As compelling as the path the four College Football Playoff teams took to get to the postseason was, their respective paths to the championship is the paramount concern for these programs now.
With that in mind, this is the first of a four-part series covering what each of these teams needs to do to successfully navigate its way to the national championship. The series will start with the club ranked No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings, the Oklahoma Sooners.
(Note: Unless other specified, the metrics referenced below are from games against Power 5 opponents and the rankings indicate placement among the 65 Power 5 teams or qualifying players from those clubs.)
How the Sooners can defeat Clemson
Oklahoma opens the playoff by facing Clemson in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl.
The Sooners' formula in this contest should be fairly straightforward: Make Clemson's offense try to keep pace with Oklahoma's high-powered attack.
This may sound like something the Tigers are capable of doing, but this is an area where Oklahoma has fared a lot better than Clemson, in large part because of the strength of their respective conferences.
The ACC ranks fourth among the Power 5 conferences in ESPN's offensive Expected Points Added metric. This statistic quantifies an offense's performance versus a par performance bar and is thus able to identify which platoons are playing better than expected. What this means is that the ACC's offenses played well below their expected performance level this season.
This shows up in Clemson's schedule via it having played only one opponent that ranks in the top 25 in offensive Expected Points Added this season, that being a North Carolina club that posted 37 points against the Tigers in the ACC Championship game.
Oklahoma has a lot more experience here, as the Sooners have faced four Big 12 teams that rank in the top 15 in offensive Expected Points Added (Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU) and defeated all four of those clubs by a combined score of 195-113.
These are all factors that explain why ESPN's Football Power Index currently gives the Sooners a 62.9 percent chance of winning this contest.
How the Sooners can defeat Alabama
Alabama's defense has one of the most impressive statistical collections in college football. The Crimson Tide rank third nationally in points allowed per game (14.4), first in rushing yards allowed per game (74.0) and second in yards allowed per game (258.2).
One rare area where they have not fared well this year is in defending stretch vertical passes, which are passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield. Alabama ranks 56th in stretch vertical Total QBR this year (91.8) and has actually trended worse in this area as the season progressed, as its 97.3 stretch vertical Total QBR in November and December games ranked tied for 59th.
This is a major part of why the Crimson Tide rank tied for 45th in passing plays allowed of 20 or more yards (36), tied for 31st in pass plays of 30 or more yards allowed (14), and tied for 56th in pass plays allowed of 40 or more yards (10).
Fortunately for Oklahoma, this is an area where it excels on offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks 10th in stretch vertical Total QBR (94.9), tied for fourth in stretch vertical touchdowns (8) and 13th in stretch vertical yards (634) this season.
Another positive stretch vertical aspect for the Sooners is that Mayfield threw stretch vertical completions to five different receivers and had stretch vertical touchdown passes to four different receivers. That will make it very difficult for Alabama to stop this via coverage concentration on one receiver.
How the Sooners can defeat Michigan State
Stretch vertical passing could also be the key to defeating the Spartans.
Similar to Alabama, Michigan State's defense ranked 48th in stretch vertical Total QBR this season (84.7) and trended downward in November and December (92.0, ranked 54th).
An additional negative factor for the Spartans is that their offense is not set up to keep up in a stretch vertical oriented passing contest.
Connor Cook started the season on a tear in this area, as he ranked tied for first among Power 5 quarterbacks in stretch vertical Total QBR in September and October contests (99.6).
Since then his numbers have gone south in a significant way, as Cook ranked 28th in stretch vertical Total QBR in that time frame (72.6) and 35th in stretch vertical passing yards (158).
This is a major factor in Michigan State posting its bottom two and two of its bottom three season-long scoring totals when it posted 24, 17 and 16 points, respectively, against Maryland, Ohio State and Iowa. The Spartans barely won two of those contests and likely won't be able to win that type of game against the high-powered Sooners.