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NFL Week 6 betting nuggets

Tom Brady hasn't been an underdog in a game at home since 2014. Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports

For the first time all season, overs did not have a winning week last week -- they went 7-7. Overs are now 44-33 this season. The 57.1% clip is the highest through five weeks since 2011.

Here are the top things to know for each game in Week 6.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.


Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-1.5, 44.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Carolina is 3-0 straight up and ATS in its past three games.

• Chicago is 7-13 ATS since the start of the 2014 season when getting more than six days of rest.

• Chicago is an underdog despite its 4-1 record. Since 2015, underdogs with .800 or better winning percentages are 24-10-1 ATS from Week 4 on and 23-7-1 ATS in Weeks 4-16 (we're excluding Week 17, when teams may be resting their starters).

• Chicago is 7-14 ATS since the start of last season, tied for the worst mark in the NFL over that span.

Teddy Bridgewater is 30-9 ATS and 25-14 SU in his career as a starter. That 30-9 mark (.769) is the best in the Super Bowl era for a starting quarterback, minimum 15 starts.

Nick Foles is 5-9 ATS and SU as a road underdog in his career.

• Games with a total of 45 or lower are 17-11 to the over this season.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-8, 46.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Indianapolis is 38-19-1 ATS following a loss since the start of the 2012 season.

• Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season, tied for the second-best cover percentage over that span.

• Cincinnati has not won a road game straight up since the start of last season (0-10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS).

Philip Rivers is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite with Indianapolis. In the two seasons prior with Los Angeles (A) he was 2-10-1 ATS in that situation. Over that span, the under is 11-4.

Detroit Lions (-3, 54.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Detroit is 7-1 ATS coming off a bye since the start of the 2012 season.

• Detroit is 3-7 ATS on the road since the start of last season, tied for the worst mark in the NFL.

• Jacksonville is 2-8 ATS in October since the start of the 2018 season.

• Doug Marrone is 14-7-1 ATS as a home underdog as a head coach, including 7-5-1 ATS in Jacksonville in that situation.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 54.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Minnesota is 23-10-1 ATS over the past five seasons at home, the best mark in the NFL.

• Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in its four games versus Atlanta since the start of the 2014 season.

Kirk Cousins is 14-8 ATS as a favorite since joining the Vikings in 2018.

Matt Ryan is 7-11 ATS on the road over the past three seasons.

• Atlanta is 2-11 ATS in October since the start of the 2017 season, the second-worst cover percentage over that span.

• Teams that replace their head coaches midseason are 15-22 ATS in their first games with their new head coaches since 2000 (14-23 SU). Houston won and covered in its first game with Romeo Crennel last week.

Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-2.5, 43), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• In the past 35 seasons, when a team with an 0-5 or worse record is favored, the under is 12-6.

• Since 2017, New York (N) is 6-19-1 ATS at home (6-20 outright), including 2-4-1 ATS (3-4 outright) as a home favorite in that span.

• Washington is 2-12-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season.

• Washington is 5-14 ATS in division games since 2017.

• Games with a total of 45 or lower are 17-11 to the over this season.

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 47.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lamar Jackson is 8-0 outright and 6-0-2 ATS in his career as a road favorite. He is 16-9-2 ATS overall as a starter (23-4 SU).

• Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an outright loss.

• This is the first time Philadelphia is a home underdog of seven or more points since Week 17 of 2005.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 51), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games, although it upset Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog in its last road game in Week 4.

• Cleveland has covered in five of the past seven meetings, though it is 1-5-1 outright.

• Cleveland has won four straight games, with all four going over (covered past three). In its only outright loss (Week 1 at Baltimore), the game went under.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 53), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Houston is 13-5 ATS against Tennessee since the start of the 2011 season.

• The total has gone over in 19 of Houston's 28 October games since the start of the 2014 season.

• Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in games that follow fewer than six days of rest since the start of the 2013 season.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-10, 45), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• New England is 52-26 ATS after a loss under Bill Belichick.

• New England is 43-17 ATS in October over the past 15 seasons, the best mark in the NFL.

• New England is 12-6 ATS at home over the past three seasons, the best mark in the NFL.

Cam Newton is 37-27-1 ATS at home as a starter in his career and 2-0 ATS in that situation this season.

• Belichick is 23-11 ATS at home as a favorite over the past five seasons.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 47), Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

• New York (A) is 0-5 ATS this season, one of three teams that have not covered yet this season (along with Dallas and Tennessee). New York (A) is the first team since Jacksonville in 2014 to start 0-5 both outright and against the spread.

• New York (A) is 3-10 ATS versus divisional opponents since the start of the 2018 season.

• Adam Gase is 9-19 ATS as a road underdog is his head-coaching career, with Miami and New York (A).

• Miami is 4-0 ATS versus New York (A) since the start of the 2018 season.

• Miami is 20-50-2 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2003 season, the worst mark in the NFL over that span.

• This is the second time in the past decade that Miami has been favored by at least eight points. The other was Week 3 of the 2016 season. Since 2003, Miami is 0-8 ATS when favored by at least eight points.

Green Bay Packers (-1, 55) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

• Green Bay is 10-3-1 ATS following a bye over the past 14 seasons.

• Green Bay is 4-0 ATS this season, the only undefeated team against the spread left this season.

• Green Bay is 7-2 ATS against teams that entered with winning records under Matt LaFleur.

• The total has gone over in eight of the past nine games following a loss for Tampa Bay.

• Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in October since the start of last season, the worst mark in the NFL over that span.

Tom Brady is 9-1 ATS and 8-2 outright as a starter and home underdog in his career. Nine of the 10 games went over the total, including each of the eight outright wins. This is the first time Brady has been a home underdog since Week 9 of the 2014 season.

Aaron Rodgers is 4-8 ATS as a road favorite over the past five seasons.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 51.5) at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

• Los Angeles (N) is 5-2 ATS since the start of last season as a road favorite.

• Los Angeles (N) is also 9-3 ATS over its past 12 road games.

• San Francisco is 0-3 ATS and straight up at home this season. Its only two wins have come at MetLife Stadium (against the Giants and Jets).

• San Francisco is 5-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, the only undefeated team ATS as an underdog in the NFL over that span.

• The total has gone over in the past six games following a San Francisco loss.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 57.5) at Buffalo Bills, Monday, 5 p.m. ET

• All five Buffalo games have gone over the total so far this season. Last year Buffalo was 13-4 to the under, including the playoffs. This is the highest Buffalo total in the past 35 seasons.

Patrick Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS in his career (4-3 ATS after a loss).

• Kansas City is 7-1-1 ATS in Monday games under Andy Reid and 4-0-1 ATS with Mahomes at quarterback.

• Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in games with fewer than six days of rest since 2016.

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 55) at Dallas Cowboys, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Andy Dalton was 2-11 outright and 5-8 ATS last season as a starter. He is 6-15 outright and 9-12 ATS in his career in prime-time games.

• Arizona is the only team in the NFL to have all five of its games go under the total so far this season. Four straight Dallas games have gone over the total, each time by at least 12 points.

• Arizona is 8-20-1 ATS in Monday games in the Super Bowl era, including 2-11-1 ATS in the past 35 seasons. Each of its last seven Monday games went under the total.

• This is the fifth straight game in which Arizona has been favored, after being an underdog in its previous 14 games. Arizona is 2-3 outright as a favorite under Kliff Kingsbury.