As compelling as their paths were just to reach the College Football Playoff, the four semifinal teams' respective paths to the championship is the paramount concern now.
With that in mind, this second of a four-part series covers what the Michigan State Spartans need to do to successfully navigate their way to the title. (The first part that covered the case for the No. 4-ranked Oklahoma Sooners can be found here).
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, the metrics referenced below are from games against Power 5 opponents and the rankings indicate placement among the 65 Power 5 teams or qualifying players from those clubs.)
How the Spartans can defeat Alabama
The Spartans open their playoff slate against Alabama in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic.
Alabama's defense rightfully receives the bulk of the Spartans' attention, as that platoon ranks fourth in points allowed per game (17.1), second in yards allowed per game (285.5) and first in points allowed per drive (1.1).
As powerful as that group is, the Crimson Tide's offense ranks 19th in points per game (31.6), so the Spartans must go into this matchup with the idea that they are going to have to hit some big plays.
There is good news in this area, as Alabama's secondary has experienced more than a few issues in stopping opponents' passing games this season. The Crimson Tide rank tied for 45th in passing plays allowed of 20 or more yards (36), tied for 31st in pass plays of 30 or more (14) and tied for 56th in pass plays of 40 or more (10).
One player the Spartans may want to target in this respect is Alabama defensive back Marlon Humphrey. According to STATS, LLC, Humphrey ranked tied for 67th in yards per attempt (8.2) among the 86 FBS defensive backs who saw 60 or more targets thrown their way this season.
How the Spartans can defeat Clemson
Clemson has a powerhouse offense and tough defense, but might have the worst special teams in college football.
The Tigers had abysmal numbers in ESPN Stats & Information's special teams expected points added (STEPA) metric. This statistic uses a "points added" framework to measure the scoreboard impact of special teams plays.
Clemson had a negative showing in this metric in all but three contests this season and hasn't had a positive number in a game since Week 6. The Tigers' minus-28.5 STEPA for the season was worse than all other clubs and made them one of only two teams to finish at minus-20 or lower.
Michigan State was a bit unsteady in this area to start the season, but from Week 8 to the end of the regular season, the Spartans ranked 10th (16.2).
The combination of these two trends could turn into as many as seven points for the Spartans, which could be enough to vault this club to an upset in what would otherwise appear to be a very even matchup.
How the Spartans can defeat Oklahoma
Blitz early and often.
It's really difficult to find any area where the Sooners have a notable weakness outside of how their offense fares against the blitz.
Oklahoma's pass protection has struggled in this area, allowing a sack on 12.9 percent of blitz attempts by the opposing team. That mark ranks tied for 55th.
The blitz can also be used to slow down Oklahoma's rushing attack, as the Sooners had 13 rushing plays gain zero or negative yards against the blitz. That total ranked tied for 55th.
The issue in sending extra players after the Sooners is that even though they struggle at times against this tactic, OU has not thrown an interception when facing a blitz. The Sooners also tallied three rushes of 10 or more yards on the 27 occasions when they faced a rush blitz, tying them for ninth.
The good news for Michigan State is that its defense fared quite well when blitzing this season. The Spartans' 39.6 percent pressure rate (a measure of how often a quarterback is sacked, under duress or hit) on blitz plays ranked 12th, and their 28.9 percent quarterback contact rate (how often they hit the quarterback) ranks 11th.
The Spartans also could end the Sooners' interception-free streak against blitzes, as Michigan State's 5.0 percent interception rate on blitzes ranks seventh.