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College football bowl projections and analysis: Shaking things up in CFP and beyond

Rivalry Week delivered in a big way, from Michigan's seismic win over Ohio State and Alabama's close call at Auburn to Oklahoma State's thriller over Oklahoma. Those results promise to shake things up in the College Football Playoff pairings and beyond.

What does it all mean for the bowl picture? Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura predict all the bowl matchups and provide analysis on the CFP picture, which teams helped or hurt their cause this weekend and the most intriguing matchups.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Oklahoma State

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Cincinnati

Bonagura's most intriguing matchup: If Cincinnati does become the first Group of 5 team to reach the playoff, it will be a fascinating case study, regardless of whom the Bearcats play. Their performance will inevitably be used -- probably unfairly -- in the future to assess how top Group of 5 teams will fare against top Power 5 teams.

Playoff breakdown

Schlabach: A wild Rivalry Weekend turned the College Football Playoff outlook upside down. Ohio State, which I previously had at No. 2, is out after losing 42-27 at Michigan on Saturday. The Wolverines, who defeated the Buckeyes for the first time in Jim Harbaugh's six seasons at Michigan, will make the playoff if they defeat Iowa in Saturday's Big Ten championship game. A victory over the Hawkeyes would probably leave Michigan as the No. 2 seed.

Georgia remains No. 1 after blasting rival Georgia Tech 45-0 on the road to reach 12-0 for the first time since its last national title win in 1980. The Bulldogs will play defending national champion Alabama in Saturday's SEC championship game in Atlanta. If the Bulldogs defeat the Crimson Tide for the first time in Kirby Smart's tenure, they'll be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. I'm guessing the Tide would be out with two losses and no conference title, especially after they looked rather ordinary in their last three SEC games, close victories over LSU, Arkansas and Auburn.

Cincinnati completed a perfect 12-0 regular season after winning 35-13 at East Carolina on Friday. The Bearcats, who are attempting to become the first team from a Group of 5 conference to make the CFP, can all but guarantee themselves a spot with a victory over Houston in Saturday's AAC championship game (4 p.m. ET, ABC and ESPN App). Oklahoma State, a 37-33 winner over Oklahoma in Saturday night's Bedlam game, is my No. 4 seed for now. The Cowboys will play Baylor in Saturday's Big 12 title game (noon ET, ABC and ESPN App).

If Cincinnati or Oklahoma State were to fall in their respective conference title games, Notre Dame or a two-loss Alabama team might have a chance to make the field. If the Crimson Tide upset the Bulldogs, the Bearcats or Cowboys would be in danger of being left out.

Bonagura: As Mark laid out, three of the spots are self-selecting at this point. Georgia is the obvious No. 1, Michigan played its way in with the impressive win against Ohio State and Cincinnati is a near lock if it beats Houston in the AAC title game to finish 13-0.

The immediate question for the next round of rankings becomes how much will the committee punish Alabama for not winning convincingly over its final three SEC games? If Alabama remains at No. 3 or even rises to No. 2, there would be somewhat of a buffer to keep it in the mix even with a close loss to Georgia. A win against Georgia would guarantee Alabama a place in the playoff.

The teams that still can reach the playoff but would need help include Notre Dame (11-1) and the winner of Baylor (10-2) vs. Oklahoma State (11-1).


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Ole Miss

Schlabach's most intriguing matchup: Two of the best offenses in the FBS would undoubtedly light up the scoreboard at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Wake Forest is third in the FBS in scoring with 42.9 points per game; Ole Miss is 18th with 35.9.The Rebels are fifth in the country in total offense with 506.7 yards per game; the Demon Deacons are ninth with 483.6. Wake Forest's Sam Hartman and Ole Miss' Matt Corral are two of the most explosive quarterbacks in the country as well. The Demon Deacons have locked up coach Dave Clawson to a long-term extension, while the Rebels are hoping Lane Kiffin sticks around. Corral has said he'll play in a bowl game, instead of opting out to prepare for the NFL draft.

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State

Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One Venture X
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Oregon

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Baylor


Team that helped its cause the most this weekend

Schlabach: Michigan. Nobody, including me, gave the Wolverines much of a chance to finally end an eight-game losing streak to Ohio State. So give Jim Harbaugh and his coaching staff credit for completely flipping the script in The Game. Michigan was the more physical and determined team and ran the ball at will against OSU's porous defense. The Wolverines ended Ohio State's 26-game winning streak in Big Ten play, and handed coach Ryan Day his first loss to a Big Ten team. Now the challenge for Michigan will be regrouping and refocusing for a very physical and stingy Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes aren't very good on offense, but they force turnovers and don't give up much on the ground.

Bonagura: Oklahoma State. After beating rival Oklahoma in Bedlam, the Cowboys have a chance to reach 12-1 with a win against Baylor in the Big 12 championship. If that happens, the Cowboys will have a strong case to get selected for the playoff.


Team that hurt its cause the most this weekend

Schlabach: Ohio State. For much of October and November, the Buckeyes looked like one of the two best teams in the FBS, behind only Georgia, while winning nine games in a row. After they blasted Michigan State 56-7 in the Horseshoe on Nov. 20, some even argued that the Buckeyes might be too explosive on offense for the Bulldogs to handle. Of course, that narrative came crashing down in the Big House on Saturday. The Buckeyes were able to mask their defensive deficiencies against lesser Big Ten opponents, but not against the Wolverines. Michigan ran for 297 yards, averaging 7.2 yards per carry, and went 5-for-8 on third down. Ryan Day put a bandage on the problems earlier this season, when he reassigned coordinator Kerry Coombs, but wholesale changes are needed in the offseason. Ohio State's defense looked soft, and upgrades are needed at linebacker and in the secondary.

Bonagura: Oklahoma. Ohio State is the obvious choice here, but Oklahoma was eliminated from playoff contention as well. There was still a path to the playoff had the Sooners beaten Oklahoma State. Instead, Oklahoma will miss out on winning the Big 12 for the first time since Lincoln Riley was named head coach.


Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Alabama-Birmingham

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Central Michigan

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Miami (Ohio)

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas-San Antonio
Schlabach: BYU vs. Texas-San Antonio

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia State vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oregon State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San Diego State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall

Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Memphis vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Old Dominion

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Boise State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Utah State vs. UTEP

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. Houston
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Houston

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Florida vs. Central Florida

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Nevada vs. SMU
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Liberty

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ball State vs. Alabama-Birmingham
Schlabach: Ball State vs. Georgia State

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Tulsa vs. Northern Illinois

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boston College vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: LSU vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Louisville


Team most disappointed with its landing spot

Bonagura: Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons could still wind up in a New Year's Six bowl, but my projection this week sees them slip to the Gator Bowl for a meeting with Kentucky. It's undoubtedly a landing spot they would have been happy with before the season, but isn't as appetizing after an 8-0 start.

Schlabach: LSU. The Tigers won a CFP national championship only two years ago. They had to upset Texas A&M 27-24 to finish 6-6 and qualify for the postseason. Tigers coach Ed Orgeron, who reached a separation agreement with the school in October, has already said he won't coach in the bowl game. Offensive line coach Brad Davis will act as interim coach. A disinterested team with an interim staff is probably not the right formula to slow down Army's triple-option offense.


SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTEP vs. Army
Schlabach: LSU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. South Carolina

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. UCLA

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Texas Tech

Dec. 29

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Central Florida
Schlabach: Boston College vs. SMU

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. Virginia
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Penn State

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. NC State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Utah

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Miami
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. Virginia

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Purdue

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas A&M

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington State

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Utah State vs. Kent State
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Kent State

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Arkansas

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD, on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Mississippi State