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College football bowl projections after Week 5: Playoff, New Year's Six matchups

For a while, it looked like we might have some good ol' fashioned chaos with Saturday's college football results, but eventually things settled down and there wasn't a whole of movement at the top of the class.

Georgia survived a serious scare against Missouri, and Alabama seems to have survived a scare of a different sort with quarterback Bryce Young's shoulder injury. Ohio State and Michigan marched along, and Clemson outmuscled NC State in a battle of ACC unbeatens. A little further down the pecking order, Ole Miss handed Kentucky its first loss, while USC, Penn State and Oklahoma State remained unbeaten.

What does it all mean for the bowl picture? ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are back with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups and which teams helped and hurt their causes the most over the weekend.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Alabama

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Clemson

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Georgia

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: Missouri came this close from throwing a major wrinkle into this whole exercise, but Georgia's ability to pull out the win preserved the status quo for another week. All of the major contenders have had at least one week in which their credibility was called somewhat into question, which makes it easier to give Georgia a mulligan for looking mortal. Alabama's primary concern is Bryce Young's health.

Ohio State continues to look good and will finally play on the road next week against Michigan State. The Big Ten still figures to get only one team in, and while the Buckeyes seem like the best bet, Michigan and Penn State are both right there.

Clemson, for another week, gets the edge over USC (and UCLA) and the Big 12 is where it gets fun. Any undefeated Power 5 team should be, by default, in the playoff conversation at this point, and Kansas meets that criteria (along with Oklahoma State and TCU).

Schlabach: I dropped defending national champion Georgia below Alabama and Ohio State in my seedings, after the Bulldogs struggled for the second week in a row against an inferior opponent. The Bulldogs were very fortunate to escape Missouri with a 26-22 victory Saturday night. They had two more turnovers, after losing the ball three times the previous week in a 39-22 win against Kent State. Georgia has looked sloppy and needs to get some injured receivers back for its offense to fire on all cylinders.

Alabama lost reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young to a sprained shoulder but still pulled away from Arkansas 49-26 on the road. Young's health might ultimately determine whether the Tide stay in the CFP hunt. Ohio State rolled past Rutgers 49-10 and looked unstoppable on offense again. The Buckeyes surrendered only 74 yards passing and 107 yards on the ground. Clemson is my No. 4 team after the Tigers defeated a ranked opponent for the second straight week, beating NC State 30-20 at Death Valley.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Penn State

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee

Schlabach's team that helped its cause the most

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys look like the Big 12's best CFP threat after knocking off Baylor 36-25 on the road. Quarterback Spencer Sanders hadn't played great against the Bears during his career, but he did this time, going 20-for-29 for 181 yards with two touchdowns (one in the air, one on the ground). The Pokes still face four tricky conference road games at TCU, Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma.


Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: TCU vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Oregon vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. USC
Schlabach: Michigan vs. USC


Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rice vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: UTEP vs. Kent State

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Rice

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. UCF
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Memphis

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: North Texas vs. San Diego State

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington vs. Air Force
Schlabach: California vs. Air Force

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oregon vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Arkansas

Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Middle Tennessee vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Troy vs. Wyoming

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. UAB
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee State

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Kent State
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Texas vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: UAB vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Kansas vs. UCF

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Army vs. SMU
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Oregon State

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Houston
Schlabach: Liberty vs. UTSA

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Boise State

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Buffalo

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: California vs. BYU
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Marshall

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. SMU

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Iowa

Schlabach's team whose stock took the biggest hit

Oklahoma: It's too early to hit the panic button on Brent Venables' tenure at Oklahoma, but back-to-back losses to Kansas State and TCU surely knocked the Sooners out of the Big 12 title hunt. Venables was a celebrated defensive coordinator at Clemson, but his first OU unit is one of the worst in the FBS. The Sooners have surrendered 96 points and 1,377 yards of offense in their past two games. In Saturday's loss to TCU, the Horned Frogs had four touchdowns of 62 yards or more. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel's health is also a concern after he suffered a concussion on a nasty late hit.


Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Houston

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Florida
Schlabach: TCU vs. Texas A&M

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Washington State

Bonagura's team that helped itself the most

UCLA. At 4-0, the Bruins came into the week viewed as somewhat a product of their schedule. It was a logical conclusion with a one-point win against South Alabama on the résumé, but after a decisive win against surging Washington, UCLA looks more like a Pac-12 title contender. With Utah and Oregon up next, we'll find out soon if the Bruins are for real.


TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Texas vs. Mississippi State

Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Duke vs. Maryland
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Illinois

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Kansas State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Utah
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Utah

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Indiana
Schlabach: Miami vs. Purdue

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Washington

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Florida

Bonagura's team whose stock took the biggest hit

Kentucky: Undefeated, ranked No. 7, no Alabama on the schedule -- things were set up nicely for Kentucky to pursue a historic season. And maybe that can still happen, but the Wildcats' 22-19 loss to Ole Miss derailed things for now.


Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Toledo
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Miami (Ohio)

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Maryland vs. LSU

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. LSU
Schlabach: NC State vs. Kentucky

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Ole Miss