The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs on Monday in a rematch of the SEC Championship. This time it's for the national title.
The Crimson Tide came away with a 41-24 win over the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship in early December. Alabama is looking for back-to-back titles, while Georgia is looking for revenge and its first national championship since the 1980 season.
Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly, David M. Hale and Tyler Fulghum provide their best bets for the highly anticipated College Football Playoff final.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 52.5)
8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN App (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
Fortenbaugh: The closing total for the SEC Championship game was 48 points, so we're seeing a four-point adjustment north after Alabama and Georgia combined to score 65 points back on December 4. I believe that's an overadjustment that creates value in betting the under. The Tide put together a masterful game plan last month in deploying a pass-heavy, up-tempo approach to neutralize the stout Georgia defense. The good news for Bulldogs backers is that Alabama won't have the element of surprise on its side this time around, meaning Georgia will have a much better chance of limiting a Tide offense that will be without star wide receiver John Metchie, who caught six passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in the conference title game. Alabama enters the final showdown of the year with a defense that ranks sixth nationally in opponent yards per play and 13th in scoring. This is going to be a much different game than the first one.
Pick: Under 52.5
Connelly: It feels like the spread and total are loosely tied together. If Georgia wins semi-comfortably (i.e. by three or more points), odds are decent that it could unfold in a defense-heavy rock fight. The Dawgs have been dominant in that regard in all but one game (the first meeting with Bama), and Alabama's defense has taken a pretty significant leap itself over the second half of the season. Two of the three near-losses the Tide had to battle through in December featured 34 or fewer points in regulation.
If Alabama wins, however, it's not hard to see things playing out like the Tide's last two wins over the Dawgs, each by matching scores of 41-24. Both teams land some haymakers, but the Bama offense has too many weapons, Georgia's Stetson Bennett forces the issue in an attempt to keep up and turns the ball over a couple of times, and the Tide rolls in a game with 60-plus points.
Just as it did in the SEC Championship Game, SP+ leans slightly on the Georgia side of the line, which ... obviously didn't work out in Atlanta. But I think Alabama played much closer to its ceiling than UGA did in that game, and while it feels like stepping on the same rake over and over, I lean toward Georgia in this one. I guess that also means I lean under. What could go wrong picking against Alabama in a huge game against a former Nick Saban assistant?
Pick: Georgia -3, under 52.5
Kezirian: I feel like these two teams are so evenly matched and thus cannot get involved on the side. However, I do think we will see some points. Ultimately, good offense will always beat good defense. Both defensive units are solid, particularly Georgia's, but the excellent coaching staffs have ample time to scheme and will find weaknesses without outstanding offensive talent. We certainly saw Bama do that in the SEC title game, thanks to offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien and Heisman winner Bryce Young. I will take the over in the rematch.
Pick: Over 52.5
Fulghum: My analysis will be short and sweet: I see Nick Saban getting points. I'm in. The Tide have been a betting underdog on three occasions since 2009: the 2009 SEC Championship against Florida; a 2015 regular season game against Georgia; and last month's SEC title game against Georgia. The Tide won those games by 19, 28 and 17 points, respectively.
Pick: Alabama +3, Alabama ML (+115)
Hale: I once asked Bobby Bowden about Georgia's myriad close calls under Mark Richt. He said it was like golf. You can only rim out so many putts before one of them falls, and for Richt and UGA, it would happen eventually. Well, Richt is retired. Bowden, sadly, died last year. And Georgia -- Georgia is still waiting for one of those putts to land in the cup. But Bowden is right that, in any given single-game sample, things can go wrong. But give yourself enough makeable putts and even the worst golfer will drain one eventually. Georgia has been too good for too long to continue to come up empty. This year might be Georgia's best team ever, and for all of Alabama's success over the past month, this remains one of Saban's lesser squads. The matchup screams Georgia, even if history keeps reminding us never to doubt Alabama. Let's roll with the numbers rather than the history, and at least when we lose, we'll be able to say we should've seen it coming.
Pick: Georgia -3
Money splits
• Tickets: 62% of bets are on Alabama, 38% on Georgia.
• Money: 76% of the money wagered is Georgia, 24% on Alabama.
• Total: 71% of the bets, 74% of money on over
Notable bets
• Mattress Mack bets $1.2M on Alabama to win outright.
• One bettor put $300K on Alabama ML to win $375K.
Betting nuggets
• This is the third time since 2010 that Alabama has been an underdog. Each of the previous two times came against Georgia, and each of the previous two times, Alabama won by at least 17 points.
• Alabama is 6-4 outright and 6-3-1 ATS as an underdog under Nick Saban, including 5-1 outright and ATS since his second season in 2008.
• Georgia's title odds peaked at 10-1 in May, and the Bulldogs entered the season +750. Alabama's odds were as long as +650 entering the SEC Championship Game.
• The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, including 4-0 in the last four.