As compelling as their paths were just to reach the College Football Playoff, the four semifinal teams' respective paths to the championship are the paramount concern now.
With that in mind, this final edition of a four-part series covers what the Clemson Tigers need to do to successfully navigate their way to the title. (The case for the No. 4-ranked Oklahoma Sooners can be found here, the case for No. 3 Michigan State can be found here and the case for No. 2 Alabama can be found here.)
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, the metrics referenced below are from games against Power 5 opponents and the rankings indicate placement among the 65 Power 5 teams or qualifying players from those teams.)
Blitzing is a must against Oklahoma
The Tigers open their playoff slate by facing Oklahoma in the Capital One Orange Bowl. The Sooners are the only CFP team to average more points per game than Clemson (45.6 for Oklahoma, 37.3 for Clemson), so preventing a back-and-forth, high-scoring game should be at or near the top of the Tigers' priority list in this matchup.
That will leave the Oklahoma passing attack as the focal point for the Clemson defense. Not blitzing Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield doesn't appear to be an option, as Mayfield ranks second in yards per attempt on vertical passes when he hasn't faced a blitz (15.6 yards on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield).
That number plummets to 10.9 vertical yards per attempt when a blitz is sent. Mayfield's overall production also drops when he is under duress or hit on a play, as his 7.8 Total QBR in those situations ties for 27th among Power 5 quarterbacks.
It isn't just a matter of slowing down the production on pass attempts, as the Sooners' offense has proved to be fairly ineffective at pass-blocking when facing blitzes. Oklahoma ranks tied for 56th in sack percentage allowed on blitz plays (12.9 percent).
This all should not be a problem for a Clemson defense that had the fifth-highest blitz percentage against passing plays this season (37.9 percent). If this approach works as it looks like it should, the Tigers will be able to keep the Sooners' passing attack in check and keep this game from turning into a shootout.
A change from the norm if facing Alabama
As tempting as it will be for Clemson to continue to lean heavily on the high-risk/high-reward blitz approach against Alabama, there are many factors that seem to call for a much more conservative defensive game plan in this potential matchup.
Tops on this list is that the Tigers shouldn't need to blitz to hold their own against Alabama's rushing attack.
Clemson did have 21 rushing plays during which its defense blitzed and the play gained zero or negative yardage (second best among Power 5 teams), but the Tigers' defense also racked up 112 rushing plays of zero or negative yards on plays during which it didn't blitz. To put that latter mark into perspective, consider that one team registered more overall rushing plays (blitz or no blitz) of zero or negative yards (Boston College, 123). This indicates Clemson doesn't need the blitz to stop the opposing team's ground game.
Blitzing also doesn't work as well against dink-and-dunk passing offenses, and there may not be a more dink-and-dunk aerial attack in college football than the one Alabama uses.
Crimson Tide quarterback Jake Coker has the highest percentage of passes that travel zero or negative yards downfield (42.2 percent). He also has the lowest percentage of passes that travel 5 or fewer yards (42.5 percent) and ranks tied for 55th in passes traveling 10 or more yards (28 percent). He's next to last in aerials 15 or more yards downfield (16.4 percent) and 58th in passes thrown 20 or more yards (8.6 percent).
Since Alabama is so reliant on short passes, the approach here should be to use that mindset against it and force the Crimson Tide's potential scoring drives to take 10 or more plays.
Closing out drives of that caliber has been a major weakness for Alabama this season. It had 20 drives that took 10 or more plays and scored only four touchdowns on those possessions. That total ranked lowest among the 33 Power 5 teams that had at least 17 10-play drives this season.
Making matters worse is that the Crimson Tide generated only nine field goals on those 10-play drives and had seven of them result in no points. This means Alabama has an offense that isn't designed to put together long drives, so Clemson should do everything it can to keep the Crimson Tide's pass-catchers underneath defensive coverage and thus force Alabama to have to generate drives of 10 or more plays in order to score. That may mean a significant cutback on the volume of blitzes the Tigers call for, yet the tradeoff here should make that strategy pay off handsomely.
Michigan State's offense is a one-trick pony
Michigan State's offense has been exceptionally adept on stretch vertical passes (defined as aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield). Spartans quarterback Connor Cook has a 97.9 Total QBR on these types of attempts, ranking second in that category.
The bad news for the Spartans is this is the only thing their offense does consistently well.
Clemson's powerful rush defense should be able to hold down the fort versus a Michigan State ground attack that placed 46th in rushes that tallied 5 or more yards (35.5 percent) and tied for 40th in rushes that gained 10 or more yards (44).
The Spartans are also quite poor at short passing (defined as targets that travel 10 or fewer yards downfield), as Cook rates 40th in short pass Total QBR (53.9) and 48th in short pass completion percentage (61.6).
One contributing factor to this lack of short pass production is that Michigan State's pass-catchers have turned only four short passes into gains of 20 or more yards, a total that ranks tied for 52nd.
All of these elements point toward keeping the Spartans from hitting long passes. Since Clemson ranks tied for 54th on completions of 20 or more yards allowed when blitzing on stretch vertical passes (seven) and tied for 58th on completions of 20-plus yards when blitzing on vertical throws (10), it would seem prudent to not send additional rushers and make Michigan State's offense travel via a much lower-percentage route.