"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" have broken down bowl game after bowl game, and now we're down to the biggest one of them all.
Alabama and Georgia will square off once again, this time for the national championship. The guys break down the matchup as only they can and offer their picks for Monday night's game.
Records
Stanford Steve (4-3-1 in bowls; 43-32-1 overall)
The Bear (6-4-1 in bowls; 42-48-2 overall)
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 52.5)
8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN App (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
Fallica: This game feels a little like the 2011 championship game where LSU won the regular-season meeting in Tuscaloosa, but you knew if they met again Alabama would win; or the Clemson-Notre Dame rematch last year after the Irish beat a shorthanded Tigers squad in South Bend. In the long run, maybe that loss in Atlanta was the best thing that could have happened to Georgia. The Bulldogs appeared to be a completely refocused, dialed-in squad in the Orange Bowl blowout of Michigan.
In Atlanta, the Tide had seven 20-yard completions, averaged 10 yards per dropback and Bryce Young's off-target percentage was 7%. In the semifinal vs. Cincinnati, the Tide had just two 20-yard completions, averaged less than six yards per dropback and saw Young's off-target percentage climb to 19%. Of course, the million dollar question is, was that because of game plan and the Tide knowing it could run at will, because of Cincinnati's secondary or because John Metchie III was/is out of the lineup? Jameson Williams' yards per reception was four yards less than his previous low vs. an FBS opponent this year.
I think in this game, Georgia will get back to playing more complementary football to assist its defense -- high-percentage passes to offset the run and build Stetson Bennett's confidence. I'd also look for the Bulldogs to show a little more presnap movement and motion to try to confuse Alabama's defense.
I thought this number would stay right at three and that if it dropped to 2.5, Georgia money would come pouring in. If it goes to 3.5, Alabama money will be plentiful, and books would have that liability, in addition to underdog ML money, which we always see in title games like this. So you may even get a bit of a discount on a Georgia ML price here. We've also seen six of 11 CFP games with a spread less than seven points ultimately decided by 17 points or more. So if you're thinking alternate price at a nice plus number, that's not a bad idea.
Yes, Georgia has blown leads in each of the last four games vs. Alabama, with three being double-digit leads. But I've felt Georgia was the best team in the country all season and I think the Bulldogs will show it Monday night and finally slay their nemesis.
Pick: Georgia -3
Stanford Steve: The biggest question I had coming into all of the bowls was how would Georgia come out in the Orange Bowl after last seeing the Bulldogs get dismantled by Alabama in the SEC title game. Boy, did they impress, with Bennett going for 313 yards through the air with three TDs. The defense made Michigan look small, slow and not physical, which was just as impressive. Another question I had was what would Alabama do to replace star Metchie, and what would it look like. For the most part, it was WR, Ja'Corey Brooks taking Metchie's place in those 10- and 11-personnel groups, and he caught four balls for 66 yards and a touchdown. But I also think Bama knew it had a big advantage on the line of scrimmage vs. the Cincinnati defensive line, and that's where they went, as they rushed for 301 yards, led by Brian Robinson and his 204. We can look at the matchups all we want. For me, I'm taking the QB and the head coach, and Bama has the advantage at both those positions. I'll take the points with Bama.
Pick: Alabama +3, (Alabama 28, Georgia 27)
Completed games
Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Capital One Venture X
No. 11 Utah Utes vs. No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-4.5, 64)
Final: Ohio State 48, Utah 45
Fallica: Ultimate contrarian play or just a flat out stupid play? I know who Ohio State will not have, but that still means the Buckeyes will have TreVeyon Henderson, C.J. Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr., so I expect the Buckeyes to still have some success on offense. Ohio State recruits so well that we're simply going to be introduced to the next wave. Give Utah all the credit in the world for overcoming what it has this season en route to a Pac-12 title. But I just don't know how good the league was. Yes, I know Oregon upset Ohio State early in the year, but Utah's great finish also included wins over Stanford, Arizona and Colorado. I know Utah is the motivated team and the team excited to be in the Rose Bowl, but I'm not sure the Ohio State team we'll see Saturday will be one ready to mail it in.
Pick: Ohio State -4.5
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
No. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 22 Kentucky Wildcats (-3, 44)
Final: Kentucky 20, Iowa 17
Fallica: What has been Kentucky's biggest issue this year? Turnovers. UK is -13 this year and has five games which it committed at least three turnovers. Who in the country has been a bigger recipient of turnover luck and generating turnovers this year than Iowa? The Hawkeyes are +14 and forced multiple turnovers in eight games. After the way the Iowa was manhandled by Michigan in the Big Ten Championship game, I would be surprised if it didn't put forth a solid effort here.
Pick: Iowa +3
Stanford Steve: Every year on New Year's Day we get multiple SEC vs. Big Ten matchups... and every year one of the underdog Big Ten teams hangs around with the favored SEC team. I think the Hawkeyes are that team this year.
Pick: Iowa +3 (Iowa 21, Kentucky 20)
CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5, 45.5) vs. No. 2 Michigan Wolverines
Final: Georgia 34, Michigan 11
Fallica: The Wolverines are a public 'dog, and maybe they are the right side, but I think there has been a bit of an overreaction to reassessing the Georgia season in its entirety. Michigan will not be able to run like it has the last two weeks and will have to mix in some passing, especially early in downs. Can the pass game carry them? The only game Michigan had consistent success through the air was vs. the worst pass defense in the country at Michigan State. I trust Georgia to come up with a plan to slow Michigan down, as it doesn't offer the same challenges in personnel that Alabama had. I expect Georgia to bounce back in a big way.
Pick: Georgia -7.5
CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5, 57.5)
Final: Alabama 27, Cincinnati 6
Fallica: I just don't think the Bearcats have more than three TDs in them. Blocking Will Anderson and that Tide defense will be a problem. It had problems with the Indiana defense until McFadden was ejected for targeting. This feels a lot like the Washington-Alabama semifinal a few years ago where I don't think Alabama feels threatened by the opposing offense. I do think the Cincinnati defense will play well for a while and keep UC in the game, but it wont be enough to pull the upset.
Pick: Cincinnati team total under 22.5
Stanford Steve: When this line first came out, I thought I would be giving out the underdog, but the more tape I watch, some things stand out. The pressure Bama's offense puts on you with their speed, talent, scheme and most importantly, their big play capability from anywhere on the field is scary. Cincy hasn't faced anything like it and I would imagine it's pretty hard to prepare for. As much as I love everything about how Cincinnati battled Georgia last year, this is a different animal. I worry about the Bearcats hanging for the full 60 minutes. I'll take the Tide and lay the points.
Pick: Alabama -13.5 (Alabama 37, Cincinnati 20)
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
No. 17 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-14.5, 62) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Final: Wake Forest 38, Rutgers 10
Fallica: The Demon Deacons have been held under 35 points twice all season and now get renewed life after Texas A&M was unable to play. Now Wake faces a Rutgers team that thought its season was over, now has to prep for a bowl game, which who knows how many players even want to play. It's a Rutgers team that has scored more than 20 points once vs. Power 5 opposition (38 vs Indiana). I just don't see any way the State University of New Jersey keeps pace with Wake Forest.
Pick: Wake Forest -14.5
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 30)
Wisconsin Badgers 20, Arizona State Sun Devils 13
Fallica: Wisconsin held eight teams under 17 points this season, and in the games where opponents had some success, a lot of that was related to Graham Mertz turning the ball over. I just trust Jim Leonhard to put together a game plan to shut down a team that might not be all in here and doesn't have the most dynamic offense to begin with.
Pick: Arizona State team total under 17.5
Stanford Steve: When you look at this match up, it's pretty easy to say Wisconsin is the more trust worthy team. But, it's bowl season, there should not be any trust seeing how unexpected things happen all the time. I do like the idea of Jim Leonhard preparing for this Arizona State offense, knowing how inconsistent he Sun Devils pass game has been this year. I'll take the Badgers and give the points.
Pick: Wisconsin -6 (Wisconsin 27 Arizona State 17)
Cheez-It Bowl (Dec. 29)
No. 19 Clemson Tigers 20. Iowa State Cyclones 13
Fallica: Clemson is used to playing in College Football Playoff games and now has to face Iowa State in Orlando, Florida, without its coordinators and with a QB who has struggled all season. No thank you, especially against a really good Iowa State defense and one that should be motivated to end a disappointing season on a positive note, even without RB Breece Hall.
Pick: Iowa State +1
Stanford Steve: I'll take the team with the coaching staff intact. Even though Cyclones QB Brock Purdy had a subpar year, I give the 'Clones the advantage in this matchup at that position. I'll take Iowa State plus the point.
Pick: Iowa State +1 (Iowa State 23 Clemson 17)
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl (Dec. 28)
Air Force Falcons 31, Louisville Cardinals 28
Stanford Steve: I don't think there will be much defense in this game. I'll take the over.
Pick: Over 55.5 points (Air Force 34, Louisville 31)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 28)
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-4, 45)
10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN at Chase Field
Fallica: I like the way Minnesota is entering this game and you know P.J. Fleck will have complete buy-in from his team. The Gophers have overcome a lot this season, beat Wisconsin in its big rivalry game and its defense has played quite well, although I'm not sure how great some of those offenses were. But this is a West Virginia offense that's been hit-or-miss this season and will not have RB Leddy Brown.
Pick: Minnesota -4
PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 18)
Fresno State Bulldogs 31, UTEP Miners 24
Stanford Steve: One team is playing in their first bowl game since 2014 (UTEP) and the other is playing a game with an interim head coach (Lee Marks) and a quarterback (Jake Haener) who was going to transfer but is now staying at Fresno State. I do expect UTEP to be plenty motivated and possibly build an early lead before Fresno State figures things out and gets the offense going. The two best offenses UTEP faced (Boise and UTSA) combined for over 1,000 yards in those two games. I think Fresno State's offense is better than both of those. I don't want to have a side here, so we'll just take the over.
Pick: Over 51.5 (Fresno State 41, UTEP 20)
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Dec. 18)
Utah State Aggies 24, Oregon State 13
(at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, CA)
Fallica: The Aggies capped a magical season with an upset win over shorthanded San Diego State in the MWC title game. I have to wonder if this game is kind of an afterthought after the high of that win. Maybe it won't be, but I think the Oregon State offensive line and running game might be too much here and will keep the ball out of the Aggies' hands. After losing a rivalry game to end the regular season, winning a bowl game for the first time since 2013 and finishing with eight wins would be considered a successful season for the Beavers.
Pick: Oregon State -7
LendingTree Bowl (Dec. 18)
Liberty Flames 56, Eastern Michigan Eagles 20
Stanford Steve: The Flames finished the year losing their final three games to three bowl teams: Ole Miss, Louisiana and Army. Now, the Eagles aren't in those teams' tier, but I think they are pretty capable of hanging around this game. What will Malik Willis and that Hugh Freeze offense look like? They turned the ball over 11 times in those final three losses. Not sure what the motivation will be playing in Mobile, Alabama after starting the year with so much promise. We'll play it safe and take the points, even though Eastern Michigan has only one bowl win in school history... but we don't need them to win the game. Just cover the number.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +9.5 (Liberty 28, Eastern Michigan 21)
Fallica: About the only thing the Eagles haven't been able to accomplish under Chris Creighton is winning a bowl game. In their three bowl games, EMU has lost by 4, 2 and 4 as 12.5, 3 and 5-point 'dogs. So three close losses as a short dog, a medium dog and a big dog. Liberty has slumped home to end the regular season -- granted it was against Ole Miss, UL Lafayette and Army -- but the offense didn't do much in those games. Willis threw 12 INT in the final eight games, so we'll see if the turnovers stop here. Now the EMU defense shouldn't be confused with any of those, as its 111th nationally in Adjusted Expected Points. But offensively the Eagles should more than hold their own -- EMU ranks 68th in offensive EPA; Liberty is 61st. At the very least I expect EMU to score enough points to be right in this.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +9.5
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl (Dec. 21)
San Diego State Aztecs 38, UTSA Roadrunners 24
Fallica: This one hurts as the Roadrunners have been one of "my teams" this season. But this will be by far the best defense UTSA has faced this year -- San Diego State is 19th in EPA. Middle Tennessee is the previous best at 32nd and UTSA managed only two offensive TD in that game. After an embarrassing loss in the conference title game with an extremely shorthanded roster, I expect the Aztecs to end the season on a positive note here.
Pick: San Diego State +2.5
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22)
Army Black Knights 24, Missouri Tigers 22
Stanford Steve: I'm not saying we're gonna see a repeat of the Wake Forest/Army game from earlier this season, where the Knights lost to the Demon Deacons 70-56, but I can see a back and forth game to an extent. Mizzou was last in the SEC in rush defense, and we know what Army loves to do. Mizzou has shown plenty of capability on the offensive side of the ball, with wins over Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt down the stretch to get bowl eligible. The expectation is a lot of kickoffs. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 58 (Army 35, Mizzou 31)
Underdogs to Play on ML
Last Week: 3-0, +5.2 units
Season: 31-50, +6.5 units