the top CFP contenders looked great Saturday. Georgia won 16-6 at Kentucky and had just 116 passing yards. Ohio State won 43-30 at Maryland, which had 402 yards of offense. Michigan kicked three field goals in the fourth quarter and held off Illinois 19-17 on Jake Moody's 35-yarder with nine seconds left. TCU came from behind, again, and knocked off Baylor 29-28 on the road on Griffin Kell's 40-yard field goal as time expired. And USC edged rival UCLA 48-45 on the road to reach the Pac-12 championship game.
None of the top contenders were particularly dominant, but at this time of the year, it's about surviving and not style points. I'll stick with my top four of Georgia, Ohio State, TCU and USC. I'm picking the Buckeyes to defeat the Wolverines at home Saturday.
Team that helped itself the most
Bonagura: USC. It took a thrilling effort to escape the Rose Bowl with a win against rival UCLA and take a significant step forward in the CFP race. The Trojans' playoff odds improved more than any team in the country after that win was coupled with Tennessee's loss.
Schlabach: TCU. The Horned Frogs' wild ride continued with another come-from-behind victory at Baylor. The Frogs keep living on the edge, but they keep getting it done in the end. Unbeaten TCU has one regular-season matchup left, against Iowa State at home, before playing in the Big 12 championship game. The Horned Frogs will probably play Kansas State in the conference title game. TCU rallied from an 18-point deficit to defeat the Wildcats 38-28 on Oct. 22. Kansas State can clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a victory over rival Kansas on Saturday or if Texas loses to Baylor on Friday.
New Year's Six
Dec. 30
Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Alabama
Dec. 31
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. LSU
Jan. 2
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. Tulane
Team that hurt itself the most
Bonagura: Tennessee. The Volunteers left no doubt that they did not belong in the playoff with an emphatic loss to South Carolina. Had the Vols won that game, a game against Vanderbilt was the final obstacle to a one-loss regular season, which would have been a compelling case for CFP inclusion.
Schlabach: Tennessee's 63-38 loss at South Carolina was stunning, to say the least. The Volunteers allowed 606 yards of offense to the Gamecocks, who had failed to gain 300 in three of their previous four games. South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler completed 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards and six touchdowns. It was the most points the Volunteers have ever allowed in an SEC game; the previous record came in a 62-37 loss to Florida in 1995. The loss not only knocked the Volunteers out of the CFP, but it also put them in danger of not being selected for a New Year's Six bowl.
Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon
Matchup I'd be most excited to see
Bonagura: Give me USC-Georgia in the Peach Bowl. It's been a long time since the Pac-12 has been relevant on the national stage, and while the Trojans would be a decisive underdog in that matchup, it would be a compelling storyline with USC on its way out of the conference.
Schlabach: Clemson and Alabama are certainly no strangers in the postseason. The Tigers and Crimson Tide have played four times in bowl games since 2015 and produced two of the most memorable national championship games in recent history. Alabama won 45-40 after the 2015 season; Clemson won 35-31 the next year. The Tigers also won the latest matchup, 44-16, in the title game after the 2018 season.
Bowl season
Dec. 16
HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Texas vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green
Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: SMU vs. UAB
Dec. 17
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. UCF
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Cincinnati
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Air Force vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: UConn vs. San Diego State
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Boise State
LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. UConn
Schlabach: Troy vs. BYU
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCLA vs. Missouri
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Mississippi State
Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Middle Tennessee State vs. BYU
Schlabach: Rice vs. Utah State
Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ball State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee State
Dec. 20
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Toledo
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. UAB
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Eastern Michigan
Dec. 21
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Troy
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Dec. 22
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. SMU
Schlabach: Kansas vs. UCF
Dec. 23
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Army
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Army
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Memphis vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. Louisiana
Dec. 24
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Utah State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Air Force
Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Ohio
Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Liberty vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Southern Miss
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rice vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Wyoming
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Houston vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Memphis vs. South Alabama
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Maryland
Dec. 28
Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Houston
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Liberty
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Utah
TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma
Dec. 29
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Purdue
Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Texas vs. Washington
Dec. 30
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Duke vs. Wisconsin
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Oregon State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Kentucky
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Ball State
Dec. 31
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Purdue vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Florida
Jan. 2
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Florida
Schlabach: Iowa vs. South Carolina
Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Ole Miss