Fans have been clamoring for fresh faces in the College Football Playoff, and it has been delivered on a silver platter this fall -- with a heap of chaos on the side and no expansion necessary. There's no Clemson. No Oklahoma. No Ohio State.
Alabama also might be missing if the Crimson Tide don't beat Georgia and win the SEC championship -- which means this could be the first CFP without a previous national champion in the field (obviously excluding the inaugural playoff following the 2014 season).
So, it's time to embrace Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati and ... Oklahoma State? Notre Dame? The chances of the No. 6 Fighting Irish making the CFP, even amid chaos, might have taken a hit Tuesday night when committee chair Gary Barta acknowledged that coach availability could be taken into account when ranking teams. With Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, will that hurt the Irish?
Even without some of the most traditional powerhouses in the conversation, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are still seven teams with more than 0.1% chance to reach the playoff.
Now that we know where each of these teams stands heading into their respective conference championship games, here's a closer look at how four league title games will impact the committee's final top four on Selection Day:
Big Ten championship
Matchup: Michigan vs. Iowa
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: If Michigan wins, independent of other results, it has a 90% chance to reach the playoff. If Michigan loses, its chances plummet to 13%.
ESPN's FPI says: Michigan has a 77% chance to beat Iowa.
If Michigan wins: The Wolverines will head to the playoff as a one-loss Big Ten champion, most likely keeping the No. 2 spot behind No. 1 Georgia. If that's how the SEC and Big Ten games play out, Michigan would face the committee's No. 3 team.
If Iowa wins: The Big Ten is almost certainly out of the playoff because it's unrealistic to think the selection committee would promote the two-loss Hawkeyes from No. 13 into the top four. The computers might malfunction: Iowa would have zero chance in 4,790 different simulations that include the Hawkeyes winning. As good as Iowa has been on defense and special teams, it is ranked No. 98 in the country in offensive efficiency. While a win against a top-four Michigan team would rank among the best in the country, it would be the Hawkeyes' only win this season against a CFP Top 25 team. The committee would instead likely turn to one-loss Oklahoma State and one-loss Notre Dame to join Georgia and Cincinnati.
SEC championship
Matchup: Georgia vs. Alabama
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: If Georgia loses, it still has a 97% chance to make the playoff; but if Alabama loses, the Tide's chances are 40%. If Alabama wins, it has a 98% chance to reach the CFP.
ESPN's FPI says: Georgia has a 67% chance to beat Alabama.
If Georgia wins: Georgia is a lock at No. 1. The question is what happens to Alabama -- but only if there are upsets elsewhere and it's a close game. The reality is that Alabama's chances of finishing in the top four with a loss have decreased over the past month after close wins against LSU, Arkansas and now Auburn, which the Tide needed four overtimes to beat. For Alabama to gain serious consideration as a two-loss runner-up, the Tide would at least need two of three upsets in the Big 12, Big Ten and/or AAC title games. In this scenario, Alabama would be evaluated by the committee in the same way as Notre Dame -- without a conference championship. According to the committee's protocol, if a team does not win a conference title, it has to be deemed "unequivocally" one of the four best teams to make the playoff field.
If Alabama wins: It's easy peasy for the selection committee, and SEC champion Alabama finishes in the top four along with one-loss runner-up Georgia. That could cause problems for Cincinnati, which then might have to win a debate against Oklahoma State, and it definitely hurts Notre Dame's chances if Oklahoma State and Cincinnati both win their respective leagues.
Big 12 championship
Matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: If the Cowboys win, they have a 49% chance to reach the playoff.
ESPN's FPI says: Oklahoma State has a 64% chance to beat Baylor.
If Oklahoma State wins: The one-loss Big 12 champions still have to hope there are upsets above them or that Georgia beats Alabama so soundly the Tide is eliminated, making room for the Cowboys to join Cincinnati in the top four. That also could happen if Iowa wins the Big Ten or Cincinnati loses. If there are still two SEC teams on Selection Day and Cincinnati and Michigan both win, Oklahoma State needs its résumé to impress the committee enough that it wins a debate against the undefeated Bearcats. It could be very close -- and extremely controversial. Oklahoma State would have defeated Baylor twice this season, along with a top-25 Oklahoma team in a thrilling rivalry game. Cincinnati's win at Notre Dame has gone a long way in overcoming an otherwise dreadful strength of schedule that ranks No. 93 in the country. Is that, along with a win against Houston, enough to keep the Bearcats there?
If Baylor wins: As the No. 9 team in the country, Baylor would at least be considered by the selection committee for a top-four spot because it would finish with three wins against CFP top-15 opponents -- BYU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. It's also not as far of a climb as Iowa would have to make, but the reality is the two-loss Bears and the entire Big 12 likely would be eliminated. That would open the door for one-loss Notre Dame and/or possibly a two-loss Alabama, depending on how the other conference games unfold.
American Athletic Conference championship
Matchup: Cincinnati vs. Houston
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Cincinnati's chances of making the playoff sink to 1.5% with a loss, but if the Bearcats win the league, they have an 89% chance of finishing in the top four, independent of other results.
ESPN's FPI says: Cincinnati has an 83% chance to beat Houston.
If Cincinnati wins: The Bearcats are in a terrific position, but they would be even more secure for a semifinal if Georgia eliminated Alabama from the top four for good. If the SEC has two teams in the top four, Cincinnati has to still hope that its résumé stands up in the committee meeting room against one-loss Oklahoma State on Selection Day if the Cowboys win the Big 12. Or Cincinnati could cement its place with Iowa winning the Big Ten or Baylor winning the Big 12. The other less-discussed impact of Cincinnati finishing in the top four is that another team from the Group of 5 isn't guaranteed a second spot in a New Year's Six bowl. The Group of 5 gets one guaranteed spot -- and Cincinnati would be it, even in a semifinal. So, any other Group of 5 team would likely have to finish in the top 12 to earn a spot in a New Year's Six bowl. The one thing that absolutely cannot happen is ...
If Cincinnati loses: What an absolute heartbreaker for the Bearcats. To come so far and get so close ... it would be devastating to the entire Group of 5, but Cincinnati would almost certainly fall out of the top four, and it would have to hope for a New Year's Six bowl bid because it wouldn't be guaranteed. That goes to the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, and Cincinnati wouldn't be the AAC champ. Typically, teams that receive at-large bids finish in the CFP top 12.