Putting together a winning fantasy basketball roster starts with a great draft. And to have a great draft, you need to know which players to go after and which to avoid.
So which players will out-produce their average draft position (ADP) this season? Who will take their game to another level? And which players are the biggest risk to take a step backward?
Our fantasy basketball experts André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander offer their top sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2025-26 NBA season.
Sleepers
Sleeper: A player who will far surpass his average draft position (ADP) in standard ESPN leagues.
Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs
Karabell: Castle starred in the final 25 games of last season, averaging 19.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 5.6 APG and earning Rookie of the Year honors, though this happened without PG De'Aaron Fox in the lineup. These stars can coexist in a dynamic backcourt, and for those worried about hotshot rookie Dylan Harper, the teenager seems unlikely to handle a major role anytime soon. Castle does not have to turn into an awesome shooter to reach his top 50 fantasy upside, since he contributes across the board, but there is little risk in drafts as he oddly falls outside the top 100 picks.
Alex Sarr, C, Washington Wizards
Snellings: The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft, Sarr has the highest upside from his class and was further along as a rookie than expected. When I saw him in Vegas this summer, he had the quality I look for when sophomores play: he was too good for the Summer League. He projects to a nightly double-double threat with great blocks and some outside shooting, giving him upside similar to a young Jaren Jackson Jr. when healthy.
Kevin Porter Jr., SG, Milwaukee Bucks
McCormick: In the wake of the Damian Lillard experiment, the Bucks don't have much guard depth. This pushes Porter into a meaningful on-ball role for the Bucks. The combo guard thrived in this capacity while Lillard was off the floor last season, posting an assist clip closer to a point guard, while averaging 19.3 points across his four starts for Milwaukee. Bucks coach Doc Rivers rides his starters, suggesting Porter could deliver big minutes and rousing numbers as the team's top playmaker outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Trey Murphy III, SF, New Orleans Pelicans
Alexander: Murphy is reportedly over his torn labrum and should be ready to roll in the season opener for the Pelicans. Yes, Murphy has been cursed by the New Orleans injury bug, playing in just 57 and 53 games in each of the last two seasons. But the fact he's healthy entering this one is truly exciting and his per 36 stats last season were 21.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks and 3.1 3-pointers per game. Given Zion Williamson's inability to stay healthy, Murphy's poised for a huge season if he can stay on the court.
Matas Buzelis, SF, Chicago Bulls
Moody: Buzelis enters his second season as the frontrunner to start at power forward for the Bulls. The 2024 first-round pick averaged 13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 1.1 BPG across 31 regular-season starts. He showed steady progression throughout the year, finishing strong and looking impressive in two Summer League appearances. A 6-foot-10 wing with scoring, playmaking and shot-blocking ability, Buzelis is one of my favorite fantasy sleepers.
Breakouts
Breakout: A player who will leap into or close to the upper echelon of players at his position for the first time because of a dramatic increase in production compared to his previous seasons.
Brandon Miller, SF, Charlotte Hornets
McCormick: Likely overlooked by some managers given the lack of buzz or momentum from last season, Miller was pacing for an awesome sophomore season with growth across every key category. He was lofting 11.4 3-pointers per 36 minutes while improving as a passer and slasher. Given the immense, league-winning type of upside present, Miller is my favorite player to draft so far in best ball and likely well into the redraft season.
Cooper Flagg, SF, Dallas Mavericks
Alexander: Flagg is the guy who will help Mavericks fans forget about Luka Doncic and who can help them eventually forgive Nico Harrison for trading him. The only two rookies I've ever been truly high on are Doncic and Victor Wembanyama, and while I'm not quite as high on Flagg, he should be poised for a monster season on a team that features an injury-prone Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, the latter of which will miss much of the season. Averages of 20 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, a steal, a block and 1.5 3-pointers are not out of the question for Flagg's rookie season, and I will have no problem drafting him once the big names are off the board.
Josh Giddey, SG, Chicago Bulls
Snellings: When I finished my first draft of projections, Giddey ranked out as a top-15 player in points leagues. Further iterations of the projections caused him to settle in a bit lower, more top-40, but he has top-20 as achievable upside if the Bulls feature him the way I expect they will. Over his last 25 games of last season, once the Bulls made him their go-to player, Giddey averaged 20.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 8.1 APG. He should be featured all season, so he could achieve or even surpass those numbers.
Jaylen Wells, SG, Memphis Grizzlies
Moody: The 2024 second-round pick earned a starting spot after just five games. He averaged 10.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 1.7 triples in only 25.9 MPG. Desmond Bane's offseason trade to the Magic opens the door for Wells' role to grow. Bane posted a 24.2% usage rate, 14.8 FGA and 30.2 MPG last season -- production Wells should be able to absorb. He's a strong candidate to take a major leap this season.
Kel'el Ware, C, Miami Heat
Karabell: Ware's final rookie numbers may appear pedestrian, but he barely played during the first few months. This physical center averaged 11 PPG, 8.9 RPG and 1.3 BPG over his final 49 games, his presence pushing C Bam Adebayo to power forward, where he excelled and averaged better than 20 PPG. Ware may not be asked to score much, but his defensive skills offer a high fantasy floor, and the minutes will be there. The best part is Ware seems forgotten in early ADP, going outside the top 150. It seems ridiculous that a starting center with double-double capability could last that long.
Busts
Bust: A player who is expected to be a solid starter in standard ESPN leagues but will fail to live up to those expectations this season.
Paul George, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
Moody: George is still a big name in fantasy drafts, but he carries serious bust potential heading into 2025. He just underwent another knee procedure and has played fewer than 60 games in five of the last six seasons. At 35, George's durability is a major concern, and his scoring dropped to 16.2 PPG last season, his lowest in a decade. Even if George is healthy to start camp, expecting him to hold up over 70-plus games is a risky proposition. Add in that he'll be sharing usage with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, and George's upside simply doesn't justify his likely draft cost.
Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzles
Karabell: Morant is a nightly highlight show for sure, but he continues to fall short of preseason expectations and lofty ADP because he simply does not appear in enough games. What are enough games? Well, Morant appeared in 67 games as a rookie, but it has been downhill since then. He missed nearly all the 2023-24 campaign and played in only 50 games last season. In addition, Morant's numbers dropped in 2024-25 in scoring, rebounds and assists, while his turnovers rose. He remains a valuable player, and we acknowledge the departure of Bane should aid his usage, but if he can't stay on the court he can't help us.
Ivica Zubac, C, Los Angeles Clippers
Alexander: Zubac was nearly an All-Star last season after a career year, averaging 16.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 1.1 blocks. However, he was playing a whopping 32.8 minutes per game and the Clippers not only added PF John Collins in the offseason, but also brought in Brook Lopez to spell Zubac when necessary. The Clippers have a ton of fire power on paper and Lopez has been a starter in the league for many years. While I don't see Lopez stealing Zubac's job, I also don't see him playing fewer than 20 minutes a night. Collins and Lopez simply have to eat into Zubac's minutes and I think he's going to be drafted too high, as both his minutes and production are almost guaranteed to fall. Don't reach for Zubac thinking you're getting last season's stellar edition.
Nic Claxton, C, Brooklyn Nets
McCormick: While the defensive production can prove rewarding at times with Claxton, his subpar free-throw production and limited offensive game holds him back as a fantasy option. The Nets appear ready to experiment with lots of different looks this season, not all of which will require a traditional, rim-running center. I'd rather wait and draft Alex Sarr and take on some degree of upside.
Fred VanVleet, PG, Houston Rockets
Snellings: VanVleet was the perimeter offensive engine for the Rockets -- the consistent veteran to produce when previous No. 1 option Jalen Green was inconsistent. But newly traded-for Kevin Durant will be the perimeter anchor and Alperen Sengun the interior engine, leaving VanVleet with less offensive weight to carry. In addition, the Rockets' last two top-5 draft picks, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, are both likely to have larger roles this season that could further eat into VanVleet's usage.