Ohio State was projected fourth in the preseason SP+ ratings, 5.2 points from No. 1 Alabama. The Buckeyes had some key players to replace on both sides of the ball, and a defense that had been shaky at times in 2020 was projected just 27th overall.
Two weeks into the season, after a frustrating win over Minnesota and a loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes had fallen only to fifth, but their defense was down to 39th, and they were nearly eight points away from No. 1. They were still clearly good -- especially on offense, where they still had more upside than anyone in FBS -- but in a conference that featured three other top-10 teams, their odds of winning out weren't great. They were teetering in the national title race.
Fast-forward six more weeks. The Buckeyes have looked utterly spectacular for four straight games. Granted, they played the teams currently ranked 33rd, 56th, 65th and 127th in SP+, but they beat them by an average score of 58-11. They are an easy No. 1 in offensive SP+ -- the second-place offense is 4.5 points behind theirs -- and their defense has rebounded to 20th.
This, combined with the second-best special teams unit in the country, has driven a change atop this week's overall SP+ ratings. Despite Georgia's overall dominance, the advantage the Buckeyes have crafted over the field on offense has pushed them to No. 1. On a neutral field, SP+ would favor them by 0.6 points over Kirby Smart's 7-0 Dawgs. Can't imagine many of us saw that coming as Oregon was putting away that Week 2 win.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
It is, as always, important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. It is a look at how teams should likely perform moving forward.
Ohio State aside, the biggest move of the week was a non-move, really. Despite a loss at Pitt on Saturday, and despite continued offensive ineptitude, Clemson remains No. 4 overall. SP+ still sees the Tigers as the most likely team, outside of the top three, to play elite ball moving forward.
That's surprising and, frankly, a little off-putting, but it bears mentioning that Clemson's overall SP+ rating has fallen pretty steadily through the weeks. Thee Tigers are getting propped up by positive preseason projections and a defense that remains excellent, but their rating of 21.6 -- meaning, SP+ sees them as 21.6 points per game better than the average FBS team -- is down a full touchdown from the start of the season and sank by nearly two points following the loss to Pitt. The problem is that no one rose to catch them. Florida was on bye, and two other top-10 teams (Penn State and Oklahoma) sank after poor performances. Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas A&M and, yes, Pitt are all within shouting distance but haven't quite made up all the ground yet. There is no obvious fourth-best team in the country, so SP+ is evidently defaulting to the incumbent. For now.
Biggest jumps
As sample sizes grow, big leaps become more difficult. Only two teams rose by at least 10 spots this week, both from the ACC:
Florida State: up 18 spots from 50th to 32nd
Louisville: up 18 spots from 53rd to 35th
Virginia Tech: up nine spots from 52nd to 43rd
California: up nine spots from 84th to 75th
FSU obliterated UMass to continue its rise -- the Seminoles were 73rd just four weeks ago -- while Louisville handled its business well against Boston College.
Biggest stumbles
Six teams managed to fall by at least 10 spots:
Utah: down 13 spots from 26th to 39th
Boston College: down 12 spots from 43rd to 55th
Bowling Green: down 11 spots from 111th to 122nd
Toledo: down 11 spots from 72nd to 83rd
Indiana: down 10 spots from 46th to 56th
UCLA: down 10 spots from 37th to 47th
Utah had just begun to look trustworthy but couldn't keep up with a prolific Oregon State on Saturday. Meanwhile, per the stat sheet, UCLA was extremely lucky to lose to Oregon by only three and fell accordingly.
These teams' recent stumbles mean that the Pac-12 currently has only one SP+ top-25 team. Its average rating is 3.2, closer to that of the AAC (-0.7) than the nearest power conference (the Big 12, at 8.5). It's been an abysmal season out west -- far worse than normal, actually -- which is a bit of a surprise considering how experienced the Pac-12's teams were heading into this year. Oregon could still give the conference its first CFP team since 2016, but the Ducks' own recent performances (namely, dreadful performances against both Stanford in a narrow loss and Cal in a narrow win) give reason to doubt that they can win out and finish 12-1.
