Intro by Doug Kezirian
The college football postseason has arrived, and with the stakes increasing for this weekend, handicappers approach these games with all betting angles on the table.
"I am a contrarian. When there's big money involved like that, that makes me very suspicious," professional bettor Ron Boyles told ESPN, addressing the millions of dollars at stake for a conference to reach the College Football Playoff. "I don't truly believe (in any funny business), but it's in the back of my mind."
"There have been times where teams have lost when all they had to do is win, and they get beat. So that goes against the conspiracy theory."
No. 4 Cincinnati is a prime example this Saturday in the American Conference Championship Game. The Bearcats (-10.5) face No. 21 Houston and will likely become the first Group of Five school ever to reach the CFP, if they remain undefeated.
"I think they're going to be tight. They know they have to win," Boyles said. "Houston can play free and easy and would love to knock them off. It would be a big feather in their cap. I think this is the best defense Houston has had in years. I like Houston a lot."
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (28-25 overall, 1-1 last week), Bill Connelly (35-29-1, 2-3), Tyler Fulghum (13-9, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (25-24-1, 2-2) and David M. Hale (17-19-1, 0-3) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape. (Records through Week 13.)
Here are their best bets for conference championship weekend games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Saturday's best bets
No. 9 Baylor Bears vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-5.5, 46.5)
Big 12 Championship, Noon ET on ABC (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
Fulghum: The Cowboys are one of a handful of teams playing this week with a legitimate shot at making the CFB Playoff. They're in this spot because of a fantastic defense that would be garnering more attention if not for the group in Athens, Georgia. This season, Mike Gundy's team is 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%), which is second-best behind only Michigan in all of FBS.
Pick: Oklahoma State -5.5
Kent State Golden Flashes (-3, 74.5) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
MAC Championship, Noon ET on ESPN (Ford Field, Detroit)
Kezirian: This is one of my favorite plays this entire season. Northern Illinois has become a nice story, going from worst to first in the MAC West after an 0-6 campaign in 2020. But how good are the Huskies? They have seven wins by one score, including three by a single point, and the defense is statistically among the nation's worst. Quarterback Rocky Lombardi is expected to return from injury, and he torched the Kent State defense in the regular-season thriller that featured 99 combined points. The Golden Flashes still won that game, and I expect their powerful offense to have similar ease in the rematch. NIU's good fortune has to run out, and while the dream season can certainly end with a MAC title, I think Kent State takes advantage of speed on the turf in ideal conditions and covers this short number.
Pick: Kent State -3, Kent State over 38.5 points (DraftKings)
Utah State Aggies vs. No. 19 San Diego State Aztecs (-6, 50)
Mountain West Championship, 3 p.m. ET (Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, Calif.)
Connelly: Utah State has been maddening this year from a betting perspective. On one hand, the Aggies seem like easy money; because expectations were extremely low to start the season, the Aggies have covered in 67% of their games (10th in FBS). But they're capable of massive over- or underachievement in a given week.
Utah State's total reliance on explosive plays on offense (and total lack of efficiency) makes the Aggies an all-or-nothing proposition -- they've averaged 38.4 points per game in nine wins and 13.3 in three losses. In their last three games, they've overachieved against the spread by 35.5 points, underachieved by 32.5, and overachieved by 9.5. Bet on one of their games, in either direction, and you could end up feeling pretty silly. But we're going to do it anyway! SDSU's defense is brilliant once again, and BYU, Boise State and Wyoming could keep the Aggies hemmed in and off the scoreboard, so could an Aztecs team that has allowed more than 21 points just twice all year.
Pick: San Diego State -6
Fortenbaugh: The problem for the Aggies is that they want to throw the football, as evidenced by the fact that Utah State currently ranks 15th in the country in passing offense. The bad news is that San Diego State is exceptional at defending the pass, especially big passing plays. The Aztecs enter Saturday's conference championship game ranked ninth in the nation in opponent yards per passing attempt (6.07). This is worth noting because a similar defense (Wyoming) went on the road and smashed Utah State 44-17 just two weeks ago despite closing as a 5.5-point underdog. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs rank top-9 in both scoring defense and opponent yards per play and things could get messy in Carson on Saturday.
Pick: San Diego State -6, under 50
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5, 50) vs. No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC Championship, 4 p.m. ET (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
Fortenbaugh: I'm just not sure how Alabama's offensive line is going to give quarterback Bryce Young the time he needs to make plays on a consistent basis against this nasty Georgia defense that ranks first nationally in both scoring (6.9 PPG) and opponent yards per play. Call it recency bias if you want, but the Crimson Tide have struggled away from Bryant-Denny Stadium all season, beating a bad Florida outfit by two points, losing outright at Texas A&M and catching a miracle at Auburn to survive in overtime last Saturday. Look for Alabama's defense to do its part in keeping this game under the total.
Pick: Georgia -6.5, under 50
No. 21 Houston Cougars at No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats (-10.5, 53)
AAC Championship, 4 p.m. ET on ABC
Fortenbaugh: All praise to head coach Luke Fickell and the sterling 12-0 record the Bearcats have achieved so far this season, but I see value in going the other way here. Cincy opened as a 12-point favorite and was quickly bet down to -10.5 for good reason: Houston is legit. After falling in the season opener to Texas Tech, Dana Holgorsen's squad ripped off 11 straight victories by an average of 22.1 points per game thanks to a top-10 scoring offense and top-20 scoring defense. All the pressure in the world will be planted firmly on Cincinnati's shoulders this Saturday. Pressure to go undefeated, pressure to make the college football playoff. Houston is coming in loose and free.
Pick: Houston +10.5
Kezirian: All the pressure is on the Bearcats, and I am unsure whether they can handle the magnitude well enough to win this game convincingly. Once the CFP committee ranked Cincinnati outside the top four, the Bearcats realized the need for style points. They could not rack them up and promptly failed to cover a few games. I think Houston is a strong team and will thrive in this pressure-free situation. Cincy is a solid squad, but I like the Cougars to hang with them and maintain scoring pace.
Pick: Houston +10.5, Houston team total over 21.5 points (-115)
No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-10.5, 43.5) vs. No. 13 Iowa Hawkeyes
Big Ten Championship, 8 p.m. ET (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
Fortenbaugh: Contrarian special here. The betting public will be heavy on Michigan after watching the Wolverines dismantle Ohio State last Saturday, so I believe there's some value in fading that excitement. Backing Iowa means you get 10.5 points in a game bookmakers have priced to be low scoring (total of just 43.5 points!) with a defense that ranks top-9 nationally in both scoring and opponent yards per play as well as 14th against the run, which is Michigan's bread and butter on offense. Remember, this game isn't at the Big House, where the Wolverines had a huge home-field advantage last Saturday. It's in Indianapolis.
Pick: Iowa +10.5
No. 15 Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 72.5) vs. No. 16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
ACC Championship, 8 p.m. ET on ABC (Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.)
Connelly: Like Utah State, Wake Forest has been frustrating from a betting perspective. The Deacons have covered by at least 11 points on five occasions, but they're just 6-5-1 overall against the spread. If their defense can make any stops whatsoever, their offense can drive an easy win. But I'm not sure they can make enough stops against Pitt. The Panthers can match them offensively -- Wake ranks seventh in points per drive and sixth in offensive SP+, while Pitt ranks ninth and seventh, respectively -- and their defense is far more proven.
There's almost no disagreement overall between SP+ and the lines this week, but SP+ gives Pitt a 6.2-point edge in this one, which is more cushion tham most games offer. Considering there could be a lot of drives in this game, that could equate to something more like a 7-9 point edge. So I lean Pitt.
Pick: Pitt -3
Hale: This is simply about matchups. Both teams ought to score some points, and neither defense is exactly a world-beater. But Pitt's versatile front seven should make for a more compelling matchup against Wake's unique option attack, while the Deacons' battered back end could have some real trouble trying to contain a dynamic receiving corps, led by Jordan Addison. In a game in which the winner might be determined by whichever defense can get just a couple of stops, Pitt seems like the logical best bet.
Pick: Pitt -3
USC Trojans at California Golden Bears (-4, 57.5), 11 p.m. ET
Rescheduled from Nov. 13 (COVID)
Hale: There's nothing quite like an 11 p.m. kickoff for a rescheduled game between two bad teams on championship weekend. This one is for all the hardcore folks who aren't ready to see the college football season end. So, let's pour a stiff drink, settle in for a long night and wait for a little Lincoln Riley magic to inspire the Trojans.
Pick: USC +4
Friday's best bets
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-2.5, 72.5) vs. UTSA Roadrunners
C-USA Championship: UTSA 49, Western Kentucky 41
Connelly: On October 9, WKU and UTSA put on a 52-46 track meet in Bowling Green, a game that featured 1,234 total yards and 67 first downs, and it could have been even more high-scoring -- both teams turned the ball over twice, and WKU missed a field goal!
For all we know, the same thing will happen when the two meet in San Antonio, but I doubt it. Since that game, UTSA games have averaged only 58.3 points, as the Roadrunner defense took a nice step forward and, in recent weeks, the offense took a step backward. (I'm pretty sure that latter point is why the line has moved a good amount in WKU's direction.) And even though WKU has one of the most exciting offenses in the country, last week's 53-21 win over Marshall was the Hilltoppers' first game since UTSA to top 69 points.
Pick: Under 72.5
Hale: Last week was, perhaps, the worst wagering week of my life. (For obvious reasons, I do not keep accurate records of these things.) But you know what they call people who give up after a bad week? Quitters! Happy, financially-secure, stress-free quitters. And there's no quitting here. Plus, the gambling gods owe us one (or 10) after what we just went through. And what better way to get back on the horse than betting on the Conference USA championship game?
This line feels like something of an overreaction to UTSA's Week 13 flub against North Texas that cost the Roadrunners an undefeated regular season -- particularly considering UTSA won the regular-season meeting on the road by six. But the Hilltoppers' D has taken a complete 180-degree turn since then, holding its last seven opponents to 21 or fewer points, while the offense is clicking on all cylinders behind QB Bailey Zappe, who is within reach of the FBS record for TD throws in a season.
We'll roll with the hot hand here and hope Zappe leaves us happy.
Pick: WKU -2.5
No. 10 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 17 Utah Utes (-3, 59.5)
Pac-12 Championship: Utah 38, Oregon 10
Fortenbaugh: The Utes smashed Oregon by 31 points just two weeks ago as 3.5-point home favorites, so they should have no problem covering -3 in Las Vegas on Friday, right? In the words of the immortal Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friends." We first need to account for the fact that Utah won't have all the lovely benefits of Rice-Eccles Stadium for this rematch, which means no elevation advantage and no edge when it comes to crowd noise. That's important because in six home games this season, the Utes went 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS while surrendering an average of just 15.8 points per game. The road, however, was not so kind to Kyle Whittingham's program, where Utah went 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS and permitted an average of 27.1 points per contest. Oregon will make adjustments while Utah will likely try to do the exact same thing it did two weeks ago, which gives the Ducks another advantage. This line should be less than three points.
Pick: Oregon +3