While things seem as uncertain as ever in the college football polls, with as many ranked teams losing per week as ever before, on paper we're starting to see wheat separating from chaff. In this week's SP+ ratings, the No. 2 and No. 4 teams in FBS are separated by 6.3 points -- nearly the same distance that separates No. 4 from No. 14 and No. 16 from No. 43. We know who the best teams should be moving forward, even if only one top team has managed to avoid a defeat so far.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
It is, as always, important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. It is a look at how teams should likely perform moving forward.
Once again, the most noteworthy rankings near the top are for teams that have barely moved at all. Clemson remains No. 4 after an unimpressive win at Syracuse, Florida remains No. 5 after a loss to LSU, and Wisconsin remains No. 7 after nearly getting Army'd in Camp Randall on Saturday night.
To different degrees, these three teams are getting propped up by their preseason numbers, which continue to make up nearly 50% of a team's SP+ ratings through 6-7 games. Clemson's raw, 2021-only numbers, for instance, obviously do not warrant a No. 5 overall ranking, just as Florida and Wisconsin have spent a good chunk of their seasons playing at a level that does not befit a top-10 team. But the Tigers and Badgers have played great defense, the Gators have been mostly awesome (if glitchy) on offense, and all three are benefiting from the simple fact that an obvious No. 4 team has in no way emerged.
On to the teams that actually did move in week 7.
Biggest jumps
Ten teams moved up by at least 10 spots this week.
Texas Tech (up 15 spots from 64th to 49th)
Virginia (up 14 spots from 45th to 31st)
LSU (up 13 spots from 58th to 45th)
Indiana (up 13 spots from 59th to 46th)
NC State (up 12 spots from 37th to 25th)
Memphis (up 11 spots from 79th to 68th)
Colorado (up 11 spots from 106th to 95th)
South Alabama (up 11 spots from 110th to 99th)
Auburn (up 10 spots from 19th to 29th)
Minnesota (up 10 spots from 38th to 28th)
Florida didn't sink much after losing a tossup to LSU, but LSU did rise -- it's the sixth time the Tigers have either risen or fallen by double-digit places this season, which honestly befits what we've seen from this amazingly inconsistent team.
Biggest stumbles
Seven teams fell by at least 10 spots as well.
Appalachian State (down 23 spots from 41st to 64th)
Liberty (down 16 spots from 20th to 36th)
San Diego State (down 12 spots from 42nd to 54th)
BYU (down 12 spots from 43rd to 55th)
UCF (down 10 spots from 53rd to 63rd)
Missouri (down 10 spots from 66th to 76th)
Kent State (down 10 spots from 91st to 101st)
What an absolute, midweek dud from App State this week. The Mountaineers trailed Louisiana 20-3 after one quarter and never really rallied, losing, 41-13. It was a dreadful performance from a team that seemed like it could give Coastal Carolina a big run this coming Wednesday. (Of course, if App State is like LSU, the Mountaineers will turn around and pull an upset.)
