For more than three quarters Saturday night, it looked as if the top four in the College Football Playoff chase would finally get an honest-to-goodness shake-up, as Georgia trailed Mizzou for the majority of what should have been a ho-hum SEC East game.
Instead, the defending national champs escaped -- yes escaped -- the now 2-3 Tigers with a win. It was the second straight Saturday that Georgia struggled against an unranked opponent, as they beat Kent State 39-22 in Week 4.
The Bulldogs are still favored to win the East. They're still a top-four team. Their ability to plow their way through the entire schedule as easily as they dismantled Oregon in the season opener, though, is now a question. So is finishing the season undefeated. While Georgia caused a stir even in its win, there were five games featuring two ranked opponents this weekend that had a direct impact on the CFP race:
No. 2 Alabama 49, No. 20 Arkansas 26
What it means for Alabama: Until proven otherwise, the Tide are still the team to beat in the SEC West -- even with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner sidelined with a sprained shoulder. Alabama relied on its running game and got itself out of trouble as quickly as it fell into it Saturday, and did it without Bryce Young. On the road. Against a gritty SEC West opponent.
The question is how long they will have to sustain it without Young.
"I think he's OK," coach Nick Saban said. "He doesn't have a serious injury. We didn't think he could go back in the game today because I didn't think he had much steam on throwing the ball. He's had these before, and in a few days he starts to respond pretty well, so we'll just have to see how it goes. Day-to-day."
Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for a career-high 206 yards -- including 194 after Young left the game in the second quarter. Alabama continues to find different ways to win, including twice on the road against Power 5 opponents that were ranked at the time (Texas and Arkansas). Those games, though, also have exposed some vulnerabilities. Saban pointed to mistakes in the kicking game, and the defense's inability to make stops on third down in the third quarter, but said the errors are "all fixable." While ESPN's FPI projects Alabama to win each of its remaining games, none of them will be easy, especially if Young is sidelined for an extended period. As long as Alabama can stay undefeated or finish with just one loss, the Tide can hang onto its spot in the top four.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Alabama entered the game with an 84.5% chance to reach the playoff, the highest in the country. It improved to 86.3% with the win.
What it means for Arkansas: Maybe next year? The Hogs have lost back-to-back games against SEC West opponents.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Arkansas wasn't listed among the 35 teams with a chance to make the CFP before the game.
No. 5 Clemson 30, No. 10 NC State 20
What it means for Clemson: The Tigers are without a doubt the ACC's best hope at a CFP semifinal and are firmly in the lead to win the ACC's Atlantic Division. With back-to-back wins against Wake Forest and NC State, Clemson beat the two toughest teams in its division, but the Tigers should remain wary of their Oct. 15 road trip to Florida State. The Seminoles are already playing from behind in the division, though, after losing at home to Wake Forest on Saturday. Clemson also travels to Notre Dame on Nov. 5, and it remains a critical component of the Tigers' playoff résumé. If USC has the same record as Clemson, and they are both conference champions, who gets in if there's a debate for the last spot? The selection committee would certainly consider the Irish as a common opponent.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Clemson entered the game with a 43.5% chance to reach the CFP, and that rose to 49.6% with the win.
What it means for NC State: The Wolfpack needs Clemson to lose twice in order to get back into the Atlantic Division race, which doesn't seem likely. It's a disappointing position for coach Dave Doeren, as this team was billed to be the best in his tenure there.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: NC State entered the game with a .2% chance to reach the playoff and dropped to less than 0.1% with the loss.
No. 14 Ole Miss 22, No. 7 Kentucky 19
Kentucky's touchdown is called back because of an illegal shift, and the Wildcats fumble on the next play to seal the win for Ole Miss.
What it means for Ole Miss: The Rebels are 5-0 for the first time since 2014 and inching closer to legitimizing their playoff hopes but need to play better against tougher competition. Ole Miss entered Saturday ranked No. 122 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN's FPI. The win against Kentucky was the start of improving that résumé, as it was the Rebels' first win against a ranked opponent and second against a Power 5 opponent -- the other being embattled Georgia Tech.
Ole Miss should be undefeated heading into its Oct. 22 game at LSU, and it's going to need to be, because four of its next seven games are against ranked SEC teams, including Texas A&M, Alabama and Arkansas in a three-game stretch beginning at the end of October. Beating Kentucky in a crossover game was important because it gives Ole Miss some much-needed wiggle room, and a loss would have been devastating to any playoff hopes, but the Rebels still have much to prove.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: With the win, the Rebels' chances of reaching the semifinals increased from 6% to 6.4%.
What it means for Kentucky: The Wildcats didn't look like a playoff sleeper, let alone a contender, and if they don't fix some glaring issues, any hopes at a New Year's Six bowl bid will also be squashed. Kentucky's offensive line entered the game having allowed 16 sacks this season -- the most in the Power 5 and third-most in the FBS -- and Ole Miss added three more. The Wildcats deserve credit for their gritty performance, especially with quarterback Will Levis taking some significant hits and dislocating his finger at one point, but they need to beat Georgia and Tennessee to win the SEC East, which seems farfetched.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Kentucky now has less than a 0.1% chance to reach the playoff.
No. 9 Oklahoma State 36, No. 16 Baylor 25
What it means for Oklahoma State: The Cowboys reset the pecking order in the Big 12 when they knocked off the defending conference champs in a rematch of the Big 12 title game. They are one of three undefeated teams left in the Big 12, along with TCU and ... Kansas!?! TCU and Kansas will play each other Saturday. The Big 12 is one of the more entertaining Power 5 races this season -- and we're not even talking about blue bloods Oklahoma and Texas. The good news for the Big 12 (especially looking ahead) is that the conference co-founders aren't the league's only hope at a semifinalist. Oklahoma State was in the mix last year. TCU and Baylor had a chance in the CFP's inaugural year. If the Big 12 has an undefeated conference champion -- or a one-loss team that looks the part -- it will be considered, regardless of the colors on their uniforms.
Of course, the unpredictable nature of the conference race also makes it more difficult to survive unscathed. The Baylor game was Oklahoma State's first test of the season. On Oct. 15, the Cowboys are at TCU, and back-to-back trips to K-State (Oct. 29) and Kansas (Nov. 5) aren't gimmes, either. Oklahoma State is under pressure to continue to win and look good doing it, because the nonconference wins against Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas Pine-Bluff won't help the Cowboys win a debate.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: The Cowboys increased their playoff chances from 0.7% to 6.1%.
What it means for Baylor: The two-loss Bears can still win the Big 12, but that's likely their ceiling, given their nonconference wins are against Albany and Texas State. A two-loss team has never made the CFP, and while it's not impossible, it would be hard for the committee to justify.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Baylor entered the game with a 2.7% chance to reach the CFP and sank to less than 0.1% after the loss.
No. 22 Wake Forest 31, No. 23 Florida State 21
What it means for Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons need help to win the ACC's Atlantic Division -- Clemson has to lose twice -- which seems unlikely now that the Tigers beat NC State on Saturday. That means Wake Forest is an afterthought in the CFP discussion. Even if the Deacs finish as a one-loss team, it will be hard for the selection committee to deem them "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country without a win against Clemson.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Wake Forest didn't enter Saturday ranked among the 35 teams with a chance to reach the CFP, but it snuck in following the win at less than .1%.
What it means for Florida State: As encouraging as the Sept. 4 win against LSU was en route to a 4-0 start, the Seminoles aren't ready to return to the national conversation if they can't win the Atlantic Division. It's still possible -- especially with an Oct. 15 home game against Clemson -- but FSU is now looking up at Wake Forest in the standings.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: FSU entered the game with a 2.4% chance to reach the CFP. It dropped to 0.1%.