By this point in the season, there are basically two types of top-10 teams: the teams that are legitimate top-5 or top-10 teams on paper, and lower-rated teams that just haven't lost much yet. Sometimes when teams from each of these groups play each other, you get a rare contradiction -- a huge, high-consequence battle of top-10 teams ... with a huge spread.
No. 4 Ohio State (the former example above) hosts No. 7 Michigan State (the latter) on Saturday in part one of the Buckeyes' two-week prove-it run. They have won eight straight since their 35-28 home loss to Oregon on October 11. They are excellent and increasingly well-rounded on paper, ranking second overall in SP+ (first on offense, second on special teams and 14th on defense).
Of their eight straight victories, however, only two came against teams currently ranked in the SP+ top 50: No. 15 Penn State and No. 25 Nebraska. They beat each team by only nine. To reach the College Football Playoff, they'll likely have to beat the team currently ranked 18th in SP+ (Michigan State), fifth (at Michigan) and, in the Big Ten championship, fourth (Wisconsin). Even an excellent team might go only 2-1 in that span, but because of the loss to the Ducks, the Buckeyes probably have to go 3-0.
Saturday's projections suggest good things about their chances. SP+ projects the Buckeyes to win by an average of 17.1 with an 84% win probability, and Caesars by William Hill goes even further, currently listing Ohio State as a 19-point favorite over the Spartans.
This is rarefied air. Over the past 40 years, only 10 top-10 teams have been underdogs by 18 or more points, and the favored teams in these games were the best of the best.
Top 10 teams favored by 18-plus over another top-10 team since 1980:
1995: No. 2 Nebraska (-23.5) vs. No. 8 Kansas State, won 49-25
1995: No. 1 Nebraska (-25) vs. No. 10 Kansas, won 41-3
1996: No. 4 Nebraska (-18) vs. No. 5 Colorado, won 17-12
1999: No. 1 Florida State (-18) vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech, won 41-35
2000: No. 4 Florida State (-19.5) vs. No. 10 Clemson, won 33-14
2013: No. 3 Florida State (-21.5) vs. No. 7 Miami, won 41-14
2016: No. 1 Alabama (-18) vs. No. 6 Texas A&M, won 33-14
2019: No. 2 Ohio State (-20.5) vs. No. 9 Penn State, won 28-17
2020: No. 3 Ohio State (-21) vs. No. 9 Indiana, won 42-35
2020: No. 1 Alabama (-18.5) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame, won 31-14
That's three Nebraska teams from the mid-1990s (when they won shares of three national titles in four years), two turn-of-the-century Florida State teams (when they won one title and wrapped up their run of 14 straight top-five finishes), the brilliant, title-winning 2013 FSU team, two Alabama teams from a run of three titles in six years, and each of the last two Ohio State teams, both of which went unbeaten in the regular season.
As you would expect, the favored teams went 10-0 in these games. Average line: -20.4. Average score: 43-18. Only four covered, but three others nearly did. Only two games were decided by one score. The teams they vanquished were mostly quite good -- eight of them finished ranked, five in the top 10 -- but the lines were the lines for a reason.
So it's a foregone conclusion that the Buckeyes will roll, then? Not necessarily. They are indeed only a 17-point favorite, per the generally Buckeye-friendly SP+, and if we open the umbrella wider to include top-10 teams favored by at least 17 over other top-10ers, we find more uncertain results.
Top 10 teams favored by -17 or -17.5 over another top-10 team since 1980:
1986: No. 3 Oklahoma (-17.5) vs. No. 9 Arkansas, won 42-8
1988: No. 3 Miami (-17) vs. No. 8 Arkansas, won 18-16
1991: No. 1 FSU (-17.5) vs. No. 10 Syracuse, won 46-14
1992: No. 3 FSU (-17) vs. No. 6 Florida, won 45-24
1994: No. 1 Florida (-17) vs. No. 6 Auburn, lost 36-33
1998: No. 2 Kansas State (-17.5) vs. No. 10 Texas A&M, lost 36-33
2001: No. 2 Florida (-17.5) vs. No. 5 Tennessee, lost 34-32
2016: No. 6 Ohio State (-17) vs. No. 9 Nebraska, won 62-3
This list includes more dynastic teams -- Barry Switzer's Oklahoma program when in the middle of a 33-3 run from 1985-87, a Miami team from the first "The U" era, two more Florida States, two of Steve Spurrier's Florida teams, the greatest Kansas State team ever and another recent Ohio State team. But the favorites in this range went only 5-3 overall and 4-4 against the spread.
In all, history backs up the current projections. The favored teams have won 15 of 18 -- an 83% win percentage almost identical to Ohio State's aforementioned 84% win probability -- and the three losses were all famous and memorable; Auburn forcing five turnovers and scoring with 30 seconds left to silence a record crowd in the Swamp in 1994, Sirr Parker's late-game heroics to beat a nearly title-bound Kansas State in the 1998 Big 12 championship and Travis Stephens' 226-yard rushing performance that, with help from a late two-point conversion stop, knocked Florida from 2001 title consideration. We either get to probably watch a national title contender assert itself, or we get to watch a famous upset. Aesthetically, we win either way.
You don't bet on aesthetics, however.
Giving this Ohio State team the benefit of the doubt earned by the 2016, 2019 and 2020 teams referenced above almost seems presumptuous. It's not like the Buckeyes can't be that good, it's just that they haven't quite proven it yet. They will get a chance to do so in these next two to three games.
Red zone offense is the most likely factor to determine whether Ohio State covers or whether MSU can keep things uncomfortably close.
The Spartans have gone full-on bend, don't break this season on defense, and it has reaped dividends. They rank just 70th in success rate allowed, and they force three-and-outs on just 21% of opponents' drives (122nd in FBS), but they rank 15th in explosive play rate allowed (rushes of 12-plus yards, passes of 16-plus yards). They force you to take small nibbles down the field, and they make life extremely difficult as you get closer to their end zone. They rank 10th in points allowed per scoring opportunity (first downs inside the defense's 40) and seventh in both red zone touchdown rate (43%) and goal-to-go touchdown rate (52%).
Overall, the Ohio State offense has done just fine in these categories. The Buckeyes rank ninth in points per scoring opportunity, and they're a decent 42nd in red zone TD rate (66%) and 37th in goal-to-go TD rate (82%). But their three closest games (Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State) were all close because of blown opportunities.
Against Oregon, the Buckeyes had first downs at the Oregon 34 and 33 on their opening two drives but turned the ball over on downs once and punted on fourth-and-11 once. They got stuffed on a fourth-and-2 from the Oregon 39 late in the second quarter, ran out of time in the first half with the ball at Oregon's 18 and failed again on fourth down from Oregon's 8 in the third quarter. That Oregon led for most of the game makes it feel like the Ducks controlled matters, but Ohio State outgained them by 107 yards and averaged 7.2 yards per play. They lost because they failed miserably in situational football.
Against Penn State, the Buckeyes controlled matters once again. They outgained the Nittany Lions 6.9 yards per play to 4.9 and finished all but one full drive in PSU territory. But they settled for four field goals and turned the ball over on downs from the Penn State 13 in the third quarter. They needed a defensive touchdown to give them cushion in a 33-24 win that the offense itself couldn't quite put away.
Against Nebraska in Lincoln the next week, it was the same story. OSU outgained the Huskers in terms of yardage (+134) and yards per play (+0.3) and finished 10 drives in Nebraska territory (Nebraska finished only five in OSU territory). But they settled for four field goals once again, threw a red zone interception, punted from the Nebraska 36 and turned the ball over on downs at the Nebraska 43. They survived 26-17 because of two missed Nebraska field goals and a brilliant, 75-yard catch and run by Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- the best way to convert in the red zone is to avoid it altogether! -- but it was more difficult than it needed to be.
This past week, against a Purdue defense that is solid (37th in defensive SP+) but not as strong as the ones above, the Buckeyes ignited, scoring touchdowns on eight of 10 drives and settling for only one field goal. They scored via both big plays -- a 57-yard run by TreVeyon Henderson, a 51-yard run by Garrett Wilson, touchdown passes of 20, 21 and 24 yards -- and short red zone plunges. They averaged 9.0 yards per play, and C.J. Stroud completed 31 of 38 passes for 361 yards.
They were almost perfect, and if that's what we see moving forward, Ohio State will likely both cover on Saturday, win out over the next three weeks and score a spot in the College Football Playoff, just as the last two Buckeyes teams have. But Michigan State ranks 18th in defensive SP+ and thrives in exactly the area that has bitten OSU at times. The Spartans rode the "limit big plays and dominate the red zone on both sides of the ball" recipe to a win over Michigan three weeks ago, and they're one more upset away from taking over as Big Ten East favorite. Can the Buckeyes put this one away when they get the chance -- and live up to sportsbooks' lofty respect -- or will they let another opportunistic opponent hang around?