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          10 biggest questions for college football bowl season

          • Bill ConnellyDec 16, 2021, 07:00 AM ET
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              Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
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          No matter what your holiday traditions might be, there's a bowl for the occasion. Office holiday parties next week? There's a game for almost every evening. Need something to watch to distract yourself from awkward conversations with relatives on Christmas Eve? Time for Memphis vs. Hawai'i in the EasyPost Hawaii Bowl! Need some background noise for your Christmas afternoon coma/nap? It's Georgia State vs. Ball State in the TaxAct Camellia Bowl!

          Between Friday and Jan. 4, 43 bowls will kick off, from the Bahamas to Boise and everywhere in between. There are loads of interim coaches, opt-outs grow more common every year, and it probably goes without saying that your cranky uncle will tell you all about how, grumble grumble, there are too many bowls nowadays, and back in his day they really mattered. Ignore him. College football is here to provide a slow and steady trickle of entertainment value for your holiday season, and there are plenty of storylines to follow along the way. Here are the 10 biggest questions I have for the 2021-22 bowl season.

          Who shows up?

          Bowl season can often serve as a hinge between the past season and the upcoming offseason. Key players opt out, interim coaches are everywhere, some teams mentally checked out a couple of weeks prior, and the games are therefore a little bit less predictable or reflective of the season we just witnessed.

          Over the past five seasons, 41% of bowls have finished with a scoring margin more than 14 points from the spread, compared to 36% of regular-season games. Over the course of 40-plus games, that translates to a couple more nonsensical results than normal.

          These results will surely wreck your standing in a bowl pool, and they're hard to see coming in advance. I found a couple of years ago that having an interim coach doesn't really make your game any less predictable than normal, and while opt-outs will certainly have an effect, the spreads will adjust to reflect said impact.

          Remember that old Mike Tyson quote about how everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth? Well, everyone thinks they're ready to bowl until someone throws a trick-play touchdown pass on them in the first quarter of the Wasabi Fenway Bowl. Who finds themselves genuinely ready for a fight? Who mentally checks out in the second quarter? We'll see!

          What are the most likely close games?

          Acknowledging that variability is indeed a smidge higher in bowl season, it must be said that the bowl pairings are pretty spectacular from an evenness standpoint. Of the 43 bowls, SP+ projects only three to have a scoring margin of more than two touchdowns, and it projects 28 within eight points and 14 within three.

          Here are the closest projections of the bunch, in chronological order:

          Dec. 18, Dec. 29 and Jan. 1 could be particularly exciting from a close games perspective.

          Which big-name quarterback leaves the best final impression?

          It's a fact that players will continue to opt out of bowls to protect themselves from injury as they begin draft preparation. You don't have to like it, but it'll keep happening. This bowl cycle has seen its share of declarations already, but as things stand, we might get a little bit lucky from a quarterback perspective. We're still waiting to hear about the status of players such as Pitt's Kenny Pickett, but a few big names currently appear to be playing in their upcoming bowls.

          Ole Miss' Matt Corral, one of the top draft prospects for 2022, announced that he will play against Baylor in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1. Corral battled nagging injuries over the second half of the season and saw his passer rating fall, but he still completed 68% of his passes and considerably cut his interception rate. He'll get tested by a Baylor secondary that picked off 16 passes (fifth in FBS) and held opponents to a 124.5 passer rating (36th).

          North Carolina's Sam Howell is also in. He'll take the field for the Tar Heels against South Carolina in the Duke's Mayo Bowl on Dec. 30. Howell's junior season was frustrating -- UNC went just 6-6, and between intentional carries (10.5 per game at 8.4 yards per carry) and loads of sacks, Howell took a lot of hits in the process. The Heels rank 126th in sack rate allowed, thanks to both Howell's own playmaking urges and a porous offensive line. South Carolina's pass rush isn't the best UNC has faced, but the secondary is awfully aggressive.

          Liberty's Malik Willis remains Mel Kiper Jr.'s No. 4 quarterback for the 2022 draft despite an all-or-nothing 2021 season. After completing 71% of his passes with zero interceptions and a 197.6 passer rating through five games, he completed only 54% passes, had 14 picks and a 126.7 rating over his final seven. He could use a huge performance against EMU in the Lending Tree Bowl on Saturday.

          Could the opening Saturday possibly be any more fun?

          The first Saturday of the bowl slate tends to pit some of the Group of 5's best teams against each other, and that certainly applies this season with Western Kentucky and Appalachian State facing off in the Boca Raton Bowl (11 a.m. ET on ESPN), UAB and BYU headlining in the midday Independence Bowl (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC), and Louisiana and Marshall kicking off the evening in the New Orleans Bowl (9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).

          This slate gets bonus points as well. All three of the above games are projected within 1.2 points, which is fantastic. We also get Bailey Zappe's quest for 6,000 passing yards -- the WKU quarterback is 284 yards away from the most ever in a single season at the FBS level and 451 from 6,000 (he's averaging 427 per game). We get UTEP's first bowl in seven years, against Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl (2:15 p.m. ET on ESPN). We get a Celebration Bowl featuring Deion Sanders' Jackson State Tigers against South Carolina State (noon ET on ABC). We get the aforementioned Willis showcase against Eastern Michigan in the Lending Tree Bowl (5:45 p.m. ET on ESPN). And we get a potentially explosive track meet between Utah State and Oregon State in the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC).

          Big names, big storylines, tight games and lots of touchdowns. It's hard to ask for more than that.

          Can Utah smell the roses?

          Winning the Pac-12 and reaching the Rose Bowl was the perfect culmination for a Utah team that just recently celebrated its 10-year anniversary in the conference. The Utes took a minute to get their footing in the power conference ranks -- they went just 18-19 in their first three seasons -- but they've been one of the steadiest programs in the Pac-12 since. They've won at least nine games in six of the past seven full seasons, and after their 38-10 win over Oregon in Las Vegas on Dec. 3, they get the ultimate Pac-12 experience: Facing a Big Ten heavyweight in the most beautiful stadium on the planet.

          Ohio State is about a touchdown or so favorite in the Rose Bowl, and justifiably so. The Buckeyes have been one of the most high-upside teams in college football, and the computers love them -- they remain in the top three in both SP+ and FPI.

          If you're a Utah fan, however, it's not hard to dream big about your team's first trip to Pasadena. Ohio State got pushed around a little by Oregon and a lot by Michigan in its two losses, and who absolutely bullied Oregon up and down the field twice in the last month? Kyle Whittingham's Utes. Ohio State could end up dealing with some opt-outs, and if the Buckeyes are anything less than 100% dialed in, a nasty Utes team will be more than happy to dominate the trenches, hit really hard and wait for the Buckeyes to fold. Will Ohio State comply?

          Does the third act of Dabo Swinney's Clemson tenure start with a win?

          The Clemson transition is going to be one of the major stories of 2022. After creating almost perfect continuity for a long period of time, the Tigers and coach Dabo Swinney are now dealing with nothing but change. Swinney lost both defensive coordinator Brent Venables and offensive coordinator Tony Elliott, who took the head coaching jobs at Oklahoma and Virginia, respectively. He replaced them with internal candidates - Brandon Streeter on offense, Wes Goodwin and Mickey Conn as co-coordinators on defense - and the school must replace athletic director Dan Radakovich, who had served there since 2012.

          Clemson showed just enough staleness in 2021, particularly on offense, that you could spin this change as necessary and good if you wanted. (The internal promotions also kept it from being too much change.) If the first act of Swinney's tenure was the building job from 2009 to '14 and the second act was the incredible run of success from 2015 to '21, the third act begins, at least symbolically, on Dec. 29 in Orlando, where Clemson plays Iowa State in the Cheez-It Bowl.

          ISU's 2021 season was disappointing -- the Cyclones began the season in the top 10 for the first time, but went just 7-5 thanks to four one-score losses. But it appears that sought-after head coach Matt Campbell will be staying in Ames despite the wild coaching carousel, and they get a chance to end the season by beating one of the sport's heavyweights. Meanwhile, despite massive offensive struggles for much of the season, a Clemson win would mean that even in a massive down year, the Tigers pulled off a 10-win campaign.

          Can UCF take advantage of a shot at Florida?

          UCF has been pining for a nonconference matchup with Florida for years, but it has taken forever to come to fruition. Despite the schools being separated by only 130 miles, 18 years were scheduled to have passed between the schools' last meeting in 2006 and their next one, in Gainesville, in 2024.

          The bowl gods didn't want to wait that long. The Knights and Gators will butt heads in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa on Dec. 23, and while Florida is about a touchdown favorite, the Gators will have to match UCF's motivation level to win. They'll be playing for interim coach Greg Knox, and they'll be missing explosive quarterback Anthony Richardson (out with injury), plus whoever might end up opting out. (Quarterback Emory Jones is entering the transfer portal but will evidently stay with the team for the bowl.)This is far from UCF's best team of late, but the Knights did win five of their past six to get to 8-4 with freshman quarterback Mikey Keene slowly getting his sea legs after replacing the injured (and now transferred) Dillon Gabriel. Keene managed just a 113.6 passer rating in his first five games, but he improved to 149.6 in his last five.

          UCF still goes three-and-out quite a bit, and the defense is susceptible to efficient ground games. But if Florida is anything less than 100% dialed in, this one could be quite a brawl.

          Can Coach Prime and Jackson State seal a dynamite season with a Celebration?

          There will be a sellout crowd on hand on Saturday for the Celebration Bowl between Jackson State and South Carolina State. JSU enjoyed the highest average attendance in FCS, and while the fans usually show up for the Tigers, they had extra reason to cheer in 2021.

          In Deion Sanders' first fall in charge, JSU went 11-1, sweeping through the SWAC and losing by just five to FBS' Louisiana Monroe. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders won the Jerry Rice Award -- the first time the award has gone to an HBCU product -- and the defense held opponents to 13.5 points per game. Sanders massively upgraded the talent level in Jackson, making heavy use of the transfer portal and bringing Shedeur, his blue-chip son, to town. It immediately paid off, and JSU is a significant favorite. Oh yeah, and he just signed one of the top recruits in the 2022 class.

          Buddy Pough's Bulldogs have a different turnaround tale to tell. They began the season 1-4 with losses to not only Clemson and New Mexico State, but also the SWAC's Alabama A&M and Florida A&M. But they won five of their last six and swept the MEAC to qualify for a trip to Atlanta despite a 6-5 record. They are clear underdogs (15 points, per SP+ projections), but a dynamite pair of ends -- Jablonski Green and Patrick Godbolt, who have combined for 30.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks -- would make life in the pocket difficult for Sanders. Can they end Coach Prime's fantastic season on a sour note?

          Who wins the Awkward Air Raid Reunion Bowl?

          In 2009, Mike Leach was fired by Texas Tech in controversial fashion. (He still claims they owe him money.) Since then, he has found success at basically the Texas Techs of the Pac-12 (Washington State, where he scored 55 wins and a top-10 finish in 2018) and the SEC (Mississippi State, where he went 7-5 this season with wins over NC State, Texas A&M and Auburn).

          Texas Tech is still trying to find its form in Leach's absence. The Red Raiders won at least nine games in four of his last five seasons in Lubbock, but they haven't done so since. Tommy Tuberville, Kliff Kingsbury and Matt Wells have all succumbed to this hard job, and they need a Dec. 28 Liberty Bowl win over Leach and MSU to snap a five-year streak of sub-.500 seasons. There's reason for optimism over the school's recent hire of Joey McGuire, who will take over full time after the trip to Memphis. But it's safe to say that the Liberty Bowl will be primarily about Leach.

          Who's playing for landmark finishes?

          Here are some other interesting (to me, at least) achievements on the line in the coming weeks:

          • UTEP has another shot at its first bowl win since 1967. The Miners have bowled only six times in the 54 years since their 14-7 upset of John Vaught's Ole Miss in the 1967 Sun Bowl, and they've gone 0-6. They're double-digit underdogs against Fresno State in Saturday's New Mexico Bowl, but they've got plenty to play for.

          • With a win in Saturday night's New Orleans Bowl, Louisiana would clinch a ranked finish for the second straight season. Total ranked finishes before 2020: 0. Billy Napier did incredible things in Lafayette.

          • There's a ranked finish on the line when 12-1 UTSA and 11-2 SDSU face off in the Frisco Bowl on Tuesday as well. I have no idea how the CFP committee ranked the Aztecs 24th and kept the Roadrunners unranked after the former got blown out and the latter won during championship weekend. Regardless, there's a spot in the year-end top 25s for the winner.

          • There's a little bit of symbolism on the line for Missouri and Eliah Drinkwitz in the Armed Forces Bowl on Wednesday. The Tigers have gone 6-6, 5-5 and 6-6 the past three seasons, and while Drinkwitz has signed one of the best recruiting classes in school history, a win would also poke his tenure above .500 (and give Mizzou its first bowl win in seven years). Army is favored, however.

          • When Jim Mora's UCLA went 10-3 in 2014, it felt like the start of something pretty big. It was the Bruins' second straight 10-win season and their first top-10 finish in 16 seasons ... and it was the last upward movement of the Mora era. He won just 17 games in the next three seasons and was replaced by Chip Kelly, who proceeded to win just 10 games in his first three years. That they bounced back to 8-4 this season is a positive sign, but sometimes 9-4 sounds like more progress than 8-5, and a win over NC State in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 28 would end a positive season on a positive note.

          • The Citrus Bowl rock fight between Iowa and Kentucky on Jan. 1 has symbolic win totals on the line: An Iowa win would give Kirk Ferentz's Hawkeyes their second 11-win campaign in 12 seasons and the fourth of Ferentz's 23-year tenure, while a Kentucky win would make this Mark Stoops' second 10-win campaign. Not even Bear Bryant pulled off double-digits wins twice in Lexington.

          • The Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day pits the teams ranked seventh (Baylor) and eighth (Ole Miss) in both the AP poll and year-end CFP rankings. There's a chance the winner could rope in a top-five finish with some breaks, but top six is perhaps more likely. Either way, Baylor has never finished higher than seventh, and Ole Miss hasn't finished higher than seventh in 59 years. Someone is finishing on a historic high.

          • There's almost as much at stake for Pitt. The Panthers haven't finished in the top 10 since 1982, Dan Marino's last season in town. A win over Michigan State in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 30 would likely do the deed, but we'll see in the coming days whether they are attempting this feat with or without star quarterback (and future high draft pick) Pickett.