After one of the most incredible Rivalry Weeks in recent memory, we're down to 12 games left in college football's regular season: 10 conference title games, a rescheduled Cal-USC game in front of tens of people in Berkeley and, in another week and a half, Army-Navy.
With all due respect to Cal-USC, let's focus on the games that actually matter. With 10 conference titles and up to three College Football Playoff spots on the line -- Georgia is probably in regardless, but other spots must be clinched -- it should be an awfully exciting weekend. For each game, let's look at one particular key that could determine not only who wins, but who covers.
Conference USA championship: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-1.5, 72.5) at No. 22 UTSA Roadrunners
Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CBSSN
Caesars projection: Western Kentucky 36.3, UTSA 35.3
SP+ projection: Western Kentucky 32.7, UTSA 29.4
One key: Hilltopper haymakers. Bailey Zappe and three of his receivers followed offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Houston Baptist to WKU this past offseason, and their prolific offense turned out to be plug-and-play. Zappe has completed 70% of his passes for 4,968 yards and 52 touchdowns.
For the season, 48% of Zappe's completions have gone for 10-plus yards; when the percentage is lower than that, WKU averages 40 points per game, and when it's higher WKU averages 46.5 -- almost a touchdown more.
In these teams' first meeting, a 52-46 track-meet win by UTSA, 45% of Zappe's completions went for 10-plus yards. One more chunk play might have turned the tables, and since UTSA's offense has trailed off in recent weeks -- they've gone from averaging 39.9 points per game to 28.0 over the last three games -- the Roadrunners absolutely do not want to try to engage in another 98-point explosion.
Pac-12 championship: No. 11 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 19 Utah Utes (-3, 59.5)
Friday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC
Caesars projection: Utah 31.3, Oregon 28.3
SP+ projection: Utah 29.7, Oregon 29.0
One key: Who stays on schedule? It's hard to knock either of these offenses off schedule. Oregon's offense ranks sixth in the country in success rate and third in rushing success rate; Utah goes three-and-out just 15% of the time, second-lowest in FBS. The Utes did a far better job of staying on schedule in their 38-7 win over the Ducks two weeks ago.
Taking out sacks, Utah players rushed 46 times for 233 yards against Oregon. Oregon players ran 20 times for 85 yards. The volume of rushes reflects the game flow -- Utah led 28-0 at halftime -- but the Utes outgained the Ducks per carry and enjoyed a success rate of 50% to Oregon's 37%. Utah was able to blitz Anthony Brown freely in passing situations.
The rematch could be different, but only if the Ducks can better avoid awkward downs and distances. (Maybe don't give up a long punt return on the last play of the first half either.)
Big 12 championship: No. 8 Baylor Bears vs. No. 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-5.5, 46.5)
Saturday at noon ET on ABC
Caesars projection: OSU 26.0, Baylor 20.5
SP+ projection: OSU 25.4, Baylor 23.6
One key: Baylor ball control. In these teams' first meeting, a 24-14 OSU win, Baylor scored on a 55-yard run by Abram Smith and set up another TD on a 44-yard pass from Gerry Bohanon to Tyquan Thornton. Fifty-four other snaps averaged just 3.4 yards per play. The Bears punted on their first eight possessions.
In the five games after the loss, Baylor's offense rebounded, averaging 34 points per game and 6.8 yards per play, but a Bohanon hamstring injury left the Bears to grind out wins over Kansas State and Texas Tech. Baylor's bend-don't-break defense is excellent in its own right -- 18th in defensive SP+ -- and will make plenty of stops against an inconsistent OSU attack. But Bohanon is uncertain for Saturday's game, and while backup Blake Shapen appears solid, the Bears must figure out a way to move the chains and keep greater control of the ball.
MAC championship: Kent State Golden Flashes (-3, 73.5) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Saturday at noon ET on ESPN
Caesars projection: Kent State 38.0, Northern Illinois 35.5
SP+ projection: Kent State 35.5, Northern Illinois 30.6
One key: NIU's pass rush. On Nov. 3, Kent State beat Northern Illinois in a 52-47 thriller, scoring touchdowns of 36, 75, 27 and 39 yards in the first half alone while building an 18-point lead. NIU twice cut the deficit to five in the final quarter, but the Golden Flashes ran out the last five minutes of the game.
The Huskies simply couldn't force KSU quarterback Dustin Crum to settle. He held onto the ball for an average of 2.7 seconds before passing (his third-largest average of the season), and 27% of his passes traveled 20-plus yards downfield (second-highest). He not only completed 67% of his passes, but he averaged 16.1 yards per completion. Kent is aggressive and fast, and if you're giving them chunk plays too, well, you might score 47 points and still lose. Pressure Crum, and the Huskies could end up MAC champs.
Mountain West championship: Utah State Aggies at No. 21 San Diego State Aztecs (-6, 50)
Saturday at 3 p.m. ET on Fox
Caesars projection: San Diego State 27.8, Utah State 22.3
SP+ projection: San Diego State 30.9, Utah State 17.2
One key: Count USU's big plays. This one is a fascinating battle of knowns vs. unknowns.
Known: SDSU has possibly the best defense in the Group of Five and the best college punter known to man (Matt Araiza). The offense is as conservative as ever, but Araiza's punts are the equivalent of an extra first down or two per drive, the defense inherits a long field and forces a three-and-out, and eventually the Aztecs tilt the field and score.
Unknown: How many big plays will SDSU allow? Utah State ranks 105th in success rate, but receivers Deven Thompkins, Derek Wright and Brandon Bowling average 16.9 yards per catch. This recipe makes you volatile and inconsistent -- the Aggies' three losses came by an average of 22 points -- but it also makes you dangerous enough to win your division. How many chunk plays can they create against the best defense they've faced this year?
Sun Belt championship: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-3, 53) at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Caesars projection: Appalachian State 28.0, Louisiana 25.0
SP+ projection: Appalachian State 28.0, Louisiana 25.5
One key: Third-and-manageable. It's hard to get a read on Louisiana's capabilities, both because head coach Billy Napier took the Florida job and because the Ragin' Cajuns have battled motivation issues. They beat five teams ranked 100th or worse (per SP+) by just one score, but they also destroyed Liberty and App State by 28 points each.
Their 41-13 win over ASU was clinical. They outgained the Mountaineers by 244 yards, scored TDs on their first three possessions and never let App back into the game. They owned third downs, converting eight of 15 while holding the Mountaineers to an incredible 0-for-11. They faced only three third-and-longs (seven or more yards to go), while more than half of App State's attempts were of the long variety. If App can actually move the chains a few times, especially early, a revenge win wouldn't be out of the question.
SEC championship: No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5, 50) vs. No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on CBS
Caesars projection: Georgia 28.5, Alabama 22.0
SP+ projection: Georgia 30.3, Alabama 23.0
One key: Bryce Young's sack rate. After averaging 42.7 points per game against its first six power conference opponents, Alabama averaged only 24.0 points (in regulation) against LSU, Arkansas and Auburn. Opponents are doing a better job of taking away quarterback Bryce Young's quickest reads and making him freeze a bit: Young went from taking sacks on 5.6% of his dropbacks and throwing 30.3% of his passes at or behind the line to 9.9% and 18.8%, respectively. He's completing more downfield passes, but at a price.
Georgia has the best defense in the country. The Dawgs harass quarterbacks without blitzing (ninth in sack rate, 80th in blitzes per dropback) and swallow up short passes. Auburn held Young to 4.9 yards per dropback last week, and Georgia's pass defense is quite a bit better than Auburn's. Can the Tide make enough plays to keep up?
AAC championship: No. 24 Houston Cougars at No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats (-10.5, 53.5)
Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on ABC
Caesars projection: Cincinnati 32.0, Houston 21.5
SP+ projection: Cincinnati 32.6, Houston 20.3
One key: Desmond Ridder vs. a dynamite pass rush. The rules are pretty simple when facing Cincinnati's offense: 1) If you can't pressure Ridder, you're toast, and 2) almost no one can pressure Ridder. The Bearcats rank third in FBS in pressure rate allowed (19%) -- when opponents have generated 15% pressure or less, Cincinnati has averaged 46 points per game; when they have generated more than that, the Bearcats have averaged only 35 PPG.
Houston's pass rush is dynamite. The Cougars rank third in pressure rate (40%) and sixth in sacks per dropback (10%), and it has driven their leap from 67th to 15th in defensive SP+. The Cougars' offense is one-dimensional (they can't run consistently) and might not be able to do a ton of damage against a dominant Cincinnati D. But if the Coogs can frustrate Ridder and create negative plays, they could stick around for quite a while.
Big Ten championship: No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (-10.5, 43.5) vs. No. 16 Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on Fox
Caesars projection: Michigan 27.0, Iowa 16.5
SP+ projection: Michigan 27.4, Iowa 16.5
One key: Easy points. The Wolverines and Hawkeyes enjoy plenty of Big Ten-esque similarities. They are both driven by outstanding defenses -- Iowa ranks fourth in defensive SP+ and ninth in points allowed per drive, while Michigan ranks seventh and 11th, respectively -- that don't allow big plays, and they both boast spectacular special teams units (punters, especially) that create field position advantages.
Michigan is favored in this game (and is one step away from the CFP) because the Wolverines' offense has been dramatically more consistent than Iowa's. They bullied Ohio State's defense to the tune of 297 rushing yards last week, but they still might not have beaten the Buckeyes if not for gains for 37, 34, 31 and 24 through the air. If Iowa can limit the big passes and turn this into a punts-and-field-position rock fight -- or if the Hawkeyes match with a couple of big gainers of their own -- they could not only cover but win outright.
ACC championship: No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 72.5) vs. No. 18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC
Caesars projection: Pittsburgh 37.8, Wake Forest 34.8
SP+ projection: Pittsburgh 35.7, Wake Forest 29.5
One key: Negative plays. Of the 23 games with an over/under of 70-plus this year, only four have hit the over. But seven Pitt games and six of the last nine Wake games have hit 70 or more. The Panthers and Demon Deacons are tied for the fifth-most average drives per game, and they rank ninth and seventh, respectively, in points per drive. (Wake superpowers the fireworks by also ranking 83rd in points allowed per drive.) In four combined losses, these teams scored 39.3 points per game. In losses!
That makes basically every stop made in this game the equivalent of a service break in tennis. Pitt is the favorite because the Panthers make far more stops than the Deacs (33rd in defensive SP+, 18th in points allowed per drive), and they are particularly good at shoving opponents backward -- they're 12th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and fourth in sack rate. Wake almost never moves backward, but the team that does so the most will probably lose.