Betting on bowl games has always been a rather fraught experience. There have always been extra variables to worry about -- teams losing their rhythm with two- to four-week breaks, players and teams dealing with, "Do I really care about being here right now?" issues, teams led by interim coaches, etc.
In the 2020s, however, you also have to deal with the impact of departures via either opt-out (for draft prospects who don't want to get hurt in their final game) or transfer. As power conference teams -- teams more likely to boast draft prospects -- begin to show up on the bowl dance card, let's rank the teams most likely to be impacted by big absences, be they of the opt-out, transfer or injury variety.
(Note: This list is in reaction to known opt-outs only. Many potential opt-outs have not yet made their intentions publicly known. If receivers such as Ohio State's Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson or Penn State's Jahan Dotson were to opt out, it would obviously have a huge impact. We're also going to focus on departing players, not coaches.)
(Note 2: Texas A&M was tops on this list before having to pull out of Gator Bowl)
1. Pittsburgh Panthers
Noteworthy absences: QB Kenny Pickett, CB Damarri Mathis
Deciding he's already proved all he possibly could in a brilliant senior season, Pickett opted out. This likely means an extended run for Nick Patti, a well-seasoned junior backup who completed 12 of 14 passes for 140 yards this season, primarily in September mop-up duty. Mathis, meanwhile, allowed just a 46% completion rate and 37.8 raw QBR as Pitt's ace coverage man. His absence could be particularly damaging against Michigan State's star playmakers Jayden Reed and, if healthy, Jalen Nailor.
These absences have significantly shifted the line for the Peach Bowl on Dec. 30: While SP+, again unadjusted for these absences, gives Pitt an 8.3-point advantage, the books give MSU a 2.5-point edge despite a key absence for the Spartans as well.
2. Purdue Boilermakers
Noteworthy absences: WR David Bell, DE George Karlaftis
Bell and Karlaftis were easily Purdue's best players. Bell caught 93 passes for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns and came up huge in the upsets of Iowa and Michigan State. Milton Wright had his own moments late in the season, catching eight passes for 213 yards and three scores against Northwestern. But the training wheels are off without Bell.
Purdue's defense improved to 19th in defensive SP+, and Karlaftis (11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 43 pressures) was a beast up front. But the Boilermaker front should still be able to offer resistance against Tennessee in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 thanks to players like tackle Branson Deen (10 TFLs) and end Kydran Jenkins (five sacks).
SP+ never really trusted Purdue this season and projected a 9.2-point edge for Tennessee regardless of absences. Without Bell and Karlaftis, "Vols -4.5" smells like a potential best bet.
3. Auburn Tigers
Noteworthy absences: CB Roger McCreary, QB Bo Nix, LB Zakoby McClain, C Nick Brahms, RT Brodarious Hamm
Nix's announced transfer to Oregon certainly deprives Auburn of experience at the most important position on the field, but the Tigers appear to have a decent replacement in T.J. Finley. Their passer ratings were nearly identical, though Nix had a significant advantage in Total QBR (70.8 versus 42.0).
Nix's departure alone might not result in a high ranking for Auburn on this list, but the Tigers have a volume problem. McCreary was easily the Tigers' best defender in pass coverage, McClain was their best run defender at linebacker, and Brahms and Hamm might have been their steadiest blockers.
SP+ liked Houston's chances in the Birmingham Bowl on Dec. 28 before these departures, giving AU only a 0.2-point advantage. Houston must replace cornerback and return man Marcus Jones, but you might find value at UH +2.5 if you don't think much of a potential AU home-field advantage in Birmingham.
4. Arkansas Razorbacks
Noteworthy absences: WR Treylon Burks, DE Tre Williams
The Outback Bowl on Jan. 1 pits maybe the best 8-4 team in the country (Arkansas) against maybe the best 7-5 team (Penn State). Penn State has thus far lost linebackers Ellis Brooks and Brandon Smith to opt-out, but Arkansas has been hit a bit harder.
Burks was so good in 2021 that he was basically Arkansas' No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. His 90 targets were nearly three times more than that of any other Razorback (No. 2 was Warren Thompson at 34), so his opt-out could be huge. Williams, meanwhile, had 32 pressures and six sacks; no one else on the Arkansas defense had more than 11 and six, respectively. SP+ projected a 2.3-point edge for Penn State before these departures, but the line remains at a potentially opportunistic PSU -2.
5. Missouri Tigers
Noteworthy absences: RB Tyler Badie, QB Connor Bazelak, S Martez Manuel, CB Akayleb Evans, DT Akial Byers
Badie was the Mizzou offense this year. He carried 268 times in 12 games -- no one else topped 24 -- and with 54 receptions he caught 19 more than any Tiger wideout. His absence from Wednesday's Armed Forces Bowl against Army would get Mizzou on this list by itself, but the Tigers will also have to make do without Bazelak (who battled nagging injuries for much of the season), and three defensive starters including Evans, by far their best cover man.
Granted, the Tigers are playing Army, which means pass coverage is a lower priority, but this is still a short-handed Mizzou squad making its way to Fort Worth, and the line was already hovering around Army -5.5 before the Badie news dropped.
6. Virginia Tech Hokies
Noteworthy absences: QB Braxton Burmeister, DE Amare Barno, WR Tre Turner, DT Jordan Williams, CB Jermaine Waller, LG Lecitus Smith, WR Tayvion Robinson
Between opt-outs and a solid number of transfer portal entries following head coach Justin Fuente's departure, the Hokies are dealing with quite a bit of churn on the depth chart. With backup quarterback Knox Kadum also entering the portal, it appears they'll start Connor Blumrick in the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 29. Blumrick completed seven of 16 passes for just 42 yards this season, and he'll be without the Hokies' top two receiving targets and a solid guard in Smith. The defense also loses three starters.
SP+ gave Maryland a 2.2-point advantage before these departures, so the fact that the line is only at Maryland -3.5 after this churn might create some value for betting on the Terrapins ... if you can get past the whole "they have mostly stunk since September" thing.
7. Michigan State Spartans
Noteworthy absences: RB Kenneth Walker III
Michigan State didn't make the Peach Bowl because of one player, but Walker's importance was obvious. He scored five touchdowns with 197 rushing yards against an excellent Michigan defense in the Spartans' win over the Wolverines, and he was averaging nearly seven yards per carry until nagging injuries took away some of his explosiveness late in the season.
Walker predictably went pro and opted out, which should mean more of a load for backup Jordon Simmons (54 carries, 4.7 yards per carry). If both Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor are healthy -- Nailor hasn't played since the Michigan game -- that could make up for Walker's absence from a playmaking standpoint, but the entire identity of the offense shifts without its All-American running back.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Noteworthy absences: RB Kyren Williams, S Kyle Hamilton
Granted, the Fighting Irish have already gotten used to playing without Hamilton, who missed the last five games of the regular season with a knee injury and recently officially opted out of the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 1 against Oklahoma State. But as with Walker and Michigan State, Williams was the motor for this team in 2021.
With help from an increasingly improved offensive line, Williams went from averaging 3.9 yards per carry over the first six games to 5.9 over the last six, and Notre Dame's scoring accordingly went from 31 points per game to 39.5. He was a rushing and receiving threat, and his blocking was impeccable, and while backups Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs have obvious potential, losing Williams will hurt against an excellent Oklahoma State defense. While SP+ gave Notre Dame a 4.1-point advantage over OSU, the line has sunk to Notre Dame -2.
9. Iowa State Cyclones
Noteworthy absences: RB Breece Hall, S Isheem Young, CB Kym-Mani King
Hall might have been even more instrumental than quarterback Brock Purdy when it came to redefining what Iowa State football could be. The Cyclones were best by close losses on their way to a disappointing 7-5 campaign, but 7-5 would have been cause for a parade just a few short years ago, and even with the disappointment Hall rushed for 1,472 yards and 20 touchdowns. Backup Jirehl Brock carried only 23 times all year. Hall was the bellcow and then some, and this is a completely different Iowa State offense without him.
The line for the Cheez-It Bowl on Dec. 29 is interesting. SP+ gives Clemson a 5.3-point edge without acknowledging turnover, but the line is only Clemson -1. Clemson's receiving corps is banged up and uncertain, and there's been a ton of turnover on the coaching staff, but ISU's secondary departures will offset some of Clemson's WR issues. It feels like this line should be a few more points in the Tigers' direction.
10. SMU Mustangs
Noteworthy absences: WR Reggie Roberson Jr., WR Danny Gray
Virginia, SMU's opponent in the Fenway Bowl on Dec. 29, saw a number of players -- including star center Olusegun Oluwatimi -- enter the transfer portal following the resignation of head coach Bronco Mendenhall. It's possible, however, that a lot of those players still play in the bowl. We don't know for sure who the Cavaliers will be missing, which makes betting on this game a pretty dicey experiment. But we do know that SMU will be without two-thirds of its ace receiver trio. Rashee Rice should play, but in Gray and Roberson the Mustangs lose two players who combined for 100 catches, 1,428 yards and 15 touchdowns.
11. Arizona State Sun Devils
Noteworthy absences: RB Rachaad White, RB Chip Trayanum
ASU had maybe the most efficient and exciting non-option ground game in the country this year, and while quarterback Jayden Daniels' legs are important in that regard (he's averaged 8.0 yards per carry not including sacks), White and Trayanum (combined: 260 carries, 1,408 yards, 21 touchdowns) were the load carriers. But White's off to the NFL, and Trayanum transferred. The Sun Devils still have Daniyel Ngata (45 carries, 286 yards), but he might have to carry a massive load in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 30 against a Wisconsin team that was already a solid favorite.
12. Nevada Wolf Pack or LSU Tigers (tie)
Noteworthy absences: QB Carson Strong and TE Cole Turner (Nevada), QB Max Johnson (LSU)
The Quick Lane Bowl on Dec. 27 could have been one final showcase for Strong with Nevada, but with coach Jay Norvell leaving for Colorado State, Strong went ahead and said goodbye, too. Senior backup Nate Cox will get the start, and while Cox was a solid 14-for-20 for 158 yards and a touchdown in mop-up duty this year, the line (WMU -7) gives major respect to Strong's abilities -- SP+ projected a 6.9-point advantage for the Wolf Pack before Strong's departure. Nevada might still be a solid bet considering that level of disagreement.
LSU also lost its starting QB, albeit to the transfer portal. With Johnson out and the injured Myles Brennan unlikely to play, the reins go to freshman Garrett Nussmeier, who went just 29-for-57 with two touchdowns and two picks this season. LSU is a 2.5-point underdog to Kansas State in the Texas Bowl on Jan. 4, but SP+ gave KSU a 5.8-point advantage without any Johnson-related adjustment.