Last week, we introduced a comparison of my personal power ratings to the general perception my ESPN colleagues have in their NFL Power Rankings. We took a look as a market watch of sorts at the differences in our top 10s. Recognizing where they differ -- combined with seeing my numbers and values of teams relative to one another -- can be a resource for those looking to do their own betting each week.
This week, I want to take a look at the bottom 10 teams to see if we can pick out any that grade better than their surface win-loss record (or worse). We'll also dive into a few of the major market moves we have seen early in Week 6.
23. Miami Dolphins (2-3)
24. Houston Texans (1-4)
25. Detroit Lions (1-3)
26. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
27. Washington Football Team (1-4)
28. Denver Broncos (1-3)
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
30. Atlanta Falcons (0-5)
31. New York Giants (0-5)
32. New York Jets (0-5)
Preston's Power Ratings
23. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1)
24. Carolina Panthers (3-2)
25. Chicago Bears (4-1)
26. Dolphins (2-3)
27. Broncos (1-3)
28. Bengals (1-3)
29. Jaguars (1-4)
30. Giants (0-5)
31. Washington (1-4)
32. Jets (0-5)
The Eagles just missed the bottom-10 cut in ESPN's Power Rankings, but the two notable replacements are the Bears and Panthers. It's possible that a winning team through five games is still one of the worst 10 teams in the league. In fact, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Bears are the second-worst 4-1 team in DVOA history (since 1985). I don't personally think it's worthwhile selling on a 4-1 Bears team this week against the Panthers in Carolina, but it's worth keeping an eye on going forward.
Other notable teams that ranked 24th and 30th in ESPN's Power Rankings are the Texans and Falcons. The win-loss results certainly haven't been there, but both Houston and Atlanta grade better in my ratings. There might be buy-low spots in the near future backing these teams -- both with new head coaches taking over during the season.
The Lions I have graded as nearly a league-average team, and they are by far the best team in my ratings of any in the bottom 10 of ESPN's. Am I wrong? It's possible, but it's worth noting the Lions are already getting bet heavily in Week 6 in Jacksonville -- so the market agrees.
Lions (-3.5, 54) at Jaguars
The Lions opened as low as -2 early Sunday. As more sportsbooks started posting lines and the numbers settled in Sunday night, the line was -3. A move to -3.5 is significant -- and telling. The Lions suffered a cluster of injuries in their secondary early in the season that distorts the true strength of their defense. Detroit also has had to face the offenses of the Packers, Cardinals and Saints in its past trio of games. Detroit is a buy team and has advantages all over the field against the Jaguars. Considering the Lions are coming off of a planned bye week for this matchup in Jacksonville, the move up is warranted.
Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 55)
The totals in the NFL have been historically high, but 57 was just too high of an opener in this matchup. It appears after a shaky start that the Vikings' defense is settling in, and it took a few fluky plays and turnovers for Seattle to generate any points Sunday night before essentially the final drive of the game.
Another note about those first few games for the Vikings: They had to play from behind early for a few of them. Their pace of play ranks 17th in the NFL, but after adjusting for situation-neutral context, Minnesota is 29th. The Falcons are one of the fastest teams regardless (ranking fourth), but it doesn't warrant a total of 57 for an offense that has struggled, ranks 22nd in DVOA and is at league average in success rate. For context, the Atlanta matchups against Dallas and Green Bay earlier this season weren't even that high.
I actually think 55 is still a little high here, so if you were looking under in this matchup anyway, I would take it now.
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 47) at Eagles
I wrote about this game in my first look at the Week 6 lines Sunday night, so the move up to -7.5 or -8 on the Baltimore side across the board isn't surprising. Keep an eye on it throughout the week, as I still think it is a worthwhile bet at -7, -120 ML or better. But if it doesn't make its way down again, then it's an excellent option as a 6-point teaser leg through key numbers.