A week after Week 4 trimmed the list more than expected, college football's unbeatens held strong in Week 5. While projections entering the weekend suggested we would lose about seven of the 21 unblemished teams, we instead lost only five. Washington (to UCLA), NC State (to Clemson) and Kentucky (to Ole Miss) lost to fellow unbeatens, and while Florida State and Minnesota both fell victim to upsets, those defeats were offset by upset victories for TCU and Oklahoma State.
On paper, our friends might mostly hold steady this week. We will definitely lose at least one team from the list because Kansas hosts TCU (and ESPN's College GameDay) in Lawrence. But two of the other 14 are idle, and the sportsbooks favor 10 others by at least 10 points. Only UCLA (+3 vs. Utah) and Tennessee (-3.5 at LSU) appear to be in danger.
Five weeks in, we are left with the Stupendous 16. A week from now it might be the Fabulous 14 or Thunderous 13. We know inherently that most of these teams will lose in the coming weeks, but until they do, they can keep dreaming. The out-of-nowhere dream season is one of the sport's greatest storylines, and we've still got a few of them brewing.
Let's rank the remaining unbeatens!
16. Coastal Carolina
SP+ and FPI rankings: 57th and 80th, respectively
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.2% (last week: 3.0%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Georgia Southern 34-30. Down 30-28 with less than a minute left, the Chanticleers prevailed thanks to CJ Beasley's touchdown and one of the most clutch hurdles you'll ever see.
Coastal Carolina's CJ Beasley jumps right over his defender on the way to scoring the game-winning touchdown.
Why they're ranked here: Jamey Chadwell's Chants have yet to play a team ranked higher than 84th in SP+, and they've needed clutch plays to win tight games against two of them. We knew this season could be a struggle because of the amount of production they lost from last year's 11-2 squad. Indeed, the defense is currently just 90th in defensive SP+ and 80th in points allowed per drive, and Coastal has allowed at least 24 points in every game despite a turtle-slow tempo.
But you know what the best kind of struggle is? The kind where you keep right on winning. It has required heroics from quarterback Grayson McCall, Beasley and others, but Coastal has come through, and with upcoming games against Louisiana-Monroe (117th in SP+) and Old Dominion (90th), the Chants could keep this going a little while longer.
15. Syracuse
SP+ and FPI rankings: 58th and 35th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1% (last week: same)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Wagner 59-0. Wagner is a bad FCS team, so this was always going to be a blowout, but the Orange were sharp -- Garrett Shrader completed all 17 of his passes and threw for 238 yards, Sean Tucker needed just 23 carries to gain 232 yards and Syracuse allowed the Seahawks just four first downs.
Why they're ranked here: Their wild, last-second upset of Purdue is their only win over an SP+ top-75 team to date, and the memory of their narrow home win over a pretty mediocre Virginia team lingers. (And again: Wagner is quite bad.)
This is still a hell of a story, and while Dino Babers' resurgent Orange are probably not long for the unbeaten world -- after a Week 6 bye, they face six straight opponents ranked from 18th to 45th -- they are still likely to reach at least seven wins by season's end. Considering they went a combined 6-17 in 2020 and '21, that's a remarkable turnaround.
14. James Madison
SP+ and FPI rankings: 34th and 63rd
Odds of reaching 11-0, per SP+ (team plays only 11 games): 11% (last week: 1.7%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Texas State 40-13. Until allowing a touchdown on the final play of the game, the Dukes' incredible defense had tied the Bobcats by itself thanks to a 22-yard Jailin Walker pick-six. JMU scored the game's first 26 points and rolled.
Why they're ranked here: In its inaugural FBS season, Curt Cignetti's squad is achieving at an even higher level than I expected. (And I expected quite a bit!) The offense is good, but the defense ranks first in the nation in yards allowed per drive and per game, providing the offense with the best starting field position in the country. Only Appalachian State (28th in offensive SP+) has topped 13 points on the Dukes.
Plenty of challenges remain -- they take the road for the next two weeks, then host Marshall before a Week 10 trip to Louisville -- but what a debut this has already been.
13. Kansas
SP+ and FPI rankings: 55th and 53rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: less than 0.1% (last week: same)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Iowa State 14-11. After rolling to four wins thanks to a dynamite offense, the Jayhawks needed their defense to bail them out this time, and it just barely did so. Iowa State gained just 303 yards and turned the ball over twice, but it still took a 1-for-4 performance on field goals from Cyclones kicker Jace Gilbert (including a miss at the buzzer) for KU to remain blemish-free. But GameDay is indeed coming to town because of it.
Why they're ranked here: They've faced two top-50 offenses (per SP+) and allowed a combined 72 points. They've faced one top-50 defense and scored just 14.
Kansas indeed needed a bit of good fortune Saturday, but Lance Leipold's Jayhawks have overachieved against both the spread and SP+ projections in every game this season. They could still have a few more surprises in store ... or at least, they'd better. Starting with TCU on Saturday, six of their seven remaining opponents rank 22nd or better in SP+.
12. UCLA
SP+ and FPI rankings: 16th and 31st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 6.5% (last week: 3.2%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Washington 40-32. Dorian Thompson-Robinson won my weekly Heisman by throwing for 315 yards and three scores and adding 53 rushing yards and another TD as the Bruins used a 24-0 run to seize control. Washington made it close late but never got the ball back with a chance to tie.
Why they're ranked here: I'm learning to trust the Bruins. The offensive backfield is incredible, with DTR completing 74% of his passes with an 11-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and running back Zach Charbonnet averaging 6.4 yards per carry. The Bruins' offense ranks sixth overall in success rate, and the defense tackles well and prevents big plays.
It's going to be awfully difficult, however, to remain unbeaten through the next two games -- Utah this Saturday, then at Oregon on Oct. 22. SP+ likes the Bruins quite a bit but gives them only a 22% chance of winning both games. This is a very good team, but it probably won't be on this list much longer.
11. TCU
SP+ and FPI rankings: 21st and 13th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9% (last week: 0.1%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Oklahoma 55-24. The Horned Frogs came ready for a fight, and the Sooners did not. TCU led 20-3 after eight minutes and 41-17 at halftime; only mercy kept them under 60 points or 700 total yards (they ended up at 668).
Why they're ranked here: I don't trust the defense just yet, but it was good against Oklahoma (with help from an injury to Sooners QB Dillon Gabriel), and it only needs to make so many stops.
This offense is a haymakers machine. The Frogs put Colorado away with a 31-0 spurt, began the SMU game with a 28-7 run and pulled off runs of 20-3 and 35-7 against OU. They have three home run hitters in the backfield (four if you include quarterback Max Duggan) and a diverse and unpredictable receiving corps. Sonny Dykes' offense will keep them in almost any game ... even if the defense eventually gets them knocked off the unbeatens list.
10. USC
SP+ and FPI rankings: 27th and 11th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.9% (last week: 3.3%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Arizona State 42-25. The Trojans labored but never trailed the Sun Devils, instead easing to a comfortable win -- and underachieving the sportsbooks' expectations for the second straight week -- behind Caleb Williams (348 passing yards), Jordan Addison (105 receiving yards) and, eventually, some defensive stops.
Why they're ranked here: They've still benefited massively from good fortune in the turnovers department, and they're 120th in yards allowed per drive. This doesn't speak to long-term success, but there's no question that Williams and the offense are proven, steady and exciting.
We're just two weeks away from one of the most exciting and anticipated (by me, anyway) games of the season and one of the biggest Pac-12 games in years: USC at Utah on Oct. 15. Utah has been in fifth gear after opening the season with an upset loss to Florida, and if the Trojans escape Salt Lake City unbeaten, I'll officially start buying into the hype.
9. Penn State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 14th and 12th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.0% (last week: 1.5%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Northwestern 17-7. Against a Wildcats team reeling after losses to Duke, Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio), the Nittany Lions sure took their time putting this one away. They committed five turnovers, averaged just 4.6 yards per play and weren't comfortable until Jake Pinegar's fourth-quarter field goal. (The defense obviously had fewer problems.)
Why they're ranked here: The offensive inefficiency is an increasing concern. Penn State ranks just 68th in success rate -- 101st in rushing success rate and 100th in first downs per carry.
Quarterback Sean Clifford has been steady, and few teams have a more explosive RB-WR-TE trio than Nicholas Singleton, Parker Washington and Brenton Strange. But after a Week 6 bye, James Franklin's squad will take on three consecutive teams ranked in the SP+ top 10 (at Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State). That will be difficult to survive without more offensive consistency, even with a defense that ranks fifth in defensive SP+ and is living up to all expectations under Manny Diaz.
8. Oklahoma State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 17th and 15th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9% (last week: 0.6%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Baylor 36-25. It took some special teams explosions (like Jaden Nixon's 98-yard kick return) to make this one comfortable, but the Pokes scored a huge road win by winning third downs and holding Baylor scoreless for nearly 30 minutes. Nixon's return gave them a 23-3 lead early in the second half, and they made just enough big plays to fend off the Bears the rest of the way.
Why they're ranked here: OSU still has lots of veterans from last year's team that just missed the playoff, quarterback Spencer Sanders isn't making quite as many YOLO throws (though he did have one awfully bad interception Saturday), and this team is beginning to look like a combination of the big-play-faucet teams of 2015 through 2017 and the defense-and-physicality team that won 12 games last fall. The Big 12 is probably too much of a gauntlet for the Cowboys to finish 12-0 -- they have road trips to TCU, Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma still to go -- but they just cleared one giant hurdle.
7. Ole Miss
SP+ and FPI rankings: 7th and 9th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.0% (last week: 2.2%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Kentucky 22-19. Lane Kiffin's Rebels have won plenty of games with raw explosiveness, but while they indeed made a few big plays Saturday, they won primarily by making far fewer mistakes -- typically a rather difficult thing to do against Kentucky. They sacked UK quarterback Will Levis three times, once for a safety, and forced and recovered a pair of late Levis fumbles in the red zone. It was both gritty and rather fortunate.
Why they're ranked here: This is Kiffin's most well-rounded Rebels team yet, one that still boasts plenty of offensive firepower but also ranks seventh in points allowed per drive and 16th in defensive SP+. Run defense remains an issue -- and there are plenty of high-end run offenses left on the schedule -- but in my Friday preview column I said that the game against Kentucky would tell us who is the up-and-comingest program in the SEC. We got our answer.
6. Tennessee
SP+ and FPI rankings: 8th and 10th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.6% (last week: 1.3%)
What they did in Week 5: nothing. The Volunteers were idle while gearing up for a ferocious stretch: Over the next five weeks, they'll play four ranked teams, including two of the nation's top three.
Why they're ranked here: Quarterback Hendon Hooker and the offense are as fierce as ever, and while the defense hasn't been nearly as dominant, it has come through when it needed to, holding Pitt to three points over an eight-drive span in an eventual overtime win, then making a series of red zone stops in a wild 38-33 win over Florida. SP+ has liked the Vols since the preseason, and I've slowly bought in as well.
Not that any of that matters against this schedule. The Vols take on LSU in Death Valley this weekend, then host Alabama on Oct. 15 and Kentucky on Oct. 29 before heading to Athens to face the defending national champions Nov. 5. Tennessee could very well finish in the SP+ top 10 this fall, but even a top-10 team might end up 9-3 against this slate.
5. Clemson
SP+ and FPI rankings: 18th and 5th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 9.5% (last week: 6.8%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated NC State 30-20. The Tigers' defense sacked Devin Leary three times and allowed just 279 total yards, and DJ Uiagalelei combined a steady 209 passing yards with two short-yardage rushing touchdowns. Clemson slowly pulled away from the Pack, leading by 17 before a late State score.
Why they're ranked here: The Tigers are in an interesting place at the moment. Their defense struggled against both Louisiana Tech and Wake Forest but came together last week; their offense has battled inconsistency but is now up to 16th in points per drive thanks in part to good field position and great red zone production. My SP+ ratings don't trust them because they aren't really dominating a weak ACC landscape, but their odds of running the table are obviously increasing by the day.
They have two tricky road trips remaining -- at Florida State on Oct. 15, at Notre Dame on Nov. 5 -- but should be favored by double digits in all other regular-season games.
4. Michigan
SP+ and FPI rankings: 4th and 4th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 13.0% (last week: 10.1%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Iowa 27-14. Iowa had won five of its past seven home games against top-five teams, but Michigan slowly but steadily put the Hawkeyes away thanks to Blake Corum's 133 rushing yards, J.J. McCarthy's safe passing and wins in all three of the game's fourth-down attempts.
Why they're ranked here: Fourth in the computers, fourth in the polls, fourth here. There's still a gap between the top three teams and everyone else, but Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have come the closest to closing the gap. While their nonconference slate was marshmallow-laden, it says something that Michigan is seventh in both points and points allowed per drive. And McCarthy has made Harbaugh's risky quarterback change worthwhile thus far.
A huge Oct. 15 home game against Penn State looms, and of course the Nov. 26 battle at Ohio State will go a long way toward determining both rivals' CFP hopes, but Michigan is looking very good.
3. Georgia
SP+ and FPI rankings: 3rd and 3rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 24.9% (last week: 27.7%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Missouri 26-22. The Dawgs let the host Tigers ease out to a 13-0 lead and still trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter. But when it was time to come back, they did so. Short-yardage touchdowns by Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards gave the Dawgs the winning margin.
Why they're ranked here: I had Georgia at No. 1 on this list last week, but it's getting hard to ignore that Ohio State and Alabama have mostly rounded into form despite injuries and Georgia has underachieved against the spread by a combined 56 points in the past two weeks. The receiving corps is banged up, and the turnovers fairy has been unkind (they fumbled four times in those two games and lost all four), but ... 56 points is a lot.
Kirby Smart's squad has a chance to get right with home games against Auburn and Vanderbilt, so maybe the Dawgs will hit their stride by the homestretch. But they're No. 3 for now.
2. Ohio State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 2nd and 2nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 27.2% (last week: 23.5%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Rutgers 49-10. The Buckeyes were missing two all-world skill corps guys (RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and spotted Rutgers an early 7-0 lead thanks in part to a muffed punt. But Miyan Williams rushed for 189 yards and five scores, and Ohio State cruised regardless.
Why they're ranked here: The Buckeyes have gotten a total of 354 yards from Henderson and Smith-Njigba this year, and they're still first in the nation in points per drive because Williams, receivers Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. and tight end Cade Stover all are world class.
They've won their past four games by an average score of 56-16, and they've overachieved SP+ projections by an average of 17 points per game over the past three weeks. Without two of the best players in the country. What the heck happens if or when this team is actually healthy?
1. Alabama
SP+ and FPI rankings: 1st and 1st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 22.5% (last week: 17.4%)
What they did in Week 5: defeated Arkansas 49-26. This game had such a strange flow to it. The Tide were up 14-0 when Bryce Young was lost for the game with a shoulder sprain, then quickly scored twice more with backup Jalen Milroe. Arkansas went on a 23-0 run to light up the Razorback Stadium crowd, but then Jahmyr Gibbs put the game away with touchdown runs of 72 and 76 yards.
Why they're ranked here: The Tide's Heisman-winning quarterback missed 2½ quarters, and they outscored a top-20 team on the road without him. Milroe was explosive if inconsistent (4-for-9 for 65 yards and a touchdown, plus six carries for 91 yards), but the Tide kept their heads and not only won but covered. That's a pretty good sign of the talent Nick Saban is working with here.
Young's injury status remains unclear, and the challenges certainly are just beginning for Bama: Each of its next five opponents rank 23rd or better in SP+ -- and Texas A&M, the Tide's next opponent, ranks sixth on defense -- so any time Young misses will require Milroe to come through against major competition. Maybe that catches up to them at some point ... or maybe the Tide roll regardless. History suggests the latter.