On both television and Twitter on Saturday, we saw a pretty definitive shift in sentiment: Yes, Georgia still might be the best team in the country, but following an utterly ruthless performance against Michigan State, you might call Ohio State a co-No. 1 when it comes to current quality.
If you've been following SP+ from week to week this season, you know that it's been telling you that for a while. The Buckeyes briefly caught the Dawgs for the No. 1 spot a few weeks ago before dropping back to No. 2 following less-than-perfect performances against Penn State and Nebraska. But Saturday's brilliance pushed Ohio State back up the chart a bit -- UGA and OSU are now virtually tied atop the SP+ rankings, with Georgia sporting a 33.33 rating to Ohio State's 33.25. Georgia's No. 1 in defense, and Ohio State's No. 1 in offense and special teams.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
It is, as always, important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. It is a look at how teams should likely perform moving forward.
Below the top two, we saw quite a few teams make slight movement. Michigan's easy win over Maryland pushed the Wolverines ahead of Wisconsin into the No. 4 spot, and a combination of factors -- a further decrease in the weight of priors, solid opponent performances and an as-dominant-as-expected win over Prairie View A&M -- bumped Texas A&M from eighth to fifth. (Nos. 5-8 are separated by less than two points.) Pitt fell slightly, too, which allowed Oklahoma back into the top 10. There were no massive changes, but there were lots of little ones.
Largest jumps
Seven teams managed to jump at least 10 spots this week:
Boise State: up 16 spots from 48th to 32nd
Appalachian State: up 14 spots from 40th to 26th
Western Kentucky: up 14 spots from 55th to 41st
Cal: up 11 spots from 73rd to 62nd
Tulsa: up 11 spots from 79th to 68th
Tennessee: up 10 spots from 24th to 14th
Oregon State: up 10 spots from 57th to 47th
Largest stumbles
Eight teams managed to fall at least 10 spots, six by at least 14:
SMU: down 17 spots from 33rd to 50th
Michigan State: down 16 spots from 18th to 34th
Liberty: down 16 spots from 36th to 52nd
Maryland: down 14 spots from 56th to 70th
USC: down 14 spots from 58th to 72nd
Syracuse: down 14 spots from 65th to 79th
Virginia Tech: down 13 spots from 44th to 57th
Northwestern: down 11 spots from 88th to 99th
Résumé SP+
Each week for the rest of the season, I'll also share my résumé SP+ ratings. I look at how SP+ would project the average top-five team -- crafted from a literal average of the top five SP+ ratings -- to perform against a given team's schedule, and I compare that to a team's actual results. Your scoring margin minus this projected scoring margin equals your résumé SP+ rating.
Résumé SP+ is an attempt to look at how frequently teams are posting top-five-caliber results and emphasize that how you play should matter as much as or more than who. This week's top 10:
Oh, what could have been for Penn State this season if not for quarterback injuries (and resulting uncertainty). Pitt, too, if not for two gut-wrenching, tight losses.
I've found that taking résumé SP+ and adding a seven-point penalty for each loss is as close as I can get to a formula that replicates how my brain thinks the CFP rankings should go. It's a solid way of combining how you have performed with the simple fact that losses should matter. Here's the loss-adjusted résumé SP+ top 10:
