Intro by Doug Kezirian
No. 4 Ohio State has won eight straight games and seemingly found its offensive groove since losing to No. 3 Oregon in September. The Buckeyes (-19) have another opportunity to demonstrate that potency against a quality opponent in No. 7 Michigan State.
"I made the number 23," South Point casino sportsbook director Chris Andrews told ESPN. "Ohio State hasn't been that consistent. I have to admit that, but I do not think Michigan State is all that good."
The Spartans entered the year with a regular season win total of just four and have surpassed all expectations with a 9-1 record and 7-2 ATS mark against FBS opponents.
"Michigan State is one of those teams that seems to overachieve every year," Andrews said.
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (24-23 overall, 1-1 last week), Bill Connelly (30-24-1, 3-2), Tyler Fulghum (12-9, 1-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (21-20-1, 0-2-1) and David M. Hale (16-14-1, 2-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 12 of the season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Thursday's best bets
Louisville Cardinals (-19.5, 60.5) at Duke Blue Devils, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Kezirian: Duke has been pretty pitiful this season, losing six straight games and covering just one during the skid. For whatever reason, David Cutcliffe has been unable to push the right buttons on offense and the Blue Devils cannot seem to get out of their own way. Defensively, they've allowed at least 45 points in four straight games and rank in the bottom tier in several categories. Meanwhile, Louisville has had some impressive wins, including last week's 41-3 beatdown of Syracuse, and needs this game in order to become bowl eligible, rather than waiting for the finale against 7-3 Kentucky. Given the game is in prime time and on national television, I do not expect the Cardinals to overlook this poor opponent.
Pick: Louisville first half -10.5, Louisville -19.5
Friday's best bets
No. 19 San Diego State Aztecs (-10.5, 41) at UNLV Rebels, 11:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: College football is the ultimate small-sample sport, and it's always difficult to figure out if what you're seeing is a trend or a brief change in form before inevitable regression. Case in point: UNLV has looked downright solid the past two weeks! The Rebels were unlucky to start 0-8 -- there were five one-score losses in those eight defeats -- and after probably their worst performance of the year (a 51-20 loss to Nevada), they responded with their two best, beating New Mexico and Hawaii by a combined 58-30. It's not a surprise that the books are starting to show them a little bit of respect, nearly naming them a single-digit underdog against a ranked SDSU.
SP+ still gives SDSU an 18.9-point advantage, however, and that's after dropping the Aztecs eight spots after what it deemed a semi-lucky win over Nevada. UNLV's Charles Williams exploded for 266 rushing yards and three touchdowns last week, but SDSU ranks 16th in rushing success rate allowed and sixth in overall points per drive allowed. The Aztecs offense is paltry, as always, but I would be surprised if UNLV scored more than 10-14 points. SP+ projects a 32.5 to 13.6 advantage for SDSU, and even if the Aztecs get stuck in the mid-20s, that's still a likely cover.
Pick: SDSU -10.5
Saturday's best bets
No. 7 Michigan State Spartans at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-19, 67), Noon ET on ABC
Connelly: I understand why we might be expecting a large point total here. Two of MSU's past three games have hit 69 points or higher, and Ohio State-Purdue went for 90 last week. But in the Buckeyes' three matchups against SP+ top-40 teams, their games have averaged 54.3; Michigan State's three have averaged 56. SP+ (which is at 53% for the year on over/unders) projects a 60.4-point total, and neither team operates at a high enough tempo to worry about adjusting for that.
There's obviously track-meet potential here with the sheer number of playmakers involved, but there's just as much potential for a lower-scoring affair -- an inefficient but explosive Michigan State offense struggling to damage an Ohio State defense that has been mostly awesome over the last two months and an Ohio State offense settling for field goals against a solid, bend-don't-break defense. I broke down the matchup here.
Pick: Under 67
Fortenbaugh: This total has dropped from 72.5 at its opening price down to 67, but I'm fading the move and playing the over. How, exactly, is Michigan State going to slow down the Buckeyes? Ohio State ranks first in the nation in scoring (46.3 PPG) and sixth in passing while Sparty ranks dead last in college football in pass defense. Ideally, MSU would feature a heavy dose of running back Kenneth Walker III in an attempt to control the clock while keeping the Buckeyes offense on the sidelines, but it's only a matter of time before Ohio State grabs a two-score lead and Michigan State is forced to throw. That's not necessarily a terrible thing, as Ohio State currently ranks 108th in the country in pass defense.
Pick: Over 67
Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (-1.5, 54.5), Noon ET
Kezirian: This is a wager against Florida State more than anything. The Seminoles just pulled off an incredible comeback over in-state rival Miami and now have to travel to Chestnut Hill, before facing another in-state rival in Florida. I already do not think much of this FSU squad, so taking BC is the easy call for such a giant FSU flat spot. Plus, temperatures are forecast in the 30s and 40s, so perhaps that makes the road trip that much more miserable for the Seminoles.
Pick: Boston College -1.5
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Georgia State Panthers (-16.5, 65.5), 2 p.m. ET on ESPN3
Connelly: I feel like this point total is an overreaction to GSU's 42-40 win over Coastal Carolina last week. Only three of 10 GSU games have topped 61 points this year, and while ASU was an overs machine early in the year, its defense has improved just enough that only one of its last four games has gone over 55. Georgia State should win this comfortably (SP+ says GSU 39.2, ASU 22.0), but odds are good that it stays below 65.5.
Pick: Under 65.5
No. 21 Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-21, 59), 3:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: With Auburn and the Iron Bowl waiting, I'm not interested in laying three touchdowns with the Tide knowing the backdoor cover is wide open in Saturday's contest against Arkansas. I am, however, very much intrigued by laying 12.5 points with Alabama in the first half against the Razorbacks. Alabama ranks second in the country in both first-half scoring (25.9 PPG) and first-half scoring at home (30.8 PPG), as well as 10th in first-half scoring defense (8.1 PPG). Meanwhile, Arkansas ranks 90th in first-half scoring and 102nd in first-half scoring on the road. Speaking of the road, the Razorbacks have only played three true road games this season, going 1-2 with a -41 point differential.
Pick: Alabama -12.5 first half
Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5, 42), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Hale: We know the story on Wisconsin; it was a rough start, but the problems have been solved and the Badgers are back to being a top-25 team and the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten West. Yes, Wisconsin has reeled off five straight wins. And sure, the once anemic offense has tallied 87 points the past two games. And OK, Braelon Allen had no trouble filling the void left by Chez Mellusi last week. We're still not sold. Has Graham Mertz turned a corner? It's easy enough to put up numbers against Rutgers and Northwestern, but in his other eight games this season he threw exactly three TD passes to go with seven picks.
Meanwhile, Nebraska's defense is perhaps the nation's most underrated unit. While the Huskers have watched one game after another slip away in agonizing fashion, the defense has actually been quite good -- 16th nationally in points allowed per drive and fourth in explosive play rate. Admittedly, Wisconsin's D has been better, but look at the QBs the Badgers have faced: Jack Coan, Jack Plummer, Spencer Petras, Andrew Marty -- not exactly a murderers' row. More specifically, they're not exactly Lamar Jackson either. Only Army's Tyhier Tyler had more than five designed runs against the Badgers, while Nebraska's Adrian Martinez presents a genuine dual threat in the backfield.
Look, no one should have to spend three and a half hours of their Saturday watching Nebraska slowly kill their hopes and dreams. Indeed, it's punishment for shoplifting in some parts of the country. But at some point, the luck has to turn for Scott Frost, and we're betting that point is Saturday. And if it's not, at least Nebraska fans have a whole other season of this to look forward to in 2022.
Pick: Nebraska +9.5
Old Dominion Monarchs at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3.5, 50.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Hale: The Monarchs have shown some signs of life in the past month, covering their last three against the spread and possibly working their way into bowl eligibility if they can win out after a woeful 1-6 start. But is this recent run of success a mark of legitimate progress or something of a fluke? The wins over Louisiana Tech and Florida International are hardly signature victories, and last week's 30-16 upset of FAU came via three field goals, two safeties and a returned two-point try. Good luck repeating that performance.
MTSU, on the other hand, is probably a bit better than its 5-5 record suggests. All five losses were on the road, and the offense has topped 34 points in five of its last seven after switching QBs from Bailey Hockman.
FPI has the Blue Raiders as a nearly 11-point favorite in this one, and they've covered their last four at home.
Pick: MTSU -3.5
East Carolina Pirates (-4, 46.5) at Navy Midshipmen, 3:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: ECU was a little bit lucky to beat Memphis last week. The Pirates were outgained 6.4 yards per play to 4.9, recovered both of the game's fumbles and survived six sacks to win 30-29 in overtime. That said, they are still clearly on an upward trajectory. They've won three in a row and have risen from 93rd to 80th in SP+ over the last month. Navy has technically improved, too, but only from 123rd in September to 112th now.
SP+, then, projects the Pirates with a 10.2-point advantage overall. There could absolutely be a Navy effect here, where the Midshipmen cut the number of possessions down to a minimum with their option offense and slow tempo, but against teams in ECU's general ratings range (Air Force, UCF, Memphis, Tulsa), they've been outscored by an average of seven points or so. SP+ tends to fare the best in games in which it disagrees with the spread by about 3-6 points, and while those games have been far more difficult to come by this year, this one is in that range. Go Pirates.
Pick: ECU -4
Marshall Thundering Herd (-15, 62) at Charlotte 49ers, 3:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: Marshall has played five teams ranked 100th or worse in SP+ and is 5-0 with an average score of 40-10. Charlotte is 113th. Charlotte has played only one team ranked higher than 84th (No. 55 WKU) and lost 45-13. Marshall is 39th. Both teams still have things to play for -- Marshall is still involved in the C-USA East race, and Charlotte needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility -- but SP+ projects a 20.1-point advantage for the Herd, and that sounds closer to reality than 15.
Pick: Marshall -15
UCLA Bruins (-3, 65.6) at USC Trojans, 4 p.m. ET
Hale: It's been a miserable year at USC -- or, as miserable as a year can be when you're going to college in Los Angeles, anyway. The Trojans fired their head coach. They've lost five games. They struggled against woeful Arizona. They lost their two biggest rivalry games of the year so far -- to Stanford (the game that got Clay Helton fired) and Notre Dame. QB Kedon Slovis is coming off his worst game as a college player in a 31-16 loss to Arizona State. So, why would anyone be optimistic about USC's chances this week? Well, for one, ESPN's FPI actually thinks USC should be favored -- by about two points -- as opposed to the three-point 'dog it actually is. And it's not as if UCLA has been a juggernaut this season either. In fact, the Bruins lost to Arizona State and Utah, just as USC did, by wider margins. UCLA snapped a two-game skid last week, but only after flubbing its way through a dismal first half against Colorado, a team USC had no problems beating handily. USC has also won five of the last six against UCLA, if history offers much of a guide. So, yes, it's a bad year for USC. But as always in Southern California, there's a bit of sunshine waiting around the corner. It comes this week for the Trojans.
Pick: USC +3
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (-36.5, 64.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: At the paltry average of just 15.1 points per game, Vanderbilt has the distinction of entering Saturday's contest with Ole Miss as the country's 128th-ranked scoring offense ... out of 130 programs. No wonder the over has cashed in just 10 of Vandy's last 36 road games. As for Ole Miss, the Rebels find themselves in a unique scheduling spot. Fresh off a monster upset win over Texas A&M and one week away from their yearly Egg Bowl showdown with in-state rival Mississippi State. I wouldn't be surprised if Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin called off the dogs and ran out the clock in the second half in order to escape as healthy as possible before next week's marquee matchup.
Pick: Under 64.5
Wyoming Cowboys at Utah State Aggies (-6, 52.5), 8 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: This line has moved from Utah State -7 to Utah State -6 despite the fact that the 8-2 Aggies -- winners of five straight -- are hosting an opponent in Wyoming that has dropped five of its last six outings. So what gives? For starters, styles make fights. Utah State's 15th-ranked passing attack will be seriously challenged Saturday by a Cowboys defense that ranks fourth in the country against the pass and is surrendering an average of just 22 points per matchup. Additionally, Utah State's 66th-ranked run defense should allow Wyoming the opportunity to move the ball via the ground, thus keeping its defense fresh and rested on the sideline.
Pick: Wyoming +6
New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos (-27, 48), 9 p.m. EST
Fulghum: Very simply this is a fade of the Lobos. New Mexico is 1-9 ATS this season, the worst record in all of FBS.
Pick: Boise State -27
Colorado State Rams (-2.5, 54) at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, 11 p.m. ET
Kezirian: As we have expressed in this space, strange things happen on the islands, and Hawai'i is a strong home underdog. The Bows are 2-0-1 ATS this season in that role, but if you caught an early number against San Diego State, they've covered all three. I also do not think much of Colorado State. The Rams have lost four straight games and cannot qualify for a bowl game. I expect them to approach this game as a mini-vacation and Hawai'i to get another cover as a home underdog.
Pick: Hawai'i +2.5